Integrated ecological models: simulation of socio-cultural constraints on ecological dynamics

We suggest that general systems theory provides a common philosophical basis for dialog between ecological and social scientists interested in studying the reciprocal interactions of humans and their environment. We (1) provide a synopsis of the ‘systems approach' as viewed from the biological and social sciences, respectively; (2) develop a conceptual framework for the explicit linking of ecological and social variables, and (3) draw upon game theoretic results of the Prisoner's Dilemma to represent human decision-making quantitatively in a model that simulates the tragedy of the commons. The model consists of 5 submodels that represent the ‘observers world' and each of 4 ‘participant's worlds.' The observer's-world represents the decision processes, either Optimize or Tit-for-Tat, by which each of 2 users decides to add or remove animals. The 4 perceived worlds represent hypothetical situations in which (1) persons A and B both add an animal; (2) A adds and B does not; (3) B adds and A does not, and (4) neither A nor B add an animal. Simulation results indicate that net worth of the community and of each person individually under Tit-for-Tat is more than double the net worth attained under Optimize. Replacement of the static payoff matrix assumed in game theory with a dynamic quantitative model illustrates how ‘norm-based' approaches to ecosystem management can outperform optimizing approaches based on predicted outcomes. Although ‘soft systems' techniques may better help decision-makers reach norm-based agreements on ecosystem management, quantitative models have more explanatory value, and if developed sufficiently such models could incorporate complex social dimensions that would enhance further their explanatory value.     

基于生态系统管理的湿地概念生态模型研究

湿地是地球上的一种重要生态系统,基于生态系统管理理念,进行湿地保护与管理,既是湿地科学发展的必然结果.也是当前湿地保护与管理的客观需求.湿地生态模型是以湿地生态系统作为研究对象的模型,是对湿地生态系统组成、结构、过程和功能进行简化、类比或抽象,是用来反映湿地生态系统各种过程和关系的定性或定量化工具.湿地概念生态模型是各类湿地生态模型中最基本的类型,是对湿地生态系统组成及其相互关系的一种简约的定性表达,特别是指人类活动影响下湿地生态系统因子变化及其相互关系的概念性表达.湿地概念生态模型构建的主要目的是旨在识别人类活动对湿地生态系统的驱动与胁迫,这些驱动与胁迫产生的一系列生态效应,以及湿地生态系统对此所表现出来的特征.湿地生态系统是一个多层次、多因子组成的,结构复杂、功能多样、具有多向反馈和调节机制的复杂大系统或巨系统.影响系统状态或驱动系统变化的因子众多,既有来自系统内部的、也有来自系统外部的,它们对系统造成的影响往往具有联动关系和因果效应.湿地概念生态模型就是在生态系统管理理论指导下,将这些系统因子及其关系抽象并提取出来,以"驱动-胁迫-效应-表征"为主线,判断系统变化与演化背后存在的因果关系,构建能够反映系统变化与演化特征和规律的结构性关系网络模型.湿地概念生态模型研究的意义在于在科学与决策之间架起一座桥梁,为实施湿地生态保护与管理提供指导,同时为建立湿地数量化模型奠定基础.     

Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1, 10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.     

华南退化生态系统三种典型生态恢复模式的小气候效应研究

为了评价南亚热带典型退化生态系统典型生态恢复模式的小气候调节效应,从而为退化生态系统生态恢复方式和造林树种的选择提供参照,作者在广东鹤山森林生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站的3种典型生态恢复模式样地,自然恢复草坡、马尾松林（Pinus massoniana）、马占相思林（Acacia mangium）中安装了HOBO小气候仪,对光辐射、风速风向、降水、土壤含水量、地温、气温等小气候指标进行为期1年的自动观测,并进行了对比分析,结果表明,（1）华南退化生态系统3种典型生态恢复模式具有不同的小气候效应,在林间温度调节方面,人工林和草坡的平均林间温度相差不大,但草坡的最低、最高温度均比人工林低和高。人工林的林间温度变化较草坡小,具有更好的保温调节作用。对比2种人工林,不管是平均温度还是最高温度马占相思林都略大于针叶林,而二者最低温度相差不明显。针叶林的保温调节作用略优于阔叶的马占相思林;（2）在土壤温度方面,地表温度全年基本都表现为草坡〉马占相思林〉针叶林,草坡的地表温度的波动远大于2种人工林;全年20 cm土壤温度3─12月都表现为草坡〉马占相思林〉针叶林,1─2月相反,草坡20 cm土层的土壤温度波动相对较大,人工林的波动很小。（3）3种恢复模式中,自然恢复草坡的辐射强度明显高于2种人工林,年辐射总量分别马占相思林和针叶林的1.9和5.8倍,马占相思林的年辐射量为针叶林的3倍。人工林,特别是乡土的针叶林能给林下生物构建更为稳定、适中的辐射环境。（4）人工林的平均林间风速、最大阵风风速均少于草坡,针叶林的风速小于阔叶林,针叶林降低风速的效果好于相思林和草坡。（5）人工林的林间相对湿度均高于草坡,针叶林的林间空气湿度略大于相思林,针叶林的保湿效果更好。在退化生态系统恢复过程中?     

Adequacy of ecosystem models

A formal approach is developed to assess the adequacy of mathematical models to represent a given ecosystem. The procedure is based on the hypothesis that two or several models of an environment can be compared by using a vectorial approach: several model properties are analyzed and related to the model's capability to simulate the observed behaviour and to describe the ecosystem processes. The models are thus ordered from the standpoint of their adequacy. One preliminary model, a more recent one, and four lumped versions of the latter have been tested for adequacy. These models were developed by Wiegert and they describe the behaviour of an algal-fly community energetics in a thermal spring. Results obtained by our procedure agree with Wiegert's but some new points have been emphasized.     

Enhancing generic ecological model for short-term prediction of Southern North Sea algal dynamics with remote sensing images

Physically based numerical modelling follows from the basic understanding of the underlying mechanisms and is often represented by a set of (partial differential) equations. It is one of the main approaches in population dynamics modelling. The emphasis of the model introduced in this paper is on the simulation of short-term spatial and temporal dynamics of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events. Total suspended matter (TSM) concentration is one of the dominant factors for harmful algal bloom (HAB) prediction in North Sea. However, the modelling of suspended matter contains a high degree of uncertainty in this area. Therefore, this research aims to achieve a better estimation for the short-term prediction of harmful algal bloom development in both space and time by using spatially distributed TSM retrieved from remotely sensed images as physically based model inputs. In order to supply complete spatially covered datasets for the physically based model instrument: generic ecological model (GEM), this research retrieves TSM information from MERIS images by means of proper estimation techniques including biharmonic splines and self-learning cellular automata. A better estimation of HAB spatial pattern development is achieved by adding spatially distributed TSM data as inputs to original GEM model, and it proved that chlorophyll-a concentration in this area is very sensitive to TSM concentration.     

The dual nature of ecosystem dynamics

Mechanistic simulation modeling has not generally delivered on its promise to turn ecology into more of a “hard” science. Rather, it appears that deeper insights into ecosystem functioning may derive from a new set of metaphysical assumptions about how nature functions. Force laws from physics are fundamentally incompatible with the heterogeneity and uniqueness that characterizes ecosystems. Instead, coherence, selection and centripetality are imparted to ecological systems by concatenations of beneficial processes—a generalized form of autocatalysis. These structure-enhancing configurations of processes are opposed by the ineluctable tendency of structure to decay (as required by the second law of thermodynamics). The dual nature of this agonism can be quantified using information theory, which also can be used to measure the potential of the system for further evolution. The balance point for these countervailing tendencies seems to coincide with the state of maximal potential for the system to evolve. In an ostensible paradox, the same locus seems to attract stable, persistent system configurations.     

Eigengroup analyses of linear ecosystem models

Eigenvalue analysis has been widely used for characterization of model ecosystems, and utilization of the total eigensystem information has been demonstrated for ecosystem models. Solution of the unique eigenvectors, termed eigengroups, associated with specified perturbation initial conditions allows proper assignment of the ecosystem model content to each exponential decay function. Such eigengroup solutions of Monte Carlo assigned perturbations are reported here for a nine-compartment tropical moist forest phosphorus model and for a set of seven six-compartment general nutrient cycling models. Confirmed by CSMP III STIFF numerical integration, results indicate that the dynamics of these multi-compartment models, each having many internal closed cycles, are adequately described by only one or two exponential decay functions, even at massive perturbation levels. For these models, conjugate complex noncritical eigenvalues were found to be common, but the decay rates of the envelopes of oscillation are consistently so rapid that system-intrinsic oscillations are undetectable. The techniques used here are presented as efficient means of identifying the transient response space of linear ecosystem models.     

Relative stability of ecosystem linear models

A method to test the relative stability of ecosystem linear models is developed. This method uses the eigenvalue sensitivity to parameter perturbations to compute the relative stability of the model. The procedure is applied to the analysis of two models describing the ca;cium cycle in a forested watershed ecosystem and the magnesium cycle in a tropical rain forest respectively.     

森林生态系统生态资产核算的模式与方法

全球变化背景下.植被对CO2的减排作用得到了广泛关注.森林生态系统具有诸多功能,不同功能的货币化基准难以统一,是进行总体生态资产价值定量核算的制约要素.在资源、环境与生态经济原理指导下,分析相关方法评估生态系统生态资产的可行性,选择量化评估参数,并通过多种模式与方法进行估算乌鲁木齐城市2004年森林生态系统的生态资产.森林生态系统涵养水源类、生物多样性维持类、净化空气类、保护土壤类以及大气调节类生态资产分别为0.224 8×108元、10.608 8x108元、0.630 8×108元、0.2592×108元及12.9653×108元,乌鲁木齐市森林生态总资产为24.6889×108元.各类生态资产具有一定的时空差异性.城市森林生态系统生态资产估算模式及方法的研究具有重要的理论价值与现实意义.     

Boosted trees for ecological modeling and prediction

Accurate prediction and explanation are fundamental objectives of statistical analysis, yet they seldom coincide. Boosted trees are a statistical learning method that attains both of these objectives for regression and classification analyses. They can deal with many types of response variables (numeric, categorical, and censored), loss functions (Gaussian, binomial, Poisson, and robust), and predictors (numeric, categorical). Interactions between predictors can also be quantified and visualized. The theory underpinning boosted trees is presented, together with interpretive techniques. A new form of boosted trees, namely, "aggregated boosted trees" (ABT), is proposed and, in a simulation study, is shown to reduce prediction error relative to boosted trees. A regression data set is analyzed using ABT to illustrate the technique and to compare it with other methods, including boosted trees, bagged trees, random forests, and generalized additive models. A software package for ABT analysis using the R software environment is included in the Appendices together with worked examples.     

The role of predation in ecosystem models

Ecosystem models must convert a naturally open system into a theoretically closed one. For phytoplankton-herbivore models the form for the parameterization of predation on the herbivores can have a significant effect on the remainder of the model.     

Bridging biogeochemical and food web models for an End-to-End representation of marine ecosystem dynamics: The Venice lagoon case study

The simultaneous accounting of effects of natural and anthropogenic changes within a common framework calls for the development of new comprehensive tools capable of integrating biological processes that span a huge range of scales, from viruses to fishes, in addition to their interactions with physical–chemical environmental properties, i.e. End-to-End models.     

Some long term dynamics of predator-prey models with diffusion

This paper analyzes the long term time dynamics of theoretical predator-prey systems in a continuous medium with constant diffusion. It is shown that oscillatory or unstable predator-prey interactions will lead to patchy distributions and that unstable interactions will persist for very long periods of time when diffusion is operating. Some of the problems of sampling and parameter estimation of data from patchy distributions are examined and discussed.     

村落生态系统分布特征和模式的探讨

村落生态系统的分布是地表突出和普遍的现象。本文概括总结了区域性村落生态系统分布的一般性原则，其分布特征表现为景观性、分散集聚性、动态迁移性、梯度性、趋适性、界限性以及人文性等各个方面；对诸如平原、山区、湖区、盆地、丘陵台地、岛屿以及过渡区等各种地貌类型区提出相应的理论分布模式。     

青岛市生态足迹动态研究

利用生态足迹和生态承载力度量和评价1995—2004年间的青岛市可持续发展程度。结果发现,随着经济的发展和社会的进步青岛市的生态足迹显著上升,各类用地都呈现增加趋势,耕地增加程度最大,而水域则表现出不稳定;承载力明显下降,其中主要是耕地承载力下降,林地、水域等其他用地则有相对的提高。生态足迹和承载力的变化造成生态赤字进一步加大。将单位生态足迹内产生的GDP作为生态效率,可以发现青岛市的生态效率呈现增加趋势,表明青岛市的资源利用效率明显增加。按照1995到2004年的发展趋势,青岛在未来十年的生态赤字将进一步加大,通过科学技术提高生态效率是青岛降低生态赤字的主要途径。文章首次分析了青岛市的生态足迹动态,提出了降低生态赤字的途径,为青岛市的可持续发展提供了理论参考。     

Ungulate population dynamics and optimization models

Optimal harvesting strategies for an ungulate population are estimated using stochastic dynamic programming. Data on the Llano Basin white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population were used to construct a 2-variable population dynamics model. The model provided the basis for estimating optimal harvesting strategies as a feedback function of the current values of the state variables (prefawning older deer and juveniles). Optimal harvest strategies were insensitive to assumptions about the probability distributions of the stochastic variable (rainfall). The response of the population components to harvesting and the returns obtained from applying optimal strategies were explored through simulation. Mean annual harvest is about 15% of the population. Simplified harvesting strategies based on age-ratios as well as a simplified version based on optimal strategies—but assuming persisting equilibrium juvenile deer density—were compared to optimal strategies through examining values of information. Simplified harvesting strategies lead to a lower harvest over a 50-year simulation period.     

Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models

We present a method of multi-criteria assessment for the analysis of process model uncertainty that combines analysis of model structure, parameters and data requirements. There are three components in calculation and definition of uncertainty.

(1)

Assessment criteria: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the model can simultaneously simulate an increased number of assessment criteria selected to test specific aspects of the theory being investigated, and within acceptable limits set for those criteria. This reduces incomplete specification of the model—the characteristic that a model may explain some, but not all, of the observed features of a phenomenon. The calculation required is computation of the Pareto set which provides the list of simultaneously achieved criteria within specified ranges.     

Measuring impacts on species with models and metrics of varying ecological and computational complexity

Approaches to assess the impacts of landscape disturbance scenarios on species range from metrics based on patterns of occurrence or habitat to comprehensive models that explicitly include ecological processes. The choice of metrics and models affects how impacts are interpreted and conservation decisions. We explored the impacts of 3 realistic disturbance scenarios on 4 species with different ecological and taxonomic traits. We used progressively more complex models and metrics to evaluate relative impact and rank of scenarios on the species. Models ranged from species distribution models that relied on implicit assumptions about environmental factors and species presence to highly parameterized spatially explicit population models that explicitly included ecological processes and stochasticity. Metrics performed consistently in ranking different scenarios in order of severity primarily when variation in impact was driven by habitat amount. However, they differed in rank for cases where dispersal dynamics were critical in influencing metapopulation persistence. Impacts of scenarios on species with low dispersal ability were better characterized using models that explicitly captured these processes. Metapopulation capacity provided rank orders that most consistently correlated with those from highly parameterized and data-rich models and incorporated information about dispersal with little additional computational and data cost. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering species’ ecology, spatial configuration of habitat, and disturbance when choosing indicators of species persistence. We suggest using hybrid approaches that are a mixture of simple and complex models to improve multispecies assessments.