基于VR技术的大型储罐火灾爆炸仿真软件设计

为了研究大型储罐事故后果的严重性，针对大型储罐火灾爆炸试验难以实施的情况，以虚拟现实技术为研究手段，重现大型储罐火灾和爆炸事故过程；通过对储罐火灾和爆炸事故进行理论分析，优选出大型储罐火灾爆炸事故后果数学模型；基于某商业原油储备库布置，利用3Ds Max软件对库区进行建模，结合Qt界面编写技术和OSG粒子效果技术进行交互式设计，划分火灾和爆炸2大仿真模块，设计各模块下属基本功能，形成1套基于真实场景的大型储罐火灾爆炸事故后果三维仿真模拟软件。研究结果表明:基于VR技术的大型储罐火灾爆炸仿真软件具有较强的沉浸感和交互性等特点，能够实时仿真大型储罐火灾爆炸事故动态演变过程，降低大型储罐火灾爆炸试验成本，同时为制定事故应急预案和应急处置措施提供科学参考。     

天然气管道泄漏爆炸后果评价模型对比分析

天然气管道失效可能导致多种严重后果,爆炸灾害给周围的人员和建筑物造成重大的危害,对其爆炸危害范围的评价进行研究具有重要现实意义。笔者综合分析蒸气云爆炸(VCE)定量评价模型和API pub 581后果评价模型;并以某输气管道为实例对爆炸后果进行了定量模拟评价;得到死亡区域与泄漏时间的关系,确定了其爆炸事故的伤害范围;对两种模型的评价结果进行了对比分析。爆炸后果评价模型的研究与其对比探讨,为今后输气管线的定量风险后果评价模型选取提供参考依据。     

大型LPG罐区火灾爆炸事故后果评估

针对大型LPG(液化石油气)储罐区潜在的火灾爆炸危险性，建立了喷射火、火球、UVCE爆炸和BLEVE爆炸的数学伤害模型，对其发生火灾、爆炸后人员和建筑(设备)所受到的伤害和损伤进行了定量后果评估。     

爆炸性恐怖袭击后果与人群聚集状态的关系研究

在自杀性爆炸中,当爆炸负荷较小时,所产生的人员伤亡主要由爆炸碎片造成.从几何及概率理论的角度对自杀式恐怖袭击中爆炸碎片产生的伤亡后果进行了数学建模.人群聚集状态不同,爆炸后产生的伤亡后果不同.在爆炸负荷一定的情况下,分别以场所中的人数,爆炸气流扩散角为变量对伤亡后果进行研究.结果表明,伤亡人数的变化随场所中人数的增加呈单峰式变化.当场所中总人数超过某一阙值后,期望伤亡人数会减小.伤亡人数随爆炸气流扩散角度的增大而下降.场所中人数及爆炸负荷确定的情况下,当场所面积在 m=6～50之间变化时,伤亡后果先增加,然后缓慢下降,最大伤亡在m=25左右时出现.     

瓶装液化气钢瓶泄漏事故

本文针对一起液化气泄漏引发的爆炸事故进行分析,计算泄漏总量并且通过TNT当量法得出其造成爆炸冲击波的危害后果,并结合实际爆炸后果相比较得出结论,并对类似的液化气钢瓶事故提出对策措施。     

液氯生产过程风险分析及控制

介绍了液氯生产工艺，对生产过程主要物料、中间产品、产品和工艺装置的危险性进行了分析，运用道化学火灾爆炸指数法（Dow F＆EI）对氯气生产过程火灾爆炸风险进行评价，并通过建立数学模型定量分析了液氯泄漏事故造成的危害后果，在此基础上提出风险控制措施。     

山西煤矿瓦斯泄漏风险后果预测与影响分析

通过对煤矿瓦斯泄漏主要风险后果的预测和影响分析，对进一步研究瓦斯泄漏风险后果中火灾热辐射、云团爆炸和云团扩散爆炸有更深刻的了解，为煤矿风险评价和制定应急预案提供有力的参考。     

压力容器爆炸研究及灾害后果计算分析

压力容器发生爆炸产生的危害后果非常严重,研究及预测压力容器爆炸后果至关重要。爆炸造成的灾害主要为冲击波和爆炸碎片对人的伤害和建筑物的破坏,对爆炸产生后果的计算方法作了全面系统地阐述,对研究和预测发生压力容器爆炸事故的灾害后果、应急救援有一定的意义,为安全距离的确定及应急救援预案的制定提供重要的参考。     

氢气缓冲罐雷击火灾爆炸事故后果分析

分析了雷击引起氢气缓冲罐的危险性,在对某制气基地氢气缓冲罐遭受雷击发生火灾、爆炸危险辨识的基础上,运用喷射火模型和蒸气云爆炸模型对氢气缓冲罐雷击火灾爆炸事故后果进行了模拟计算。结果表明氢气缓冲罐发生喷射火时的伤亡半径不大,发生爆炸的伤亡半径达近50m,可造成严重事故后果,应采取相应的防雷措施,尽量避免氢气缓冲罐发生雷击爆炸。     

LNG长输管线泄漏引发的火灾爆炸事故影响分析

由于腐蚀、自然灾害、人为破坏及管道本身缺陷等因素,输气管道发生泄漏事故概率较高,同时蒸汽云爆炸造成的后果最为严重.本文采用蒸汽云爆炸事故后果模拟分析法对LNG长输管道泄漏引发的火灾爆炸事故影响进行模拟分析.     

基于人工神经网络的二元液体闪点预测

建立了一个基于人工神经网络的理论模型,用于预测二元混合液体的闪点.根据所研究混合液体的物理性质,选择了相关黏度、表面张力等物理参数来表征闪点,以这些参数作为输入参数,二元混合液体的闪点作为输出值,应用反向传播(BP)人工神经网络方法对两者之间的内在定量关系进行模拟.结果表明,闪点预测值与实验值符合良好,优于传统的计算方...     

Use and misuse of motor-vehicle crash death rates in assessing highway-safety performance

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the article are to assess the extent to which comparisons of motor-vehicle crash death rates can be used to determine the effectiveness of highway-safety policies over time in a country or to compare policy effectiveness across countries. METHODS: Motor-vehicle crash death rates per mile traveled in the 50 U.S. states from 1980 to 2003 are used to show the influence on these rates of factors independent of highway-safety interventions. Multiple regression models relating state death rates to various measures related to urbanization and demographics are used. RESULTS: The analyses demonstrate strong relationships between state death rates and urbanization and demographics. Almost 60% of the variability among the state death rates can be explained by the independent variables in the multiple regression models. When the death rates for passenger vehicle occupants (i.e., excluding motorcycle, pedestrian, and other deaths) are used in the regression models, almost 70% of the variability in the rates can be explained by urbanization and demographics. CONCLUSIONS: The analyses presented in the article demonstrate that motor-vehicle crash death rates are strongly influenced by factors unrelated to highway-safety countermeasures. Overall death rates should not be used as a basis for judging the effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) of specific highway-safety countermeasures or to assess overall highway-safety policies, especially across jurisdictions. There can be no substitute for the use of carefully designed scientific evaluations of highway-safety interventions that use outcome measures directly related to the intervention; e.g., motorcyclist deaths should be used to assess the effectiveness of motorcycle helmet laws. While this may seem obvious, there are numerous examples in the literature of death rates from all crashes being used to assess the effectiveness of interventions aimed at specific subsets of crashes.     

防化服结构和缝制工艺优化设计研究

本文研究了防化服的设计原则,对我国某型防化服装进行了分析,在腰部、袖型、膝部的结构上进行改进,使服装更趋合理、人性化,更便于作业活动。针对防化服影响防护效果的缝制工艺参数,利用二次通用旋转实验设计,变化机针针号、线迹密度及缝纫线细度三个因素五个水平;针对“三防”面料进行防油、防水、防静电测试,得到防护性能与缝制工艺参数之间的回归方程,并绘出等值曲线图,进一步分析了缝制工艺对面料防油、防水、防静电性能的影响,通过Borda数找出最优缝制工艺参数,并将应用到防化服的加工制作中。     

A development in energy flow/barrier analysis

In this paper, the occupational accidents and their effects on people are modeled. The basis of energy flow/barrier analysis is used to define an accident as the impact of a hazardous agent on a target, as a result of failure of control and protective barriers. This definition is enhanced to include serial and parallel barriers and to distinguish energy barriers from target barriers. The barrier attributes are defined and used to create a quantitative scenario-building model. The probability and severity of various accidents are estimated, by studying barrier reliability and efficiency. This approach is used to develop and simulate accident scenarios and to calculate their consequences. This model can be used in complex systems for analyzing the risk and estimating the importance of barriers.     

A safety barrier-based accident model for offshore drilling blowouts

Blowout is one of the most serious accidents in the offshore oil and gas industry. Accident records show that most of the offshore blowouts have occurred in the drilling phase. Efficient measures to prevent, mitigate, and control offshore drilling blowouts are important for the entire offshore oil and gas industry. This article proposes a new barrier-based accident model for drilling blowouts. The model is based on the three-level well control theory, and primary and secondary well control barriers and an extra well monitoring barrier are established between the reservoir and the blowout event. The three barriers are illustrated in a graphical model that is similar to the well-known Swiss cheese model. Five additional barriers are established to mitigate and control the blowout accident, and event tree analysis is used to analyze the possible consequence chains. Based on statistical data and literature reviews, failures of each barrier are presented. These failures can be used as guidance for offshore drilling operators to become aware of the vulnerabilities of the safety barrier system, and to assess the risk related to these barriers. The Macondo accident is used as a case study to show how the new model can be used to understand the development of the events leading to the accident. The model can also be used as an aid to prevent future blowouts or to stop the escalation of events.     

排水管网设计中管材的选择

排水管网使用的各类排水管材种类繁多,性能差异较大.根据排水管材的材质、性能分析,对常用几种排水管材进行了技术经济比较.以实际工程为例,概述了不同施工条件和不同地质条件下排水管材的设计选择方法.     

行为形成因子分析方法评述

为全面了解人因可靠性分析(HRA)中行为形成因子(PSF),对现有的PSF分析方法进行评述。分析情景环境的各种称谓,指出PSF是目前认可程度最高的一种,并规范PSF的定义及其内涵。分2种类型评述当前PSF的分类方法:基于影响机理分类和系统化分类。评述在HRA中PSF的选择和使用情况,针对不同的问题给出选择和使用PSF的建议。分别从定性评价和定量评价2个方面对PSF的评价方法进行评述。结果表明,PSF分析方法仍处于发展之中,需要在后续工作中不断改进。     

The effect of changing the fuel of the LASTFIRE test

The LASTFIRE test is intended for the evaluation of foams used in extinguishing fires of flammable and combustible liquids in storage tanks in refinery and oil related facilities. The purpose of this study is to find, experimentally, an alternative fuel to be used in the LASTFIRE test, as a replacement for the heptane fuel, which is normally used in this test. Beside heptane, three other fuels are tested in the current study: diesel, jet A1 and kerosene. The study involved performing the LASTFIRE test, using each of the fuels and then comparing the results. The same foam is used as an extinguishing agent for all the tests and for each fuel, tests are conducted three times with separate foam discharging nozzles: semi-aspirated, aspirated and system. Using a commonly used scoring system, the results of the four fuels are evaluated. Any replaceable fuel should obtain the similar score as that is obtained by heptane. The study shows that none of the three alternatives has been judged to be suitable to replace heptane, in the LASTFIRE test.     

An adaptive neural network algorithm for assessment and improvement of job satisfaction with respect to HSE and ergonomics program: The case of a gas refinery

Researchers have been continuously trying to improve human performance with respect to Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) and ergonomics (hence HSEE). This study proposes an adaptive neural network (ANN) algorithm for measuring and improving job satisfaction among operators with respect to HSEE in a gas refinery. To achieve the objectives of this study, standard questionnaires with respect to HSEE are completed by operators. The average results for each category of HSEE are used as inputs and job satisfaction is used as output for the ANN algorithm. Moreover, ANN is used to rank operators performance with respect to HSEE and job satisfaction. Finally, Normal probability technique is used to identify outlier operators. Moreover, operators with inadequate job satisfaction with respect to HSEE are identified. This would help managers to see if operators are satisfied with their jobs in the context of HSEE. This is the first study that introduces an integrated ANN algorithm for assessment and improvement of human job satisfaction with respect to HSEE program in complex systems.     

Integrating lean principles and fuzzy bow-tie analysis for risk assessment in chemical industry

In this research, a framework combining lean manufacturing principles and fuzzy bow-tie analyses is used to assess process risks in chemical industry. Lean manufacturing tools and techniques are widely used for eliminating wastes in manufacturing environments. The five principles of lean (identify value, map the value stream, create flow, establish pull, and seek perfection) are utilized in the risk assessment process. Lean tools such as Fishbone Diagram, and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) are used for risk analysis and mitigation. Lean principles and tools are combined with bow-tie analysis for effective risk assessment process. The uncertainty inherent with the risks is handled using fuzzy logic principles. A case study from a chemical process industry is provided. Main risks and risk factors are identified and analyzed by the risk management team. Fuzzy estimates are obtained for the risk factors and bow-tie analysis is used to calculate the aggregated risk probability and impact. The risks are prioritized using risk priority matrix and mitigation strategies are selected based on FMEA. Results showed that the proposed framework can effectively improve the risk management process in the chemical industry.