Transport and dispersion during wintertime particulate matter episodes in the San Joaquin Valley, California

Data analysis and modeling were performed to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of wintertime transport and dispersion processes and the impact of these processes on particulate matter (PM) concentrations in the California San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Radar wind profiler (RWP) and radio acoustic sounding system (RASS) data collected from 18 sites throughout Central California were used to estimate hourly mixing heights for a 3-month period and to create case studies of high-resolution diagnostic wind fields, which were used for trajectory and dispersion analyses. Data analyses show that PM episodes were characterized by an upper-level ridge of high pressure that generally produced light winds through the entire depth of the atmospheric boundary layer and low mixing heights compared with nonepisode days. Peak daytime mixing heights during episodes were -400 m above ground level (agl) compared with -800 m agl during nonepisodes. These episode/nonepisode differences were observed throughout the SJV. Dispersion modeling indicates that the range of influence of primary PM emitted in major population centers within the SJV ranged from -15 to 50 km. Trajectory analyses revealed that little intrabasin pollutant transport occurred among major population centers in the SJV; however, interbasin transport from the northern SJV and Sacramento regions into the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) was often observed. In addition, this analysis demonstrates the usefulness of integrating RWP/RASS measurements into data analyses and modeling to improve the understanding of meteorological processes that impact pollution, such as aloft transport and boundary layer evolution.     

Designing and Managing the San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study

The field measurement phase of the San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study, which was conducted in the summer of 1990, was the largest and most sophisticated study of its kind ever conducted in this country. The San Joaquin Valley has the nation’s second worst overall air quality problem and is using the study results to conduct regional modeling to refine its control strategies. The study began in 1985 and will continue into the mid-1990s. The origins of the study, and the manner in which it is being funded and administered, reflect a unique and highly successful collaboration among several levels of government and the private sector. The temporary organizational structure formed to manage the study sets an interesting precedent for how political-level leaders can work effectively with the scientific community to conduct a long term technical study.     

Future Impacts of Distributed Power Generation on Ambient Ozone and Particulate Matter Concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley of California

ABSTRACT

Distributed power generation—electricity generation that is produced by many small stationary power generators distributed throughout an urban air basin—has the potential to supply a significant portion of electricity in future years. As a result, distributed generation may lead to increased pollutant emissions within an urban air basin, which could adversely affect air quality. However, the use of combined heating and power with distributed generation may reduce the energy consumption for space heating and air conditioning, resulting in a net decrease of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. This work used a systematic approach based on land-use geographical information system data to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of distributed generation emissions in the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin of California and simulated the potential air quality impacts using state-of-the-art three-dimensional computer models. The evaluation of the potential market penetration of distributed generation focuses on the year 2023. In general, the air quality impacts of distributed generation were found to be small due to the restrictive 2007 California Air Resources Board air emission standards applied to all distributed generation units and due to the use of combined heating and power. Results suggest that if distributed generation units were allowed to emit at the current Best Available Control Technology standards (which are less restrictive than the 2007 California Air Resources Board standards), air quality impacts of distributed generation could compromise compliance with the federal 8-hr average ozone standard in the region.

IMPLICATIONS The San Joaquin Valley is a fast growing region that demands increasing power generation to sustain the economic development, and at the same time it is one of the worst polluted areas in the United States. Hence, the region demands alternatives that minimize the air quality impacts of power generation. This paper addresses the air quality impacts of distributed generation of power, an alternative to central power generation that can potentially reduce greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions throughout the United States.     

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley,USA

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM_2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest under growth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM_2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources.

Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using “as-planned” (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM_2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event.

Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM_2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).     

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. Implications: The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).     

Dynamic modeling of organophosphate pesticide load in surface water in the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

The hydrology, sediment, and pesticide transport components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated on the northern San Joaquin Valley watershed of California. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for monthly stream flow and sediment load ranged from 0.49 to 0.99 over the watershed during the study period of 1992-2005. The calibrated SWAT model was applied to simulate fate and transport processes of two organophosphate pesticides of diazinon and chlorpyrifos at watershed scale. The model generated satisfactory predictions of dissolved pesticide loads relative to the monitoring data. The model also showed great success in capturing spatial patterns of dissolved diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads according to the soil properties and landscape morphology over the large agricultural watershed. This study indicated that curve number was the major factor influencing the hydrology while pesticide fate and transport were mainly affected by surface runoff and pesticide application and in the study area.     

Economic Assessment of the Effects of Air Pollution on Agricultural Crops in the San Joaquin Valley

Physical and economic impacts of 1978 ambient levels of ozone and sulfur dioxide on 33 crops In the San Joaquin Valley are estimated. The field data regression approach Is used and evaluated for estimating yield losses. The effects of alternative air pollution measures and regression functional forms are evaluated. An economic model is employed that accounts for both farm and market responses to yield improvements from reduced air pollution. Economic damages were estimated to exceed $100 million in 1978 with the biggest losers being the producers of cotton and producers and consumers of grapes, a crop that has heretofore been Ignored in agricultural assessments of pollution damage.     

Ozone formation in California's San Joaquin Valley: a critical assessment of modeling and data needs

Data from the 1990 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study/Atmospheric Utility Signatures, Predictions, and Experiments (SJVAQS/AUSPEX) field program in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suggest that both urban and rural areas would have difficulty meeting an 8-hr average O3 standard of 80 ppb. A conceptual model of O3 formation and accumulation in the SJV is formulated based on the chemical, meteorological, and tracer data from SJVAQS/AUSPEX. Two major phenomena appear to lead to high O3 concentrations in the SJV: (1) transport of O3 and precursors from upwind areas (primarily the San Francisco Bay Area, but also the Sacramento Valley) into the SJV, affecting the northern part of the valley, and (2) emissions of precursors, mixing, transport (including long-range transport), and atmospheric reactions within the SJV responsible for regional and urban-scale (e.g., down-wind of Fresno and Bakersfield) distributions of O3. Using this conceptual model, we then conduct a critical evaluation of the meteorological model and air quality model. Areas of model improvements and data needed to understand and properly simulate O3 formation in the SJV are highlighted.     

Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO₂, temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO₂ concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by ±10% and ±20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO₂ concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO₂ concentration changes.     

Organic marker compounds in surface soils of crop fields from the San Joaquin Valley fugitive dust characterization study

Fugitive dust from the erosion of arid and fallow land, after harvest and during agricultural activities, can at times be the dominant source of airborne particulate matter. In order to assess the source contributions to a given site, chemical mass balance (CMB) modeling is typically used together with source-specific profiles for organic and inorganic constituents. Yet, the mass balance closure can be achieved only if emission profiles for all major sources are considered. While a higher degree of mass balance closure has been achieved by adding individual organic marker compounds to elements, ions, EC, and organic carbon (OC), major source profiles for fugitive dust are not available. Consequently, neither the exposure of the population living near fugitive dust sources from farm land, nor its chemical composition is known. Surface soils from crop fields are enriched in plant detritus from both above and below ground plant parts; therefore, surface soil dust contains natural organic compounds from the crops and soil microbiota. Here, surface soils derived from fields growing cotton, safflower, tomato, almonds, and grapes have been analyzed for more than 180 organic compounds, including natural lipids, saccharides, pesticides, herbicides, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH). The major result of this study is that selective biogenically derived organic compounds are suitable markers of fugitive dust from major agricultural crop fields in the San Joaquin Valley. Aliphatic homologs exhibit the typical biogenic signatures of epicuticular plant waxes and are therefore indicative of fugitive dust emissions and mechanical abrasion of wax protrusions from leaf surfaces. Saccharides, among which α- and β-glucose, sucrose, and mycose show the highest concentrations in surface soils, have been proposed to be generic markers for fugitive dust from cultivated land. Similarly, steroids are strongly indicative of fugitive dust. Yet, triterpenoids reveal the most pronounced distribution differences for all types of cultivated soils examined here and are by themselves powerful markers for fugitive dust that allow differentiation between the types of crops cultivated. PAHs are also found in some surface soils, as well as persistent pesticides, e.g., DDE, Fosfall, and others.     

Wintertime vertical variations in particulate matter (PM) and precursor concentrations in the San Joaquin Valley during the California Regional Coarse PM/Fine PM Air Quality Study

Air quality monitoring was conducted at a rural site with a tower in the middle of California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and at elevated sites in the foothills and mountains surrounding the SJV for the California Regional PM10/ PM2.5 Air Quality Study. Measurements at the surface and n a tower at 90 m were collected in Angiola, CA, from December 2000 through February 2001 and included hourly black carbon (BC), particle counts from optical particle counters, nitric oxide, ozone, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and direction. Boundary site measurements were made primarily using 24-hr integrated particulate matter (PM) samples. These measurements were used to understand the vertical variations of PM and PM precursors, the effect of stratification in the winter on concentrations and chemistry aloft and at the surface, and the impact of aloft-versus-surface transport on PM concentrations. Vertical variations of concentrations differed among individual species. The stratification may be important to atmospheric chemistry processes, particularly nighttime nitrate formation aloft, because NO2 appeared to be oxidized by ozone in the stratified aloft layer. Additionally, increases in accumulation-mode particle concentrations in the aloft layer during a fine PM (PM2.5) episode corresponded with increases in aloft nitrate, demonstrating the likelihood of an aloft nighttime nitrate formation mechanism. Evidence of local transport at the surface and regional transport aloft was found; transport processes also varied among the species. The distribution of BC appeared to be regional, and BC was often uniformly mixed vertically. Overall, the combination of time-resolved tower and surface measurements provided important insight into PM stratification, formation, and transport.     

Biogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediments of the San Joaquin River in California (USA), and current paradigms on their formation

Biogenic perylene and higher plant pentacyclic triterpenoid-derived alkylated and partially aromatized tetra- and pentacyclic derivatives of chrysene (3,4,7-trimethyl- and 3,3,7-trimethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydrochrysene, THC) and picene (1,2,9-trimethyl- and 2,2,9-trimethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydropicene, THP) were two- to four-fold more abundant than pyrogenic PAH in two sediment cores from the San Joaquin River in Northern California (USA). In a core from Venice Cut (VC), located in the river, PAH concentrations varied little downcore and the whole-core PAH concentration (biogenics?+?pyrogenics) was 250.6?±?73.7 ng g^?1 dw; biogenic PAH constituted 67?±?4 % of total PAH. THC were 26?±?9 % of total biogenic PAH, THP were 36?±?7 %, and perylene was 38?±?7 %. PAH distributions in a core from Franks Tract (FT), a former wetland that was converted to an agricultural tract in the late 1800s and flooded in 1938, were more variable. Surface sediments were dominated by pyrogenic PAH so that biogenic PAH were only ~30 % of total PAH. Deeper in the core, biogenic PAH constituted 60–93 % of total PAH; THC, THP and perylene were 31?±?28 %, 24?±?32 %, and 45?±?36 % of biogenic PAH. At 100–103 cm depth, THP constituted 80 % of biogenic PAH and at 120–123 cm perylene was 95 % of biogenic PAH. Current concepts related to precursors and transformation processes responsible for the diagenetic generation of perylene and triterpenoid-derived PAH are discussed. Distributions of biogenic PAH in VC and FT sediments suggest that they may not form diagenetically within these sediments but rather might be delivered pre-formed from the river’s watershed.     

The effects of meteorology on ozone in urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends

The United States Environmental Protection Agency issues periodic reports that describe air quality trends in the US. For some pollutants, such as ozone, both observed and meteorologically adjusted trends are displayed. This paper describes an improved statistical methodology for meteorologically adjusting ozone trends as well as characterizes the relationships between individual meteorological parameters and ozone. A generalized linear model that accommodates the nonlinear effects of the meteorological variables was fit to data collected for 39 major eastern US urban areas. Overall, the model performs very well, yielding R² statistics as high as 0.80. The analysis confirms that ozone is generally increasing with increasing temperature and decreasing with increasing relative humidity. Examination of the spatial gradients of these responses show that the effect of temperature on ozone is most pronounced in the north while the opposite is true of relative humidity. By including HYSPLIT-derived transport wind direction and distance in the model, it is shown that the largest incremental impact of wind direction on ozone occurs along the periphery of the study domain, which encompasses major NO_x emission sources.     

Comparison of modelled and measured ozone concentrations and meteorology for a site in south-west Sweden: implications for ozone uptake calculations

Measurements of ground-level ozone concentrations and meteorology (temperature, vapour pressure deficit (VPD), solar radiation) at the monitoring site Ostad (south-west Sweden) were compared to data from the corresponding grid in the EMEP photo-oxidant model for 1997, 1999 and 2000. The influence of synoptic weather on the agreement between model and measurements was studied. Implications of differences between modelled and observed inputs for ozone flux calculations for wheat and potato were investigated. The EMEP model output of ozone, temperature and VPD correlated well with measurements during daytime. Deviations were larger during the night, especially in calm conditions, attributed to local climatological conditions at the monitoring site deviating from average conditions of the grid. These differences did not lead to significant differences in calculated ozone uptake, which was reproduced remarkably well. The uptake calculations were sensitive to errors in the ozone and temperature input data, especially when including a flux threshold.     

Irrigation runoff insecticide pollution of rivers in the Imperial Valley, California (USA)

The Alamo and New Rivers located in the Imperial Valley, California receive large volumes of irrigation runoff and discharge into the ecologically sensitive Salton Sea. Between 1993 and 2002 we conducted a series of studies to assess water quality using three aquatic species: a cladoceran (Ceriodaphnia dubia), a mysid (Neomysis mercedis), and a larval fish (Pimephales promelas). Although no mortality was observed with the P. promelas, high-level toxicity to the invertebrate species was documented in samples from both rivers during many months of each year. Toxicity identifications and chemical analyses identified the organophosphorus insecticides (OP), chlorpyrifos and diazinon, as the cause of C. dubia toxicity. The extent of the C. dubia mortality was highly correlated with quantities of these OPs applied in the river watersheds. C. dubia mortality occurred during more months of our 2001/2002 study than in the 1990s investigations. During 2001/2002, the extensive C. dubia mortality observed in New River samples was caused by OP insecticide pollution that originated from Mexico. Mortality to N. mercedis in New River samples was likely caused by contaminants other than OP insecticides. Our studies document OP insecticide-caused pollution of the Alamo River over a 10-year period and provide the necessary information for remediation efforts.     

Relationships of ozone exposure to pine injury in the Sierra Nevada and San Bernardino Mountains of California, USA

Hourly ambient ozone exposure data and crown injury measurements were gathered in the Sierra Nevada and San Bernardino Mountains of California to develop relationships between the Ozone Injury Index (OII), the Forest Pest Management Index (FPM), chlorotic mottle, fascicle retention (OII index components) and cumulative ambient ozone indices for Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws and Pinus jeffreyi Grev. and Balf. Eleven sites located in the mixed conifer forest near ambient ozone monitoring sites were evaluated annually for 4 years. Four other sites in the San Bernardino Mountains were evaluated for 1 year. Analyses showed OII to be functionally equivalent (r2 = 0.96) to the FPM, and to depend only on fascicle retention and chlorotic mottle (R2 = 0.95) of the fourth whorl (or if four whorls are not present at the site, then the last whorl present for the majority of trees). Significant associations were found between OII and 4-year 24-h. summer SUM0, SUM06, W126 and HRS80 ozone indices. Three sites had higher levels of cumulative chlorotic mottle for individual whorls and larger numbers of trees with visible crown injury than other sites with similar cumulative ambient ozone levels. Including an indicator variable to discriminate between these two groups of sites increased R2 and decreased root mean square (RMSE) for all indices, especially SUM0 (R2 = 0.93, RMSE reduced by 46%).     

Modelling local and synoptic scale influences on ozone concentrations in a topographically complex region of Southern Italy

A modelling study with the on-line coupled Eulerian chemical-weather model WRF/Chem for the Southern Italian region around Cosenza (Calabria) was conducted to identify the influences of synoptic scale meteorology, local scale wind systems and local emissions on ozone concentrations in this orographically complex region. Four periods of 5–7 days were chosen, one from each season, which had wind pattern characteristics representative of typical local climatological conditions, in order to study the local versus non-local impacts on ozone transport and formation. To account for the complex terrain, the horizontal resolution of the smallest modelling domain was 3 km. Model results were compared with measurements to demonstrate the capability of the model to reproduce ozone concentrations in the region. The comparison was favourable with a mean bias of ?1.1 ppb. The importance of local emissions on ozone formation and destruction was identified with the use of three different emission scenarios. Generally the influence of regional emissions on the average ozone concentration was small. However during periods when mountain-sea wind systems were well developed and synoptic scale winds were weak, the influence of local emissions from the urban area was at its greatest. The maximum influence of local emissions on ozone concentrations was 18 ppb.     

Ozone distribution and phytotoxic potential in mixed conifer forests of the San Bernardino Mountains, southern California

In the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, ozone (O(3)) concentrations have been elevated since the 1950s with peaks reaching 600ppb and summer seasonal averages >100ppb in the 1970s. During that period increased mortality of ponderosa and Jeffrey pines occurred. Between the late 1970s and late1990s, O(3) concentrations decreased with peaks approximately 180ppb and approximately 60ppb seasonal averages. However, since the late 1990s concentrations have not changed. Monitoring during summers of 2002-2006 showed that O(3) concentrations (2-week averages) for individual years were much higher in western sites (58-69ppb) than eastern sites (44-50ppb). Potential O(3) phytotoxicity measured as various exposure indices was very high, reaching SUM00 - 173.5ppmh, SUM60 - 112.7ppmh, W126 - 98.3ppmh, and AOT40 - 75ppmh, representing the highest values reported for mountain areas in North America and Europe.     

Influence of ozone air pollution on plant-herbivore interactions. Part 2: Effects of ozone on feeding preference, growth and consumption rates of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

Effects of ozone fumigation of Asclepias curassavica L. and A. syriaca L. on feeding preference, growth, development, and nutritional indices of monarch larvae were investigated in conjunction with changes in specific leaf metabolites. While foliar chemistry was quite variable, fumigation generally decreased sugars and proteins, and increased amino acids and phenolics in A. curassavica. Effects were similar in A. syriaca except that sugars were generally increased while amino acids were usually not affected. On A. curassavica, 3rd instar larvae preferred ozone-treated leaves while 4th instars showed no preference; conversely, on A. syriaca, 3rd instars showed no preference while 4th instars preferred control leaves. Relative growth rate and relative consumption rate of 5th instars were greater on fumigated plants of both species, but other nutritional indices were unaffected. Larvae developed more rapidly on intact fumigated plants of both species than on the respective controls. The results suggest that enhanced feeding stimulation may be the primary cause of the altered behavior and performance on ozone-fumigated plants.     

Estimating the effects of increased urbanization on surface meteorology and ozone concentrations in the New York City metropolitan region

Land use and pollutant emission changes can have significant impacts on air quality, regional climate, and human health. Here we describe a modeling study aimed at quantifying the potential effects of extensive changes in urban land cover in the New York City (NYC), USA metropolitan region on surface meteorology and ozone (O₃) concentrations. The SLEUTH land-use change model was used to extrapolate urban land cover over this region from “present-day” (ca. 1990) conditions to a future year (ca. 2050), and these projections were subsequently integrated into meteorological and air quality simulations. The development of the future-year land-use scenario followed the narrative of the “A2” scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but was restricted to the greater NYC area. The modeling system consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions processing system; and the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and simulations were performed for two 18-day episodes, one near-past and one future. Our results suggest that extensive urban growth in the NYC metropolitan area has the potential to increase afternoon near-surface temperatures by more than 0.6 °C and planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by more than 150 m, as well as decrease water vapor mixing ratio by more than 0.6 g kg⁻¹, across the NYC metropolitan area, with the areal extent of all of these changes generally coinciding with the area of increased urbanization. On the other hand, the impacts of these land use changes on ozone concentrations are more complex. Simulation results indicate that future changes in urbanization, with emissions held constant, may lead to increases in episode-average O₃ levels by about 1–5 ppb, and episode-maximum 8 h O₃ levels by more than 6 ppb across much of the NYC area. However, spatial patterns of ozone changes are heterogeneous and also indicate the presence of areas with decreasing ozone concentrations. When anthropogenic emissions were increased to be consistent with the extensive urbanization in the greater NYC area, the O₃ levels increased in outer counties of the metropolitan region but decreased in others, including coastal Connecticut and the Long Island Sound area.