湖南省旅游业发展的计量分析

近年来湖南旅游业发展迅猛,旅游业逐渐成为产业结构中重要组成部分。本文针对湖南省旅游业发展的相关驱动因子研究相对缺乏的现实,采取数学计量的方法探讨湖南省旅游业发展的驱动力,并采用聚类分析法,对湖南省旅游业的空间布局进行相关分析,为湖南省未来旅游业的健康协调发展提出相关发展思路和对策。     

Can conservation and development interventions in the Indian Central Himalaya ensure environmental sustainability? A socioecological evaluation

In biodiversity-rich areas, both conservation and socioeconomic development are at the core of discussions among various stakeholders, such as local people, policymakers, conservationists, resource management professionals, economists, researchers/scientists, and so forth. Various innovations are being provided that aim at promoting both improved livelihood for the people and the conservation and management of natural resources in the Central Himalaya of India. Many studies point out the factors responsible for the tremendous decline of natural resources and also how they have affected the local people’s livelihood options. In this context, the current study was undertaken to evaluate the potential of various solutions/innovations that are being implemented in the Himalayas of India. Unfortunately, only a few are found to be successful in both conservation and sustainable livelihood development. This study reveals that people are still looking for more viable solutions that could help them improve their lifestyle, as well as facilitating ecosystem conservation and supporting existing biodiversity. Based on the present study, it is argued that an in-depth empirical study of any region is a necessary process prior to offering solutions to achieve the desired goals, as considered by development agencies and policy-planners.     

Climate-adapted conservation: how to identify robust strategies for the management of reindeer in Hardangervidda National Park (Norway)

This paper presents an assessment scheme that should help local conservation management in their adaptation to potential effects of climate change. It can be used for the identification of robust adaptation options at site level. The assessment scheme was applied to the management of Europe’s largest population of wild mountain reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) living in the arctic-alpine plateau of Hardangervidda in south-western Norway. At first, the last four decades (1964–2004) were analysed to identify climate- and non-climate-related driving forces affecting the population. In addition, regional projections of climate change were used to build scenarios for the potential effects on these driving forces until 2050. In the second step, the potential effects of climate change were classified according to the risk they pose to the conservation of reindeer in Hardangervidda. Based on this assessment, no-regret strategies for biodiversity management under changing climate conditions could be identified.     

基于STIRPAT模型的武汉市环境影响驱动力分析

面对日益严重的环境问题,不仅要了解导致环境问题的各种驱动力,更应建立模型来精确描述环境影响与驱动力之间的关系。以武汉市为例,应用SPSS软件、以STIRPAT模型为依据,建立了描述环境影响与各驱动力之间精确关系的数个模型。模型计算结果表明:人口总量的增长和人类发展指数的上升是最主要的环境影响驱动力,城市化率、人均GDP等因素对环境也有影响;第三产业比重的上升有助于减小环境影响;基尼系数对环境几乎没有影响。以此为据,就如何改变这些影响因素,以减小环境影响提出了建议。除了人口总量等常规指标,还分析了人类发展指数、城市化率、基尼系数等指标,充实了环境影响驱动力指标体系,更客观反映了造成武汉市环境问题的原因。     

企业积极环境行为的层次及其政策设计

企业积极的环境行为是我国建设生态文明社会的重要着力点,使企业成为积极的环境行为主体是环境政策的重要目标.由于企业在环境治理中存在达到企业最优污染控制水平、社会最优污染控制水平及污染完全控制三个目标层次的选择,企业在不同的污染控制目标层次上,其行为是有差异的.本文针对企业不同的污染控制目标层次,提出企业积极环境行为存在循环经济、利益调配、非此即彼三个行为层次的选择.每一个行为层次和相关的目标层次相对应.不同层次的环境行为,其行为动力和政策要求是有差别的.本文指出,从循环经济层次到利益调配层次、再到非此即彼层次,企业积极环境行为的动力是逐步递减的,并针对这一特征分别设计了相关的环境经济政策,以促进企业积极的环境行为.     

Energy policy evaluation in practice: the case of production subsidies and DEN-B in the Netherlands

This paper describes how energy policy can be evaluated in practice. The goal is to make policy makers aware of how an evaluation can be based on scientific principles and to help economists appreciate how an evaluation can be performed if strong empirical evidence is lacking. We have built a basic evaluation framework and have applied this to a selection of Dutch energy policy instruments, namely production subsidies and their complementary non-financial instrument, DEN-B. Our evaluation criterion was effectiveness, defined as the extent to which policy instruments contribute to achieving policy goals. The evaluation was based on existing ex post evaluations complemented by interviews and other available data. We conclude that production subsidies and DEN-B were (partly) effective. Furthermore, the Dutch government increased effectiveness by reconsidering the design of production subsidies. We also formulate lessons for future policy evaluations and energy markets policies.     

长江三角洲地区耕地数量变化及保护对策——以吴江市为例

长江三角洲是我国经济最发达的地区之一 ,但在经济发展的同时 ,耕地资源却日益减少 ,这将严重影响到我国未来的粮食安全问题。吴江市位于长江三角洲中心位置 ,强大的经济基础和有利的区位条件使土地资源得以高速地开发利用 ,它是长江三角洲地区在耕地数量变化上一个较典型的地区 ,在土地整理方面也进行了成功的尝试。以吴江市为例 ,定性和定量地对耕地数量变化的人文驱动力进行分析 ,得出影响本地耕地数量变化的主要驱动因素为 :工业发展 ,固定资产投资规模扩大和农业产业结构调整。随着经济的发展 ,在这些驱动因素的影响下 ,必然会造成耕地数量的进一步减少。如何保护长江三角洲地区现有的有限的耕地资源 ,实现国家新的《土地管理法》中所要求的耕地总量动态平衡是本地区面临的一个严峻问题。在进行保护对策研究时 ,除了采用通常各地已采取的一些措施外 ,还做了进一步的思考 ,对本地区在实施耕地总量动态平衡过程中、农业产业结构调整存在的问题及本地区如何面对WTO的挑战提出建议     

Variability of Demographic Parameters in a Cyclic Population of the Bank Vole (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clethrionomys glareolus</Emphasis>)

Analysis of demographic parameters in a local bank vole population has shown that different relationships exist between them. The level of population abundance is directly correlated with the proportion of sexually mature juveniles, the length of the breeding season, and the age of overwintered individuals. The duration of the breeding season shows a delayed dependence on population abundance in the previous year. Variation in the average age of overwintered voles at different phases of the population cycle is characterized by a delayed dependence on the length of the breeding season in the previous year. Intrinsic factors generate the cyclic dynamics of parameters, while extrinsic factors can modify their dynamics.     

新生代农民工市民化问题探析——基于生活满意度视角

新生代农民工市民化是我国当前重大社会问题,了解新生代农民工市民化的需求与驱动力对于促进其主动市民化,构建和谐社会具有重要意义。本文认为农民工市民化的过程就是其在城镇就业、定居进而构建并不断提高生活满意程度的过程,因而生活满意度是新生代农民工市民化的实质驱动力。利用四川省成都市的实地调查数据与实证分析,基于296份新生代农民工的问卷调查,采用多元回归分析技术,探讨了经济收入、社会福利、社会地位及社会关系等对新生代农民工生活满意度的影响程度。分析结果表明:新生代农民工具有追求平等、发展与融入城市的强烈愿望,其生活满意程度取决于经济收入、社会福利、社会地位及社会关系等方面与城市人的横向比较结果。最后提出了就业环境公平化、社会福利均等化及市民化教育等对策建议,从而有利于促进其从经济、社会到心理的城市融入。     

Does social justice knowledge matter? Education for sustainable development and student attitudes

Recent conjecture on the potential primacy of physical environmental components in education for sustainable development (ESD) efforts serves to question the centrality of social justice education as a component of ESD. This research explores a sustainable development student’s basic knowledge of social justice conditions in their country of residence and its relationships to policy attitudes that should be of importance to ESD, including beliefs about the importance of corporate social responsibility, their endorsement of gross national product as an effective measure of progress, their overall assessment of the social fairness of current national social justice policy, and their endorsement of the goals of Occupy Wall Street. Results obtained using path-model hypothesis testing indicate that accuracy of knowledge of US standing on social justice issues is significantly related to these policy attitudes, providing support for social justice content in ESD endeavors to create students empowered for engagement in broader policy goals.     

国家高新区提升城市绿色创新效率的作用机制与效果识别--基于双重差分法的检验

绿色创新作为将环境保护与经济增长有机整合的发展战略,是当前解决城市发展困境的一剂良方,实践中,促进城市绿色创新水平提升成为政界和学界共同关注的话题。国家高新区是推动城市绿色创新水平提升,实现经济可持续发展的重要载体,然而关于国家高新区设立是否对城市绿色创新发展起作用仍需要进一步实证检验。利用中国285个地级市2003—2016年的面板数据,通过构建双向固定效应模型实现双重差分的目的,识别国家高新区建立影响区域绿色发展的作用机制,并评估高新区驱动城市绿色创新效率提升的净效应。研究结果表明:①国家高新区显著提高了城市绿色创新效率,这一结果在经过了反事实检验和多项稳健性检验后依然成立。②从理论上构建了高新区驱动绿色创新效率提升的影响机制,并通过实证检验甄别出了高新区促进城市绿色创新效率提升的创新驱动机制和结构驱动机制,而未通过集聚驱动机制,"形聚而神不聚"的现象仍广泛存在。③高新区驱动绿色创新效率的提升呈现明显的区域异质性,高新区对东部区域的绿色创新效率驱动效果明显,而对中西部区域效果不明显。④高新区驱动绿色创新效率提升还存在着城市等级的差异,一定程度上表现为"边际递减规律",相比于省会城市,副省会城市、较大的市和一般的市从高新区设立当中获得的政策效益更大。为了进一步提升高新区对城市绿色创新水平的驱动作用,文章据此从发挥集聚推动效应、增强自主创新能力、推动产业转型升级、因地制宜发展高新区等方面提出相关政策建议。     

Computing sustainable manufacturing index with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The growing industrial interest in adopting sustainability programmes has ushered in studies regarding sustainability indicators which have continually flourished in current literature. However, limited attention is given to the development of priority ranking, which is an important input for any adopting firm. This paper presents a hybrid multi-criteria approach in determining priority areas in sustainable manufacturing (SM). Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to address uncertainty in hierarchical decision-making, this paper determines SM priority strategies and eventually identifies even lower level strategies. The computed sustainable manufacturing index is presented at both the organizational and operational levels for a real case study of an industrial plastic manufacturing firm. This work provides a detailed and transparent hierarchical decision-making approach based on SM framework, the use of which could be valuable to practicing managers across industries in their pursuit of greater sustainability.     

农产品贸易中虚拟水流的驱动因素研究

经济发展中的虚拟水贸易实施受到多种要素的影响与制约。在回顾当前虚拟水研究进展的基础上,从自然、经济、社会、生态、技术和政策六个维度系统分析了以农产品为主要载体的虚拟水贸易实施的影响因素,进而收集32个典型的虚拟水贸易实施国家的横截面数据,利用多元逐步回归的方法,以虚拟水对外依赖程度为因变量,对部分影响因素进行了实证检验,并根据实证结果从资源优化配置与区域经济贡献的角度解释了国内学者研究得出的我国区际间农产品虚拟水的流动格局。研究表明:耕地资源及水资源的稀缺程度、区域经济发展水平、社会调适能力是虚拟水进口的正向驱动因素,而农业用水效率则是虚拟水进口的逆向驱动因素。     

Assessing the number of users who are excluded by domestic heating controls

Space heating accounts for almost 60% of the energy delivered to housing which in turn accounts for nearly 27% of the total UK's carbon emissions. This study was conducted to investigate the influence of heating control design on the degree of ‘user exclusion’. This was calculated using the Design Exclusion Calculator, developed by the Engineering Design Centre at the University of Cambridge. To elucidate the capability requirements of the system, a detailed hierarchical task analysis was produced, due to the complexity of the overall task. The Exclusion Calculation found that the current design placed excessive demands upon the capabilities of at least 9.5% of the UK population over 16 years old, particularly in terms of ‘vision’, ‘thinking’ and ‘dexterity’ requirements. This increased to 20.7% for users over 60 years old. The method does not account for the level of numeracy and literacy and so the true exclusion may be higher. Usability testing was conducted to help validate the results which indicated that 66% of users at a low-carbon housing development could not programme their controls as desired. Therefore, more detailed analysis of the cognitive demands placed upon the users is required to understand where problems within the programming process occur. Further research focusing on this cognitive interaction will work towards a solution that may allow users to behave easily in a more sustainable manner.     

湖北省降水分区研究

利用湖北省19个国家级气象台站1956~2009年逐月降水资料,采用分层聚类方法,基于聚类分析碎石图和聚类树状图来探索最适宜的分区方案,对湖北省全年、逐月降水进行了分区,并结合西太平洋副热带高压的移动探讨了分区的合理性,之后逐区进行了自相关分析和趋势分析。结果表明：湖北省全年降水分区为5区,1~12月降水分区分别为3、3、4、3、5、4、3、3、3、4、3、3个区。各月降水分区的差异性与西太平洋副热带高压的南北移动有密切关系,副高脊线在北纬18°以南、北纬20°以北,以及缓慢南退过程中,分区形式有较大差异。自相关分析以及趋势分析结果表明单一气象站不能代表所在分区的气候特点,而所在分区又不能代表湖北省的气候特点,基于不同目的,进行分区和综合,将有助于研究特定区域的气候特点     

Downscaling nonclimatic drivers for surface water vulnerabilities in the Elbe river basin

Aggregated consideration of both climate and socio-economic change in a coarse spatial resolution is a central feature for scenario development in global change research. Downscaling of the supposed aggregated changes is a necessary prerequisite for the assessments of global change at the regional scale. The present paper describes the method and results of an approach to develop and to apply scenarios of socio-economic change at a sub-national level, which are consistent with global change scenarios. National and regional models of economic and demographic development are used to regionalise drivers of socio-economic change. Scenario results are subsequently applied in order to analyse the impacts of socio-economic and climatic changes on water management issues in the Elbe river basin. Starting from global IPCC-Emissions Scenarios and taking up their key points, we formulate two scenarios for the German and Czech parts of the Elbe catchment areas. We present a system of demographic and economic models, designed to consistently project socio-economic developments at a national and sub-national level and, thus, to quantitatively illustrate our scenarios. The results show that in a scenario that assumes continued globalisation and emphasis on economic growth, export orientation will result in a comparatively high share of manufacturing. Growth spreads from centres to peripheral regions. Still, at the national level, the increase in population and employment will be modest and create little additional pressure, but water stress will be considerably stronger on a regional basis, namely in metropolitan areas such as Prague, Berlin and Hamburg. In a scenario where economic goals are balanced with ecologic and social ones, growth is weaker and the weight of the service sector increases more rapidly, thus easing the driving forces for overall water demand and pollution. However, as in this scenario regional metropolitan centres develop at the cost of peripheral regions, regional development is more selective and the driving forces for potential water stress will diverge spatially.     

深圳市土地利用变化驱动力系统分析

以深圳市土地利用变化的驱动力系统为例，用灰色关联方法确定影响土地利用变化的驱动因子并判别其最大驱动力，结果表明：深圳城市建设用地面积变化与外资利用额的关联系数最大，达到0.8491，其次为基础建设投资颧、第三产业产值、工业总产值及总人口数量；耕地、林地、荒地、水域面积变化则与城市化率的关联系数最大。以1991-1999年间的建设用地面积作为灰色系统特征数据序列，选取与其关联系数最大的五个驱动因子序列数据作为相关因素数据系列，建立CM（1，6）模型，结果表明：该模型的计算值和实际值的相对误差最大为11.11％，最小为-0.25％，平均相对误差也只有3.41％；检验结果表明，2000-2004年的模拟值与检验值的平均相对误差仅为3.74％，模拟精度较高，因而可以利用该模型预测深圳市建设用地的增长规模。     

Are neoliberalist behaviours reflective of bullying? New perspectives on influences on sustainability and global citizenship

The global sustainability crisis facing humanity is a cultural crisis with neoliberal culture, the primary driver. The necessity for global change away from neoliberal systems is well established with cultural systems pursued through sustainability seen as the most viable options to alleviate this global crisis. Whilst the goals of neoliberalism and sustainability are systemic and universal, those implementing them work at a specific level with individuals, groups and/or collectives. The literature fails, however, to provide specific examples of why, on a practical level, social change agents often struggle to implement sustainability goals. One of the primary reasons for these struggles can be found in an examination of human behaviour, for instance personality types, group dynamics and/or interpersonal or group communication skills (or lack thereof). This exploratory paper will investigate the existence of a nexus between neoliberalist and adult bullying behaviours to initiate discussion on the barriers this combination may have on social change for sustainability and global citizenship. This examination is warranted as the propensity in the neoliberalist system to support the use of bullying behaviours by its advocates is a complex, nuanced and underresearched topic. There are implications here for policy development, social and urban planning, education and governance for sustainability and global citizenship.     

A framework for identifying distinct multipollutant profiles in air pollution data

BackgroundThe importance of describing, understanding and regulating multi-pollutant mixtures has been highlighted by the US National Academy of Science and the Environmental Protection Agency. Furthering our understanding of the health effects associated with exposure to mixtures of pollutants will lead to the development of new multi-pollutant National Air Quality Standards.ObjectivesIntroduce a framework within which diagnostic methods that are based on our understanding of air pollution mixtures are used to validate the distinct air pollutant mixtures identified using cluster analysis.MethodsSix years of daily gaseous and particulate air pollution data collected in Boston, MA were classified solely on their concentration profiles. Classification was performed using k-means partitioning and hierarchical clustering. Diagnostic strategies were developed to identify the most optimal clustering.ResultsThe optimal solution used k-means analysis and contained five distinct groups of days. Pollutant concentrations and elemental ratios were computed in order to characterize the differences between clusters. Time-series regression confirmed that the groups differed in their chemical compositions. The mean values of meteorological parameters were estimated for each group and air mass origin between clusters was examined using back-trajectory analysis. This allowed us to link the distinct physico-chemical characteristics of each cluster to characteristic weather patterns and show that different clusters were associated with distinct air mass origins.ConclusionsThis analysis yielded a solution that was robust to outlier points and interpretable based on chemical, physical and meteorological characteristics. This novel method provides an exciting tool with which to identify and further investigate multi-pollutant mixtures and link them directly to health effects studies.     

基于地块尺度的耕地非农化驱动力空间异质性研究——以武汉市为例

土地用途管制和基本农田保护制度下,耕地非农化概率值和其驱动力的空间作用强度分布在土地资源配置和耕地保护方面有积极的指示性。基于武汉市2000~2011年耕地非农化地块的微观数据,通过比较分析Logistic回归模型和地理加权Logistic回归模型参数估计结果,验证了耕地非农化驱动力的空间异质性,并对异质性的空间分布规律和政策涵义做出总结分析。研究表明:1耕地间的空间依赖效应和建设用地对耕地的空间溢出效应在耕地非农化过程中具有显著影响力,且耕地非农化驱动力存在显著的空间异质性;2地理加权Logistic回归模型由于考虑到数据的空间非平稳状态所以比Logistic回归模型有更好的拟合效果;3耕地非农化驱动力的异质性在空间上呈现出一定规律,这些受到产业布局、经济和城市发展特点等的影响,根据不同驱动力空间异质性产生的原因进行差异化土地管理可以解决耕地保护和建设用地供给间的矛盾。研究结果能从地块尺度上反映出耕地非农化驱动因素的空间异质性,实现了驱动因素作用强度空间分布的可视化,并能为国土资源差异化管理提供理论和实践参考。