OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT AND DESIGN OF HYDRAULIC SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A possible methodology is developed to deal with the problem of designing complex pipeline systems, when they are subject to different rates of demand, and when a hypothesis of the flow distribution in different branches is not allowed. The mathematical algorithm used in linear programming. The problem, which is not linear, is dealt with by means of an iterative method; that is, by starting with a possible solution and inserting at each iteration the solution found in the preceding iteration. By taking as variables of the problem the piezometric heads of the ends for each branch of the network, the piezometric gradients and flows, and by thus considering the diameter as a derived variable, it is possible to isolate the nonlinearity in the cost function of the network. The latter is linearized each time close to the solution found in the preceding iteration.     

NUMERICAL MODELING OF THERMAL STRATIFICATION IN A RESERVOIR WITH LARGE DISCHARGE-TO-VOLUME RATIO1

ABSTRACT: A numerical model study of thermal stratification in a high discharge-to-volume reservoir is described. Predicted temperature profiles are compared with field data for two different years. The model accurately predicts the date of fall turnover, and predicts degree of stratification and depth of the thermocline within about 20% for both years simulated. A parametric study of stratification mechanics for a high flow reservoir indicated that diffusion was the predominant heat transport mechanism in the hypolimnion, while surface effects dominated the epilimnion. Flow effects for the particular case studied, in which all inflows and outflows occur in the epilimnion, did not significantly affect stratification behavior.     

A MODEL FOR PLANNING AND LOCATION OF ON-SITE WASTE DISPOSAL SYSTEMS1

Abstract: A model that incorportaes performace data about data about several wastewater management systems is discussed. From these data the excepted behavior of an individual wastewater system or group of systems can be product of the performace probabilities of its individual components. The modeel can be used on a regional scale facilitating land use planning by allowing accurate estimates of performance for a prospective wastewater management system. At this scale it can allow the impact evaluation of new wastewater technology on land use in a region.     

A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL OF DESALTING1

ABSTRACT The Office of Saline Water, which has federal responsibility for developing low-cost, saline sources of fresh water, has recognized the need for an improved method of forecasting the future potential of desalting in this country. The magnitude of the role of desalting will influence the plans of federal, state, and local water resource agencies and the research and development programs of manufacturers. A dynamic simulation model has been developed by Arthur D. Little, Inc. under contract by OSW to translate relevant factors of water supply and demand into a forecast of desalting potential. The model projects the needs for desalting in 20 hydrologic regions of the U.S. Model performance has thus far been demonstrated by the development of a forecast and a battery of related sensitivity tests. Current results indicate the following potential desalting capacities: 225 MGD in 1980; 2,250 MGD in 2000; and 7,000 MGD in 2020. Significant improvements in desalting economics promise to increase these potentials by a factor of four or five by 2000-2020. Model inputs and results are continuing to be refined. When completed, OSW will have a dynamic tool with which to guide its R&D program.     

IMPLEMENTATION OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR OPERATION OF A METROPOLITAN RESERVOIR SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: A deterministic dynamic programming optimization model with a refining sectioning search procedure is developed and implemented to find least cost withdrawal and release patterns for water supple from a multiple reservoir system serving a metropolitan area. Applications are made to teh four reservoir system operated by the city of Dallas, Texas. A realistic cost structure, including nonlinear power consumption, block rate unit power costs, and flow dependent power consumption for intracity water distribution, is utilized. Applications are made to find least cost operating patterns and, as well, by inclusion of a water loss penalty function, supply patterns which will reduce evaporation water losses for the Dallas system.     

DEVELOPMENT AND VERIFICATION OF A WATER BALANCE MODEL FOR SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: A water balance model was developed to predict daily water table depths in some corn fields with or without subsurface drainage systems, using pertinent soil and water properties and weather data. The model outputs were compared with the recorded data of observed water table depths. Some statistical parameters such as the mean, standard deviation, the coefficient of correlation, the sum of the squares of deviations, and a nonparametric statistical test were used to study the extent of agreement between the observed and the predicted water table depths. No significant difference was found between the distributions of the observed and the predicted water table depths at the 99% confidence level. The study was conducted on some sand and clay soils of the Ottawa-St. Lawrence Lowlands region in Canada where there is a cool, moist climate and poor natural drainage.     

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTERDISCIPLINARY PLANNING MODEL FOR WATER AND FISHERY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the development of an interdisciplinary model that analyzes the effects of resource management decisions on New Mexico fishery production, yield, sportfishing effort, and economic benefit to anglers. The model recreates river flows and materials transported through reservoirs and their tailwaters from 1974 through 1987. Solar radiation, water temperature, phosphorus, nitrogen, suspended solids, and water exchange rates determine primary production. Organic loads from watershed sources, added to primary production, form a trophic base for sportfish forage. Fish production is partitioned into biomass and growth of each age class in sportfish and forage fish groups by differential responses to food type, light, water-level fluctuation and predation. Fish biomass, with angler population distribution and site condition, contributes to determining angler effort and economic benefits. Model users can vary and analyze water level and quality, stocking, fishing regulations, site access, site facilities, and site entry fees. The model (on floppy disks with a user manual) is available for operation on MS DOS compatible computers with a hard disk. Contact R. M. Wilson, NMGF, State Capitol, Santa Fe, New Mexico, 87503.     

A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR THE OPTIMUM OPERATION OF A MULTI-PURPOSE RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: The main objective of this paper is to present a stockastic dynamic programming model useful in determining the optimal operating policy of a single multipurpose surface reservoir. It is the unreliability of forecasting the amount of future streamflow which makes the problem of a reservoir operation a stochastic process. In this paper the stochastic nature of the streamflow is taken into account by considering the correlation between the streamflows of each pair of consecutive time intervals. This interdependence is used to calculate the probability of transition from a given state and stage to its succeeding ones. A dynamic programming model with a physical equation and a stochastic recursive equation is developed to find the optimum operational policy. For illustrative purposes, the model is applied to a real surface water reservoir system.     

A MODEL TO ENHANCE WETLAND DESIGN AND OPTIMIZE NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION CONTROL1

ABSTRACT: A dynamic, compartmental, simulation model (WETLAND) was developed for the design and evaluation of constructed wetlands to optimize nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control. The model simulates the hydrologic, nitrogen, carbon, dissolved oxygen (DO), bacteria, vegetative, phosphorous, and sediment cycles of a wetland system. Written in Fortran 77, the WETLAND models both free‐water surface (FWS) and subsurface flow (SSF) wetlands, and is designed in a modular manner that gives the user the flexibility to decide which cycles and processes to model. WETLAND differs from many existing wetland models in that the interactions between the different nutrient cycles are modeled, minimizing the number of assumptions concerning wetland processes. It also directly links microbial growth and death to the consumption and transformations of nutrients in the wetland system. The WETLAND model is intended to be utilized with an existing NPS hydro‐logic simulation model, such as ANSWERS or BASINS, but also may be used in situations where measured input data to the wetland are available. The model was calibrated and validated using limited data from a FWS wetland located at Benton, Kentucky. The WETLAND predictions were not statistically different from measured values for of five‐day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), suspended sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorous. Effluent DO predictions were not always consistent with measured concentrations. A sensitivity analysis indicated the most significant input parameters to the model were those that directly affected bacterial growth and DO uptake and movement. The model was used to design a hypothetical constructed wetland in a subwatershed of the Nomini Creek watershed, located in Virginia. Two‐year simulations were completed for five separate wetland designs. Predicted percent reductions in BOD₅ (4 to 45 percent), total suspended solids (85 to 100 percent), total nitrogen (42 to 56 percent), and total phosphorous (38 to 57 percent) were similar to levels reported by previous research.     

A DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MULTI‐RESERVOIR SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A decision support tool is developed for the management of water resources, focusing on multipurpose reservoir systems. This software tool has been designed in such a way that it can be suitable to hydrosystems with multiple water uses and operating goals, calculating complex multi‐reservoir systems as a whole. The mathematical framework is based on the parameterization‐simulation‐optimization scheme. The main idea consists of a parametric formulation of the operating rules for reservoirs and other projects (i.e., hydropower plants). This methodology enables the radical decrease of the number of decision variables, making feasible the location of the optimal management policy, which maximizes the system yield and the overall operational benefit and minimizes the risk for the management decisions. The program was developed using advanced software engineering techniques. It is adaptable in a wide range of water resources systems, and its purpose is to support water and power supply companies and related authorities. It already has been applied to two of the most complicated hydrosystems of Greece, the first time as a planning tool and the second time as a management tool.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.     

STEP WISE,MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE CALIBRATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR A SNOWMELT DOMINATED BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated consistently with measured values.     

AN EFFICIENT RESPONSE MATRIX METHOD FOR COUPLING A GROUNDWATER SIMULATOR AND A REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT MODEL1

ABSTRACT: By extending the concept of response matrix to consider “active” and “passive” effects, an efficient response matrix method is developed for coupling a groundwater simulator and a regional agricultural management model The method eliminates the need to store all of the recovery information from preceding time periods. Active effects are those which occur during the actual application of a pumping or recharge stress while passive effects represent the recovery of water levels from an initial departure from steady-state conditions at the beginning of a time step. Derivation of the required matrices and a numerical example are presented for the Salinas Valley groundwater basin in California.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

HICKORY CREEK DRY RESERVOIR: A COMPRAOMISE DESIGN FOR BOTH FLOOD CONTROL AND NATURAL AREA PROTECTION1

Abstract: The proposed Hickory and Spring Creeks Flood Control and Recreation Project of the Illinois State Division of Water Resources and the Will County Forest Preserve District is desinged to provide flood control for Joliet, Illinos, and areas of the watershed to the east of the city and to provide open-space recreational land upstream from the Hickory Breek Dry Reservoir embankement. A viable forest ecosytem in the reservoir flood pool following construction is of major importance to the project. Factors of the environment influencing tree distribution and flood tolerance and a process for determining the best operational design to provide both flood control and the maintenance of a natural streamside forest ecosystem are described.     

INTEGRATION OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND A COMPUTER MODEL TO EVALUATE IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF ON WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This study integrates an Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Model (AGNPS), the Geographic Resource Analysis Support System (GRASS) (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1987), and GRASS WATERWORKS (a hydrologic modeling tool box being developed at the Michigan State University Center for Remote Sensing) to evaluate the impact of agricultural runoff on water quality in the Cass River, a subwatershed of Saginaw Bay. AGNPS is used to estimate the amounts, origin, and distribution of sediment, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in the watershed. GRASS and GRASS WATERWORKS are used to generate parameters needed for AGNPS from digital maps, which include soil association, land use, watershed boundaries, water features, and digital elevation. Outputs of the model include spatially distributed estimates of volume and peak runoff, overland and channel erosion, sediment yields, and concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus. Management scenarios are explored in the AGNPS model to minimize sedimentation and nutrient loading. Scenarios evaluated include variations in crop cover, tillage methods, and other agricultural management practices. In addition, areas vulnerable to erosion are identified for best management practices.