景观服务评估与制图研究进展

目前,从景观尺度上探讨生态系统服务服务得到越来越多国内外学者的关注。相比生态系统服务,景观服务能更好的反映生态系统的空间格局关系,已经成为景观生态学研究的前沿。本文介绍了景观服务的定义、分类指标,总结了景观服务价值评估常用方法、定量化制图方法,最后展望了未来景观服务相关研究的趋势。其研究趋势是应完善景观服务的概念与分类指标体系,建立科学的服务价值评估方法与定量化制图,探索多项景观服务间的相互机理。     

科学与政治之间:大规模政府间气候评估及其缺陷

在应对全球气候变化问题上,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)引领的大规模评估由于代表了国际科学界的集体工作,并与《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的国际谈判制度持续互动而备受关注。两者的密切关系已体现在气候治理的各个历史阶段。具体而言,通过嵌入国际制度,气候评估具有警告公众、影响国家政策取向、推动国际协议、促使跨国公司改变行为、引领科学研究和学术交流等重要作用。同时,IPCC还通过传播评估报告结论等方式参与国际气候外交。由于其开放性,科学评估也经常成为国家行为体和非国家行为体施加影响的政策工具。从科学与政治互动的积极方面来看,其一,科学评估机构一贯充当推动国际气候进程的角色,并凭借权威性,不断强化科学信息的政策扩散。其二,第五次报告发布之后,评估日益突出"解决方案"取向,2018年升温1.5℃特别报告和后续的第六次评估报告将影响《巴黎协定》的履约情况,其未来演进与机制改革也将深刻塑造2020年后的全球气候治理。虽然,气候评估已经证明了其作为科学合作机制的价值,但与国际谈判的关系也存在一些紧张之处:一是,评估机制弊端频现,影响对谈判的支撑。二是,机制安排的路径依赖性严重,缺乏重大而有效的改革。三是,评估结论的传播日益困难。四是,其评估内容与国际谈判时常脱节。本质上,这是由于科学形成共识规律与科学机构形成共识的政治机制存在矛盾。一方面,学科间的差异化和文献数量庞大导致评价日益难以形成共识;另一方面,科学机构作为"认知权威"具有以共识推动政治进程并提升其国际地位的偏好。两者围绕所谓的"共识"问题所形成的困境已经日益彰显。因此,重新理解政府间气候评估在全球政策制定中的角色已经成为当前治理中的紧迫问题。     

IPCC的成立、机制、影响及争议

通过对IPCC成立背景、工作机制、主要报告与影响、有关争议的研究,特别是有关历史背景和第六次评估报告的进展,提出对中国开展气候变化评估的启示建议,供中国相关工作参考。对IPCC成立历史背景的研究发现,在科学家和国际组织的持续推动下,气候变化越来越得到各国政府的重视,为避免独立专家组可能带来的激进环保主义倾向,1988年成立了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC),将专家纳入到政府间框架下专门开展气候变化评估,提供关于气候变化的权威信息,并遵循科学家与政府一致同意方才发布报告的原则开展工作。IPCC通过组织会员国推荐的志愿专家开展评估,建立了由主席团、工作组构成的专家评估团队以及支持主席团政务工作的秘书处、支持工作组的技术支持组,按照建立组织与程序、确定评估范围与专家、编制与审稿、批准与发布等四个环节开展工作。自1990年以来已经发布了五次评估报告,为《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)、《京都议定书》《巴黎协定》等协议的达成提供了科学依据,目前正在开展第六次评估,将重点面向2023年UNFCCC全球盘点。虽然IPCC在工作审查程序、行政管理效率、政府批准决策者摘要等方面有一些争议,但工作总体上是成功的,并在2010年进行了改革优化,受到科学界和国际组织的承认和拥护。从IPCC的经验来看,积极寻找和达成共识是科学与政治决策协同合作的核心要素,未来气候评估将更加重视科学与政策的联系以及跨学科、跨领域、技术驱动和不确定性问题,针对复杂系统的科学评估需要不断完善相应管理制度,中国气候评估也需要积极响应国际进展,突出特色与重点。     

中国气候变化科学认识进展及未来展望——中国《第四次气候变化国家评估报告·第一部分》解读

《第四次气候变化国家评估报告》气候变化的科学认识部分反映了自2015年以来,基于气候系统观测、古气候档案、理论研究和气候模拟等科学分析,取得的一系列关于中国气候变化的新证据、新认识,总结了中国大气、海洋、冰冻圈、生物圈等气候基本变量以及极端事件、典型区域的气候变化特征,分析了影响气候变化的自然、人类活动驱动因子的变化,预估了中国未来气候变化趋势。在此基础上,比较了此次评估报告与《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》在框架结构、结论认识等方面的新特点,指出中国气候变化评估报告体系性不断丰富、科学基础的认识不断深化。文章最后通过和政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估第一工作组报告的初步比较,提出了未来我国在气候变化监测诊断、检测归因、模拟预估,以及工具方法等方面应加强的内容。     

河流水污染损失补偿模型研究

我国水污染问题的突出表现之一是省际间、地区间水污染纠纷接连不断, 严重影响经济发展和社会稳定。在流域不同主体之间建立水污染补偿机制,可以把水污染造成的环境外部损失内部化,从而促使污染者在治污成本和经济补偿之间进行权衡,促进水污染治理措施的有效执行和水污染纠纷的解决。在水污染经济损失评估的基础上,以河流为研究对象,采用水环境数学模型的方法描述了污染物排放的空间影响关系,进而把超量排放的环境影响与经济影响联系起来,对模型的基本特征、处理方法和应用范围进行了讨论,并且以太湖流域范围内的京杭运河为例进行实证研究,得到了河流水污染损失补偿的数学模型。     

墨西哥环境流量评估方法研究

"一带一路"倡议的提出,加强了中国与其它国家的国际合作,提高了中国标准与国际标准对接的要求。本文系统梳理了墨西哥环境流量评估的相关规定,分析了墨西哥环境流量评估的方法、计算准则和评估流程,通过对比分析中国-墨西哥环境流量评估方法,识别了主要的异同点。研究可为完善环境流量评估的理论方法和管理标准提供参考,为河流生态环境保护和可持续发展、以及"一带一路"沿线的国际合作提供技术支撑。     

中国碳交易市场CO_2排放权地区间分配效率研究

由于我国地区间资源禀赋和经济发展水平存在差异,在碳排放总量一定的前提下,充分考虑地域间的差异以选取合理的地区间分配方式对实现2016年全国统一碳市场的建立至关重要。本文试图通过零和DEA模型寻求一种新的碳排放权分配方式,在考虑地区间人口和经济差异的基础上实现满足DEA的效率性水平。本文首先通过零和DEA模型对历史排放分配法的效率性水平进行评估,由于历史排放分配法主要受能源消费模式和产业结构决定,不能全面的反映不同地区间的发展和资源禀赋等情况,导致减排成本分配的不合理,从而缺乏效率性;然后根据初次零和DEA的评估结果,通过多次迭代法进行投影,计算出效率性最大化的地区分配方案,从最终的分配结果来看,江苏、山东和广东三省的综合产出因素值高于其他省市地区,最终的CO2排放权分配数量也最多,说明在零和DEA方法下,各地区排放权的分配数量与该地区的经济总量和人口数量成正比;最后,在影响CO2排放的因素中,能源强度和经济发展水平影响最为明显。这说明从短期看,受经济发展要求和要素禀赋的限制,我国碳排放量的绝对值在未来一定时期内仍将处于上升阶段。     

基于遥感技术的长江三角洲海岸带生态系统服务价值评估

长三角海岸带是长江三角洲与东海间的重要过渡性区域,基于联合国千年评估提出的生态系统服务框架,以生态学为原理、以遥感反演技术为手段、借助经济学方法,对2005年及2008年长三角海岸带的10项生态系统服务价值进行了评估。结果表明,长三角海岸带2005及2008年的生态系统服务总价值分别为1 235.92、1 493.04亿元,与长三角地区实际GDP对比得出,生态系统服务价值实际降低,海岸带生态环境退化;对于不同的生态系统来说,林地、耕地、湿地的生态系统服务价值较高,为增强生态系统可持续发展应重点加以保护;对于不同的生态系统服务功能来说,旅游娱乐服务、土壤保持、调节水源为价值量最大的3项服务,而调节空气质量、精神文化服务、养分循环为价值量最小的3项服务。     

绿色供应链管理研究进展评述

绿色供应链管理综合了环境管理和供应链管理思想,是近年来国内外的研究热点。本文根据绿色供应链管理研究的三主题:概念研究、评估机制研究和实施机制研究,对绿色供应链管理研究进展进行了评述。通过评述发现,我国绿色供应链管理研究起源于国外的绿色制造理论,与国外绿色供应链管理研究源于企业发展压力不同;绿色供应链管理的评估机制分为评估内容和评估方法两部分,其中评估内容的发展直接影响了绿色供应链管理内涵的发展;在评估方法的研究上,国外较多应用层次分析法(AHP)、线性规划法和统计分析方法,且定量研究较多,我国的评估方法较多借鉴国外,缺乏定量研究。对实施机制深入研究将是国内外今后研究的趋势和方向。     

屋顶可用太阳能资源评估研究——以2000年江苏省数据为例

传统的太阳能资源评估方法是直接评估太阳能的理论储量,极少考虑太阳能使用的具体情景。基于防范传统能源使用风险的需要,根据长期观测得到的太阳辐射数据,结合太阳辐射的地理分布特征和利用太阳能的具体情形,选用技术比较成熟且易于并网使用的屋顶光伏系统作为评价依据,借助于GIS的空间分析功能,把太阳能的自然属性和社会属性结合起来,〖JP2〗建立了屋顶可用太阳能资源评估方法模型,并以江苏省为例对当地可用的太阳能资源进行了评估验证。通过分析发现,与单纯的评估太阳能理论储量相比,用屋顶可用太阳能资源评估方法得出的结果真实可信,更加符合太阳能使用的实际情形,可以直接为当地防范传统能源风险及制定能源发展规划所用     

我国珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化的对策探讨

基于气候变化下部分珍稀濒危物种脆弱性分析,初步提出了适应对策,探讨了部分物种适应措施。气候变化下,珍稀濒危物种脆弱性表现在物种分布范围减少、破碎化和失去原分布范围、丰富度下降、种群数量减少、物种灭绝、栖息地退化或消失等。珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化需要分析物种自然适应机制,加强就地保护,增加种群数量,开展迁地和遗传保护,减少其它干扰,保护和恢复栖息地,建立自然保护区适应对策等。每个物种需要分析目前濒危程度和气候变化下的脆弱性来提出适应对策。     

Beyond Frames: Recovering the Strategic in Climate Communication

Recent calls for communication scholars and practitioners to identify effective communication means for mobilizing constituencies to address climate change often fall to distinguish between communicative acts that “mobilize” and mobilization that enables a particular end. The latter presupposes an account of the intentional or strategic alignment of mobilization, that is, the predicted or assumed relationships among a mobilized public, the mode(s) of influence or leverage this creates, and the expected consequences of such influence, i.e., how specific communicative efforts are related to outcomes or “effects” within a system. This essay argues that the neglect of strategic alignments in some recent climate communication campaigns have caused these campaigns to be non-adaptive at the scale and/or urgency required. Drawing on case studies of the 2007 Step It Up initiative and the Sierra Club's “Beyond Coal” campaign, the essay proposes viewing the strategic as an heuristic for identifying openings within networks of contingent relationships and the potential of certain communicative efforts to interrupt or leverage change within systems of power.     

Effects of organic acids on copper and cadmium desorption from contaminated soils

A study was conducted to investigate the effect of organic acids on Cd and Cu desorption from natural contaminated soils (NCS) with permanent contamination by metal smelters and from artificial contaminated soils (ACS) derived from an artificial amendment of Cd to three representative zonal soils in Central China. Results showed that the desorption of Cd in either NCS or ACS, with the increment of tartrate or citrate concentration in desorption solution, can be characterized as a valley-like curve. The presence of tartrate or citrate at a low concentration (< or =0.5 mmol/l) inhibited Cd desorption from these two types of soils, whereas the presence of organic acids at high concentrations (> or =2 mmol/l for citrate and about > or =15 mmol/l for tartrate) apparently promoted Cd desorption. The desorption curve of Cu by tartrate solution with different tartrate concentrations can also be characterized as a valley-like curve, while the desorption of Cu in the presence of citrate was directly enhanced with the increment of citrate concentration. With the enhancement of initial pH value from 2 to 8 in the presence of citrate, Cu desorption ratio decreased at the first stage, then increased, and then decreased again. A valley and a peak sequentially appeared in the Cd or Cu desorption curve with initial pH value increment. Compared with citrate, the desorption ratio of Cd or Cu from NCS or ACS was directly decreased in the presence of tartrate, with the enhancement of the pH value from 2 to 8. Cd or Cu desorption was clearly enhanced when the electrolyte concentration of KNO3 or KCl increased in the presence of 2 mmol/l tartrate. Moreover, a higher desorption ratio of Cd or Cu was shown with KCl electrolyte than with KNO3 electrolyte with the same concentration. Based on these observations, we suggest that bioavailabilities of heavy metal can be promoted with selected suitable types and concentrations of organic acid amendment and reasonable field condition.     

西北地区生态建设中退耕还林还草与农牧业经营方式的转变：—以内蒙古自治区准格尔旗为例

本文以内蒙古自治区准格尔旗为例,对当前退耕还林还草制度安排中存在的问题进行了分析,认为,西北地区退耕还林还草必须与改造长期占据主导地位的传统农牧业经营方式结合起来,才有可能取得预期的成效;中央政府除了对退耕还林还草进行直接的经济资助外,应为改造传统农牧业经营方式创造良好的外部环境。     

Making the user more efficient: design for sustainable behaviour

User behaviour is a significant determinant of a product's environmental impact; while engineering advances permit increased efficiency of product operation, the user's decisions and habits ultimately have a major effect on the energy or other resources used by the product. There is thus a need to change users' behaviour. A range of design techniques developed in diverse contexts suggest opportunities for engineers, designers and other stakeholders working in the field of sustainable innovation to affect users' behaviour at the point of interaction with the product or system, in effect ‘making the user more efficient’. Approaches to changing users' behaviour from a number of fields are reviewed and discussed, including: strategic design of affordances and behaviour‐shaping constraints to control or affect energy‐ or other resource‐using interactions; the use of different kinds of feedback and persuasive technology techniques to encourage or guide users to reduce their environmental impact; and context‐based systems which use feedback to adjust their behaviour to run at optimum efficiency and reduce the opportunity for user‐affected inefficiency. Example implementations in the sustainable engineering and ecodesign field are suggested and discussed.     

基于多叉树的遍历算法在数字水系拓扑关系计算中的应用

数字水系中各网格或子流域之间的拓扑关系是正确反映洪水演算顺序的重要环节。针对目前流域拓扑关系计算中存在的问题,提出了一种基于多叉树的流域拓扑关系计算方法,该算法将流域中的网格或子流域概化成树形结构的结点图,运用后序遍历递归算法,可快速自动建立反映洪水演算顺序的拓扑结构,解决了复杂流域洪水的演算集成问题,为分布式水文模型的开发研制奠定了坚实的基础,具有较强的实用价值。     

1949年以来中国环境与发展关系的演变

从IPAT方程出发,发现了环境影响随着经济发展或时间的演变依次遵循三个"倒U型"曲线规律,即环境影响强度的倒U型曲线、人均环境影响的倒U型曲线和环境影响总量的倒U型曲线。根据此规律,可以将该演化过程划分为四个阶段即:环境影响强度高峰前阶段、环境影响强度高峰到人均环境影响量高峰阶段、人均环境影响量高峰到环境影响总量高峰阶段以及环境影响总量稳定下降阶段。在环境演变的不同阶段,主要驱动力存在着明显的差异。在环境影响强度高峰前阶段,资源消耗或污染物排放增长更多地由资源或污染密集型技术进步驱动;在资源消耗或污染物强度高峰到人均资源消耗或污染物排放高峰阶段,主要由经济增长驱动;而在人均资源消耗或污染物排放高峰到资源消耗或污染物排放总量高峰阶段以及总量高峰以后的发展阶段,则主要由节约高效技术或污染减排技术进步来驱动。实证分析表明,中国目前环境与发展关系基本上处于经济增长主要驱动的环境影响强度高峰向人均环境影响高峰过渡阶段,这同时意味着中国要在短期内实现人均环境影响和环境影响总量高峰的跨越是异常困难的。     

Institutional aspects of indoor air pollution in energy efficient residences

This paper examines the institutional constraints regarding indoor air pollution that exist or may be imposed on the housing industry. These constraints may be manifested in building codes and health laws, tax incentives and spending subsidies, and/or regulations restricting the activities of the industry itself. It also assesses the potential liabilities of designers, manufacturers, builders, and owners of energy-efficient residences should they fail to take appropriate actions to address indoor air quality problems. These liabilities may result from product liability (defective design or manufacture), breach of warranty, or negligence, causing harm to people from indoor air pollution.     

Urban horticulture: its significance to environmental conservation

Urban horticulture, defined as plant production activities that are conducted in a city or suburb that produce horticultural plants that are wholly or partially edible, and which are economically viable, has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions caused by the transportation of produce. Moreover, to increase productivity in limited areas and use limited resources effectively, closed or semi-closed systems (i.e., greenhouses) are considered more advantageous than open systems (i.e., fields) from which resources can easily escape into the surrounding environment. In this paper the significance of urban horticulture in reducing CO₂ emissions in the transportation process is discussed with reference to simple case studies. In the context of building or rebuilding greenhouses suitable for urban horticulture, the present situation regarding resource inputs and outputs in greenhouses is compared to that in open fields. The reduction of resource inputs and outputs in greenhouse production is also discussed.     

Determining when contamination is pollution - weight of evidence determinations for sediments and effluents

Contamination is simply the presence of a substance where it should not be or at concentrations above background. Pollution is contamination that results in or can result in adverse biological effects to resident communities. All pollutants are contaminants, but not all contaminants are pollutants. Differentiating pollution from contamination cannot be done solely on the basis of chemical analyses because such analyses provide no information on bioavailability or on toxicity. Effects-based measures such as laboratory or field toxicity tests and measures of the status of resident, exposed communities provide key information, but cannot be used independently to determine pollution status. Laboratory studies can be predictive, but are rarely realistic. Measures of resident communities include innate natural variability and cannot easily distinguish between adaptation to contamination (a genetic process) and acclimation (a physiological process that may decrease energy reserves, possibly reducing such critical population-level parameters as reproduction). Finally, contaminant effects may not only be direct but also indirect; predicting such effects requires knowledge of the system under study as well as appropriate use of lines of evidence (LOE) such as toxicity tests directed to key species. Consequently, in sediments, effluents or other inputs/environmental compartments, determining when contamination is or may in future become pollution, requires a weight of evidence (WOE) assessment using different LOE appropriate to the situation under investigation. WOE investigations provide two different types of information: definitive conclusions regarding pollution; or, information as to what additional, investigative studies are necessary for definitive conclusions. Effectively, a WOE assessment comprises an initial screening-level ecological risk assessment (ERA), which may be followed by a detailed-level ERA if key uncertainties need to be resolved.