Adapting to climate variability: Pumpkins, people and policy

Understanding of how best to support those most vulnerable to climate stress is imperative given expected changes in climate variability. This paper investigates local adaptation strategies to climate variability, focusing on agricultural decision‐making in a communal irrigation scheme in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Research done through interviews, surveys and participatory methods demonstrates that adaptation strategies within a community are socially differentiated and present differing objectives and priorities. These results highlight the need for intervention and policy that support a heterogeneous response to a wide range of stresses. Evidence for climate change is clear and the need for adaptation is urgent. However, adaptation measures have to be sensitively integrated with ongoing development pathways to ensure they are sustainable and relevant to local priorities.     

From climate change impacts to adaptation: A development perspective for India

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio‐economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less‐GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change.     

Objectives of public economic policy and the adaptation to climate change

Much can be learned about adaptation by applying structures and methodologies already used in other research fields. This study employs a public economic policy approach to investigate how – or if at all – adaptation should be supported by the public sector. Three different fields of adaptation activity are identified which are especially relevant for government intervention and the study proposes ways in which government intervention could be conducted. The analysis takes into account that developing regions are particularly vulnerable and they have insufficient funds to adequately adapt to climate change.     

Migrant land rights reception and 'clearing to claim' in sub-Saharan Africa: A deforestation example from southern Zambia

The relationship between migration and deforestation in the developing world continues to receive significant attention. However beyond direct population increase, the precise mechanisms that operate within the intersection of migrant/host land rights remain largely unexamined. Where migrants are provided with land and rights by the State and/or local communities, how such rights are perceived by the migrants is of primary importance in their interaction with land resources, and in aggregate it impacts the development opportunities and environmental repercussions of migration. The authors analyze the operative aspects of land rights reception (as opposed to provision) by migrant populations, and the relationship between this reception and deforestation. The article examines a case in Zambia to analyze how tenurial constructs, emerging from the way rights are perceived by migrants, lead to the continued clearing of areas much larger than needed for cultivation, even when the arrangement appears counter‐productive in terms of land rights provision and labour allocation. While valuable policy efforts have focused on providing resource rights to migrants, how such rights are received and the relationship of this reception to resource management needs greater policy attention.     

International retirement migration in the Alicante region,Spain: process,spatial pattern and environmental impacts

International retirement migration has become an increasing phenomenon in the Mediterranean region of Alicante, Spain. Through an interdisciplinary approach, relationships between the migration process, landscape change and environmental impacts are examined. Lifestyle-related perceptions and demands of UK retirees are studied as a major driving force of urbanisation. The extent and quality of the process is assessed by statistical and land use data analysis. Results reveal a distinctive spatial pattern of in-migration and the emergence of an archetypical landscape, consisting of a mosaic of remaining natural and urbanised landscape along the Mediterranean coast. The paper discusses the necessity of retirees' integration into sustainable planning and decision making.     

Cumulative environmental change: Conceptual frameworks,evaluation approaches,and institutional perspectives

Cumulative environmental change or cumulative effects may result from the additive effect of individual actions of the same nature or the interactive effect of multiple actions of a different nature. This article reviews conceptual frameworks of cumulative environmental change and describes analytical and institutional approaches to cumulative effects assessment (CEA). A causal model is a common theoretical construct, although the frameworks vary in their emphasis on different components of the model. Two broad approaches to CEA are distinguished: one scientific and the other planning oriented. These approaches should not be interpreted as competing paradigms but rather different interpretations of the scope of CEA. Each approach can provide a distinct but complementary contribution to the analysis, assessment, and management of cumulative effects. A comparison of the institutional and legislative response to CEA in Canada and the United States shows that Canada is following the American example of incorporating the analysis and assessment of cumulative effects into regulatory actions and administrative procedures that also govern environmental impact assessment.     

Local economic situation,local environmental mobilization and local government environmental policy in Hungary

Studies of advanced capitalist societies have shown that relatively wealthy localities with organized environmental groups are able to avoid unattractive facilities. The aim of this article is to ask whether the same logic applies in Hungary, a middle-income ‘transition’ society. The focus is not on the formal legal powers of local governments but on some of the influences on local government environmental policy. Drawing on a survey of mayors, notaries and environmental officials in 600 local government units in Hungary (from Budapest to villages), it explores the relation between environmental group mobilization, environmental group influence and environmental policy. It is shown that there are systematic differences in environmental group mobilization between settlements of different types, and that these differences, together with differences in local economic situation, explain the differing levels of perceived influence of environmental groups on policy. The localities where perceived environmental group influence is greatest are identified and shown to be places where there are higher education institutions and a tradition of ‘civic culture’, or where the local government is using the environment as an asset as part of an economic development strategy. It is concluded that similar processes to those found in advanced capitalist societies exist in Hungary. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Planning for global environmental change in Bangkok's informal settlements

Government agencies in cities across Asia recognise that municipalities must take steps to adapt to projected climate changes if people and places are to be kept above water. This paper focuses on planning for climate change in Bangkok because it ranks among the top 10 port cities vulnerable to climate change related flooding. It is also understood that the most devastating impacts of climate change will be suffered by the city's most vulnerable residents: the poor. Not only do impoverished people occupy physically vulnerable space, such as riverbanks, but they are also the least equipped to recover from the disruption of their livelihoods.

Several scholars have identified “institutional traps” that prevent the Thai government from successfully aiding poor and marginalised flood victims in the past. These include poor coordination, lack of monitoring and evaluation, rigidity, crisis management and elite capture. Lebel, Manuta, and Garden (2011, 56) Lebel, L., J.B. Manuta, and P. Garden. 2011. “Institutional Traps and Vulnerability to Changes in Climate and Flood Regimes in Thailand.” Regional Environmental Change 11 (1): 45–58.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] pose the crucial question: “How have individuals – from local community leaders through to national level politicians and bureaucrats – successfully influenced policy and programmes to avoid institutional traps and improve adaptive capacities to climate change?”

In this paper, we begin to address this question through examining emergent methods of “community based adaptation” and reviewing case studies of adaptation action from other vulnerable communities in the Global South. These lessons – such as overcoming institutional rigidity and avoiding elite capture – are important for Bangkok and other cities in the Global South that face many different challenges by global environmental change.     

Willing and able: explaining individuals' engagement in environmental policy making

Research on attitudes toward environmental policy making has often overlooked the important role that risks play in forming individual attitudes towards the environment. Similarly, this research often assumes that the factors that affect attitudes are similar across different environmental domains. The purpose of this research is to examine how the factors that affect an individual's willingness to get involved in environmental policy making differ on two environmental issues – nuclear power and drinking water. The study utilises multivariate statistical techniques to explore the relationship that uncertainty, risk, and trust play in an individual's willingness to take action in environmental policy making. The data consist of responses to a national random telephone survey of 403 adults in the United States. The individuals surveyed are more likely to take action on the less avoidable potential threat of nuclear power than they are on drinking water. The respondents believe that the potential harm from nuclear power is greater than that from drinking water. The individuals most likely to take action are those who indicate that they are interested in environmental issues.     

Proportionate and disproportionate policy responses to climate change: core concepts and empirical applications

A fresh perspective on policy-making and planning has emerged which views disproportionate policy as an intentional policy response. A disproportionate policy response is understood to be a lack of ‘fit’ or balance between the costs of a public policy and the benefits that are derived from this policy, and between policy ends and means. This paper applies this new perspective on the proportionality of policy-making to the area of climate change. The first part of the paper discusses the underlying causes of disproportionate policy responses in broad terms and then applies the theoretical reasoning to understand the conditions in which they are likely to appear in relation to climate change. These conditions are hypothesized to relate to four main factors: economic considerations; levels of public demand; focusing events; and strategic considerations. It concludes with the suggestion that societal actors may be able to manipulate these four factors to encourage politicians to adopt policies that mitigate climate change more rapidly than is currently the case in most countries.     

Addressing climate change: Determinants of consumers' willingness to act and to support policy measures

Consumers influence climate change through their consumption patterns and their support or dismissal of climate mitigation policy measures. Both climate-friendly actions and policy support comprise a broad range of options, which vary in manifold ways and, therefore, might be influenced by different factors. The aims of the study were, therefore, two-fold: first, we intended to find a meaningful way to classify different ways of addressing climate change. Second, we aimed to examine which determinants influence people's willingness to engage in these behaviors. We conducted a large-scale mail survey in Switzerland in which respondents rated, among other items, their willingness to act or support a range of possible actions and mitigations measures. A principal component analysis indicated that a distinction in terms of a behavior's directness as well as a differentiation according to perceived costs seem to be appropriate to classify climate-friendly actions. Multiple regression analyses showed that perceived costs and perceived climate benefit turned out to be the strongest predictors for willingness to act or to support climate policy measures. The strong influence of perceived climate benefit might reflect a strategy of reducing cognitive dissonance. As high-cost behaviors are more difficult to adopt, consumers may reduce dissonance by dismissing high-cost behaviors as not effective in terms of climate mitigation. Political affiliation proved to be another strong determinant of willingness to act or support. Participants on the right wing were less willing to show indirect climate-friendly behaviors, change their mobility behaviors, and to support any type of climate mitigation policy measures. Climate-friendly low-cost behaviors, however, were not influenced by political affiliation.     

Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya: An economic analysis

This paper examines the impact of climate change on the decision of farmers to engage or not to engage in livestock activities and also on the choice of different livestock species in Kenya. To this end, cross‐sectional household level data supplemented by long‐term averages of climate data are used. The probit model is employed to derive the response of the probability of engaging in livestock activities to climate change. Probit and multivariate probit methods are employed to model the choice of different livestock species. Atmosphere–ocean global circulation models are used to project the impact of different climate scenarios on the probability of engaging in livestock activities and also of adopting different livestock species according to variations in climate. The results suggest that farmers adapt livestock management decisions to climate change. At low levels of temperature increase, the probability of engaging in livestock activities falls, but at higher levels of climate change, the probability rises. The results further show that as it gets hotter, farmers change their livestock choices from dairy cattle and sheep to beef cattle and goats.     

Climate- and human-induced woody vegetation changes in Botswana and their implications for human adaptation

For purposes of suggesting adaptive and policy options regarding the sustained use of forestry resources in Botswana, an analysis of the whole countrywide satellite data (showing the mean present distribution of vegetation in terms of species abundance and over all density) and the projection of vegetation cover changes using a simulation approach under different climatic scenarios were undertaken. The analysis revealed that changes in vegetation cover types due to human and natural causes have taken place since the first vegetation map was produced in 1971. In the southwest, the changes appear to be more towards an increasing prevalence of thorn trees; in the eastern part of the country where widespread bush encroachment is taking place, the higher population density suggests more human induced (agrarian-degradation) effects, while in the sparsely settled central Kalahari region, changes from tree savanna to shrubs may be indicative of the possible influence of climate with the associated effects of fires and local adaptations. Projection of future vegetation changes to about 2050 indicates degeneration of the major vegetation types due to the expected drying. Based on the projected changes in vegetation, current adaptive and policy arrangements are not adequate and as such a shift from the traditional adaptive approaches to community-based types is suggested. Defining forestry management units and adopting different management plans for the main vegetation stands that are found in Botswana are the major policy options.     

Global environmental change: the contribution of social science research to policy in the UK

Research into global environmental change in the United Kingdom, has sought to influence public policy. It has also served to refashion the social sciences themselves, forcing them to consider sustainability as a dimension of all social and economic behaviour. This paper describes the way in which the principle of enhanced sustainability might become a point of reference in social science research. It discusses, some of the lessons that have been learned from the Global Environmental Change Programme and then considers the relationship between this work and research on the environment undertaken within the natural sciences.This paper was presented as a keynote delivery at the Global Forum '94 Conference Towards a sustainable Future: Promoting Sustainable Development, Manchester, UK.     

Shifting paths to conservation: policy change discourses and the 2008 US farm bill

From 2004 until 2006, reform of US agricultural subsidy programmes seemed a likely result of pressure from the World Trade Organization. Many groups saw this pressure as an opportunity to ‘green’ farm policy by crafting environmental service payments that could replace crop subsidies. Yet the 2008 US farm bill fell short of such drastic changes. This paper uses discourse analysis to trace the decline of prospects for reform of the farm bill, and a shift to incremental policy making between 2006 and 2008. It finds that, in addition to political and situational factors, striking discursive shifts altered policy debates and outcomes to create particular conservation impacts. It thus argues for broader use of rhetoric theory and discourse analysis to assess environmental policy. Implications for land conservation are presented in the context of interest group tactics.     

Land pressure and customary tenure: Cropland allocations in Swaziland

This paper examines the effects of growing land pressure on the distribution and quality of cropland allocations on customary tenured land (CTL) in Swaziland. Within the wider Sub‐Saharan context, the reform of indigenous tenure systems is now generally seen as a process of adaptation rather than replacement. The legal recognition of (existing and future) user rights is considered a practical way forward. This essentially rights‐based approach may divert attention from technical inadequacies indigenous systems may have, particularly under conditions of increasing land pressure. The case of CTL substantiates such shortcomings. CTL has seen a marked growth in population and land allocations since Independence. This had led to concerns on the land distribution efficiency in view of the improved agricultural production required to sustain the increasing number of rural households. By analysing historical changes in the number, size and quality of cropland allocations in selected rural communities, this paper demonstrates the occurrence of a high degree of inconsistency in cropland distribution at the community level, as well as inefficient land distribution at higher levels of scale. These shortcomings threaten the sustainability of the local agricultural production systems, and will need to be addressed in any meaningful reform process.     

Development,Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.     

Ecoregions and ecodistricts: Ecological regionalizations for the Netherlands' environmental policy

For communicating data on the state of the environment to policy makers, various integrative frameworks are used, including regional integration. For this kind of integration we have developed two related ecological regionalizations, ecoregions and ecodistricts, which are two levels in a series of classifications for hierarchically nested ecosystems at different spatial scale levels. We explain the compilation of the maps from existing geographical data, demonstrating the relatively holistic, a priori integrated approach. The resulting maps are submitted to discriminant analysis to test the consistancy of the use of mapping characteristics, using data on individual abiotic ecosystem components from a national database on a 1-km² grid. This reveals that the spatial patterns of soil, groundwater, and geomorphology correspond with the ecoregion and ecodistrict maps. Differences between the original maps and maps formed by automatically reclassifying 1-km² cells with these discriminant components are found to be few. These differences are discussed against the background of the principal dilemma between deductive, a priori integrated, and inductive, a posteriori, classification.     

贵港市土地利用动态变化分析及用地预测

以城市为中心的区域土地是土地资源中资产效益最高的一部分，是人类利用土地影响最为深刻的土地类型。在分析土地利用现状变更调查数据的基础上，应用各类土地利用动态变化模型对贵港市的土地利用动态变化进行分析，并运用灰色系统预测模型对该区域各地类的土地利用时空演变进行了预测，最后提出相应的优化土地利用结构的建议。     

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis and Prediction in the Upper Reaches of the Minjiang River,China

Scientists have aimed at exploring land use and land cover change (LUCC) and modeling future landscape pattern in order to improve our understanding of the causes and consequences of these phenomena. This study addresses LUCC in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, China, from 1974 to 2000. Based on remotely sensed images, LUCC and landscape pattern change were assessed using cross-tabulation and landscape metrics. Then, using the CLUE-S model, changes in area of four types of land cover were predicted for two scenarios considering forest polices over the next 20 years. Results showed that forestland decreased from 1974 to 2000 due to continuous deforestation, while grassland and shrubland increased correspondingly. At the same time, the farmland and settlement land increased dramatically. Landscape fragmentation in the study area accompanied these changes. Forestland, grassland, and farmland take opposite trajectories in the two scenarios, as does landscape fragmentation. LUCC has led to ecological consequences, such as biodiversity loss and lowering of ecological carrying capacity.