Trees and rural households’ adaptation to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia

This study assesses the role of trees in adaptation strategies of rural households to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Change in tree cover was assessed by producing Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps using satellite remote sensing images, and household survey was conducted to generate socioeconomic data. The results show that tree cover has increased over the last 30 years, mostly in the form of eucalyptus woodlots around homesteads. Eucalyptus reportedly helps households pass through livelihood shocks and provide protection against negative effects of climate change and variability. Despite some concerns on the part of local agricultural experts that planting eucalyptus may affect future food production, farmers are converting their croplands into eucalyptus woodlots. We conclude that land use planning and proper allocation of land resource is important to improve local livelihoods while also supporting adaptation of communities to local environmental change in general and climate change in particular.     

Sustainable livelihoods and people’s vulnerability in the face of coastal hazards

The present study investigates into the link between people’s vulnerability in the face of coastal hazards and sustainable livelihoods. It focuses on the town of Borongan in the Philippines and draws on questionnaire-based surveys and focus group discussions. This research shows that local fishermen are often compelled to go out fishing despite pending typhoon or storm surge to sustain the daily needs of their family. Its also demonstrates that the capacity of these people to protect themselves from the threat is constrained by poor and fragile livelihoods. In the event of a crisis, the study argues that people resort to a range of adjustments on their daily life which is rooted in the strength and diversity of their livelihoods. To reduce people’s vulnerability and enhance capacities to face coastal hazards, the study fosters Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction with special emphasis to sustainable livelihoods.     

Convergence of stakeholders’ environmental threat perceptions following mass coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef

Managing human use of ecosystems in an era of rapid environmental change requires an understanding of diverse stakeholders’ behaviors and perceptions to enable effective prioritization of actions to mitigate multiple threats. Specifically, research examining how threat perceptions are shared or diverge among stakeholder groups and how these can evolve through time is increasingly important. We investigated environmental threat perceptions related to Australia's Great Barrier Reef and explored their associations before and after consecutive years of mass coral bleaching. We used data from surveys of commercial fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents (n = 5254) conducted in 2013 and 2017. Threats perceived as most serious differed substantially among groups before bleaching but were strongly aligned after bleaching. Climate change became the most frequently reported threat by all stakeholder groups following the coral bleaching events, and perceptions of fishing and poor water quality as threats also ranked high. Within each of the 3 stakeholder groups, fishers, tourism operators, and coastal residents, the prioritization of these 3 threats tended to diverge in 2013, but convergence occurred after bleaching. These results indicate an emergence of areas of agreement both within and across stakeholder groups. Changes in perceptions were likely influenced by high-profile environmental-disturbance events and media representations of threats. Our results provide insights into the plasticity of environmental-threat perceptions and highlight how their convergence in response to major events may create new opportunities for strategic public engagement and increasing support for management.     

Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?

Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamfiow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 > 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. This increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. Forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.     

How long can fisheries management delay action in response to ecosystem and climate change?

Sustainable management of fisheries is often compromised by management delaying implementation of regulations that reduce harvest, in order to maintain higher catches in the short-term. Decreases or increases in fish population growth rate driven by environmental change, including ecosystem and climate change, affect the harvest that can be taken sustainably. If not acted on rapidly, environmental change could result in unsustainable fishing or missed opportunity for higher catches. Using simulation models of harvested fish populations influenced by environmental change, we explore how long fisheries managers can afford to wait before changing harvest regulations in response to changes in population growth. If environmental change causes population declines, delays greater than five years increase the probability of population collapse. Species with fast and highly variable population growth rates are more susceptible to collapse under delays and should be a priority for revised management where delays occur. Generally, the long-term cost of delay, in terms of lost fishing opportunity, exceeds the short-term benefits of overfishing. Lowering harvest limits and monitoring for environmental change can alleviate the impact of delays; however, these measures may be more costly than reducing delays. We recommend that management systems that allow rapid responses to population growth changes be enacted for fisheries management to adapt to ecosystem and climate change.     

Impact of social integration and government support on ecological immigrants’ vulnerability to poverty

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - This study identifies ways to help ecological immigrants adapt—socially, economically, psychologically, and culturally—to life in the...     

Dramatic declines in mussel bed community diversity: response to climate change?

Mussel beds along the wave-exposed coast of the eastern North Pacific Ocean serve as an important habitat, harboring a high diversity of species. A comparison of California mussel bed community diversity in 2002 to historical data (1960s to 1970s) revealed large declines (mean loss 58.9%), including some declines >141 species (approximately 80% loss). Concurrent work revealed inconsistent changes in mussel populations (biomass and bed thickness) along the California coast, suggesting that diversity declines may be related to large-scale processes rather than local habitat destruction. Potential factors causing declines in mussel community diversity are discussed, with regional climate change associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate change induced alterations of ecological interactions and biological processes suggested as likely causes. Although extensive literature has predicted the potential effects of climate change on global diversity, this study is one of the few examples of declines attributed to climate change.     

Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change

We study the role of intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast two polar instances of risk-sensitive preferences: the traditional “discounted utility” model, which imposes a positive rate of pure time preference and risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, and multiplicatively separable preferences, which display risk aversion in that dimension but no pure time preferences. We show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same economy when there is no collapse risk associated with pollution. Once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate depends on the pollution stock, multiplicatively separable preferences are associated with a much higher value of catastrophic risk reduction, and a more stringent policy response. A relatively high discount rate may thus be compatible with large emissions abatement in the face of a low probability large impact event, reflecting preferences for catastrophic risk reduction.     

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on ranges of vertebrate species endemic to the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau over 40 years

Over the past 40 years, the climate has been changing and human disturbance has increased in the vast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). These 2 factors are expected to affect the distribution of a large number of endemic vertebrate species. However, quantitative relationships between range shifts and climate change and human disturbance of these species in the QTP have rarely been evaluated. We used occurrence records of 19 terrestrial vertebrate species (birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles) occurring in the QTP from 1980 to 2020 to quantify the effects of climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution of these 4 taxonomic groups and estimated species range changes in each species. The trend in distribution changes differed among the taxonomic groups, although, generally, ranges shifted to central QTP. Climate change contributed more to range variation than human disturbance (the sum of the 4 climatic variables contributed more than the sum of the 4 human disturbance variables for all 4 taxonomic groups). Suitable geographic range increased for most mammals, amphibians, and reptiles (+27.6%, +18.4%, and +27.8% on average, respectively), whereas for birds range decreased on average by 0.9%. Quantitative evidence for climate change and human disturbance associations with range changes for endemic vertebrate species in the QTP can provide useful insights into biodiversity conservation under changing environments.     

Increased sedentariness in European Blackbirds following urbanization: a consequence of local adaptation?

Urbanization changes local environmental conditions and may lead to altered selection regimes for life history traits of organisms thriving in cities. Previous studies have reported changes in breeding phenology and even trends toward increased sedentariness in migratory bird species colonizing urban areas. However, does the change in migratory propensity simply represent a phenotypic adjustment to local urban environment, or is it genetically based and hence the result of local adaptation? To test this, we hand-raised European Blackbirds (Turdus merula) from urban and forest populations, quantified their nocturnal activity and fat deposition covering two complete migratory cycles and examined the consequences of a reduced migratory propensity for the timing of gonadal development (a physiological measure of the seasonal timing of reproduction). Although nocturnal activities differed strikingly between fall and spring seasons, with low activities during the fall and high activities during the spring seasons, our data confirm, even in birds kept from early life under common-garden conditions, a change toward reduced migratoriness in urban blackbirds. The first score of a principal component analysis including amount of nocturnal activity and fat deposition, defined as migratory disposition, was lower in urban than in forest males particularly during their first year, whereas females did not differ. The results suggest that the intrinsic but male-biased difference is genetically determined, although early developmental effects cannot be excluded. Moreover, individuals with low migratory disposition developed their gonads earlier, resulting in longer reproductive seasons. Since urban conditions facilitate earlier breeding, intrinsic shifts to sedentariness thus seem to be adaptive in urban habitats. These results corroborate the idea that urbanization has evolutionary consequences for life history traits such as migratory behavior.     

Shoreline management and its implications for coastal processes in the eastern part of the Rhône delta

The coastal fringe of the eastern part of the Rhône delta is a large area where activities related to ecological and economical interests have increased since the beginning of the century, including the salt industry of theCompagnie des Salins du Midi et des Salines de l’Est, the industrial complex ofFos-sur-Mer, tourism managed by the local authorities ofPort-Saint-Louis andArles, and dune restoration of the La Gracieuse spit undertaken by thePort Autonome de Marseille. The vulnerability of the area for changes brought about by these activities is linked to the extent of several coastal changes, whereas these changes are related to the physical functioning of the coastal fringe, such as coastal processes, but also to external components such as relative sea-level rise, subsidence, reduction of sediment input, human impact, etc. For many decades, coastline ‘protection’ in the eastern part of the Rhône delta has been undertaken to withstand erosional processes that offset beaches and retreat of the littoral. The use of different engineering structures illustrates the heterogeneity and differences in age of the various management policies. At the eastern side of the Rhône, thePort Autonome de Marseille, dealing with management, has opted for soft engineering structures using fences for dune restoration on the La Gracieuse spit. At the western side of the mouth, theCompagnie des Salins du Midi et des Salines de l’Est has been using hard engineering structures to combat erosion (rocks, groins, tetrapods, etc.). A brief assessment of the management efficiency is presented, including an analysis of the data collected concerning the survey of the zones where the structures were built. Their varying efficiency shows the important role played by the sediment supply to the littoral (solid river discharge) and the coastal hydro-sedimentary processes. In the eastern part of the Rhône river the success of the dune restoration is mainly due to the important sediment supply transported in this area by eastern drift currents. At the western part of the mouth, the decrease of sediment supply linked to erosional processes in the shallow off-shore beach has made the structures more vulnerable, and therefore, the activities of the salt industry. For this last threatened zone, three management scenarios are discussed by taking into account economical, physical and ecological parameters.     

Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.     

Simulations of the flow in the Mahakam river–lake–delta system,Indonesia

Large rivers often present a river–lake–delta system, with a wide range of temporal and spatial scales of the flow due to the combined effects of human activities and various natural factors, e.g., river discharge, tides, climatic variability, droughts, floods. Numerical models that allow for simulating the flow in these river–lake–delta systems are essential to study them and predict their evolution under the impact of various forcings. This is because they provide information that cannot be easily measured with sufficient temporal and spatial detail. In this study, we combine one-dimensional sectional-averaged (1D) and two-dimensional depth-averaged (2D) models, in the framework of the finite element model SLIM, to simulate the flow in the Mahakam river–lake–delta system (Indonesia). The 1D model representing the Mahakam River and four tributaries is coupled to the 2D unstructured mesh model implemented on the Mahakam Delta, the adjacent Makassar Strait, and three lakes in the central part of the river catchment. Using observations of water elevation at five stations, the bottom friction for river and tributaries, lakes, delta, and adjacent coastal zone is calibrated. Next, the model is validated using another period of observations of water elevation, flow velocity, and water discharge at various stations. Several criteria are implemented to assess the quality of the simulations, and a good agreement between simulations and observations is achieved in both calibration and validation stages. Different aspects of the flow, i.e., the division of water at two bifurcations in the delta, the effects of the lakes on the flow in the lower part of the system, the area of tidal propagation, are also quantified and discussed.     

Impacts of climate variability and human colonization on the vegetation of the Galápagos Islands

A high-resolution (2-9 year sampling interval) fossil pollen record from the Galápagos Islands, which spans the last 2690 years, reveals considerable ecosystem stability. Vegetation changes associated with independently derived histories of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation variability provided evidence of shifts in the relative abundance of individual species rather than immigration or extinction. Droughts associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly induced rapid ecological change that was followed by a reversion to the previous state. The paleoecological data suggested nonneutral responses to climatic forcing in this ecosystem prior to the period of human influence. Human impacts on the islands are evident in the record. A marked decline in long-term codominants of the pollen record, Alternanthera and Acalypha, produced a flora without modern analogue before 1930. Intensified animal husbandry after ca. 1930 may have induced the local extinction of Acalypha and Alternanthera. Reductions in populations of grazing animals in the 1970s and 1980s did not result in the return of the native flora, but in invasions by exotic species. After ca. 1970 the trajectory of habitat change accelerated, continuously moving the ecosystem away from the observed range of variability in the previous 2690 years toward a novel ecosystem. The last 40 years of the record also suggest unprecedented transport of lowland pollen to the uplands, consistent with intensified convection and warmer wet seasons.     

Beachgoers’ perceptions of sandy beach conditions: demographic and attitudinal influences,and the implications for beach ecosystem management

Sandy beaches represent typical venues for recreation and tourism worldwide, as well as part of the lifestyle and identity of coastal communities. Their overexploitation, however, threatens their survival. Especially in urban areas, beach management requires balancing needs by different users and obligations to protect beach functions, including conservation. In light of this, research about the human dimension of beach ecosystems has been advanced as a way to assist planning and decision making in beach management. This study assessed beachgoers' perceptions of sandy beach conditions in South Africa, by means of a questionnaire survey. The effects of demographic profile, travelling habits, motivations to visit, and recreational preferences on beachgoers' perceptions of beach conditions were tested. Beachgoers shared a general concern for the wellbeing of sandy beaches, with particular reference to the state of biodiversity and conservation. They also gave great importance to the values underlying beach ecosystems. Three motivations to visit groups and four recreational preferences types were identified. Demography, travelling habits, motivations to visit, and recreational preferences all influenced perceptions of beach conditions. The results from this study were used to draw management recommendations, with particular attention towards the promotion of conservation while also maintaining the recreational quality of urban sandy beaches. The results also highlighted the relevance of considering users' views as a tool in decision-making processes in Integrated Coastal Zone Management.     

Our disappearing past: a GIS analysis of the vulnerability of coastal archaeological resources in California’s Santa Barbara Channel region

Coastal archaeological resources around the world often coincide with dense contemporary human populations and a rapidly changing physical environment. Projected sea level rise and urban expansion during the 21^st century threaten to destroy much of our global coastal archaeological heritage. In this study, we adapt an environmental vulnerability analysis to quantify the threats of modern development and sea level rise on archaeological sites in California’s Santa Barbara Channel region. Using spatial and statistical techniques, we create a Cultural Resource Vulnerability Index that combines environmental factors, current and projected urban footprints, and archaeological site positioning. We illustrate the importance of this method for targeting threatened archaeological sites for mitigation and salvage research. In the process, we highlight the significance of coastal archaeological sites for helping better understand contemporary environmental and cultural issues, underscoring the need to preserve or salvage these sites for their significant research value.     

Exploring the ‘Birch effect’ in reservoir sediments: influence of inundation history on aerobic nutrient release

The release of nutrients on wetting (‘the Birch effect’) is well documented for terrestrial soils. The effect for aquatic sediments has received much less attention. An extreme drawdown event in a large reservoir during a period of drought presented an opportunity to test whether or not reflooding dried sediments would be a source of nutrients to the overlying water column. Wetting and drying history influences the release of ammonium, but not oxides of nitrogen, organic nitrogen, filterable reactive phosphorus or total phosphorus, from dried sediments following re-wetting. Dried reservoir sediments that have never, or have only rarely, been desiccated since the 1920s produced a pulse of ammonium on re-inundation. Conversely, dried sediments from parts of the reservoir that undergo frequent wetting and drying cycles do not release substantial amounts of ammonium on rewetting.     

Does the choice of climate baseline matter in ecological niche modelling?

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have multiple applications in ecology, evolution and conservation planning. They relate the known locations of a species to characteristics of its environment (usually climate) over its geographical range. Most ENMs are trained using standard 30-year (1961-1990) or 50-year (1951-2000) baselines to represent current climate conditions. Species occurrence records used as input to the models, however, are frequently collected from time periods that differ from those from which the climate is derived. Since climate variability can be significant within and outside baselines, and the distributions of some plants and animals (e.g., annual plants, insects) can adjust to environmental conditions on much shorter time scales, this mismatch between collection records and climatic baselines may affect the utility and accuracy of model outputs. We investigated how the choice of baseline periods influenced modelling efforts, anticipating that climate baselines derived from the same temporal period as the species records would yield improved ENMs. Ten simulated species’ distributions were modelled using an ENM (Maxent) for (a) occurrences and climates within the same temporal period, based on eighteen 10-year baselines within the 20th century and (b) all available samples and climate baselines from 1951-2000 and 1961-1990. Each model was projected onto all the available 10-year climate scenarios and compared to the models trained on the corresponding scenario. We show that temporal mismatches of species occurrences and climate baselines can result in significantly poorer distribution models. Such temporal mismatch may be unavoidable for many studies, but we emphasize here the need to match the time range of samples and climate data whenever possible.     

Does local competition increase the coexistence of species in intransitive networks?

Competitive intransitivity, a situation in which species' competitive ranks cannot be listed in a strict hierarchy, promotes species coexistence through "enemy's enemy indirect facilitation." Theory suggests that intransitivity-mediated coexistence is enhanced when competitive interactions occur at local spatial scales, although this hypothesis has not been thoroughly tested. Here, we use a lattice model to investigate the effect of local vs. global competition on intransitivity-mediated coexistence across a range of species richness values and levels of intransitivity. Our simulations show that local competition can enhance intransitivity-mediated coexistence in the short-term, yet hinder it in the long-term, when compared to global competition. This occurs because local competition slows species disaggregation, allowing weaker competitors to persist longer in the shifting spatial refuges of intransitive networks, enhancing short-term coexistence. Conversely, our simulations show that, in the long-term, local competition traps disaggregated species in unfavorable areas of the competitive arena, where they are excluded by superior competitors. As a result, in the long-term, global intransitive competition allows a greater number of species to coexist than local intransitive competition.