Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management.     

More is not always better: coping with ambiguity in natural resources management

Coping with ambiguities in natural resources management has become unavoidable. Ambiguity is a distinct type of uncertainty that results from the simultaneous presence of multiple valid, and sometimes conflicting, ways of framing a problem. As such, it reflects discrepancies in meanings and interpretations. Under the presence of ambiguity it is not clear what problem is to be solved, who should be involved in the decision processes or what is an appropriate course of action. Despite the extensive literature about methodologies and tools to deal with uncertainty, not much has been said about how to handle ambiguities. In this paper, we discuss the notions of framing and ambiguity, and we identify five broad strategies to handle it: rational problem solving, persuasion, dialogical learning, negotiation and opposition. We compare these approaches in terms of their assumptions, mechanisms and outcomes and illustrate each approach with a number of concrete methods.     

Passive and active adaptive management: approaches and an example

Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted.     

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS.     

Fuzzy adaptive management of social and ecological carrying capacities for protected areas

Commonly used methods of evaluating the degree of consistency of protected area ecosystems with social and ecological carrying capacities are likely to result in decision errors. This occurs because such methods do not account for imprecision and uncertainty in inferring the degree of ecosystem consistency from an observed ecosystem indicator. This paper proposes a fuzzy adaptive management approach to determine whether a protected area ecosystem is consistent with ecological and social carrying capacities and, if not, to identify management actions that are most likely to achieve consistency when there is uncertainty about the current degree of consistency and how alternative management actions are likely to influence that consistency. The proposed approach is illustrated using a hypothetical example that uses an ecosystem indicator that reflects combinations of different levels of user satisfaction and conservation of threatened and endangered species. Application of the proposed fuzzy adaptive management approach requires a protected area manager to: (1) identify alternative management actions for achieving ecosystem consistency with social and ecological carrying capacities in each of several management zones in a protected area; (2) randomly assign alternative management actions to management zones; (3) define fuzzy sets for the ecosystem indicator and degree of ecosystem consistency, and fuzzy relations between the ecosystem indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency; (4) monitor the indicator in each management zone; (5) define fuzzy sets based on the observed indicator in each management zone; and (6) combine the fuzzy sets defined on the observed indicator and the fuzzy relations between the indicator and the degree of ecosystem consistency to reach conclusions about the most likely degree of consistency for alternative management actions in each management zone. The fuzzy adaptive management approach proposed here is advantageous when the benefits of avoiding the decision errors inherent with crisp and stochastic decision rules outweigh the added cost of implementing the approach.     

Adaptive management of natural resources--framework and issues

Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management.     

Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Sustainability of forest management plans: a discrete goal programming approach

Let us consider i = 1, 2,...n alternative forest plans to be evaluated according to j = 1, 2,...m indicators of sustainability. An expert or panel of experts suggests a set of targets or desirable levels of achievement for the m indicators of sustainability considered. Within this context, an important problem is to determine the system with a higher level of achievement with respect to the targets attached by the expert to the m indicators. A natural extension of this problem involves determining a ranking of the n systems considered. A general procedure based on discrete goal programming is proposed to address these problems. The methodology is applied in a case study of a Spanish forest.     

Interaction Between Scientists and Nonscientists in Community-Based Watershed Management: Emergence of the Concept of Stream Naturalization

The authors' personal experience in watershed planning and decision making in the agricultural Midwest is described to illustrate how: (1) formalization of the process of community-based management is not sufficient to guarantee that local people will meaningfully consider scientific information and opinion when making decisions about watersheds, and (2) genuine social interaction between scientists and nonscientists requires a considerable investment of time and energy on the part of the scientist to develop personal relationships with nonscientists based on trust and mutual exchange of information. This experience provides the basis for developing a general conceptual model of the interaction between scientists and nonscientists in community-based watershed management in the agricultural Midwest. An important aspect of integrating science effectively into community-based decision making is the need to revise existing concepts to accommodate place-based contexts. Stream naturalization is introduced as an alternative to stream restoration and rehabilitation, which are viewed as inappropriate management strategies in human-dominated environments. Stream naturalization seeks to establish sustainable, morphologically and hydraulically varied, yet dynamically stable fluvial systems that are capable of supporting healthy, biologically diverse aquatic ecosystems. This general goal is consistent with the types of stream-management practices emerging from community-based decision making in human-dominated, agricultural landscapes. Further research on the linkages between geomorphological and ecological dynamics of human-modified agricultural streams over multiple spatial and temporal scales is needed to provide a sound scientific framework for stream naturalization.     

Designing regional-level stakeholder engagement processes: striving for good governance while meeting the challenges of scale

Stakeholder engagement processes have sought to ensure that state government meets public trust and good governance obligations to citizens. As the expectations of stakeholders and state agencies change, and management focuses on landscape-level interventions, a change in the level at which agencies engage the public is needed. This involves tradeoffs, as different levels call for different engagement design and implementation considerations. To understand how these differences affect decision making, we examine a regional engagement model for deer management in New York that was piloted to replace a sub-regional model. We identify concerns with the old model, objectives for the redesigned model, and explain the logistical and good governance considerations that informed its design. We share our evaluation of the model's process and outcomes, including implications for program design and scale. Overall, despite the pilot model's attention to design components aimed at addressing potential barriers to regional engagement as well as limitations of the previous engagement model, the pilot did not meet many of its objectives, especially those related to representation, resulting in some of the same concerns associated with the model it was intended to enhance and replace. Implications of this for regional-level engagement efforts are discussed.     

Characterising the landscape of state environmental review policies and procedures in the United States: a national assessment

Following the intent of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, many states have adopted policies and procedures directing state agencies and local government units to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of development projects prior to their undertaking. In contrast to a rich literature on federal requirements, current understanding of state environmental review is narrowly focused and outdated. This paper seeks to provide information on the landscape of state environmental review policy frameworks. The paper identifies 37 states with formal environmental review requirements through a document review of state statutes, administrative rules and agency-prepared materials, and confirms this finding through a survey of state administrators. A two-tier classification is used to distinguish states based on the approach taken to address environmental review needs and the scope and depth of relevant policies and procedures implemented. This paper also provides a discussion of policy and programme attributes that may contribute to effective practice, and of the potential for adopting relevant legislation in states where environmental review is currently lacking.     

Environmental audit: III. Improving the management of environmental information for toxic substances

Environmental programs have been commonly driven by a preoccupation with the collection of data in the mistaken belief thatdata is synonymous withinformation. The distinction between data (that is, the quantified and qualitative attributes of a particular environment) and information (specifically, data processed so as to focus upon a particular environmental problem) will become far more important to environmental managers. They will increasingly manage their information through use of what has become known as information resource management (IRM) and the attendant use of critical success factors methodology. Environmental managers will thereby move away from concerns about data and specific EDP hardware and applications toward managing information as a valuable agency resource. In applying IRM, they will find it helpful to include a number of planning elements and to resolve early a number of issues critical to its successful use.     

Getting caught up in the game: managing non-formal dynamics in the remediation of contaminated sediments in Oslo harbor

This study aims at describing, analyzing and evaluating the relation between management styles and process dynamics of a complex planning process confronted with unexpected dynamics. The development of an aquatic disposal site for dredged contaminated sediments in Oslo was managed by a project management style focused on timely and cost-effective implementation. Coupling the remediation project with another infrastructural project and the actual construction of the site led to unexpected dynamics in terms of resistance and controversy. Project management had difficulties in adjusting its style accordingly, resulting in even more delay and resistance. Managing complex planning projects requires a style suitable to the characteristics of the project and the capability of adjusting it to changing circumstances. The paper concludes with some explanations why it is difficult to change management styles in complex planning and implementation processes and complexity-embracing approaches to deal with this.     

Ecosystem services assessments in local municipal decision making in South Africa: justification for the use of a business-based approach

The ecosystem services (ES) concept is being increasingly incorporated into environmental policy formulation and management approaches. The Corporate Ecosystem Services Review (ESR) is a framework used to assess the dependence and impact that a business has on ES. The success of the corporate experience of ES assessment provides an opportunity for adaption for local authority decision making. In this paper, the ESR tool was adapted to the South African setting at a local government level, and tested at two sites in the Msunduzi Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal. In testing the tool and gathering feedback from key stakeholders, it was found that there are both opportunities and challenges to this approach. Overall, however, it provides an opportunity for the systematic inclusion of ES assessment into existing regulatory frameworks for land-use planning and Integrated Environmental Management, whether in a strategic application, at a broader spatial (municipal) scale or in a specific locale within the municipality.     

Stakeholder Perceptions of Scientists: Lake Tahoe Environmental Policy from 1984 to 2001

What factors explain stakeholders’ perceptions of scientists in environmental politics? Questionnaire data are used to examine stakeholders’ views of scientific experts in the context of Lake Tahoe environmental policy from 1984 to 2001. Stakeholders’ perceptions of scientists have remained the same over time – despite a shift from adversarial to collaborative policymaking and after decades of mounting scientific evidence showing water quality declines. On average, stakeholders perceive scientists with limited influence on Lake Tahoe environmental policy and view them with mixed levels of skepticism. Stakeholders’ evaluation of scientists is best explained by their beliefs about development versus the environment. Stakeholders in favor of more land development express distrust of scientists and negatively evaluate university researchers and consultants. Stakeholders in favor of environmental protection are more likely to trust scientists and positively evaluate university researchers and consultants.     

Collective action in water-point management: The case of pastoral and agropastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia

This paper explores collective activities in water-point management by pastoral and agropastoral herders. It examines conditions that strengthen or weaken cooperative behaviour. By employing a comparative case study approach, the paper covers three types of water-points: ponds, cisterns and water wells. Results show that factors beyond the expectation of economic benefits influence the development of cooperative behaviour, including embedded social relationships, which provide a basis for sanctions. However, the absence of clear allocation rules and of secure property rights discourages sustained contribution of inputs. The study also finds that the contribution, and the ultimate benefits gained, by the members of the group are dependent on limited technological options and other attributes of the water-points they manage. Interestingly, divergence of interests (between economic elites and poor herders) in institutional change precluding the establishment of cisterns negatively affects the livelihoods of the poor (agro) pastoralists. Where internal capacity is limited, assisted collective action that builds on diverse local interests could contribute to sustainable management of collectively used water-points. The study concludes that both economic incentives and socio-cultural norms affect collective action in a more complex way than the theory of determinants of collective action predicts.     

Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques

The objective of this study is to develop an alternative evaluation index (AEI) in order to determine the priorities of a range of alternatives using both the hydrological simulation program in FORTRAN (HSPF) and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. In order to formulate the HSPF model, sensitivity analyses of water quantity (peak discharge and total volume) and quality (BOD peak concentrations and total loads) are conducted and a number of critical parameters were selected. To achieve a more precise simulation, the study watershed is divided into four regions for calibration and verification according to landuse, location, slope, and climate data. All evaluation criteria were selected using the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) model, a sustainability evaluation concept. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to estimate the weights of the criteria and the effects of water quantity and quality were quantified by HSPF simulation. In addition, AEIs that reflected residents' preferences for management objectives are proposed in order to induce the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process.     

Federal and state management of inland wetlands: Are states ready to assume control?

As inland wetlands face increasing pressure for development, both the federal government and individual states have begun reevaluating their respective wetland regulatory schemes. This article focuses first on the effectiveness of the past, present, and proposed federal regulations, most notably the Section 404, Dredge and Fill Permit Program, in dealing with shrinking wetland resources. The article then addresses the status of state involvement in this largely federal area, as well as state preparedness to assume primacy should federal priorities change. Finally, the subject of comprehensive legislation for wetland protection is investigated, and the article concludes with some procedural suggestions for developing a model law.     

Autonomous real-time adaptive management of soil salinity using a receding horizon control algorithm: a pilot-scale demonstration

Soil salinization is a potentially negative side effect of irrigation with reclaimed water. While optimization schemes have been applied to soil salinity control, these have typically failed to take advantage of real-time sensor feedback. This study incorporates current soil observation technologies into the optimal feedback-control scheme known as Receding Horizon Control (RHC) to enable successful autonomous control of soil salinization. RHC uses real-time sensor measurements, physically-based state prediction models, and optimization algorithms to drive field conditions to a desired environmental state by manipulating application rate or irrigation duration/frequency. A simulation model including the Richards equation coupled to energy and solute transport equations is employed as a state estimator. Vertical multi-sensor arrays installed in the soil provide initial conditions and continuous feedback to the control scheme. An optimization algorithm determines the optimal irrigation rate or frequency subject to imposed constraints protective of soil salinization. A small-scale field test demonstrates that the RHC scheme is capable of autonomously maintaining specified salt levels at a prescribed soil depth. This finding suggests that, given an adequately structured and trained simulation model, sensor networks, and optimization algorithms can be integrated using RHC to autonomously achieve water reuse and agricultural objectives while managing soil salinization.