Population and the environment: toward a theory of environmental Malthusianism

Present governmental and environmental policy is curative and reactive in nature, directed towards cleaning up past environmental disasters and passing laws to limit pollutants emitted by individuals and enterprises. Such policies fail to recognize that the root causes of environmental degradation are the result of an exponentially expanding population and a rising standard of living. No environmental programme can be successful without controlling population and reforming governmental policies in the areas of family planning, abortion, immigration, and economic regulation. Controlling population by liberalizing family planning and abortion laws is a more humane approach than reducing standards of living, especially in developing countries, where poverty is the cause of so much misery.     

Interaction of Population Growth,Industrial Growth and Pollution Control

A model is developed which predicts the level of pollution as a function of time given the rate of waste production and the persistence of the pollutant. In general, waste production is a function of the population density and the degree of industrialization of a society. With pollution control programs it is possible to reduce the per capita waste production for a given degree of industrialization. The model demonstrates that in a growth economy such as that of the United States, pollution control programs by themselves only delay the inevitable increase in pollution levels. In the long run population and industrial growth are incompatible with pollution control.     

Marine oil pollution and beached bird surveys: the development of a sensitive monitoring instrument

One of the most obvious adverse effects of (chronic) pollution of the world's oceans and seas with mineral oil is the mortality of seabirds. Systematic surveys of beachcast corpses of birds ('beached bird surveys') have been used in many parts of the world to document the effect of oil pollution, but particularly so in Western Europe and in parts of North America. In this paper, the history, current schemes, methods and possible (future) use of beached bird surveys are described and discussed, because the value of beached bird surveys has been hotly disputed. Oil pollution is known since the late 19th century, while the first beached bird surveys were conducted in the 1920s. Due to the amount of man-power needed for these surveys, most beached bird survey programs thrived only through the work of a large number of volunteers. However, most programs have resulted in substantial amounts of high quality data, often covering many consecutive years. One of the main shortcomings of many beached bird survey programs was the emphasis on stranded bird numbers rather than on relative measures, such as oil rates (percentage of corpses oiled of all corpses found). Sources of pollution, particularly so in chronically polluted regions such as the North Sea, the Baltic, the Mediterranean and the waters around Newfoundland, are insufficiently known, but could be studied through a sampling program connected to beached bird surveys. Suggestions for standardization of methods are presented, which could lead to a global and highly sensitive monitoring instrument of marine oil pollution.     

Extrapolating phosphorus production to estimate resource reserves

Various indicators of resource scarcity and methods for extrapolating resource availability are examined for phosphorus. These include resource lifetime, and trends in resource price, ore grade and discovery rates, and Hubbert curve extrapolation. Several of these indicate increasing scarcity of phosphate resources. Calculated resource lifetime is subject to a number of caveats such as unanticipated future changes in resource discovery, mining and beneficiation technology, population growth or per-capita demand. Thus it should be used only as a rough planning index or as a relative indicator of potential scarcity. This paper examines the uncertainty in one method for estimating available resources from historical production data. The confidence intervals for the parameters and predictions of the Hubbert curves are computed as they relate to the amount of information available. These show that Hubbert-type extrapolations are not robust for predicting the ultimately recoverable reserves or year of peak production of phosphate rock. Previous successes of the Hubbert curve are for cases in which there exist alternative resources, which is not the situation for phosphate. It is suggested that data other than historical production, such as population growth, identified resources and economic factors, should be included in making such forecasts.     

ESF Workshop

Dioxin and PCB monitoring programs for food and feeding stuff in most countries of the world, including many European Countries are currently inadequate. Better control of food production lines and food processing procedures is needed to minimize entry of dioxin to the food chain and will help to avoid dioxin contamination accidents. This would also improve the ability to trace back a possible contamination to its source. European guidelines for monitoring programs should be established to ensure comparable and meaningful results. These guidelines should define the minimum requirements for the design of monitoring programs, analytical methods, and quality assurance. Though data from Northern Europe shows that the general population exposure to dioxin and PCB has decreased during the last ten years these compounds continue to be a risk of accidental contamination of the food chain. The most prominent recent example is the Belgian dioxin contamination of feeding stuff in 1999. The Belgian dioxin contamination was not detected due to dioxin monitoring programs but by their direct biological effects seen in animals. Four other cases of dioxin contamination have been detected in Europe since 1997 due to local monitoring programs. One of them (citrus pulp pellets 1998) was in a much larger scale than the Belgian dioxin contamination. The general population's exposure to dioxins and PCBs is still in the same range (1-4 pg WHO-TEQ/kg body weight and day) as the recently revised WHO tolerable daily intake (TDI). There is concern that short-term high level exposure to dioxins, furans, and PCB may cause biological effects on the human fetal development and further research is required. Further actions to control sources building on considerable advances already made in many countries may need to be supplemented by measures to prevent direct contamination of feeding stuff or food to reduce general population exposure further.     

The rule of sustainability and planning adaptivity

This article confronts present main stream planning approaches against the perspective of ecological sustainability, as relevant for Rule of Law countries and based on a modern environmental law approach. It discusses the setting and implementation of environmental goals against the general experience of massive implementation deficits regarding environmental policies all over the world. In this confrontation, environmental planning, with at least some principles picked up from New Zealand's Resource Management Act, and much more taken from modern environmental law theory on legal operationalisation, is compared to adaptive management approaches which also allow for modifying the environment related goal if implementation fails or seems very difficult. The concept of adaptive environmental planning (AEP) is suggested as a possible road to choose for planning for sustainability, while maximizing development within the framework legally defined by means of environmental limits. This article presents five criteria, all of which must be met by AEP planning. One of these relates to a planning hierarchy which, among other things, leads to the conclusion that coastal planning, if it is intended to aim at sustainability, can not be dealt with in isolation, although such planning might have to meet very complex problems at the regional level.     

Effects of Natural Disasters on Conservation Policies: The Case of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,China

Conservation policies are increasing in response to human-induced ecosystem degradation, but little is known about their interplay with natural disasters. Through an analysis of satellite imagery and field data we evaluated the impacts of a devastating earthquake on forest recovery and avoided forest loss estimated to have been obtained by two of the largest conservation programs in the world. Results show that more than 10% of the forests in Wenchuan County, Sichuan province, China were immediately affected by the 2008 earthquake, offsetting some gains in forest cover observed since the enactment of the conservation programs. But without the enactment of these conservation programs, the combined effects of human disturbance and earthquake-induced landslides could have severely reduced the region’s forest cover. The continuation—and enhancement—of incentives for participation in conservation programs will be important for reducing the environmental impacts of the combined effects of human disturbance and natural hazards not only in the study area but also in many disaster-prone regions around the world.     

Field monitoring design considerations for assessing indoor exposures to combustion pollutants

Laboratory and controlled field studies of indoor air quality (IAQ) have characterized pollutant emission rates from combustion sources and have measured other key indoor air pollution parameters such as air exchange rates and indoor reactivity rates for the houses investigated. In addition, several field studies have attempted to measure, with varying degrees of success, pollutant exposures, indoor pollutant concentrations, and other parameters in large populations. To date, there exists no comprehensive strategy for assessing distributions of exposures to combustion pollutants and distributions of factors that affect such exposures in large populations. This paper outlines important parameters that affect combustion-related indoor air pollution concentrations and exposures, delineates weaknesses in our current understanding of exposures and field sampling methodologies, and mentions important considerations in planning appropriate field sampling strategies.     

Effects of land use data on dry deposition in a regional photochemical model for eastern Texas

Land use data are among the inputs used to determine dry deposition velocities for photochemical grid models such as the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) that is currently used for attainment demonstrations and air quality planning by the state of Texas. The sensitivity of dry deposition and O3 mixing ratios to land use classification was investigated by comparing predictions based on default U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) land use data to predictions based on recently compiled land use data that were collected to improve biogenic emissions estimates. Dry deposition of O3 decreased throughout much of eastern Texas, especially in urban areas, with the new land use data. Predicted 1-hr averaged O3 mixing ratios with the new land use data were as much as 11 ppbv greater and 6 ppbv less than predictions based on USGS land use data during the late afternoon. In addition, the area with peak O3 mixing ratios in excess of 100 ppbv increased significantly in urban areas when deposition velocities were calculated based on the new land use data. Finally, more detailed data on land use within urban areas resulted in peak changes in O3 mixing ratios of approximately 2 ppbv. These results indicate the importance of establishing accurate, internally consistent land use data for photochemical modeling in urban areas in Texas. They also indicate the need for field validation of deposition rates in areas experiencing changing land use patterns, such as during urban reforestation programs or residential and commercial development.     

Megacities and atmospheric pollution

About half of the world's population now lives in urban areas because of the opportunity for a better quality of life. Many of these urban centers are expanding rapidly, leading to the growth of megacities, which are defined as metropolitan areas with populations exceeding 10 million inhabitants. These concentrations of people and activity are exerting increasing stress on the natural environment, with impacts at urban, regional and global levels. In recent decades, air pollution has become one of the most important problems of megacities. Initially, the main air pollutants of concern were sulfur compounds, which were generated mostly by burning coal. Today, photochemical smog--induced primarily from traffic, but also from industrial activities, power generation, and solvents--has become the main source of concern for air quality, while sulfur is still a major problem in many cities of the developing world. Air pollution has serious impacts on public health, causes urban and regional haze, and has the potential to contribute significantly to climate change. Yet, with appropriate planning, megacities can efficiently address their air quality problems through measures such as application of new emission control technologies and development of mass transit systems. This review is focused on nine urban centers, chosen as case studies to assess air quality from distinct perspectives: from cities in the industrialized nations to cities in the developing world. While each city--its problems, resources, and outlook--is unique, the need for a holistic approach to the complex environmental problems is the same. There is no single strategy in reducing air pollution in megacities; a mix of policy measures will be needed to improve air quality. Experience shows that strong political will coupled with public dialog is essential to effectively implement the regulations required to address air quality problems.     

The Crisis in Air Pollution Manpower Development

There is a crisis in air pollution manpower development within the United States today. This is the conclusion drawn from a series of three studies recently conducted by the National Air Pollution Manpower Development Advisory Committee. These studies, designed to define the essential components of a total manpower development program and to evaluate current efforts on specific segments of such a program, showed that the existing Federal manpower program fails to address many of the problem areas needing attention, that greater effort needs to be directed to meeting the air pollution educational requirements of State highway departments and planning agencies, and that the quality of most graduate level university programs in air pollution control is on the decline because of the withdrawal of Federal financial support.     

Air Pollution Control and Public Apathy

The importance of public involvement in programs of air pollution control has been stressed by a number of writers in the field, most recently by Sterner in his comments to the Third National Conference on Air Pollution.¹ As he points out, public apathy appears to be a critical barrier in the development and implementation of effective control programs. Along the same line, Dixon and Lodge, in a digest of the report of the AAAS Air Conservation Committee, state that, “The best program in the world can fail in the face of opposition or apathy on the part of the public.”² It is the purpose of this paper to take a more analytical look at this problem, particularly in the light of recent data from an opinion survey in West Virginia. If such apathy exists, effective countermeasures require that we examine it more fully and understand its sources. Collective handwringing will do little to meet the problem.     

Radon Risk Communication Research: Practical Lessons

Those responsible for state and local radon programs often express frustration about the small share of homes that have been tested for radon, and the small share of those with high readings that have been mitigated. There are now a number of completed studies that have examined how well alternative ways of communicating about radon risk have accomplished the goals of motivating appropriate testing and mitigation. This paper summarizes the research results that are most crucial for planning and implementing effective radon risk communication programs. We identify six reasons why people do not respond to radon as a serious threat and provide some remedies suggested by radon studies.     

Radon risk communication research: practical lessons

Those responsible for state and local radon programs often express frustration about the small share of homes that have been tested for radon, and the small share of those with high readings that have been mitigated. There are now a number of completed studies that have examined how well alternative ways of communicating about radon risk have accomplished the goals of motivating appropriate testing and mitigation. This paper summarizes the research results that are most crucial for planning and implementing effective radon risk communication programs. We identify six reasons why people do not respond to radon as a serious threat and provide some remedies suggested by radon studies.     

Urban air quality

Since 1950 the world population has more than doubled, and the global number of cars has increased by a factor of 10. In the same period the fraction of people living in urban areas has increased by a factor of 4. In year 2000 this will amount to nearly half of the world population. About 20 urban regions will each have populations above 10 million people.Seen over longer periods, pollution in major cities tends to increase during the built up phase, they pass through a maximum and are then again reduced, as abatement strategies are developed. In the industrialised western world urban air pollution is in some respects in the last stage with effectively reduced levels of sulphur dioxide and soot. In recent decades however, the increasing traffic has switched the attention to nitrogen oxides, organic compounds and small particles. In some cities photochemical air pollution is an important urban problem, but in the northern part of Europe it is a large-scale phenomenon, with ozone levels in urban streets being normally lower than in rural areas. Cities in Eastern Europe have been (and in many cases still are) heavily polluted. After the recent political upheaval, followed by a temporary recession and a subsequent introduction of new technologies, the situation appears to improve. However, the rising number of private cars is an emerging problem. In most developing countries the rapid urbanisation has so far resulted in uncontrolled growth and deteriorating environment. Air pollution levels are here still rising on many fronts.Apart from being sources of local air pollution, urban activities are significant contributors to transboundary pollution and to the rising global concentrations of greenhouse gasses. Attempts to solve urban problems by introducing cleaner, more energy-efficient technologies will generally have a beneficial impact on these large-scale problems. Attempts based on city planning with a spreading of the activities, on the other hand, may generate more traffic and may thus have the opposite effect.     

Air Quality in Selected Megacities

Abstract

About half of the world's population now lives in urban areas because of the opportunity for a better quality of life. Many of these urban centers are expanding rapidly, leading to the growth of megacities, which are often defined as metropolitan areas with populations exceeding 10 million inhabitants. These concentrations of people and activity are exerting increasing stress on the natural environment, with impacts at urban, regional and global levels. In recent decades, air pollution has become one of the most important problems of megacities. Initially, the main air pollutants of concern were sulfur compounds, which were generated mostly by burning coal. Today, photochemical smog—induced primarily from traffic, but also from industrial activities, power generation, and solvents—has become the main source of concern for air quality, while sulfur is still a major problem in many cities of the developing world. Air pollution has serious impacts on public health, causes urban and regional haze, and has the potential to contribute significantly to global climate change. Yet, with appropriate planning megacities can efficiently address their air quality problems through measures such as application of new emission control technologies and development of mass transit systems.

This review is focused on nine urban centers, chosen as case studies to assess air quality from distinct perspectives: from cities in the industrialized nations to cities in the developing world. This review considers not only megacities, but also urban centers with somewhat smaller populations, for while each city—its problems, resources, and outlook—is unique, the need for a holistic approach to complex environmental problems is the same. There is no single strategy to reduce air pollution in megacities; a mix of policy measures will be needed to improve air quality. Experience shows that strong political will coupled with public dialogue is essential to effectively implement the regulations required to address air quality.     

Ecosystem Services in Urban Landscapes: Practical Applications and Governance Implications

Urban landscapes are the everyday environment for the majority of the global population, and almost 80 % of the Europeans live in urban areas. The continuous growth in the number and size of urban areas along with an increasing demand on resources and energy poses great challenges for ensuring human welfare in cities while preventing an increasing loss of biodiversity. The understanding of how urban ecosystems function, provide goods and services for urban dwellers; and how they change and what allows and limits their performance can add to the understanding of ecosystem change and governance in general in an ever more human-dominated world. This Special Issue aims at bridging the knowledge gap among urbanization, demand creation, and provisioning of ecosystem services in urban regions on the one hand and schemes of urban governance and planning on the other.     

Effects of Land Use Data on Dry Deposition in a Regional Photochemical Model for Eastern Texas

ABSTRACT

Land use data are among the inputs used to determine dry deposition velocities for photochemical grid models such as the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) that is currently used for attainment demonstrations and air quality planning by the state of Texas. The sensitivity of dry deposition and O₃ mixing ratios to land use classification was investigated by comparing predictions based on default U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) land use data to predictions based on recently compiled land use data that were collected to improve biogenic emissions estimates. Dry deposition of O₃ decreased throughout much of eastern Texas, especially in urban areas, with the new land use data. Predicted 1-hr averaged O₃ mixing ratios with the new land use data were as much as 11 ppbv greater and 6 ppbv less than predictions based on USGS land use data during the late afternoon. In addition, the area with peak O₃ mixing ratios in excess of 100 ppbv increased significantly in urban areas when deposition velocities were calculated based on the new land use data. Finally, more detailed data on land use within urban areas resulted in peak changes in O₃ mixing ratios of ~2 ppbv. These results indicate the importance of establishing accurate, internally consistent land use data for photochemical modeling in urban areas in Texas. They also indicate the need for field validation of deposition rates in areas experiencing changing land use patterns, such as during urban reforestation programs or residential and commercial development.     

Ecohydrological Responses to Diversion of Groundwater: Case Study of a Deep-Rock Repository for Spent Nuclear Fuel in Sweden

Planning and license applications concerning groundwater diversion in areas containing water-dependent or water-favored habitats must take into account both hydrological effects and associated ecological consequences. There is at present no established methodology to assess such ecohydrological responses. Thus, this paper describes a new stepwise methodology to assess ecohydrological responses to groundwater diversion from, e.g., water-drained pits, shafts, tunnels, and caverns in rock below the groundwater table. The methodology is illustrated using the planned deep-rock repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark in central Sweden as a case study, offering access to a unique hydrological and ecological dataset. The case study demonstrates that results of ecohydrological assessments can provide useful inputs to planning of monitoring programs and mitigation measures in infrastructure projects. As a result of the assessment, artificial water supply to wetlands is planned in order to preserve biological diversity, nature values, and vulnerable species.     

Demarcating coastal vegetation buffers with multicriteria evaluation and GIS at Saldanha Bay, South Africa

The Saldanha-Langebaan coastal zone forms an integral part of the South African coastal resource base. As elsewhere in the world, an acute need exists to balance development and economic growth and conservation in the coastal zone as an exploitable resource frontier area. Vegetated buffers and greenways are conservation concepts that have been used with great success in such conservation efforts. They are applied in the study area through the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) as spatial decision-support system to legitimize the demarcation of a vegetated buffer zone. The method of multicriteria evaluation, as applied here, incorporates public decision-making in constructing an objective model for buffer zone demarcation. Representatives from interested and affected parties participated in model construction and calibration, resulting in the spatial delimitation of a multifunctional vegetated buffer. It conforms to a range of functional criteria and can serve as an environmental element in coastal conservation planning frameworks.