Spatio-temporal analysis of climatic variables in the western part of Bangladesh

Monitoring and detecting trends of climatic variables like rainfall and temperature are essential for agricultural developments in the context of climate change. The present study has detected trends in annual and cropping seasonal rainfall and temperature data for the period of 1961–2011 using Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s rho (SR) test and modified Mann–Kendall test that has been applied to the significant lag-1 serial correlated time series data, and slope has been estimated using Sen’s Slope estimator for twelve meteorological stations located in the western part of Bangladesh covering about 41 % of the country. Almost 71 % trends explored by MK test in annual rainfall are statistically insignificant, and SR test also complies it. The spatial distribution of rainfall trend shows insignificant positive trends in major part of the area. Significant positive trends both by MK test and by SR test at 95 % confidence levels are observed at rates of 8.56, 11.15 and 13.66 mm/year at Dinajpur, Rangpur and Khepupara stations, respectively, and the Kharif season rainfall of these stations also shows significant increasing trends except Dinajpur. On the other hand, significant decreasing trends in annual rainfall are found at Bhola (?11.67 mm/year) and Rajshahi (?5.951 mm/year) stations and decreasing trends in rainfall dominated the Pre-Kharif season over the area. But, 83.33 % of the stations show rising trends in annual mean temperature with significant positive trends (as observed by both MK test and SR test) at Rangpur, Bogra, Faridpur, Jessore and Bhola stations where the rate of changes vary from 0.013 °C/year at Faridpur to 0.08 °C/year at Bhola. Most of the trends in Rabi and Pre-Kharif seasons of mean temperatures are not statistically significant. However, all stations except Barisal show significant rising trends in temperature in Kharif season. To cope with this changing pattern of rainfall and temperature, effective adaptation strategies should be taken to keep up the agricultural production that is related to livelihood of the most people and to ensure the country’s food security.     

Assessing groundwater quality and its sustainability in Joypurhat district of Bangladesh using GIS and multivariate statistical approaches

Sustainable groundwater quality is a key global concern and has become a major issue of disquiets in most parts of the world including Bangladesh. Hence, the assessment of groundwater quality is an important study to ensure its sustainability for various uses. In this study, a combination of multivariate statistics, geographical information system (GIS) and geochemical approaches was employed to evaluate the groundwater quality and its sustainability in Joypurhat district of Bangladesh. The results showed that the groundwater samples are mainly Ca–Mg–HCO₃ type. Principal component analysis (PCA) results revealed that geogenic sources (rock weathering and cation exchange) followed by anthropogenic activities (domestic sewage and agro-chemicals) were the major factors governing the groundwater quality of the study area. Furthermore, the results of PCA are validated using the cluster analysis and correlation matrix analysis. Based on the groundwater quality index (GWQI), it is found that all the groundwater samples belong to excellent to good water quality domains for human consumption, although iron, fluoride and iodide contaminated to the groundwater, which do not pose any significant health hazard according to World Health Organization’s and Bangladesh’s guideline values. The results of irrigation water quality index including sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), permeability index and sodium percentage (Na %) suggested that most of the groundwater samples are good quality water for agricultural uses. The spatial distribution of the measured values of GWQI, SAR, Fe (iron), EC (electrical conductivity) and TH (total hardness) were spatially mapped using the GIS tool in the study area.     

Exploring development strategies of agricultural systems of Hill Tracts of Chittagong in Bangladesh

This study presents the determinants and development strategies of agricultural systems of the Hill Tracts of Chittagong in Bangladesh using multivariate analysis. A total of 18 selected variables transformed into 4 factors extracted by principal factor method explain 77.21 % of the total variability of the agricultural systems in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), and the agricultural systems in CHT are classified as extensive, semi-intensive, intensive and mixed using cluster analysis. Agricultural extension services, credit facilities and infrastructure such as distance to markets are identified as the main factors responsible for the changes in agricultural systems in CHT. Finally, it has been suggested to provide knowledge and skills to the farmers in CHT through agricultural extension using farmer field schools, microcredit using Grameen Bank approach and facilities such as improved transportation to the markets for better price and higher profit from the sale of the agricultural products to enable the farmers to move from shifting cultivation to environmentally and economically sound semi-intensive or intensive agricultural systems.     

Arsenic poisoning in groundwater: health risk and geochemical sources in Bangladesh

Of the 2508 water samples analyzed in 10 districts of Bangladesh, 51%, on an average, contained arsenic levels of 0.05 to 2.50 mg/l. 95% of nail, 96% of hair, and 94% of urine samples contained arsenic above the normal level. Approximately 3.58 million people out of a total of 17.92 million who are drinking water containing arsenic levels >0.20 mg/l are potentially exposed to high risk of health hazard. Eight thousand and five hundred arsenic patients are identified; they are suffering from various skin lesions, gangrene in leg, skin, lung, bladder, liver, and renal cancer. A big portion of the total population is highly vulnerable to various internal cancers. Lowest arsenic concentration in drinking water producing dermatological disease is found to be 0.103 mg/l. However, the exposure time to develop arsenicosis varies from case to case reflecting its dependence on arsenic level in drinking water and food, nutritional status, genetic variant of human being, and compounding factors. This study has determined the high intensity of fluorescent humic substances in drinking water containing elevated concentrations of arsenic and very low concentrations of heavy metals. The synergistic/antagonistic effect of fluorescent compounds present in drinking water may aggravate the toxicity of arsenic. Geochemical study suggests that arsenic may be released from both reductive dissolution of Fe and Mn (oxy)hydroxide and microbial oxidation of organic matter.     

Modeling of food security and ecological footprint of coastal zone of Bangladesh

This paper presents the present status of food security and ecological footprint, an indicator of environmental sustainability of the coastal zones of Bangladesh. To estimate the present status of the food security and ecological footprint of the coastal zone of Bangladesh, primary and secondary data were collected, and the present status of food security and environmental degradation (in terms of ecological footprint) were calculated. To estimate the household food security, primary data were also collected from all the households in a representative selected village. A quantitative method for computation of food security in grain equivalent based on economic returns (price) is developed, and a method of measuring sustainable development in terms of ecological footprint developed by Wackernagel is used to estimate the environmental sustainability (Wackernagel and Rees in Our ecological footprint: reducing human impact on the earth. New Society, Gabrioala, BC, 1996; Chambers et al. in Sharing nature’s interest-ecological footprint as an indicator of sustainability. Earthscan, London, 2000). Overall status of food security at upazila levels is good for all the upazilas except Shoronkhola, Shyamnager and Morrelgonj, and the best is the Kalapara upazila. But the status of food security at household levels is poor. Environmental status in the coastal zones is poor for all the upazilas except Kalapara and Galachipa. The worst is in the Mongla upazila. Environmental status has degraded mainly due to shrimp culture. This study suggests that control measures are needed for affected upazilas and any further expansion of the shrimp aquaculture to enhance the food security must take into account the environmental aspects of the locality under consideration.     

Modeling of Cs migration in soils using an 80-year soil archive: role of fertilizers and agricultural amendments

An 80-year soil archive, the 42-plot experimental design at the INRA in Versailles (France), is used here to study long-term contamination by ¹³⁷Cs atmospheric deposition and the fate of this radioisotope when associated with various agricultural practices: fallow land, KCl, NH₄(NO₃), superphosphate fertilizers, horse manure and lime amendments. The pertinence of a simple box model, where radiocaesium is supposed to move downward by convectional mechanisms, is checked using samples from control plots which had been neither amended, nor cultivated since 1928. This simple model presents the advantage of depending on only two parameters: α, a proportional factor allowing the historical atmospheric ¹³⁷Cs fluxes to be reconstructed locally, and k, an annual loss coefficient from the plow horizon. Another pseudo-unknown is however necessary to run the model: the shape of historical ¹³⁷Cs deposition, but this function can be easily computed by merging several curves previously established by other surveys. A loss of ∼1.5% per year from the plow horizon, combined with appropriate fluxes, provides good concordance between simulated and measured values. In the 0–25 cm horizon, the residence half time is found to be ∼18 yr (including both migration and radioactive decay). Migration rate constants are also calculated for some plots receiving continuous long-term agricultural treatments. Comparison with the control plots reveals significant influence of amendments on ¹³⁷Cs mobility in these soils developed from a unique genoform.     

基于WRF模式的云南省干旱发生风险的预测分析

云南省作为西部大开发的典型省份之一,有着独特的自然环境和资源禀赋,但同时全省地形复杂多变且处于气候带的脆弱区,气候变率相当大.本研究在分析云南省近30年的土地利用/土地覆被变化的前提下,采用中尺度天气研究与预报Weather Researchand Forecasting (WRF)模式系统,对云南省未来40年干旱发生风险进行了预测分析.研究首先对WRF模式系统适用性进行了验证,重点分析了气温和降水两个主要干旱影响因子的未来时空变异特征.然后根据WRF模式系统的输出结果,选取了系列气象干旱指标因子,并采用综合气象干旱指数计算方法在空间和时间上对干旱发生风险进行了预测.从研究结果来看,加强对现用森林资源的保护,执行长期有效的生态工程建设,可以很大程度上减缓未来干旱发生频率.同时云南省当前“城市上山”等政策实施中也应考虑到建设用地扩张的不可逆转性,避免城市盲目上山.研究指出,未来区域发展规划应该对人为土地利用进行长期且合理有效部署,减少政策的不确定性,合理的区域发展规划是应对干旱风险的有效举措.     

Assessing relative vulnerability to sea-level rise in the western part of the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam

The Mekong River Delta in Vietnam plays a crucial role for the region in terms of food security and socioeconomic development; however, it is one of the most low-lying and densely populated areas in the world. It is vulnerable to seawater incursion, flood risk, and shoreline change, exacerbated as a consequence of sea-level rise (SLR) related to climate change. This study examined the Kien Giang coast in the western part of the delta, comprising seven coastal districts (namely Ha Tien, Kien Luong, Hon Dat, Rach Gia, Chau Thanh, An Bien, and An Minh), the economy of which is important in terms of agriculture and aquaculture. The analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of multi-criteria decision making was integrated directly into geographic information systems (GIS) to derive a composite vulnerability index that indicated areas most likely to be vulnerable to SLR. The hierarchical structure comprised three key components: exposure (E), sensitivity (S), and adaptive capacity (A), at level 1. At the next level, 8 sub-components were mapped: seawater incursion, flood risk, shoreline change, population characteristics, land use/land cover, and socioeconomic, infrastructure, and technological capability, beyond which a further 22 variables (level 3) and 24 sub-variables (level 4) related to vulnerability were also mapped. Variables were assigned weights for incorporation into AHP pairwise comparisons after discussion with stakeholders. Maps were generated to visualise areas where the relative vulnerability was very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Societal data were generally only available at district level; however, several regional patterns emerged. Relatively high exposure to flooding and inundation, salinity, and moderate loss of mangroves occurred along the coastal fringe of each district. This western section of the delta, which is low-lying and remote from the distributaries that carry sediment to the coast, appears to be particularly vulnerable. The most sensitive areas tended to be ethnic households engaged in rice cultivation and with moderate population density. The least adaptable areas consisted of high numbers of poor households, with low income, and moderate densities of transport, irrigation and drainage systems. Most coastal districts were determined to be moderately to relatively highly vulnerable, with scattered hotspots along the coast.     

Issues in reverse supply chain,part III: classification and simple analysis

Due to growing environmental concern and increasing awareness among customers, reverse supply chain (RSC) has received much attention among researchers and practitioners. Therefore it is necessary to provide a comprehensive list of references for other researchers (or readers), who are interested in RSC research to help stimulate further interest. In this paper, we present classification schemes and a simple analysis for the reverse supply chain. This literature review was mainly based on journal articles but also included web based documents, conference materials, working papers, etc. A total of 543 articles were reviewed, of which 506 were published between 1967 and 2008 from 100 reputed international journals. Based on the literature review carried out and the nature of research observed in RSC, we have introduced two classification schemes to systematically organise the published articles. The first classification scheme is based on the content related issues on RSC and the second one is based on the solution methodology followed by the researchers. These classification schemes indicate that there is considerable research potential for RSC. The results also show that there is strong growth in RSC research.     

Spatial analysis of drought severity and magnitude using the standardized precipitation index and streamflow drought index over the Upper Indus Basin,Pakistan

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Droughts are one of the multidimensional extreme events that negatively influence agriculture, water availability and food security in the World. The...     

Association between esophageal cancer and drought in China by using Geographic Information System

The objective of this ecological study was to discover associations between selected climate variables and esophageal cancer (EC) mortality in China using a Geographic Information System (GIS). A digital distribution map of EC mortality in China was established in GIS, which was based on one-tenth of nationwide population cause-of-death surveys conducted in mainland China in 1990-1992. Selected climate variables such as 30-year annual average precipitation and evaporation data of the sample areas were extracted from the environmental databases by zonal statistics finished in Spatial Analyst module of ArcInfo 9.0. Drought Indexes were calculated by using the precipitation and evaporation data and a digital distribution map of them was created to compare with the distribution of EC mortality. Correlation and regression analyses were applied to evaluate associations between the EC mortality rates defined at the sample areas and selected climate variables from the raster datasets. The results of the digital GIS maps of EC mortality and Drought Index show that the high EC mortality mostly occurred in areas with high Drought Index. Correlation and regression analyses also show weak negative correlation between precipitation and EC mortality (p<0.001), and weak positive correlation between Drought Index and EC mortality (p<0.001). This study presented a unique model for the link of cancer and climate using a GIS. The study suggests that drought plays a role in the occurrence and development of EC in China, however, other environmental, biological and genetic factors should not be ignored. There is need for further studies using multiple factors and more accurate and detailed environmental and health data.     

Review of Russian language studies on radionuclide behaviour in agricultural animals: part 1. Gut absorption

An extensive programme of experiments was conducted in the former USSR on transfer of radionuclides to a wide range of different agricultural animals. Only a few of these studies were made available in the English language literature or taken into account in international reviews of gastrointestinal uptake. The paper gives extended information on Russian research on radionuclide absorption in the gut of farm animals performed in controlled field and laboratory experiments from the 1960s to the current time. The data presented in the paper, together with English language values, will be used to provide recommended values of absorption specifically for farm animals within the revision of the IAEA Handbook of Parameter Values IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency, 1994. Handbook of Parameter Values for the Prediction of Radionuclide Transfer in Temperate Environments, IAEA technical reports series No. 364. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna].     

Review of Russian-language studies on radionuclide behaviour in agricultural animals: part 4. Transfer to poultry

Data on radionuclide transfer to domestic chickens and ducks obtained from research performed in the former Soviet Union were reviewed to provide transfer coefficient values (Ff) to poultry and edible egg contents. The majority of the data are from experiments with ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs, reflecting the importance of these radionuclides after global fallout and major radiation accidents. Data for ³H, ⁵⁴Mn, ⁵⁹Fe, ⁶⁰Co, ²²Na ⁶⁵Zn, ¹³¹I and U are also given. The values derived have been compared with those in the current IAEA Handbook of parameter values for the prediction of radionuclide transfer in temperate environments (TRS 364) and the recent revision which incorporates the values from this paper. The Russian-language data give improved estimates for many radionuclides and the revised handbook is now based on the better quality data given for chronic administration.     

Projected twenty-first-century changes in the Central American mid-summer drought using statistically downscaled climate projections

Regional Environmental Change - In addition to periodic long-term drought, much of Central America experiences a rainy season with two peaks separated by a dry period of weeks to over a month in...     

Agroforestry environment,potentiality and risk in India: a remote sensing and GIS understanding

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The study utilized the tree covers per cent, agroforestry suitability, present and future (2050) climate, agriculture vulnerability (2050), percentage...     

Regional radiation risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling and GIS analysis

The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. Two approaches were tested: (1) probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation and (2) deterministic approach (case studies) for most possible or worst-case scenarios of modelled transport and deposition of radionuclides. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola nuclear power plant (NPP) because of (a) relatively high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and (b) rather high probability of an airflow trajectory there and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. The case scenarios demonstrate that population in many counties in each country, both near and far away from a nuclear site, might be subject to high risk depending on the meteorological situation.     

Review of Russian language studies on radionuclide behaviour in agricultural animals: part 2. Transfer to milk

An overview of original information available from Russian language papers on radionuclide transfer to milk is provided. Most of the data presented have not been taken into account in international reviews. The transfer coefficient (F(m)) values for radioactive isotopes of strontium, caesium and iodine are in good agreement with those previously published. The Russian language data, often based on experiments with many animals, constitute a considerable increase to the available data for many less well-studied radionuclides. In some instances, the Russian language data suggest changes in recommended values (e.g. Zr and Ru). The information presented here substantially increases the amount of available data on radionuclide transfer to milk and will be included in the current revision of the IAEA TRS Handbook of parameter values for radionuclide transfer.     

Mapping of bioclimatic comfort for potential planning using GIS in Aydin

People are relaxed (satisfied or well-off) in what is described as comfortable climatic conditions. In such conditions, a person’s energy balance is not disturbed because of stresses from extreme heat or cold. Bioclimatic structure has been well researched and should be a consideration in the planning process for arranging comfortable spaces. It represents the understanding that energy balance is one of the basic elements of a sustainable landscape design. The goals of this study have been to create ideal places for human thermal comfort and to advance objectives focused on the importance of sustainable and ecological landscape planning and design work, along with their accompanying economic benefits. In this study, which focuses on the climate of the Province of Aydin, the most suitable areas for bioclimatic comfort have been identified. The climate values for the Aydin Province have been taken from a total of 22 meteorological stations. Stations at altitudes ranging from 11 to 871 m were used to note the climate changes that occurred. The average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed from each station, including data collected using Geographic Information System (GIS) software, were transferred. GIS maps were then created from the imported data, and areas of optimal comfort around the city of Aydin were determined. The results show the range that is suitable for a bioclimatic comfort zone in Aydin. The bioclimatic comfort range was determined to be roughly 17 °C for Aydin, and the city of Aydin demonstrated a comfort range between 14 and 19 °C. As a result, the city of Aydin was shown to be a suitable area for bioclimatic comfort.