山东省莱州湾地区海水入侵灾害及其综合防治

本文在分析山东省莱州湾地区海水入侵灾害发生的背景、条件、原因及未来发展趋势的基础上，结合当地防治海水入侵灾害的经验。提出了综合防治海水入侵灾害的措施。向莱州湾地区调黄河水是防治海水入侵的关键；建设防潮堤、防潮闸可以防止海水地表入侵；充分发挥政府的职能是防治海水入侵灾害的基本保证。文中还提出了综合防治海水入侵的其它措施。     

莱州湾南岸平原古河道及其与海（咸）水入侵关系研究

海（咸）水入侵作为莱州湾南岸平原的一种新的环境灾害,其发生、发展与该区广泛分布的古河道密切相关。本文研究了古河道的分布规律、沉积特征及分期,并重点探讨了其与海（咸）水入侵的密切关系。古河道是该区海（咸）水入侵的主要通道,古河道中海（咸）水入侵速度快、方式多、周期性变化明显,是灾情是严重、入侵变化最复杂的地貌单元;古河道又是防治海（咸）水入侵的天然工程,古河道砂层径流条件好,只要采取措施提高其地下淡     

山东省海水入侵灾害危险性评价的GIS方案设计

以山东省为例，利用GIS技术建立了一套海水入侵灾害危险性评价信息系统。通过对多因素的综合分析，获取了各评判单元海水入侵灾害综合危险性指数，求得了各地海水入侵的平均距离，从而实现了山东省海水入侵灾害危险性区划，并能以地图或数据的形式快捷的显示处理结果。     

山东省莱州湾地区海水入侵对社会与经济的影响

海水入侵是近代出现在我国沿海的一种灾害，它的发生与发展已严重影响了沿海地区的社会与经济的持续稳定发展。表现在农业水土资源遭受破坏，粮食大幅度减产；工业用水紧张，设备锈蚀严重，成本显著升高；地方病增加，人类生存受到威胁；社会不安定因素增加。本文以莱州湾地区为例分析了这种影响     

应用人工神经网络方法对海水入侵危害程度划区分类

本文将目前信息处理系统中最有效的人工神经网络方法,应用于海水入侵地区,对其危害程度进行划区分类,提出了解题原理,步骤和计算方法,丰富了对海水入侵现象的研究手段。在莱州市滨海地区的计算表明,该方法是可行的。     

温带风暴潮灾害链的识别与区分--以莱州湾风暴潮为例

我国温带风暴潮灾害主要集中在渤海、黄海沿岸,其中莱州湾沿岸是频繁发生的重灾区。以识别莱州湾沿岸发生的温带风暴潮灾害链的组成为研究目标,通过2次典型灾害事件分析了温带风暴潮灾害的成因、发生及其演化规律等问题,进而识别了温带风暴潮灾害链发生过程中的灾害类别及相应致灾因子,根据致灾过程提出了5种灾害链条,最后区分了不同行业灾害损失中主要致灾因子的作用。研究结果可对温带风暴潮灾害链的预警及减灾工作提供决策支持。     

泉州地区海水入侵现状及防治措施

针对泉州地区地下水的超采状况及海水入侵的程度,以泉州地区良好的气候条件和地理位置为依据,提出了该地区海水入侵灾害的防治措施,即将含水层存储与恢复技术(ASR)与地表蓄水体相结合。分析得出,采用该措施可以将泉州地区丰水期降水及其它可用水源通过人工补给存储在含水层中,并在枯水季节抽取使用。这样,既能减缓枯水季节的供水压力,又可以提高地下水水位,防止地下漏斗面积的不断扩大,从而达到防治海水入侵的效果。所提供措施可为该地区防治海水入侵灾害提供参考。     

我国沿海地带的海水入侵

本文阐述了海水入侵灾害的发生机理、危害和我国目前的概况,并指出了海水入侵的发生规律和发展趋势。同时就此问题提出了相应的整治措施,以避免灾害面的进一步扩大。     

中国沿海海水入侵机制和变化规律的初步研究

海水入侵是沿海地带不可忽视的自然灾害之一,我国沿海大致以长江口为界,长江口以南沿海主要以海水入侵河口造成的危害为主,长江口以北沿海则以海水入侵地下含水层危害较大.本文综合分析了这两类海水入侵灾害的现状、成灾原因、时空变化规律以及今后的变化趋势,并提出减灾对策与建议.     

胶东半岛西部沿海地区海水入侵机理与对策研究

胶东半岛西部沿海平原的海水入侵是我国目前这一灾害类型中最典型最严重的事件，已被列入我国“国际减灾十年”计划进行研究和防治。本文分析了海水入侵灾害的现状、危害、成因和分布规律，提出了防治途径与措施。     

中国电线积冰灾害危险性评估和区划

中国有关电线积冰方面的观测资料太少,难以直接用于灾害评估。为了解决这个问题,利用1960-2009年现有的电线积冰和常规气象资料,在分析观测冰重和常规气象指标相关性的基础上,逐步筛选出影响冰重的主要气象指标,构建了电线积冰灾害危险性评估的常规气象指标体系,再利用常规气象资料采用多元线性回归方法估算积冰量,对中国电线积冰灾害危险性进行了评估和区划。结果表明:(1)在综合考虑相关性和空间代表性的基础上,影响雨凇和混合凇冰重的主要气象指标为过程平均风速、积冰时间、过程累计降水量;影响雾凇的为过程平均风速、过程浓雾时间。(2)中国大部分地区电线积冰灾害危险性较低,中高危险区面积较小,分布特征表现出明显的南北差异。中高危险区呈带状分布于南方地区的长江中下游山地丘陵区,北方地区则呈点状分布,具体位置与山地丘陵、江河湖泊均有着密切的关系。     

Revisiting community-based disaster risk management

This paper examines whether the hypothesis presented in Ocho Rios in 1984 is still valid and relevant. The first part of the paper revisits the central tenets of the 1984 paper. The second part of the paper gives a broad overview of how community-based approaches have been taken up and evolved over the last quarter-century. The third part of the paper examines, with the benefit of hindsight, to what extent the approaches advocated in Ocho Rios are still valid. Finally, the paper examines the role of community-based and local-level approaches looking into the future. The paper is written as a personal reflection, without any pretence to academic rigour and also without systematically surveying the thousands of ongoing community-based or local-level initiatives in disaster risk management, referred to in this paper as community-based disaster risk management and local-level disaster risk management, respectively.     

The future of disaster risk management

The present perspective summarizes and projects the results of a two-day workshop held in 2013 with the presence of 21 known disaster risk specialists from academia and practice. Faced with the disconnect between ever-increasing and even-accelerating disaster losses and the declared progress in disaster risk management (DRM) practice over the last eight years, the document attempts to explain the current situation and project future needs in order to increase the saliency and effect of DRM. A review of current conceptual problems and their impact on knowledge and action, of the current role of DRM in society, of governance aspects and of the notion of transformative development and its relationship to DRM is provided. The critique of current practice and understanding of disaster risk then leads to an attempt to identify key needs for the future and changes that must be introduced in order for DRM to become more mainstream and effective. Among the more central concerns, the document points to the way in which disasters are still many times seen as exogenous happenings as opposed to social constructions, product of skewed development practices. This then is reflected in much governance practice and action that are flawed. The difficulty in moving from a reactive and corrective DRM practice to a more prospective, risk avoidance practice is also highlighted.     

中国自然灾害备灾能力评价与地域划分

阐述了自然灾害发生之前,备灾响应能力评价的指标选择、指标模型的建立和地域划分;厘定了救灾物资的分类体系;基于救灾物资救助等级的划分程序,提出了国家主要灾种和救灾物资的救助评价等级及其地域划分.救灾物资的救助地域划分,不仅可以为国家不同自然灾害救灾物资代储类型和数量的地域匹配提供依据,而且可以为灾害救助区划服务,特别是为灾中应急和灾后恢复提供物资保障,从而达到有效减灾的目的.     

中国自然灾害灾后响应能力评价与地域差异

灾后恢复是减灾管理的重要环节。从灾害系统角度界定了恢复性的概念；构建了由地均粮食产量、单位面积上拥有的病床床位数、人均城乡居民储蓄存款余额、地均财政收入、人均财政收入、基本建设投资和综合通行能力等指标组成的评价指标体系；提出了灾后恢复能力指数模型；对全国县域单元进行了灾后恢复能力评价。结果表明：我国灾后恢复能力指数Z值呈现“东高西低”的地域差异；贫困县域Z值普遍偏低，西藏、新疆西部、西南云贵地区、北方农牧交错带应是当前进行恢复能力建设的重点区域；城市Z值普遍较高，其地域差异与城市经济水平相对应。研究结果可为自然灾害救助区划提供依据，为减灾县域管理决策提供支持。     

Capacity development for participatory disaster risk assessment

In this paper a large-scale community-based disaster risk-assessment project, undertaken in the Dr Kenneth Kaunda District Municipality in the North-West Province of South Africa, is evaluated. In contrast to other disaster risk management consultancy projects in South Africa, this project included a significant skills transfer component to the at-risk communities and local government officials. In this evaluation, the authors draw on their own experiences in implementing this and similar projects, a review of the project management documents is undertaken, and a focus group interview with facilitators involved in the project is used as a primary source. The discussion is further contextualised in terms of community-based disaster risk assessment theory and the existing literature on disaster risk assessment in South Africa. Logistical and data quality issues as well as staff turnover were found to be concerns during the project. From the findings, it is argued that the common practice of outsourcing disaster risk-management projects is not conducive to effective disaster risk management. Local government entities should take responsibility for disaster risk assessment as a continual activity. This is in contrast to the view currently manifesting in South Africa as a set of bureaucratic actions undertaken by consultants to achieve ‘legislative compliance’ for municipalities.     

福建台风灾害风险分布的初步估计

建议了一个较简单的台风灾害风险评价模型，对福建台风灾害危险性、脆弱性和风险进行评价，应用Mapinfo7．0软件，编制了福建台风灾害风险分布图。结果表明：致灾因子危险性高值区主要分布在东部沿海，这一地区应该采取预留高风险区，与“台风灾害风险”共存的对策，提高台风预报准确性；承灾体脆弱性高值区集中分布在东部沿海的厦门、泉州、福州、莆田和漳州等地，还零散分布在三明、龙岩等地级市，这些地区应该采取生态安全条件下的土地利用结构调整、提高防御台风灾害能力和人口素质等对策，以降低承灾体脆弱性；风险高值区位于闽南沿海的漳州、长泰、龙海和厦门市，闽中的泉州东南沿海、莆田市和福州东南沿海，这些地区应该成为福建省防御台风灾害的重点区域。     

A policymaking perspective on disaster risk reduction in Mozambique

Academics and practitioners alike emphasise that public policy plays a key role to support efforts to reduce disaster risks and to buffer the impacts of natural hazards when they occur. This involves developing public policies to promote disaster risk reduction (DRR). However, the public policy dimension has only recently begun to receive attention in empirical research on DRR. Processes of policy change are discussed, yet less often studied, and more empirical research is needed to advance the understanding of the conditions for DRR policy change. Combining insights from adaptation research and public policy theory, this study investigates the long-term development of DRR policy in Mozambique as perceived by multiple stakeholders. The study identifies barriers and enabling factors influencing the DRR policy process over time. Using data from 37 semi-structured interviews, the study finds six main enabling factors supporting DRR policy change. Among the most important enabling factors are past disasters and broad stakeholder involvement. The study also unveils several barriers to DRR policy change, including resource insufficiency and lack of coordination among stakeholders. The study concludes with suggestions for integrating DRR and policy process research and lessons for policymaking in support of DRR over time.     

基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价

在湖北省1：25万数字地形图的基础上,利用ARC／INFO地理信息系统平台强大的空间分析和叠加功能,对湖北省洪水灾害危险性进行了初步评价,首先对构洪水灾害危险性的4个因子－－降水,地形,河网（包括河流、湖泊,水库）以及历史上洪灾发生的频次等进行了分析和数字化,得出了各因子对洪水灾害影响程度的栅格图层,其次,对这些图层进行空间叠加,得到了湖北省洪涝灾害危险性评价图,结果显示,湖北省东部及中部地区的洪水危险性普遍高于其他地区,特别是枝江以下的长江沿线以及钟祥以下的汉江中下游一线两岸地区,危险性最高,这与这些地区丰富的降水,低平的地势是密切相关的;而鄂西南和鄂东南部虽然降水也比较丰富,但由于该区地势高,因此洪水危险性相对于中部来说总体上要低一些,鄂西北地区尤其是神农架地区降水量少,地势最高,因而危险性最低。这个结果与河北省的实际情况是符合的。