A note on density dependence in population models

One of the most studied phenomena in ecology is density dependent regulation. The model most frequently used to study this behaviour is the theta-logistic model. However, disagreement has developed within the ecology community pertaining to the interpretation of this model’s parameters, and thus as to appropriate values for the parameters to assume. In particular, the parameter θ$\theta$ has been allowed to take negative values, resulting in the ‘growth rate parameter’ estimated to be negative for species which are extant and exhibit no signs of becoming extinct in the short-term. Here we explain this phenomenon by formulating the theta-logistic model in the manner in which the original logistic model was formulated by Verhulst (1838), in doing so providing a simple interpretation of model parameters and thus restrictions on values the parameters may assume. We conclude that θ$\theta$ should (almost always) be restricted to values greater than −1$-1$. This has implications for studies assessing the form of density dependence from data. Additionally, another model appearing in the literature is presented which provides a more flexible model of density dependence at the expense of only one additional parameter.     

Including model uncertainty in estimating variances in multiple capture studies

We present bootstrap-based methods which incorporate model uncertainty in estimating variances in multiple capture studies. Each of our three methods has a specific set of properties, and we discuss when each method should be used. Our first method can be used in any multiple capture setting, but it gives an estimate of the variance conditional on the number of observed animals. Our other two methods yield estimates of the unconditional variance; they require good estimates of part or all of the specific probability model, respectively. Smoothed estimated cell probabilities are utilized by the latter method. We contrast the three methods on a real-life data set, and then conduct simulations for a simple setting. Finally, we detail the use of our methodology for specific settings and discuss adaptations for tag-return studies.     

农用地土壤重金属生态安全阈值确定方法的研究进展

农用地土壤重金属生态安全阈值作为农用地土壤环境质量基准制定的重要依据,近年来随着多学科的共同发展,农用地土壤重金属生态安全阈值的确定方法变得越来越完善,但目前对其的研究综述却鲜见报道。因此,文章综述了农用地土壤重金属生态安全阈值的确定方法,详细阐述了点模型、概率模型以及经验模型中的代表方法在确定农用地土壤重金属生态安全阈值方面的概念、原理、发展及应用,并深入探讨了各方法的适用情况和优缺点,系统分析了各方法在确定农用地土壤重金属生态安全阈值时的不确定性及影响因素,最后在前人的研究基础上提出了今后的主要发展方向,以期为我国农用地土壤环境质量标准的完善与细化及农用地土壤其他污染物生态安全阈值的确定提供参考依据。     

Decontamination efficiency and root structure change in the plant-intercropping model in vertical-flow constructed wetlands

Subtropical climatic conditions can contribute to the death of the aerial parts of constructed wetland plants in winter. This presents a barrier to the widespread application of constructed wetland and is an issue that urgently needs to be solved. Three contrasting experi- ments, the plant-intercropping model （A）, the warm- seasonal plant model （B）, and the non-plant model （C）, were studied in terms of their efficiency in removing pollutants, and the change in root structure of plants in the plant-intercropping model within the vertical-flow con- structed wetlands. The results indicate that model A was able to solve the aforementioned problem. Overall, average removal rates of three pollutants （CODcr, total nitrogen （TN） and total phosphorous （TP）） using model A were significantly higher than those obtained using models B and C （P 〈 0.01）. Moreover, no significant differences in removal rates of the three pollutants were detected between A and B during the higher temperature part of the year （P〉 0.05）. Conversely, removal rates of the three pollutants were found to be significantly higher using model A than those observed using model B during the lower temperature part of the year （P 〈 0.01）. Furthermore, the morphologies and internal structures of plant roots further demonstrate that numerous white roots, whose distribution in soil was generally shallow, extend further under model A. The roots of these aquatic plants have an aerenchyma structure composed of parenchyma cells, therefore, roots of the cold-seasonal plants with major growth advantages used in A were capable of creating a more favorable vertical-flow constructed wetlands media- microenvironment. In conclusion, the plant-intercropping model （A） is more suitable for use in the cold environment experienced by constructed wetland during winter.     

天津市空气污染预报方法

文章论述了空气污染预报几种理论和方法,特别详细介绍了天津市空气质量预报方法及其应用效果。     

持久性有机污染物环境多介质空间分异模型研究进展

环境多介质空间分异模型能够对持久性有机污染物(POPs)在环境多个介质中空间尺度上的迁移转化和分配过程进行准确、细致和接近真实的描述,是进行POPs的环境多介质归趋模拟和环境风险评价的重要工具.将环境多介质空间分异模型分为环境多介质质量平衡空间区划模型和大气化学传输模型,对目前几种常用的环境多介质空间分异模型GLOBO...     

外来入侵假臭草在中国分布区的预测

假臭草原产南美洲,上世纪80年代首次记载传入中国,是潜在的恶性杂草.为提供其在中国分布区的预测资料,采用397个采集数据和已有的146个分布点数据,利用生态位模型(GARP)和Domain模型对分布区进行预测分析,并通过AUC与MaxKappa进行模型评价.结果显示:近十年,假臭草入侵记录增多,入侵扩散加剧;太阳辐射、水汽压、极端高温、霜日频率和水流方向对假臭草的分布限制较小,雨日频率、坡向、坡度、海拔、年降水、年均温、地形指数和极端低温等8个环境因子对其分布影响显著;入侵的主要植被类型是农田、灌木或草类覆盖嵌合区,常绿、落叶灌木地带,栽培植被及相关联地带等.模型评价表明两种模型预测能力为较好及以上,预测结果显示:假臭草在西藏(除东南小块区域)、新疆、青海、内蒙古、宁夏,陕西和山西北部地区,黑龙江、吉林、辽宁(除辽东半岛小块区域)是不宜生长区;最易入侵广东、广西、海南等地区,其中华中部分省份、华北平原为适生区,还未见有假臭草入侵的报道,相关部门应引起重视,严防入侵.     

Estimation methods for nonlinear state-space models in ecology

The use of nonlinear state-space models for analyzing ecological systems is increasing. A wide range of estimation methods for such models are available to ecologists, however it is not always clear, which is the appropriate method to choose. To this end, three approaches to estimation in the theta logistic model for population dynamics were benchmarked by Wang (2007). Similarly, we examine and compare the estimation performance of three alternative methods using simulated data. The first approach is to partition the state-space into a finite number of states and formulate the problem as a hidden Markov model (HMM). The second method uses the mixed effects modeling and fast numerical integration framework of the AD Model Builder (ADMB) open-source software. The third alternative is to use the popular Bayesian framework of BUGS. The study showed that state and parameter estimation performance for all three methods was largely identical, however with BUGS providing overall wider credible intervals for parameters than HMM and ADMB confidence intervals.     

土地资源对珠三角地区人口增长的约束分析

改革开放以来，随着经济高速发展，大量外来人口涌入珠三角地区。1979─2012年间，珠三角地区的常住人口从1797.42万人增至5681.70万人。大规模的人口增长使得珠三角地区的资源供给压力增大，特别是土地资源。2010年珠三角地区已开发的建设用地面积为8867 km2，其中深圳、东莞等城市的建设用地规模已经接近其土地资源的适宜开发上限，土地资源对人口增长的约束作用也日趋显著。为了评判珠三角地区土地资源压力对人口增长的影响，利用Malthus模型和Logistic模型分别对该地区9个城市的人口变化进行拟合，结果表明，2组模型对2000年前各城市的人口变化均有较高的拟合精度且拟合结果与实际情况较为相近，主要是由于该地区早期发展阶段的资源压力对人口增长的约束作用较小。2000年以后不同城市的Logistic模型与Malthus模型对人口变化预测呈现出不同的趋势，主要与各城市的土地资源压力密切相关。根据2组模型模拟结果的差异和土地资源的压力，将9个城市分为3组。其中深圳、东莞为第一组，这2个城市的人口增速最快、土地资源压力最大，相应的Malthus模型的估计值分别在2003年、2005年超过了实际人口，且其后估计值与实际值的差距逐渐增大。依据Malthus模型2020年深圳、东莞的人口预测值分别为6469.58万人、2386.81万人，这大大超过了这2个城市的资源环境承载极限。这一结果说明在深圳、东莞的人口高速增长已经不可持续，Malthus模型已不能反映其未来人口的变化趋势。第二组包括广州、佛山、珠海和中山4个城市。这组城市的人口增速相对缓慢，Malthus模型的估计值与实际人口较为接近，但2010年以来这4个城市人口的增长呈放缓趋势，Malthus模型估计值逐渐偏大。第三组城市包括人口增速最慢的江门、惠州和肇庆3个城市。这组城市的人口?     

GWLF模型的原理、结构及应用

GWLF(Generalized Watershed Loading Function)模型是一个半分布式、半经验式的流域负荷模型。它能够利用GIS及RS提供的空间数据,在中型尺度流域的范围内进行非点源污染负荷估算,模型比较适合于数据量少,参数相对缺乏的地区。重点介绍了GWLF模型的污染物负荷估算的原理,同时将GWLF模型应用于天津市于桥水库流域,利用沙河流域1999年水量、水质数据进行校准,初步估算出于桥水库上游流域的非点源负荷。     

Modeling the brown bear population in Slovenia: A tool in the conservation management of a threatened species

In this paper, we address three aspects of the brown bear population in Slovenia: its size (and its evolution over time), its spatial expansion out of the core area, and its potential habitat based on natural habitat suitability. Data collected through measurement/observation of the bear population and from the literature are used. A model is developed for each aspect. The results are estimates of population size, a picture of the spatial expansion of the population and maps of its optimal and maximal potential habitat (based on natural suitability). Overall, the brown bear population has been increasing since the establishment of a core protective area and has been expanding outside this area. The habitat suitability maps show that there is room for further expansion. Based on habitat suitability and bear population density, as well as human activity and current damage reports, we recommend that the Alps should be temporarily kept free of the bears, until the necessary mitigation measures regarding human–bear conflicts are carried out. On the other hand it is of crucial importance to adapt human activities and improve bear management in the optimal habitat, with which the goals of successful conservation of the species might be achieved.     

Increasing accuracy of dispersal kernels in grid-based population models

Dispersal kernels in grid-based population models specify the proportion, distance and direction of movements within the model landscape. Spatial errors in dispersal kernels can have large compounding effects on model accuracy. Circular Gaussian and Laplacian dispersal kernels at a range of spatial resolutions were investigated, and methods for minimizing errors caused by the discretizing process were explored. Kernels of progressively smaller sizes relative to the landscape grid size were calculated using cell-integration and cell-center methods. These kernels were convolved repeatedly, and the final distribution was compared with a reference analytical solution. For large Gaussian kernels (σ > 10 cells), the total kernel error was <10⁻¹¹ compared to analytical results. Using an invasion model that tracked the time a population took to reach a defined goal, the discrete model results were comparable to the analytical reference. With Gaussian kernels that had σ ≤ 0.12 using the cell integration method, or σ ≤ 0.22 using the cell center method, the kernel error was greater than 10%, which resulted in invasion times that were orders of magnitude different than theoretical results. A goal-seeking routine was developed to adjust the kernels to minimize overall error. With this, corrections for small kernels were found that decreased overall kernel error to <10⁻¹¹ and invasion time error to <5%.     

Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications

• US tin use decreases as the GDP value added by manufacturing sector increases. • Global and China’s tin use increases as the GDP added by manufacturing increases. • A sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well. • US tin use patterns is not due to the finite tin reserves or resources. • Policies, substitutions, etc. play key roles in the changing tin use patterns. Tin is of key importance to daily life and national security; it is considered an essential industrial metal. The United States (US) is the world’s largest economy and consumer of natural resources. Therefore, the analysis of historical tin use in the US is helpful for understanding future tin use trends in the world as a whole and in developing countries. Time series analysis, regression analysis with GDP or GDP/capita, and historical data fitted with logistic and Gompertz models are employed in this study. Historical tin use in the US shows three stages—increase-constant-decrease, as GDP per capita has increased. Tin use in the US is negatively correlated with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector, while the use of tin worldwide and in China continues to increase along with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector. Although a sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well, that use is not directly related to the limited tin reserves or resources. Rather, policies, economic restructuring, substitutions, new end-use markets, etc. have played key roles in the changing tin use patterns. This work contributes to understanding future tin use at both the global and national levels: tin use will continue to increase with GDP at the global level, but use patterns of tin at the national level can be changed through human intervention.     

土壤中反应性溶质保持模拟模型概述

水溶性污染物和有机污染物在非饱和带的运动规律是当前土壤物理学研究的前沿领域．模拟反应性溶质的运移模型，必须包含溶质和土壤基质之间的保持和释放反应．本文简要综述土壤对溶质保持反应的平衡模型、动力学模型和多反应模型的主要特点．     

Use of best linear unbiased prediction for hot spot identification in two-way compositing

Compositing of individual samples is a cost-effective method for estimating a population mean, but at the expense of losing information about the individual sample values. The largest of these sample values (hotspot) is sometimes of particular interest. Sweep-out methods attempt to identify the hotspot and its value by quantifying a (hopefully, small) subset of individual values as well as the usual quantification of the composites. Sweep-out design is concerned with the sequential selection of individual samples for quantification on the basis of all earlier quantifications (both composite and individual). The design-goal is for the number of individual quantifications to be small (ideally, minimal). Previous sweep-out designs have applied to traditional (i.e., disjoint) compositing. This paper describes a sweep-out design suitable for two-way compositing. That is, the individual samples are arranged in a rectangular array and a composite is formed from each row and also from each column. At each step, the design employs all available measurements (composite and individual) to form the best linear unbiased predictions for the currently unquantified cells. The cell corresponding to the largest predicted value is chosen next for individual measurement. The procedure terminates when the hotspot has been identified with certainty.     

活性污泥系统处理苯酚废水的生物强化效果

通过性能测定观察到,菌株Candidasp.对苯酚具有较强的降解能力,因此选取来作为生物强化试验的模式菌株.通过不同接种量、不同苯酚初始浓度的比较实验,发现随着菌体加入量的增加,活性污泥系统获得的生物强化效果逐渐增强,随着初始底物浓度的增加,活性污泥系统的生物强化效果逐渐减弱,同时通过20d的长期实验发现,强化效果没有随时间减弱,而且比单独活性污泥系统经过20d驯化所得的降解能力高60%.图4参7     

土壤和地下水中污染物迁移模型研究进展

国内外学者已建立了多种模型来描述污染物在土壤和地下水中的环境行为。要选择一个合适的模型在实际中成功地应用,或建立一个新的模型,必须掌握和了解污染物迁移模型的研究现状。文章评述了现有的模型,并对模型的结构作了一定的阐述。     

Factors affecting information transfer from knowledgeable to naive individuals in groups

There is evidence that individuals in animal groups benefit from the presence of knowledgeable group members in different ways. Experiments and computer simulations have shown that a few individuals within a group can lead others, for a precise task and at a specific moment. As a group travels, different individuals possessing a particular knowledge may act as temporary leaders, so that the group will, as a whole, follow their behaviour. In this paper, we use a model to study different factors influencing group response to temporary leadership. The model is based on four individual behaviours. Three of those, attraction, repulsion, and alignment, are shared by all individuals. The last one, attraction toward the source of a stimulus, concerns only a fraction of the group members. We explore the influence of group size, proportion of stimulated individuals, number of influential neighbours, and intensity of the attraction to the source of the stimulus, on the proportion of the group reaching this source. Special attention is given to the simulation of large group size, close to those observed in nature. Groups of 100, 400 and 900 individuals are currently simulated, and up to 8,000 in one experiment. We show that more stimulated individuals and a larger group size both induce the arrival of a larger fraction of the group. The number of influential neighbours and the intensity of the stimulus have a non-linear influence on the proportion of the group arrival, displaying first a positive relationship and then, above a given threshold, a negative one. We conclude that an intermediate level of group cohesion provides optimal transfer information from knowledgeable to naive individuals.