Putting Longline Bycatch of Sea Turtles into Perspective

Abstract:  Although some sea turtle populations are showing encouraging signs of recovery, others continue to decline. Reversing population declines requires an understanding of the primary factor(s) that underlie this persistent demographic trend. The list of putative factors includes direct turtle and egg harvest, egg predation, loss or degradation of nesting beach habitat, fisheries bycatch, pollution, and large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and nutrient availability. Recently, fisheries bycatch, in particular bycatch from longline fisheries, has received increased attention and has been proposed as a primary source of turtle mortality. We reviewed the existing data on the relative impact of longline bycatch on sea turtle populations. Although bycatch rates from individual longline vessels are extremely low, the amount of gear deployed by longline vessels suggests that cumulative bycatch of turtles from older age classes is substantial. Current estimates suggest that even if pelagic longlines are not the largest single source of fisheries-related mortality, longline bycatch is high enough to warrant management actions in all fleets that encounter sea turtles. Nevertheless, preliminary data also suggest that bycatch from gillnets and trawl fisheries is equally high or higher than longline bycatch with far higher mortality rates. Until gillnet and trawl fisheries are subject to the same level of scrutiny given to pelagic longlines, our understanding of the overall impact of fisheries bycatch on vulnerable sea turtle populations will be incomplete.     

Hidden demographic impacts of fishing and environmental drivers of fecundity in a sea turtle population

Fisheries bycatch is a critical threat to sea turtle populations worldwide, particularly because turtles are vulnerable to multiple gear types. The Canary Current is an intensely fished region, yet there has been no demographic assessment integrating bycatch and population management information of the globally significant Cabo Verde loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) population. Using Boa Vista island (Eastern Cabo Verde) subpopulation data from capture–recapture and nest monitoring (2013–2019), we evaluated population viability and estimated regional bycatch rates (2016–2020) in longline, trawl, purse-seine, and artisanal fisheries. We further evaluated current nesting trends in the context of bycatch estimates, existing hatchery conservation measures, and environmental (net primary productivity) variability in turtle foraging grounds. We projected that current bycatch mortality rates would lead to the near extinction of the Boa Vista subpopulation. Bycatch reduction in longline fisheries and all fisheries combined would increase finite population growth rate by 1.76% and 1.95%, respectively. Hatchery conservation increased hatchling production and reduced extinction risk, but alone it could not achieve population growth. Short-term increases in nest counts (2013–2021), putatively driven by temporary increases in net primary productivity, may be masking ongoing long-term population declines. When fecundity was linked to net primary productivity, our hindcast models simultaneously predicted these opposing long-term and short-term trends. Consequently, our results showed conservation management must diversify from land-based management. The masking effect we found has broad-reaching implications for monitoring sea turtle populations worldwide, demonstrating the importance of directly estimating adult survival and that nest counts might inadequately reflect underlying population trends.     

Albatross populations in peril: a population trajectory for black-browed albatrosses at south Georgia.

Simulation modeling was used to reconstruct Black-browed Albatross (Diomedea melanophris) population trends. Close approximations to observed data were accomplished by annually varying survival rates, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years. The temporal shift in annual values coincided with the start of longline fishing at South Georgia and potential changes in krill abundance. We used 23 years of demographic data from long-term studies of a breeding colony of this species at Bird Island, South Georgia, to validate our model. When we used annual parameter estimates for survival, reproductive success, and probabilities of returning to breed given success in previous years, our model trajectory closely followed the observed changes in breeding population size over time. Population growth rate was below replacement (lambda < 1) in most years and was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. This supports the recent IUCN uplisting of this species from "Vulnerable" to "Endangered." Comparison of pre-1988 and post-1988 demography (before and after the inception of a longline fishery in the breeding area) reveals a decrease in lambda from 0.963 to 0.910. A life table response experiment (LTRE) showed that this decline in lambda was caused mostly by declines in survival of adults. If 1988-1998 demographic rates are maintained, the model predicts a 98% chance of a population of fewer than 25 pairs within 78 years. For this population to recover to a status under which it could be "delisted," a 10% increase in survival of all age classes would be needed.     

Lessons from seabird conservation in Alaskan longline fisheries

Although bycatch of seabirds and other long-lived species is a critical conservation issue in world fisheries, case studies documenting significant reductions in the mortality of these low-productivity species in a fishery are rare. We studied progress toward seabird conservation in the Alaskan longline fisheries, one of the largest and most diverse demersal fisheries. We generated annual seabird bycatch rates in 4 target fisheries and all fisheries combined from 23 years of fisheries observer data. We used 0-inflated negative binomial models to evaluate variables influencing seabird bycatch per unit effort (BPUE) in 2 target fisheries. Following adoption of streamer lines, at first voluntarily and then mandatorily, seabird BPUE was reduced by 77–90%, preventing mortality of thousands of birds per year. Despite this, BPUE increased significantly in 2 of 4 target fisheries since streamer lines were adopted. Although night setting yielded significant reductions (74–97%) in seabird BPUE and significant increases (7–11%) in fish catch per unit effort over daytime setting, nighttime setting increased the BPUE of Northern Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) by 40% and nontarget fish species by 5–17%. Thus, best practices to prevent seabird mortalities in longline fisheries varied by species assemblage and fishery. Our results inform global efforts toward fisheries bycatch reduction by illustrating that successful conservation requires fishery-specific solutions, strong industry support, constant vigilance in analysis and reporting observer data, and ongoing outreach to fleets, especially to vessels with anomalously high BPUE.     

Cost‐Effectiveness of Alternative Conservation Strategies with Application to the Pacific Leatherback Turtle

Although holistic conservation addressing all sources of mortality for endangered species or stocks is the preferred conservation strategy, limited budgets require a criterion to prioritize conservation investments. We compared the cost‐effectiveness of nesting site and at‐sea conservation strategies for Pacific leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea). We sought to determine which conservation strategy or mix of strategies would produce the largest increase in population growth rate per dollar. Alternative strategies included protection of nesters and their eggs at nesting beaches in Indonesia, gear changes, effort restrictions, and caps on turtle takes in the Hawaiian (U.S.A.) longline swordfish fishery, and temporal and area closures in the California (U.S.A.) drift gill net fishery. We used a population model with a biological metric to measure the effects of conservation alternatives. We normalized all effects by cost to prioritize those strategies with the greatest biological effect relative to its economic cost. We used Monte Carlo simulation to address uncertainty in the main variables and to calculate probability distributions for cost‐effectiveness measures. Nesting beach protection was the most cost‐effective means of achieving increases in leatherback populations. This result creates the possibility of noncompensatory bycatch mitigation, where high‐bycatch fisheries invest in protecting nesting beaches. An example of this practice is U.S. processors of longline tuna and California drift gill net fishers that tax themselves to finance low‐cost nesting site protection. Under certain conditions, fisheries interventions, such as technologies that reduce leatherback bycatch without substantially decreasing target species catch, can be cost‐effective. Reducing bycatch in coastal areas where bycatch is high, particularly adjacent to nesting beaches, may be cost‐effective, particularly, if fisheries in the area are small and of little commercial value. Rentabilidad de Estrategias de Conservación Alternativas Aplicadas a Tortugas Laúd del Pacífico     

Identifying and mapping local bycatch hotspots of loggerhead sea turtles using a GIS-based method: implications for conservation

Fisheries bycatch of marine megafauna is a worldwide conservation issue. In this study, we propose a method for generating reliable maps of sea turtle bycatch hotspots. Based on a well-defined area of fishing effort determined from the longline sets monitored in 2007 and 2010, we calculated the fishing area with the highest turtle bycatch density for both years. Our results show that it is important to consider all the components of fishing effort (area, number of hooks and soak time) in order to standardize the bycatch events, and thus the spatial density of the captures can be considered an index of abundance and aggregation of the species. Moreover, the high-resolution level of the analyses was useful for investigating the cumulative effect of the longline sets, which often overlap, and made it possible to correctly map the capture density and the intensity of the fishing effort at any given location.     

Generation time and the maximum growth rate for populations with age-specific fecundities and unknown juvenile survival

In age-classified population models where all parameters are known, the generation time and growth rate are calculated in a straightforward manner. For many populations, some parameters, such as juvenile survival, are difficult to estimate accurately. In a simplified population model where fecundity and survival are constant from the onset of breeding, it is known that generation time may be calculated given only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the population growth rate. However, the assumption of constant fecundity from the onset of breeding does not hold for many populations. An extended population model allows calculation of generation time with the additional knowledge of the ratio of age-specific fecundities compared to a maximum fecundity rate. When these relative fecundities are unknown, an ad hoc adjustment to the simplified model performs well.When the study population is in an ideal environment, the optimal generation time and maximum growth rate are linked, and both may be approximated knowing only adult survival, age at first reproduction, and the relative fecundities. The maximum growth rate has important conservation implications, and calculating it correctly is therefore important. Improper use of the simplified population model to calculate the maximum growth rate, combined with a simple decision rule, leads to an average overharvest of 36%, and >60% for three of six bird species studied, compared to the full population model. By comparison, using the approximation from the extended or adjusted models results in average overharvests of only 8% (extended model) and 5% (adjusted model), and <50% for all six species (either model).     

Bycatch of Marine Mammals in U.S. and Global Fisheries

Abstract:  Fisheries bycatch poses a significant threat to many populations of marine mammals, but there are few published estimates of the magnitude of these catches. We estimated marine mammal bycatch in U.S. fisheries from 1990 to 1999 with data taken from the stock assessment reports required by the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The mean annual bycatch of marine mammals during this period was 6215 ± 448 (SE). Bycatch of cetaceans and pinnipeds occurred in similar numbers. Most cetacean (84%) and pinniped (98%) bycatch occurred in gill-net fisheries. Marine mammal bycatch declined significantly over the decade, primarily because of a reduction in the bycatch of cetaceans. Total marine mammal bycatch was significantly lower after the implementation of take reduction measures in the latter half of the decade. We derived a crude first estimate of marine mammal bycatch in the world's fisheries by expanding U.S. bycatch with data on fleet composition from the Food and Agriculture Organization. The global bycatch of marine mammals is in the hundreds of thousands. Bycatch is likely to have significant demographic effects on many populations of marine mammals. Better data are urgently needed to fully understand the impact of these interactions.     

Ecological metrics of biomass removed by three methods of purse-seine fishing for tunas in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

An ecosystem approach to fisheries management is a widely recognized goal, but describing and measuring the effects of a fishery on an ecosystem is difficult. Ecological information on the entire catch (all animals removed, whether retained or discarded) of both species targeted by the fishery and nontarget species (i.e., bycatch) is required. We used data from the well-documented purse-seine fishery for tunas (Thunnus albacares, T. obesus, and Katsuwonus pelamis) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to examine the fishery's ecological effects. Purse-seine fishing in the eastern tropical Pacific is conducted in 3 ways that differ in the amount and composition of target species and bycatch. The choice of method depends on whether the tunas are swimming alone (unassociated sets), associated with dolphins (dolphin sets), or associated with floating objects (floating-object sets). Among the fishing methods, we compared catch on the basis of weight, number of individuals, trophic level, replacement time, and diversity. Floating-object sets removed 2-3 times as much biomass as the other 2 methods, depending on how removal was measured. Results of previous studies suggest the ecological effects of floating-object sets are thousands of times greater than the effects of other methods, but these results were derived from only numbers of discarded animals. Management of the fishery has been driven to a substantial extent by a focus on reducing bycatch, although discards are currently 4.8% of total catch by weight, compared with global averages of 7.5% for tuna longline fishing and 30.0% for midwater trawling. An ecosystem approach to fisheries management requires that ecological effects of fishing on all animals removed by a fishery, not just bycatch or discarded catch, be measured with a variety of metrics.     

Managing conflicts between economic activities and threatened migratory marine species toward creating a multiobjective blue economy

Harnessing the economic potential of the oceans is key to combating poverty, enhancing food security, and strengthening economies. But the concomitant risk of intensified resource extraction to migratory species is worrying given these species contribute to important ecological processes, often underpin alternative livelihoods, and are mostly already threatened. We thus sought to quantify the potential conflict between key economic activities (5 fisheries and hydrocarbon exploitation) and sea turtle migration corridors in a region with rapid economic development: southern and eastern Africa. We satellite tracked the movement of 20 loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and 14 leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) turtles during their postnesting migrations. We used movement‐based kernel density estimation to identify migration corridors for each species. We overlaid these corridors on maps of the distribution and intensity of economic activities, quantified the extent of overlap and threat posed by each activity on each species, and compared the effects of activities. These results were compared with annual bycatch rates in the respective fisheries. Both species’ 3 corridors overlapped most with longline fishing, but the effect was worse for leatherbacks: their bycatch rates of approximately 1500/year were substantial relative to the regional population size of <100 nesting females/annum. This bycatch rate is likely slowing population growth. Artisanal fisheries may be of greater concern for loggerheads than for leatherbacks, but the population appears to be withstanding the high bycatch rates because it is increasing exponentially. The hydrocarbon industry currently has a moderately low impact on both species, but mining in key areas (e.g., Southern Mozambique) may undermine >50 years of conservation, potentially affecting >80% of loggerheads, 33% of the (critically endangered) leatherbacks, and their nesting beaches. We support establishing blue economies (i.e., generating wealth from the ocean), but oceans need to be carefully zoned and responsibly managed in both space and time to achieve economic (resource extraction), ecological (conservation, maintenance of processes), and social (maintenance of alternative livelihood opportunities, alleviate poverty) objectives.     

Trade‐offs among Catch,Bycatch, and Landed Value in the American Samoa Longline Fishery

The interspecific preferences of fishes for different depths and habitats suggest fishers could avoid unwanted catches of some species while still effectively targeting other species. In pelagic longline fisheries, albacore (Thunnus alalunga) are often caught in relatively cooler, deeper water (>100 m) than many species of conservation concern (e.g., sea turtles, billfishes, and some sharks) that are caught in shallower water (<100 m). From 2007 to 2011, we examined the depth distributions of hooks for 1154 longline sets (3,406,946 hooks) and recorded captures by hook position on 2642 sets (7,829,498 hooks) in the American Samoa longline fishery. Twenty‐three percent of hooks had a settled depth <100 m. Individuals captured in the 3 shallowest hook positions accounted for 18.3% of all bycatch. We analyzed hypothetical impacts for 25 of the most abundant species caught in the fishery by eliminating the 3 shallowest hook positions under scenarios with and without redistribution of these hooks to deeper depths. Distributions varied by species: 45.5% (n = 10) of green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas), 59.5% (n = 626) of shortbill spearfish (Tetrapturus angustirostris), 37.3% (n = 435) of silky shark (Carcharhinus falciformis), and 42.6% (n = 150) of oceanic whitetip shark (C. longimanus) were caught on the 3 shallowest hooks. Eleven percent (n = 20,435) of all tuna and 8.5% (n = 10,374) of albacore were caught on the 3 shallowest hooks. Hook elimination reduced landed value by 1.6–9.2%, and redistribution of hooks increased average annual landed value relative to the status quo by 5–11.7%. Based on these scenarios, redistribution of hooks to deeper depths may provide an economically feasible modification to longline gear that could substantially reduce bycatch for a suite of vulnerable species. Our results suggest that this method may be applicable to deep‐set pelagic longline fisheries worldwide. Compensaciones entre Captura, Captura Accesoria y Valores Asentados en la Pesquera de Línea Larga de Samoa Americana     

Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.     

Oceanographic influences on the dive behavior of juvenile loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) in the North Pacific Ocean

Satellite telemetry data from 17 juvenile loggerhead turtles (43.5–66.5 cm straight carapace length) were used in conjunction with oceanographic data to analyze the influence of regional and seasonal oceanography on dive behavior in the North Pacific Ocean. Combined dive behavior for all individuals showed that turtles spent more than 80% of their time at depths <5 m, and more than 90% of their time at depths <15 m. Multivariate classifications of dive data revealed four major dive types, three representing deeper, longer dives, and one representing shallower dives shorter in duration. Turtles exhibited variability in these dive types across oceanographic regions, with deeper, longer dives in the Hawaii longline swordfish fishing grounds during the first quarter of the year, as well as in the Kuroshio Extension Bifurcation Region and the region near the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico. Turtles in the Kuroshio Extension Bifurcation Region also exhibited dive variability associated with mesoscale eddy features, with turtles making deeper, longer dives while associated with the strongest total kinetic energy. Turtles in the central North Pacific exhibited seasonality in dive behavior that appeared to reflect synchronous latitudinal movements with the North Pacific Subtropical Front and the associated seasonal, large-scale oceanography. Turtles made deeper, longer dives during the first quarter of the year within this region, the reported time and area where the highest loggerhead bycatch occurs by the longline fishery. These results represent the first comprehensive study of dive data for this species in this region. The increased understanding of juvenile loggerhead dive behavior and the influences of oceanography on dive variability should provide further insight into why interactions with longline fisheries occur and suggest methods for reducing the bycatch of this threatened species.     

A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.     

Life and Death in the Fast Lane: Demographic Consequences of Road Mortality in the Florida Scrub-Jay

Abstract: We examined the demographic consequences of road mortality in the cooperatively breeding Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens ), a threatened species restricted to the oak scrub of peninsular Florida. Between May 1986 and July 1995 we monitored the survival and reproductive success of a color-banded population of jays along a two-lane highway at Archbold Biological Station. Annual mortality of breeding adults was 0.38 on road territories, significantly higher than the rate of 0.23 for breeders on nonroad territories. High mortality on road territories appeared to be a direct result of automobile traffic per se and not a consequence of road-induced changes in habitat characteristics. Mortality was especially high for immigrants without previous experience living along the road: in their first two years as breeders on road territories, naive immigrants experienced annual mortality of 0.50 and 0.45. From year 3 onward, however, annual mortality dropped to 0.29, not significantly different from the rate for birds on nonroad territories. This experience-dependent decline in road mortality could be caused either by surviving jays learning to avoid automobiles or by selective mortality operating through time (demographic heterogeneity). Proximity to the road had no effect on nesting success beyond its indirect effects on breeder experience and group size. Because the mortality of 30- to 90-day-old fledglings was significantly higher on road territories than on nonroad territories, however, breeder mortality greatly exceeded production of yearlings on road territories. Roadside territories therefore are sinks that can maintain populations of Florida Scrub-Jays only via immigration. Because Florida Scrub-Jays do not avoid roadside habitats and may even be attracted to them, road mortality presents a difficult challenge for the management and conservation of this threatened and declining species.     

Decoupling of component and ensemble density feedbacks in birds and mammals

A component density feedback represents the effect of change in population size on single demographic rates, whereas an ensemble density feedback captures that effect on the overall growth rate of a population. Given that a population's growth rate is a synthesis of the interplay of all demographic rates operating in a population, we test the hypothesis that the strength of ensemble density feedback must augment with increasing strength of component density feedback, using long-term censuses of population size, fertility, and survival rates of 109 bird and mammal populations (97 species). We found that compensatory and depensatory component feedbacks were common (each detected in approximately 50% of the demographic rates). However, component feedback strength only explained <10% of the variation in ensemble feedback strength. To explain why, we illustrate the different sources of decoupling between component and ensemble feedbacks. We argue that the management of anthropogenic impacts on populations using component feedbacks alone is ill-advised, just as managing on the basis of ensemble feedbacks without a mechanistic understanding of the contributions made by its components and environmental variability can lead to suboptimal decisions.     

Albatross species demonstrate regional differences in North Pacific marine contamination.

Recent concern about negative effects on human health from elevated organochlorine and mercury concentrations in marine foods has highlighted the need to understand temporal and spatial patterns of marine pollution. Seabirds, long-lived pelagic predators with wide foraging ranges, can be used as indicators of regional contaminant patterns across large temporal and spatial scales. Here we evaluate contaminant levels, carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios, and satellite telemetry data from two sympatrically breeding North Pacific albatross species to demonstrate that (1) organochlorine and mercury contaminant levels are significantly higher in the California Current compared to levels in the high-latitude North Pacific and (2) levels of organochlorine contaminants in the North Pacific are increasing over time. Black-footed Albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes) had 370-460% higher organochlorine (polychlorinated biphenyls [PCBs], dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes [DDTs]) and mercury body burdens than a closely related species, the Laysan Albatross (P. immutabilis), primarily due to regional segregation of their North Pacific foraging areas. PCBs (the sum of the individual PCB congeners analyzed) and DDE concentrations in both albatross species were 130-360% higher than concentrations measured a decade ago. Our results demonstrate dramatically high and increasing contaminant concentrations in the eastern North Pacific Ocean, a finding relevant to other marine predators, including humans.     

Fitting probability models to population dynamics data

Methods for modeling population dynamics in probability using the generalized point process approach are developed. The life history of these populations is such that seasonal reproduction occurs during a short time. Several models are developed and analyzed. Data about two species: colonial spiders (Stegodyphus dumicola) and a migratory bird (wood thrush, Hylocichla mustelina) are used to estimate model parameters with appropriate log maximum likelihood functions. For the spiders, the model is fitted to provide evolutionary feasible colony size based on maximum likelihood estimates of fecundity and survival data. For the migratory bird species, a maximum likelihood estimates are derived for the fecundity and survival rates of young and adult birds and immigration rate. The presented approach allows computation of quantities of interest such as probability of extinction and average time to extinction.     

Spatial scaling of avian population dynamics: population abundance, growth rate, and variability

Synchrony in population fluctuations has been identified as an important component of population dynamics. In a previous study, we determined that local-scale (<15-km) spatial synchrony of bird populations in New England was correlated with synchronous fluctuations in lepidopteran larvae abundance and with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we address five questions that extend the scope of our earlier study using North American Breeding Bird Survey data. First, do bird populations in eastern North America exhibit spatial synchrony in abundances at scales beyond those we have documented previously? Second, does spatial synchrony depend on what population metric is analyzed (e.g., abundance, growth rate, or variability)? Third, is there geographic concordance in where species exhibit synchrony? Fourth, for those species that exhibit significant geographic concordance, are there landscape and habitat variables that contribute to the observed patterns? Fifth, is spatial synchrony affected by a species' life history traits? Significant spatial synchrony was common and its magnitude was dependent on the population metric analyzed. Twenty-four of 29 species examined exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance: mean local autocorrelation (rho)= 0.15; mean spatial extent (mean distance where rho=0) = 420.7 km. Five of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in annual population growth rate (mean local autocorrelation = 0.06, mean distance = 457.8 km). Ten of the 29 species exhibited significant synchrony in population abundance variability (mean local autocorrelation = 0.49, mean distance = 413.8 km). Analyses of landscape structure indicated that habitat variables were infrequent contributors to spatial synchrony. Likewise, we detected no effects of life history traits on synchrony in population abundance or growth rate. However, short-distance migrants exhibited more spatially extensive synchrony in population variability than either year-round residents or long-distance migrants. The dissimilarity of the spatial extent of synchrony across species suggests that most populations are not regulated at similar spatial scales. The spatial scale of the population synchrony patterns we describe is likely larger than the actual scale of population regulation, and in turn, the scale of population regulation is undoubtedly larger than the scale of individual ecological requirements.     

Hierarchical demographic approaches for assessing invasion dynamics of non-indigenous species: An example using northern snakehead (Channa argus)

Models of species’ demographic features are commonly used to understand population dynamics and inform management tactics. Hierarchical demographic models are ideal for the assessment of non-indigenous species because our knowledge of non-indigenous populations is usually limited, data on demographic traits often come from a species’ native range, these traits vary among populations, and traits are likely to vary considerably over time as species adapt to new environments. Hierarchical models readily incorporate this spatiotemporal variation in species’ demographic traits by representing demographic parameters as multi-level hierarchies. As is done for traditional non-hierarchical matrix models, sensitivity and elasticity analyses are used to evaluate the contributions of different life stages and parameters to estimates of population growth rate. We applied a hierarchical model to northern snakehead (Channa argus), a fish currently invading the eastern United States. We used a Monte Carlo approach to simulate uncertainties in the sensitivity and elasticity analyses and to project future population persistence under selected management tactics. We gathered key biological information on northern snakehead natural mortality, maturity and recruitment in its native Asian environment. We compared the model performance with and without hierarchy of parameters. Our results suggest that ignoring the hierarchy of parameters in demographic models may result in poor estimates of population size and growth and may lead to erroneous management advice. In our case, the hierarchy used multi-level distributions to simulate the heterogeneity of demographic parameters across different locations or situations. The probability that the northern snakehead population will increase and harm the native fauna is considerable. Our elasticity and prognostic analyses showed that intensive control efforts immediately prior to spawning and/or juvenile-dispersal periods would be more effective (and probably require less effort) than year-round control efforts. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering the hierarchy of parameters in estimating population growth rate and evaluating different management strategies for non-indigenous invasive species.