Four Decades of Plant Community Change in the Alpine Tundra of Southwest Yukon,Canada

Repeat measurements from long-term plots provide precise data for studying plant community change. In 2010, we visited a remote location in Yukon, Canada, where a detailed survey of alpine tundra communities was conducted in 1968. Plant community composition was resurveyed on the same four slopes using the same methods as the original study. Species richness and diversity increased significantly over the 42 years and non-metric multidimensional scaling indicated that community composition had also changed significantly. However, the direction and magnitude of change varied with aspect. Dominant species were not replaced or eliminated but, instead, declined in relative importance. Fine-scale changes in vegetation were evident from repeat photography and dendro-ecological analysis of erect shrubs, supporting the community-level analysis. The period of study corresponds to a mean annual temperature increase of 2°C, suggesting that climate warming has influenced these changes.     

A Richer,Greener and Smaller Alpine World: Review and Projection of Warming-Induced Plant Cover Change in the Swedish Scandes

Alpine plant life is proliferating, biodiversity is on the rise and the mountain world appears more productive and inviting than ever. Upper range margin rise of trees and low-altitude (boreal) plant species, expansion of alpine grasslands and dwarf-shrub heaths are the modal biotic adjustments during the past few decades, after a century of substantial climate warming in the Swedish Scandes. This course of biotic landscape evolution has reached historical dimensions and broken a multi-millennial trend of plant cover retrogression, alpine tundra expansion, floristic and faunal impoverishment, all imposed by progressive and deterministic neoglacial climate cooling. Continued modest warming over the present century will likely be beneficial to alpine biodiversity, geoecological stability, resilience, sustainable reindeer husbandry and aesthetic landscape qualities. These aspects are highlighted by an integrative review of results from long-term monitoring of subalpine/alpine vegetation in the Swedish Scandes. This forms the basis for some tentative projections of landscape transformations in a potentially warmer future. Notably, these results and projections are not necessarily valid in other regions and differ in some respects from model predictions. Continued monitoring is mandatory as a basis for generation of more realistic vegetation and ecosystem models.     

Using Available Information to Assess the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in the High Arctic: North Billjefjorden, Central Spitsbergen (Svalbard)

We review the available data that can be used to assess the potential impact of climate change on vegetation, and we use central Spitsbergen, Svalbard, as a model location for the High Arctic. We used two sources of information: recent and short-term historical records, which enable assessment on scales of particular plant communities and the landscape over a period of decades, and palynological and macrofossil analyses, which enable assessment on time scales of hundreds and thousands of years and on the spatial scale of the landscape. Both of these substitutes for standardized monitoring revealed stability of vegetation, which is probably attributable to the harsh conditions and the distance of the area from sources of diaspores of potential new incomers. The only evident recent vegetation changes related to climate change are associated with succession after glacial retreats. By establishing a network of permanent plots, researchers will be able to monitor immigration of new species from diversity 'hot spots' and from an abandoned settlement nearby. This will greatly enhance our ability to understand the effects of climate change on vegetation in the High Arctic.     

A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate

A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate.     

Changes in Tree Growth,Biomass and Vegetation Over a 13-Year Period in the Swedish Sub-Arctic

This study was conducted in the Swedish sub-Arctic, near Abisko, in order to assess the direction and scale of possible vegetation changes in the alpine–birch forest ecotone. We have re-surveyed shrub, tree and vegetation data at 549 plots grouped into 61 clusters. The plots were originally surveyed in 1997 and re-surveyed in 2010. Our study is unique for the area as we have quantitatively estimated a 19% increase in tree biomass mainly within the existing birch forest. We also found significant increases in the cover of two vegetation types—“birch forest-heath with mosses” and “meadow with low herbs”, while the cover of snowbed vegetation decreased significantly. The vegetation changes might be caused by climate, herbivory and past human impact but irrespective of the causes, the observed transition of the vegetation will have substantial effects on the mountain ecosystems.     

Changes in the grassland-forest boundary at Ta-Ta-Chia long term ecological research (LTER) site detected by stable isotope ratios of soil organic matter

The carbon isotope analysis [delta13C values] of organic samples can be a useful research in ecological studies because delta13C values are indicative of the plant source. This study investigated the changes in plant communities along the grassland-forest boundary in the alpine forest at Ta-Ta-Chia long term ecological research (LTER) site in central Taiwan using carbon isotope data. The aim of this study was focused on the forest fire affected the change of vegetation community. Four pedons from grassland dominated by Miscanthus transmorrisonensis (pedons 1 and 2), transition zone by Tsuga and Yushania nittakeyamensis (pedon 3), and forest zone by Tsuga and nittakeyamensis (pedon 4) were examined. Soil organic matter (SOM) delta13C values in the upper soil horizon were similar to delta13C values of the overlaying vegetation types. This indicates that the boundary between these plant communities remained the same in the past decades. The delta13C values of the grassland SOM ranged from -19.4 per thousand to -24.1 per thousand, showing decrease with soil depth. This suggests that C4 plants (transmorrisonensis) have replaced C3 plants of Tsuga and nittakeyamensis. The delta13C values of the Tsuga forest area (pedon 4) range from -27.0 per thousand to -23.5 per thousand and showed only slight change with soil depth, implying that C3 plants have remained the major species in the forest.     

Vegetation fire emissions and their impact on air pollution and climate

Gaseous and particulate emissions from vegetation fires substantially modify the atmospheric chemical composition, degrade air quality and can alter weather and climate. The impact of vegetation fire emissions on air pollution and climate has been recognised in the late 1970s. The application of satellite data for fire-related studies in the beginning of the 21th century represented a major break through in our understanding of the global importance of fires. Today the location and extent of vegetation fires, burned area and emissions released from fires are determined from satellite products even though many uncertainties persist. Numerous dedicated experimental and modeling studies contributed to improve the current knowledge of the atmospheric impact of vegetation fires. The motivation of this paper is to give an overview of vegetation fire emissions, their environmental and climate impact, and what improvements can be expected in the near future.     

Multi-decadal Changes in Tundra Environments and Ecosystems: The International Polar Year-Back to the Future Project (IPY-BTF)

Polar and alpine environments are changing rapidly due to increases in temperature, which are amplified in the Arctic, as well as changes in many local factors. The impacts on ecosystems and their function have potential consequences for local residents and the global community. Tundra areas are vast and diverse, and the knowledge of geographical variation in environmental and ecosystem change is limited to relatively few locations, or to remote sensing approaches that are limited mostly to the past few decades. The International Polar Year, IPY, provided a context, stimulus and timely opportunities for re-visiting old research sites and data sets to collate data on past changes, to pass knowledge from old to new generations of researchers and to document environmental characteristics of sites to facilitate detection and attribution of future changes. Consequently, the project “Retrospective and Prospective Vegetation Change in the Polar Regions: Back to the Future,” BTF, was proposed and endorsed as an IPY activity (project #512). With national funding support, teams of researchers re-visited former sites and data sets throughout the Arctic and some alpine regions. These efforts have amounted to a gamut of “BTF” studies that are collectively geographically expansive and disciplinary diverse. A selection of these studies are introduced and presented in the current issue together with a brief synthesis of their findings.     

Predictive modeling of effects under global change

The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs. Models discussed relate to vegetation (e.g. crop), soil, bio-geochemistry, water, and wildlife responses to conventional, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation. Also described are models of these responses, alone and interactively, to increased CO(2), other air pollutants and UV-B radiation, as the state of the science allows. Further, models of land-use change are included. Additionally, global multiple sector models of environment, natural resources, human population dynamics, economics, energy, and political relations are reviewed for integrated impact assessment. To the extent available, information on computer software and hardware requirements is presented for the various models. The paper concludes with comments about using these technologies as they relate to ecological risk assessment for policy decision analysis. Such an effort is hampered by considerable uncertainties with the output of existing models, because of the uncertainties associated with input data and the definitions of their dose-response relationships. The concluding suggestions point the direction for new developments in modeling and analyses that are needed for the 21st century.     

A reflection on four impactful Ambio papers: The biotic perspective: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Climate change impacts

Climate change represents one of the most pressing societal and scientific challenges of our time. While much of the current research on climate change focuses on future prediction, some of the strongest signals of warming can already be seen in Arctic and alpine areas, where temperatures are rising faster than the global average, and in the oceans, where the combination of rising temperatures and acidification due to increased CO₂ concentrations has had catastrophic consequences for sensitive marine organisms inhabiting coral reefs. The scientific papers highlighted as part of this anniversary issue represent some of the most impactful advances in our understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we reflect on the legacy of these papers from the biotic perspective.     

Phytostabilization of semiarid soils residually contaminated with trace elements using by-products: sustainability and risks

We investigated the efficiency of various by-products (sugarbeet lime, biosolid compost and leonardite), based on single or repeated applications to field plots, on the establishment of a vegetation cover compatible with a stabilization strategy on a multi-element (As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn) contaminated soil 4-6 years after initial amendment applications. Results indicate that the need for re-treatment is amendment- and element-dependent; in some cases, a single application may reduce trace element concentrations in above-ground biomass and enhance the establishment of a healthy vegetation cover. Amendment performance as evaluated by % cover, biomass and number of colonizing taxa differs; however, changes in plant community composition are not necessarily amendment-specific. Although the translocation of trace elements to the plant biotic compartment is greater in re-vegetated areas, overall loss of trace elements due to soil erosion and plant uptake is usually smaller compared to that in bare soil.     

Monitoring change in mountainous dry-heath vegetation at a regional scale using multitemporal Landsat TM data

Vegetation cover-change analysis requires selection of an appropriate set of variables for measuring and characterizing change. Satellite sensors like Landsat TM offer the advantages of wide spatial coverage while providing land-cover information. This facilitates the monitoring of surface processes. This study discusses change detection in mountainous dry-heath communities in J?mtland County, Sweden, using satellite data. Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+ data from 1984, 1994 and 2000, respectively, were used. Different change detection methods were compared after the images had been radiometrically normalized, georeferenced and corrected for topographic effects. For detection of the classes change--no change the NDVI image differencing method was the most accurate with an overall accuracy of 94% (K = 0.87). Additional change information was extracted from an alternative method called NDVI regression analysis and vegetation change in 3 categories within mountainous dry-heath communities were detected. By applying a fuzzy set thresholding technique the overall accuracy was improved from of 65% (K = 0.45) to 74% (K = 0.59). The methods used generate a change product showing the location of changed areas in sensitive mountainous heath communities, and it also indicates the extent of the change (high, moderate and unchanged vegetation cover decrease). A total of 17% of the dry and extremely dry-heath vegetation within the study area has changed between 1984 and 2000. On average 4% of the studied heath communities have been classified as high change, i.e. have experienced "high vegetation cover decrease" during the period. The results show that the low alpine zone of the southern part of the study area shows the highest amount of "high vegetation cover decrease". The results also show that the main change occurred between 1994 and 2000.     

Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring

Changes in Arctic vegetation can have important implications for trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning leading to climate feedbacks. Plot-based vegetation surveys provide detailed insight into vegetation changes at sites around the Arctic and improve our ability to predict the impacts of environmental change on tundra ecosystems. Here, we review studies of changes in plant community composition and phenology from both long-term monitoring and warming experiments in Arctic environments. We find that Arctic plant communities and species are generally sensitive to warming, but trends over a period of time are heterogeneous and complex and do not always mirror expectations based on responses to experimental manipulations. Our findings highlight the need for more geographically widespread, integrated, and comprehensive monitoring efforts that can better resolve the interacting effects of warming and other local and regional ecological factors.     

Flora and Vegetation of Tasiilaq,Formerly Angmagssalik,Southeast Greenland: A Comparison of Data Between Around 1900 and 2007

The changes in the vascular plant flora of Tasiilaq, low arctic Southeast Greenland, between around 1900 and 2007 were studied by comparing the data from historical literature with those of the field observations performed between the late 1960s and 2007. Since 1900, the percentage of widely distributed arctic species distinctly decreased, whereas that of the low arctic species somewhat increased, and boreal species hardly increased. Vegetation monitoring revealed minor changes and showed that several thermophilous and xerophilous species increased between 1968/1969 and 2007, whereas some hygrophilous species decreased. Repeated vegetation mapping of a shallow pond revealed conspicuous changes suggesting increased evaporation/precipitation ratios associated with environmental warming up and decreasing snow accumulation in winter, in line with results of previous investigations. In spite of climate warming, expansion of the town and increasing human impact, flora and vegetation on the whole appeared rather stable during the last 40 years without invading species or introductions.     

Soil organic carbon storage in a mountain permafrost area of Central Asia (High Altai,Russia)

The thawing and subsequent decomposition of large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) currently stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost region are projected to result in a ‘positive’ feedback on global warming. The magnitude of this feedback can only be assessed with improved knowledge about the total size and geographic distribution of the permafrost SOC pool. This study investigates SOC storage in an under-sampled mountain permafrost area in the Russian High Altai. SOC stocks from 39 soil pits are upscaled using a GIS-based land cover classification. We found that the top 100 cm of soils in Aktru Valley and the adjacent Kuray Basin only holds on average 2.6 ± 0.6 kg C m⁻² (95% confidence interval), of which only c. 1% is stored in permafrost. Global warming will result in an upward shift of alpine life zones, with new plant cover and soil development at higher elevations. As a result, this type of mountain permafrost area might act as a net C sink in the future, representing a ‘negative’ feedback on global warming.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01433-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Even low to medium nitrogen deposition impacts vegetation of dry, coastal dunes around the Baltic Sea

Coastal dunes around the Baltic Sea have received small amounts of atmospheric nitrogen and are rather pristine ecosystems in this respect. In 19 investigated dune sites the atmospheric wet nitrogen deposition is 3-8 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. The nitrogen content of Cladonia portentosa appeared to be a suitable biomonitor of these low to medium deposition levels. Comparison with EMEP-deposition data showed that Cladonia reflects the deposition history of the last 3-6 years. With increasing nitrogen load, we observed a shift from lichen-rich short grass vegetation towards species-poor vegetation dominated by the tall graminoid Carex arenaria. Plant species richness per field site, however, does not decrease directly with these low to medium N deposition loads, but with change in vegetation composition. Critical loads for acidic, dry coastal dunes might be lower than previously thought, in the range of 4-6 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ wet deposition.     

Interactive effects of nitrogen deposition and fire on plant and soil chemistry in an alpine heathland

The response of alpine heathland vegetation and soil chemistry to N additions of 0, 10, 20 and 50 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in combination with simulated accidental fire (+/−) was monitored over a 5-year period. N addition caused rapid and significant increases in plant tissue N content and N:P and N:K of Calluna vulgaris, suggesting increasing phosphorus and potassium limitation of growth. Soil C:N declined significantly with N addition, indicating N saturation and increasing likelihood of N leakage. Fire further decreased soil C:N and reduced potential for sequestration of additional N. This study shows that alpine heathlands, which occupy the headwaters of many rivers, have limited potential to retain deposited N and may rapidly become N saturated, leaking N into downstream communities and surface waters.     

Assessment of the Netherlands’ Flood Risk Management Policy Under Global Change

Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands’ current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of ‘policy tipping points’. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.     

Responses to ammonium and nitrate additions by boreal plants and their natural enemies

Separate effects of ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) on boreal forest understorey vegetation were investigated in an experiment where 12.5 and 50.0 kg nitrogen (N) ha(-1) year(-1) was added to 2 m2 sized plots during 4 years. The dwarf-shrubs dominating the plant community, Vaccinium myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea, took up little of the added N independent of the chemical form, and their growth did not respond to the N treatments. The grass Deschampsia flexuosa increased from the N additions and most so in response to NO3-. Bryophytes took up predominately NH4+ and there was a negative correlation between moss N concentration and abundance. Plant pathogenic fungi increased from the N additions, but showed no differences in response to the two N forms. Because the relative contribution of NH4+ and NO3- to the total N deposition on a regional scale can vary substantially, the N load a habitat can sustain without substantial changes in the biota should be set considering specific vegetation responses to the predominant N form in deposition.     

Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.