Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective

Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process.     

Models for Initial Allocation of Emission Permits in a River Basin During Industrial Development： A Case Study of Huaihe River Basin, China

At present,water pollutant emission trading plays an increasingly important role in pollution control in many foreign countries,and its pilot studies and demonstration have also been started in China.In order to solve the problem of initial allocation of emission permits: premise and basis of emission trading in a river basin,basic principles on initial allocation of actual emission permits in China are put forward.And it is thought that local development stage of industry should be taken into full account for initial allocation model of emission permits.There are five different allocation models in different development stages of industry,including models like distribution according to needs,improved same-rate reduction,performance,integration and environmental capacity,etc.The initial allocation of emission permits in various basins should choose a suitable model in accordance with their respective development stages.It is suggested in this article that integrated allocation model should be a main choice for current development stage of industry in China.     

Policy diffusion in arid Basin water management: a Q method approach in the Murray–Darling Basin,Australia

The Murray–Darling Basin is Australia’s national food bowl, home to almost half of the national income from food production, as well as internationally significant wetlands, iconic red gum forests, endangered flora and fauna, and approximately 40 autonomous indigenous nations. Persistent severe drought and extreme flooding episodes have presented new challenges in the region. Chief among these challenges is the establishment of a legitimate framework to sustainably manage water resources that finds common ground between environmental, indigenous and commercial interests. A powerful approach to examine these processes is through the theory of diffusion and adaptation of policy innovations. Here, we describe an approach to place this theory on empirical ground using Q methodology. We elucidate patterns of subjectivity, to explore the perceptions of expert advice, subsidiarity and local knowledge to better understand the interests in play. We find that respect is held for local practitioners (water managers and farmers) and indigenous knowledge, but while policy innovations are being generated, the diffusion of policy is contested. We identify the potential, though limited, for common ground through substantive and respectful consultation.     

Understanding India’s forest bureaucracy: a review

Forest administrators play a crucial role in translating conservation and development policies into action, yet policy reformers and scholars rarely examine how these administrators make decisions about the implementation of conservation and development policy in India. In this paper, I address this gap. I begin by developing a framework that draws on Western policy implementation studies and Ostrom’s Institutional Analysis and Development framework and then apply this framework to a review of published studies that examine the role of forest officials in implementing public policies in India. The framework differentiates between formal and informal institutions and between institutions which are developed within an agency and those that are directed from outside the agency. I find that forester behavior varies significantly across space and time and has an important influence on the outcome of forestry programs. Innovations and excellent program implementation appear related to foresters’ desire to demonstrate professional efficacy. On the other hand, many failings can be traced either to external direction or to foresters developing internal institutions that are poorly suited to the problems they are tasked with solving. Existing research is limited in its geographic and temporal scope and leaves many questions unanswered, and thus, the review concludes with a brief outline of future research needs.     

Stakeholder responses to future flood management ideas in the Rhine River Basin: nature or neighbour in Hell’s Angle

Summary This article identifies responses of stakeholders to future management of the Rhine River Basin, notably to the plan Rhine In The Future. This plan foresees the construction of a bypass between the rivers Rhine and IJssel, the Green River. The Green River would be a nature reserve area that can be flooded during high water discharges. The inhabitants of the area would be permanently relocated. Their defence of stakes will be coloured by patterns of acting and thinking that belong to respectively postmodernity, modernity and pre-modernity. These different colourings show in negotiation skills, levels of organisations, alertness, power positions, and access to local and outside resources. Most local stakeholders appreciate the postmodern environmentalism that leads to the greening of river management, but regret the loss of their strong, pre-modern, social cohesion. Whereas they consider national interests in a rather balanced way, they doubt the necessity of the bypass for safety reasons. They have confidence in financial compensations for relocation, but will negotiate about these compensations with skill and determination. Their tactics will be reinforced by collective efforts that stem from their social cohesion.One professor says it will be dryer, the other one says it will be wetter.We all have mobile telephones so we know it when the water comes.The social cohesion of this community will be lost forever.When youre not bought out youll be the real victim.We like to have a nature reserve area around here.     

Sustaining water supply through a phased community management approach: lessons from Ghana’s “oats” water supply scheme

Water sector reforms in Ghana and in other developing countries resulted in the adoption of the community management approach for water systems in an effort to ensure better management and service delivery. However, community management is also plagued internal differences, paucity of technical skills, and insufficient management experience. This article presents a case study of a successful community management system in Ghana that utilized a two-phase comanagement period before a full transfer of management responsibilities to the four communities. The first phase of 3 months was a more intensive comanagement system under which the communities teamed up with public agencies and a private firm to manage the water system. This enabled the communities to acquire hands-on management experience and also tap needed skills from external agencies before a second phase of 3 months characterized by gradual withdrawal of private agency support, and a simultaneous measured assumption of higher responsibilities by the communities. Communities thereafter assumed full management responsibility of the water system and have since then posted significant successes in financial management and operations of the system such that some profits have been generated, there is regular water supply and the system operates without major technical hitches. This strategy illustrates the fact that successful community management system is possible if local capacity is adequately strengthened with external support prior to assumption of full community control of water supply systems, and if assumption of responsibilities is pursued gradually.     

The human cycle of water: water management and anthropogenic contaminant pathways in Pótam,Sonora, Mexico’s water cycle

Women are the primary decision makers regarding household water sources in many developing nations, but are often overlooked by researchers and organizations as primary water managers. This study took place in Pótam, Sonora, Mexico, during the summer of 2007, with a follow-up visit in February 2008. The study aimed at understand the human cycle of water by identifying potential exposure pathways for water contamination, as well as to understand the link between cultural beliefs, perceptions, and associated health issues. In total, sixty women were interviewed, as well as community elders and the Water Committee president. Discussions of household water use decisions, perceptions of disease causation, and treatment proved crucial in the discovery of potential pathways by which anthropogenic contaminants come into contact with the water cycle in Pótam. Most of the households (87%) believe their water sources are contaminated with biological and or chemical contaminants. Furthermore, of the sixty informants interviewed, seventy percent reported diarrhea as a common symptom. The majority of informants (76%) made a link between consumption of contaminated water and high rates of diarrhea. The study determined that the community is in need of outreach programs geared toward women as household water managers, independent lab analysis of water quality samples, and an epidemiological study to determine the causes for the most commonly reported illness and symptoms.     

Environmental regulation and firms’ performance: a quasi-natural experiment from China

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates whether environmental regulation affects firm’s performance including productivity, wage and employment using firm-level data in 1996–2007. The identification uses Two Control Zones (TCZ) policy implemented by the Chinese government in 1998, in which tougher environmental regulations were imposed in TCZ cities but not others. By difference-in-differences estimation, we find that tougher environmental regulation leads to larger increase on both total factor productivity and wage, and firms tend to employ fewer workers under pressure of environmental protection. Heterogeneous tests show that the impacts are better for non-pollution intensive firms, non-exporters and SOEs. Finally, we find that R&D input and exiting firms among industry are the driving forces for enhancing TFP and increasing wage and unemployment.     

China’s Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy:2006-2010

China achieved major progress in low-carbon development during the period of the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010). The increasing trend of energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy as seen prior to 2005 was reversed to a sharp decreasing trend, leading to a 19% decrease in energy intensity and 21% decrease in carbon intensity in five years. The enhanced energy efficiency, mostly due to efficiency improvement in power and manufacturing sector, is the major driver of the decrease in carbon intensity of the economy. The development of renewable energy, despite its impressive growth rate, played a minor role because of its small share in the energy mix of the country. Energy con-sumption and energy-related carbon emissions per unit of area in building continued to grow at a lesser rate, which, combined with the fast growth of total building volume, led to fast growth in total energy consumption and carbon emissions in the sector. Similar trend is observed in the transportation sector whose total energy use and carbon emissions continued to grow fast despite slight improvement in energy efficiency. Agricultural energy use experienced a slight change and forestry made a major contribution to carbon sinks. Policy and institutional innovations helped build a solid system of rules for low-carbon development. Improving cost effectiveness of the system remains a major challenge for the next five year plan period.     

Rural migrants’ participation in old-age insurance: a case study of the inter-provincial migrant workers from Sichuan,China

Old-age pension, a fundamental part of the Chinese social security system, is perceived by the Chinese government as the last support for rural-to-urban migrant workers upon retreating from the labor market. Using survey data collected by the authors, this paper examines a host of factors which influence migrant workers’ participation in the old-age scheme. The result shows that individual characteristics, employment status, attitudes toward old-age support and perception of the old-age pension system significantly differentiate two groups of migrant workers between those that have participated in and their counterparts who have not participated in the old-age pension schemes. Among a number of factors, age, educational attainment, holding labor contract, etc. are found to be significant factors influencing migrants’ behavior participating (or not participating) the available age-pension schemes. Policy implications for how to improve the rate of participation in existing old-age pension schemes among migrant workers are drawn from the findings.     

The role of gender in local residents’ relationships with Gaoligongshan Nature Reserve,Yunnan, China

Gender can play an important role in people’s relationships with the environment. Understanding if women and men perceive protected areas differently is an important facet of understanding park–people relationships. The objective of this study was to determine whether men and women differed in their relationship with Gaoligongshan Nature Reserve in Yunnan, China. We analyzed 523 surveys to explore differences between women’s and men’s attitudes, perceptions, knowledge, and use of the reserve. While the majority of women and men had positive attitudes toward the reserve, men were significantly more likely to be positive, had more knowledge about the reserve, and entered the reserve more than women. In addition, men were more likely than women to identify benefits and problems associated with the reserve. Using logistic regression, we explored different models to understand the gendered perceptions of problems and benefits of the reserve. We found that having less knowledge about the reserve contributed to women being less likely to perceive benefits, especially regulating services. Our results highlight the need for gender-sensitive approaches to park–people relationships in terms of management and research.     

Bridging the Maghreb’s water gap: from rationalizing the virtual water trade to enhancing the renewable energy desalination

The debate about the water resources shortages and finding appropriate solutions to close the water gap in many regions is still not finished. The Mediterranean region is among the most arid regions in the world and hosts more than the half of the world’s water-poor population. The situation is more severe in the southern shore of the Mediterranean, in particular, the Maghreb countries. In this region, water resources are very limited and polluted and most countries rely on groundwater yet overexploited. On the other hand, several factors, including rapid economic growth, expanding populations and changing climate, are driving up demand for water. This pushes forward the Maghreb countries to more and more rely on non-conventional and costly water resources such as wastewater treatment and desalination. Obviously, this bears a heavy burden on the economic growth within these countries. In this paper, rationalizing the virtual water trade and enhancing desalination using renewable energy are presented as two promising options to bridging the Maghreb’s water gap.     

Istanbul: the challenges of integrated water resources management in Europa’s megacity

Effective integrated water resources management (IWRM) and developments impacting on water resources are recognized as key components of environmentally sustainable development. Istanbul (Turkey) is a very large metropolitan city with a population of approximately 14 million. Istanbul is one of the 23 megacities (metropolitan areas with a population of more than 10 million) in the world and one of the most rapidly growing cities in Europe. The annual population growth is 2.8 %. The population growth in the city is almost twice the overall rate of the whole of Turkey, because of a large in-migration. The present study is a baseline assessment of IWRM of Istanbul and also provides a critical review of Istanbul’s future challenges. The assessment is part of an action on water governance (City Blueprints) in the context of the European Innovation Partnership on Water of the European Commission. The City Blueprint indicator approach and process have been applied as first step of gaining a better understanding of IWRM and the challenges ahead. This is done by using well-established and high-quality data sets, a relatively cost-effective online survey and a relatively simple questionnaire. Istanbul has set a good example to the challenges faced in water supply in megacities, where illegal settlements on watershed zones posed a threat to scarce water resources. Despite these enormous efforts, the projected future population growth and climate change in Istanbul will necessitate further major transitions towards sustainable IWRM. This holds for all aspects of the water cycle: water quality, water quantity, water supply and sanitation, coping with extreme weather events (floods and droughts), as well as for the protection of the sources of water, i.e. ecosystem conservation. Istanbul is a place where problems emerge and solutions need to be found. The time window available to do this is rapidly closing. As such, this review of IWRM of Istanbul confirms the conclusions of the World Economic Forum that water supply is one of the top three global risks for both the impact and likelihood. Our framework has been applied for nearly 40 cities, and the results for Istanbul are discussed in the broader context of recent initiatives on water governance and smart cities by the European Commission.     

Federalism,water, and (de)centralization in Brazil: the case of the São Francisco River water diversion

Regional Environmental Change - The Brazilian Northeastern semi-arid region’s history has been characterized by drought, water scarcity, and poor living conditions. For the last...     

Can regional economy influence China’s water use intensity?: based on refined LMDI method

China experienced a decline of water use intensity in the 11th Five Year Plan, but the water use intensity actually increased in 2009. To the best of our knowledge, the index decomposition analysis method was rarely used to analyze changes in water use, and no decomposition analysis has investigated the role of regional economy in the decline of water use intensity. In this paper, we use logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) techniques to decompose the change of water use intensity in the period 2006–2010. We find that the change of industrial water use intensity is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in the overall water use intensity; the regional structure effect and the industrial structure effect is positive to the decline of overall water use intensity; the decline of China’s water use intensity is mainly attributed to the effect of developed eastern provinces; meanwhile, the effect of central and undeveloped western is also positive to the decline of overall water use intensity; at least one out of three effects is positive to the decline of water use intensity in the different provinces; the intensity effect is positive and the industrial structure effect is positive to the declines of China’s water use intensity based on chaining approach except the period 2008–2009, individually; and the deviation of regional structure effect and industrial structure effect between with regional economy and without regional economy in LMDI is 0.9 and 2.3 m³/10⁴ RMB, respectively.     

Can regional economy influence China’s water use intensity?:based on refined LMDI method

China experienced a decline of water use intensity in the 11th Five Year Plan,but the water use intensity actually increased in 2009.To the best of our knowledge,the index decomposition analysis method was rarely used to analyze changes in water use,and no decomposition analysis has investigated the role of regional economy in the decline of water use intensity.In this paper,we use logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)techniques to decompose the change of water use intensity in the period 2006-2010.We find that the change of industrial water use intensity is confirmed as the dominant contributor to the decline in the overall water use intensity;the regional structure effect and the industrial structure effect is positive to the decline of overall water use intensity;the decline of China’s water use intensity is mainly attributed to the effect of developed eastern provinces;meanwhile,the effect of central and undeveloped western is also positive to the decline of overall water use intensity;at least one out of three effects is positive to the decline of water use intensity in the different provinces;the intensity effect is positive and the industrial structure effect is positive to the declines of China’s water use intensity based on chaining approach except the period 2008-2009,individually;and the deviation of regional structure effect and industrial structure effect between with regional economy and without regional economy in LMDI is 0.9 and2.3 m~3/10~4 RMB,respectively.     

Correlates of women’s environmental behaviors: a study in Pawe Woreda,Northwest Ethiopia

Available cross-country, macro-level evidence regarding gender differences in environmental behaviors shows women are more environmentally concerned and responsive than men. However, while such macro-level evidence helps understand patterns of women’s environmental behaviors at a much broader level, it does not allow deeper insights into particular patterns at a single location or in much smaller areas. Tailor-made interventions needed to address livelihood and environmental strategies of poor rural women become meaningful if studies aim at revealing context specific, local variations in women’s environmental behaviors. In this context, there is only little research for Ethiopia regarding what influences women’s response to environmental problems. The objective of this research was to describe women’s response to environmental problems in Pawe Woreda and examine the demographic, socioeconomic, and institutional correlates of this response, with particular emphasis to forest resources. Data were primarily obtained from a sample of 363 households in a multi-stage sample survey and were analyzed mainly using a multivariate logistic regression model. We found that all except one of the demographic and socioeconomic variables included in the model were found to be statistically significant correlates of woman’s environmental response, but the institutional variable was not significantly associated with a woman’s environmental response. However, the qualitative result for additional institutional issues revealed the importance of land tenure. Many of the results are in line with the existing literature.     

Mixed oligopoly,foreign penetration and China’s environmental policy: a research based on mixed oligopoly model

This paper analyzes how the foreign penetration affects China’s environment policy in a mixed oligopoly framework, and gets several interesting conclusions. First, our result shows that government should strengthen the degree of environmental policy along with increasing proportion of domestic ownership of multinational firms. Second, we show that an increase in domestic ownership of multinational firms raises not only domestic private firms’ profit but also public firm’s profit as well as social welfare. Third, the government will raise the environmental tax to control environmental damage.     

Conservation agriculture in Ecuador’s highlands: a discrete choice experiment

Conservation agriculture has successfully spread in a number of developing country contexts, resulting in both positive production and environmental impacts. However, there are ongoing questions about the appropriateness of conservation agriculture for small-scale farming as poor farmers tend to be risk averse, typically lack access to credit, and may have planning horizons associated with heavily discounted future benefits. This study investigates farmer attitudes toward how a hypothetical set of conservation agriculture production practices will affect yield, labor use, erosion, and cost in two communities of Bolivar province, Ecuador, through the implementation of a discrete choice experiment. Results show producers are most concerned with future yields, planting labor, and overall costs. While off-farm erosion impacts are of concern, producers only placed small values on these impacts. Results provide support for conservation agriculture outreach to highlight practices that increase long-run production and reduce the time and technical skills associated with planting.     

Governing China’s Coal Challenge: Changing Public Policy,Debate and Advocacy

This paper examines the nexus of coal–government–society relations in present-day China using a governmentality approach to explore the interactions between policy change, “crisis” management and social action. It outlines the noticeable shift in government rationalities and communication regarding the coal industry in recent years. It then frames this shift within the broader context of government–society relations focusing on public debate regarding the calamitous nature of China’s air pollution and its filtering via the censorship apparatus of the Communist Party-state. Finally, it shows how problems relating to coal extraction and combustion have been taken up at the level of grass-roots protest and philanthropic advocacy. An examination of such activism illustrates the crucial role played by digital media networks in sparking debate on coal-related environmental and health crises, and in pushing an authoritarian government to change national coal and other policies in order to maintain social and political stability.