Decomposing the mid-Holocene Tsuga decline in eastern North America

The mid-Holocene decline of Tsuga canadensis (hereafter Tsuga) populations across eastern North America is widely perceived as a synchronous event, driven by pests/pathogens, rapid climate change, or both. Pattern identification and causal attribution are hampered by low stratigraphic density of pollen-sampling and radiometric dates at most sites, and by absence of highly resolved, paired pollen and paleoclimate records from single sediment cores, where chronological order of climatic and vegetational changes can be assessed. We present an intensely sampled (contiguous 1-cm intervals) record of pollen and water table depth (inferred from testate amoebae) from a single core spanning the Tsuga decline at Irwin Smith Bog in Lower Michigan, with high-precision chronology. We also present an intensively sampled pollen record from Tower Lake in Upper Michigan. Both sites show high-magnitude fluctuations in Tsuga pollen percentages during the pre-decline maximum. The terminal decline is dated at both sites ca. 5000 cal yr BP, some 400 years later than estimates from other sites and data compilations. The terminal Tsuga decline was evidently heterochronous across its range. A transient decline ca. 5350 cal yr BP at both sites may correspond to the terminal decline at other sites in eastern North America. At Irwin Smith Bog, the terminal Tsuga decline preceded an abrupt and persistent decline in water table depths by approximately 200 years, suggesting the decline was not directly driven by abrupt climate change. The Tsuga decline may best be viewed as comprising at least three phases: a long-duration pre-decline maximum with high-magnitude and high-frequency fluctuations, followed by a terminal decline at individual sites, followed in turn by two millennia of persistently low Tsuga populations. These phases may not be causally linked, and may represent dynamics taking place at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Further progress toward understanding the phenomenon requires an expanded network of high-resolution pollen and paleoclimate chronologies.     

Genetic differentiation ofMytilus edulis in eastern North America

There is significant differentiation at five polymorphic loci ofMytilus edulis among certain geographical areas of the Atlantic coast of North America. Non-metric multidimensional numerical methods distinguished three population groups: (I) populations south of Cape Cod, (II) populations throughout the Gulf of Maine, Gulf of St. Lawrence, areas of both southern and northern Newfoundland, and southern Hudson Bay, and (III) populations in southeastern Nova Scotia, northern Newfoundland and Hudson Strait, Quebec. Each subset consists of populations that exhibit characteristic multilocus, multiple allele genotypes. Populations in Groups II and III are spatially interdigitated among each other. At least one geographical area of mixing between genetically distinct populations occurs in northeastern Newfoundland. There is no evidence for interbreeding among genetically distinct individuals in mixed populations, suggesting the possibility that populations in the Atlantic Canadian Provinces and areas of northern Canada may consist of two distinct species.     

Monarch butterfly migration and parasite transmission in eastern North America

Seasonal migration occurs in many animal systems and is likely to influence interactions between animals and their parasites. Here, we focus on monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) and a protozoan parasite (Ophryocystis elektroscirrha) to investigate how host migration affects infectious disease processes. Previous work showed that parasite prevalence was lower among migratory than nonmigratory monarch populations; two explanations for this pattern are that (1) migration allows animals to periodically escape contaminated habitats (i.e., migratory escape), and (2) long-distance migration weeds out infected animals (i.e., migratory culling). We combined field-sampling and analysis of citizen science data to examine spatiotemporal trends of parasite prevalence and evaluate evidence for these two mechanisms. Analysis of within-breeding-season variation in eastern North America showed that parasite prevalence increased from early to late in the breeding season, consistent with the hypothesis of migratory escape. Prevalence was also positively related to monarch breeding activity, as indexed by larval density. Among adult monarchs captured at different points along the east coast fall migratory flyway, parasite prevalence declined as monarchs progressed southward, consistent with the hypothesis of migratory culling. Parasite prevalence was also lower among monarchs sampled at two overwintering sites in Mexico than among monarchs sampled during the summer breeding period. Collectively, these results indicate that seasonal migration can affect parasite transmission in wild animal populations, with implications for predicting disease risks for species with threatened migrations.     

Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America

Range expansion by native and exotic species will continue to be a major component of global change. Anticipating the potential effects of changes in species distributions requires models capable of forecasting population spread across realistic, heterogeneous landscapes and subject to spatiotemporal variability in habitat suitability. Several decades of theory and model development, as well as increased computing power and availability of fine-resolution GIS data, now make such models possible. Still unanswered, however, is the question of how well this new generation of dynamic models will anticipate range expansion. Here we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model that combines dynamic dispersal and population processes with fine-resolution maps characterizing spatiotemporal heterogeneity in climate and habitat to model range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae). We parameterize this model using multiyear data sets describing population and dispersal dynamics of HWA and apply it to eastern North America over a 57-year period (1951-2008). To evaluate the model, the observed pattern of spread of HWA during this same period was compared to model predictions. Our model predicts considerable heterogeneity in the risk of HWA invasion across space and through time, and it suggests that spatiotemporal variation in winter temperature, rather than hemlock abundance, exerts a primary control on the spread of HWA. Although the simulations generally matched the observed current extent of the invasion of HWA and patterns of anisotropic spread, it did not correctly predict when HWA was observed to arrive in different geographic regions. We attribute differences between the modeled and observed dynamics to an inability to capture the timing and direction of long-distance dispersal events that substantially affected the ensuing pattern of spread.     

Latitudinal patterns of shell thickness and metabolism in the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica along the east coast of North America

The goal of this study was to quantify growth and metabolic responses of oysters to increased temperatures like those that will occur due to global warming. Impact of temperature on eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) shell growth and metabolism was investigated by sampling 24 sites along the eastern North American seaboard ranging from New Brunswick, Canada, to Florida, USA, in March and August 2013. There was a positive correlation between oyster shell thickness and site temperature. At southern sites, shells were up to 65 % thicker than at the northernmost site, likely due to higher precipitation of CaCO₃ in warmer water. This was supported by laboratory experiments showing that thicker shells were produced in response to temperatures 2, 4, and 6 °C above ambient seawater temperatures (8–14 °C) in Connecticut, USA. Field experiments with oyster respiration were conducted during winter and summer at 13 sites to compare responses to thermal stress with latitude. Respiration rates were much higher during summer than winter, but the combination of summer and winter data fell along the same exponential curve with respect to temperature. At all sites, temperature-specific metabolic rates at elevated temperatures were lower than predicted, indicating significant seasonal acclimatization by C. virginica.     

Determinants of seed removal distance by scatter-hoarding rodents in deciduous forests

Scatter-hoarding rodents should space food caches to maximize cache recovery rate (to minimize loss to pilferers) relative to the energetic cost of carrying food items greater distances. Optimization models of cache spacing make two predictions. First, spacing of caches should be greater for food items with greater energy content. Second, the mean distance between caches should increase with food abundance. However, the latter prediction fails to account for the effect of food abundance on the behavior of potential pilferers or on the ability of caching individuals to acquire food by means other than recovering their own caches. When considering these factors, shorter cache distances may be predicted in conditions of higher food abundance. We predicted that seed caching distances would be greater for food items of higher energy content and during lower ambient food abundance and that the effect of seed type on cache distance variation would be lower during higher food abundance. We recorded distances moved for 8636 seeds of five seed types at 15 locations in three forested sites in Pennsylvania, USA, and 29 forest fragments in Indiana, U.S.A., across five different years. Seed production was poor in three years and high in two years. Consistent with previous studies, seeds with greater energy content were moved farther than less profitable food items. Seeds were dispersed less far in seed-rich years than in seed-poor years, contrary to predictions of conventional models. Interactions were important, with seed type effects more evident in seed-poor years. These results suggest that, when food is superabundant, optimal cache distances are more strongly determined by minimizing energy cost of caching than by minimizing pilfering rates and that cache loss rates may be more strongly density-dependent in times of low seed abundance.     

Assessment of community-based initiatives in sustainable management of Indian dry deciduous forests

SUMMARY

This work is devoted to analyzing the pros and cons of the proposed San Ignacio Lagoon (SIL) salt production project in Baja California Sur, México. The analysis of the project was done taking into account the technical data of the main potential effects of the SIL project, and by comparing the SIL proposed actions with the data of Ojo de Liebre Lagoon, where an almost identical salt production project has been operating for more than 44 years. The analysis was done from the following perspectives: biodiversity, biosphere reserve management, and socioeconomic development. The resulting analysis of the pros and cons of the SIL salt production project addresses key aspects of sustainable development in Third World nations. The resulting analysis indicates that the SIL salt production project is compatible with the biodiversity conservation of the zone. The SIL salt production project seems to be one of the best options to attain the sustainable use of natural resources of the most arid and isolated zone of all México.     

Frequency, not relative abundance, of temperate tree species varies along climate gradients in eastern North America

There have been many attempts to model the impacts of climate change on the distributions of temperate tree species, but empirical analyses of the effects of climate on the distribution and abundance of tree species have lagged far behind the models. Here, we used forest inventory data to characterize variation in adult tree abundance along climate gradients for the 24 most common tree species in the northeastern United States. The two components of our measure of species abundance--local frequency vs. relative abundance--showed dramatically different patterns of variation along gradients of mean annual temperature and precipitation. Local frequency (i.e., the percentage of plots in a given climate in which a species occurred) varied strongly for all 24 species, particularly as a function of temperature. Relative abundance when present in a plot, on the other hand, was effectively constant for most species right up to their estimated climatic range limits. Although the range limits for both temperature and precipitation were quite broad for all of the species, the range of climates within which a species was common (i.e., high frequency) was much narrower. Because frequency in sites within a given climate shows a strong sensitivity to temperature, at least, this suggests that the processes determining canopy tree recruitment on new sites also vary strongly with climate.     

Meta-analysis of avian and small-mammal response to fire severity and fire surrogate treatments in U.S. fire-prone forests

Management in fire-prone ecosystems relies widely upon application of prescribed fire and/or fire surrogate (e.g., forest thinning) treatments to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function. Recently, published literature examining wildlife response to fire and fire management has increased rapidly. However, none of this literature has been synthesized quantitatively, precluding assessment of consistent patterns of wildlife response among treatment types. Using meta-analysis, we examined the scientific literature on vertebrate demographic responses to burn severity (low/moderate, high), fire surrogates (forest thinning), and fire and fire surrogate combined treatments in the most extensively studied fire-prone, forested biome (forests of the United States). Effect sizes (magnitude of response) and their 95% confidence limits (response consistency) were estimated for each species-by-treatment combination with two or more observations. We found 41 studies of 119 bird and 17 small-mammal species that examined short-term responses (< or =4 years) to thinning, low/moderate- and high-severity fire, and thinning plus prescribed fire; data on other taxa and at longer time scales were too sparse to permit quantitative assessment. At the stand scale (<50 ha), thinning and low/moderate-severity fire demonstrated similar response patterns in these forests. Combined thinning plus prescribed fire produced a higher percentage of positive responses. High-severity fire provoked stronger responses, with a majority of species possessing higher or lower effect sizes relative to fires of lower severity. In the short term and at fine spatial scales, fire surrogate forest-thinning treatments appear to effectively mimic low/moderate-severity fire, whereas low/moderate-severity fire is not a substitute for high-severity fire. The varied response of taxa to each of the four conditions considered makes it clear that the full range of fire-based disturbances (or their surrogates) is necessary to maintain a full complement of vertebrate species, including fire-sensitive taxa. This is especially true for high-severity fire, where positive responses from many avian taxa suggest that this disturbance (either as wildfire or prescribed fire) should be included in management plans where it is consistent with historic fire regimes and where maintenance of regional vertebrate biodiversity is a goal.     

Avifaunal responses to fire in southwestern montane forests along a burn severity gradient.

The effects of burn severity on avian communities are poorly understood, yet this information is crucial to fire management programs. To quantify avian response patterns along a burn severity gradient, we sampled 49 random plots (2001-2002) at the 17351-ha Cerro Grande Fire (2000) in New Mexico, USA. Additionally, pre-fire avian surveys (1986-1988, 1990) created a unique opportunity to quantify avifaunal changes in 13 pre-fire transects (resampled in 2002) and to compare two designs for analyzing the effects of unplanned disturbances: after-only analysis and before-after comparisons. Distance analysis was used to calculate densities. We analyzed after-only densities for 21 species using gradient analysis, which detected a broad range of responses to increasing burn severity: (I) large significant declines, (II) weak, but significant declines, (III) no significant density changes, (IV) peak densities in low- or moderate-severity patches, (V) weak, but significant increases, and (VI) large significant increases. Overall, 71% of the species included in the after-only gradient analysis exhibited either positive or neutral density responses to fire effects across all or portions of the severity gradient (responses III-VI). We used pre/post pairs analysis to quantify density changes for 15 species using before-after comparisons; spatiotemporal variation in densities was large and confounded fire effects for most species. Only four species demonstrated significant effects of burn severity, and their densities were all higher in burned compared to unburned forests. Pre- and post-fire community similarity was high except in high-severity areas. Species richness was similar pre- and post-fire across all burn severities. Thus, ecosystem restoration programs based on the assumption that recent severe fires in Southwestern ponderosa pine forests have overriding negative ecological effects are not supported by our study of post-fire avian communities. This study illustrates the importance of quantifying burn severity and controlling confounding sources of spatiotemporal variation in studies of fire effects. After-only gradient analysis can be an efficient tool for quantifying fire effects. This analysis can also augment historical data sets that have small samples sizes coupled with high non-process variation, which limits the power of before-after comparisons.     

Electrophoretic and biometric variability in the abyssal grenadier Coryphaenoides armatus of the western North Atlantic,eastern South Pacific and eastern North Pacific Oceans

Specimens of the abyssal grenadier Coryphaenoides armatus (Hector, 1875), from the western North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Oceans were compared electrophoretically at 27 presumptive gene loci. At 6 of the 7 polymorphic loci there were only minor differences in allelic frequencies but a nearly fixed difference was found at one locus, phosphogluconate dehydrogenase. Eastern North Pacific grenadiers typically have a narrower interorbital space, a shorter dorsal interspace, more soft rays in the 1st dorsal fin (9–10 versus 8–9) and more pelvic fin rays (21–23 versus 18–21) than grenadiers from the western North Atlantic (as well as grenadiers from the eastern South Pacific, which were included in the biometric analysis). There is an apparent disjunction in the distribution of C. armatus in the eastern Pacific at the Gulf of Panamá which coincides with the change of morphology. It is suggested that North Pacific grenadiers comprise a subspecies, C. armatus variabilis Günther, 1878, which is morphologically distinct from the subspecies C. armatus armatus (Hector, 1875) of the other areas.     

Ecological Costs of Livestock Grazing in Western North America

Livestock grazing is the most widespread land management practice in western North America. Seventy percent of the western United States is grazed, including wilderness areas, wildlife refuges, national forests, and even some national parks. The ecological costs of this nearly ubiquitous form of land use can be dramatic. Examples of such costs include loss of biodiversity; lowering of population densities for a wide variety of taxa; disruption of ecosystem functions, including nutrient cycling and succession; change in community organization; and change in the physical characteristics of both terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Because livestock congregate in riparian ecosystems, which are among the biologically richest habitats in arid and semiarid regions, the ecological costs of grazing are magnified in these sites. Range science has traditionally been laden with economic assumptions favoring resource use. Conservation biologists are encouraged to contribute to the ongoing social and scientific dialogue on grazing issues.     

Status of Piping Plovers in the Great Plains of North America: A Demographic Simulation Model

A stochastic population growth model using empirical demographic data confirmed that the Piping Plover population of the Great Plains of North America is declining by more than 7% annually. Unchecked, this decline would result in extirpation in approximately 80 years. When recent adult (0.66) and immature (0.60) survival rates were held constant, a 31% increase—from 0.86 to 1.13 chicks fledged per pair—was needed to stabilize the population. Annual population increases of 1% and 2% required 1.16 and 1.19 chicks per pair, respectively. Such growth would result in the Great Plains population reaching the level—(2550 pairs)—needed for delisting from the U.S. Endangered Species Act protection in 53 and 30 years, respectively. One- and five-year delays in the initiation of 1% population growth caused 13 and 67 year delays respectively in reaching recovery.     

Priorities for Improving the Scientific Foundation of Conservation Policy in North America

Abstract:  The Society for Conservation Biology (SCB) can enhance conservation of biodiversity in North America by increasing its engagement in public policy. Toward this end, the North America Section of SCB is establishing partnerships with other professional organizations in order to speak more powerfully to decision makers and taking other actions—such as increasing interaction with chapters—geared to engage members more substantively in science-policy issues. Additionally, the section is developing a North American Biodiversity Blueprint, which spans the continental United States and Canada and is informed by natural and social science. This blueprint is intended to clarify the policy challenges for protecting continental biodiversity, to foster bilateral collaboration to resolve common problems, and to suggest rational alternative policies and practices that are more likely than current practices to sustain North America's natural heritage. Conservation scientists and practitioners can play a key role by drawing policy makers' attention to ultimate, as well as proximate, causes of biodiversity decline and to the ecological and economic consequences of not addressing these threats.     

Techno-Arrogance and Halfway Technologies: Salmon Hatcheries on the Pacific Coast of North America

Humankind has adopted an arrogant and ultimately self-defeating attitude toward nature that places technological mastery over nature at the forefront of our approach to many environmental problems. This "techno-arrogance" fails to recognize limitations on, and ramifications of, attempted control of nature. An example of techno-arrogance is the flawed attempt to recover Pacific salmonid fisheries through technological application in the form of hatcheries. Countless salmon stocks have declined precipitously over the last century as a result of overfishing and widespread habitat destruction. A central feature of recovery efforts has been to build many hatcheries to produce large quantities of fish to restock streams. This approach addresses the symptoms but not the causes of the declines (an example of a halfway technology), because the habitats remain largely unsuitable for salmon. There are at least six reasons why the hatchery approach will ultimately fail: (1) data demonstrate that hatcheries are not solving the problem—salmon continue to decline despite decades of hatchery production; (2) hatcheries are costly to run, and divert resources from other efforts, such as habitat restoration; (3) hatcheries are not sustainable in the long term, requiring continual input of money and energy, (4) hatcheries are a genetically unsound approach to management that can adversely affect wild populations; (5) hatchery production leads to increased harvest of declining wild populations of salmon; and (6) hatcheries conceal from the public the truth of real salmon decline. I recommend that salmonid management turn from the symptoms to the causes of decline. Overharvest and habitat destruction must be directly addressed in a major, landscape-level effort, on a scale comparable to the hatchery program, if salmonid fisheries are to remain a part of the ecological recreational, commercial and asthetic arenas in the long term.     

Population divergence in the sinistral whelks of North America,with special reference to the east Florida ecotone

This study evaluated models of species relationships among sinistral whelks in the genus Busycon in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Gene frequencies at eight polymorphic allozyme loci, shell morphology, anatomy, and partial DNA sequences for the cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) mitochondrial gene were examined in eight populations, ranging from New Jersey to the Yucatan peninsula, and from the dextrally coiled sister taxon Busycon carica (Gmelin, 1791). Whelks were collected in 1997 and 1998. The maximum COI sequence divergence recorded among 32 sinistral individuals was 1.96%, which together with the absence of any gross or qualitative morphological differences, suggested all eight populations should be considered conspecific. High levels of divergence between the allopatric western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico populations, as revealed by fixed or nearly fixed differences at several allozyme-encoding loci were interpreted as evidence that the east Florida ecotone constitutes a significant barrier to gene flow. Size trimming also revealed several significant quantitative differences in shell and radular morphology between the three pooled Atlantic populations and five pooled Gulf populations. The Yucatan sample was the most distinctive conchologically, with heavy spines and tumid ridges, possibly related to stone crab predation. Based on the evidence all left-handed whelks of North America should be referred to the oldest available nomen, Busycon perversum (Linné, 1758), with three subspecies, B. perversum perversum along the Yucatan peninsula, B. perversum sinistrum (Hollister, 1958) in the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico, and B. perversum laeostomum (Kent, 1982) in the Atlantic.Communicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick     

The influence of aridity and fire on holocene prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula

The role of climate and fire in the development, maintenance, and species composition of prairie in the eastern axis of the tallgrass Prairie Peninsula intrigued early North American ecologists. However, evaluation of the long-standing hypotheses about the region's environmental history has been hampered by the scarcity of paleorecords. We conducted multiproxy analyses on early and middle Holocene sediments from two Illinois, USA, lakes to assess long-term climatic, vegetational, and fire variability in the region. Sediment mineral composition, carbonate delta18O, ostracode assemblages, and diatom assemblages were integrated to infer fluctuations in moisture availability. Pollen and charcoal delta13C were used to reconstruct vegetation composition, and charcoal influx was used to reconstruct fire. Results indicate that fire-sensitive trees (e.g., Ulmus, Ostrya, Fraxinus, and Acer saccharum) declined and prairie taxa expanded with increased aridity from 10,000 yr BP to 8500 yr BP. Between approximately 8500 yr BP and approximately 6200 yr BP, aridity declined, and prairie coexisted with fire-sensitive and fire-tolerant (e.g., Quercus and Carya) trees. After approximately 6200 yr BP, prairie taxa became dominant, although aridity was not more severe than it was around 8500 yr BP. Along with aridity, fire appears to have played an important role in the establishment and maintenance of prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula, consistent with the speculations of the early ecologists. Comparison of our data with results from elsewhere in the North American midcontinent indicates that spatial heterogeneity is a characteristic feature of climatic and vegetational variations on millennial time scales.