Assessing landscape values: a proposal for a multidimensional conceptual model

To evaluate a specific form of resource management, for example, the maintenance of valuable cultural landscapes, the contributions of many different viewpoints must be considered. In this paper, a model for assessing and integrating the different aspects contributing to landscape evaluation is proposed. Some results of its use in landscape assessment in the Madrid region (central Spain) are discussed.The model takes into account five assessment dimensions which are considered to be independent—the ecological, productive, economic, social and cultural evaluative systems and it recognises and assumes conflicts and trade-offs between these components. The inclusion of the production system as an independent assessment dimension is original and is justified because it is the link that connects the ecological and economic systems. Since this dimension acts most directly on the ecosystem, the production system includes the attribute of ecological or strong (in the sense of [For the Common Good, Beacon Press, Boston, 1994]) sustainability.The evaluation method places special emphasis on defining a conceptual framework, and from this defines scenarios in comparison with which particular development models (landscape planning, resources management) can be evaluated. Seven scenarios, coming from a hypothetical, traditional sustainable scenario of resources management, are defined. One of these, the sound sustainable scenario, is defended as the only one viable in the long term, particularly in developing countries.This method was employed to evaluate the agricultural and natural landscape of the Madrid region municipalities. The multivariate approach adopted was based on the selection of indicator sets for each evaluative dimension. The structure of relationships among indicators was then analysed separately for each dimension and values assigned to the municipalities according to their position on the main axes of the multivariate analyses. Each municipality was assigned to one of the seven development scenarios by means of discriminant analysis. The approach’s greatest assets are its flexibility in the selection of the indicators and the efficacy in its monitoring and comparison of the different analysed cases once a rigorous conceptual framework was established.The paper discusses the conditions for the sustainability of the human activities and provides a method for evaluating and comparing scenarios of resources management.     

Genuine saving rate: An integrated indicator to measure urban sustainable development towards an ecocity

The construction of an ecocity is gradually gaining attention as an indicator of sustainable development. Genuine saving rate (GSR), which takes account of various impacts of economic activities including depletion of natural resources, costs of environmental pollution and long-term environmental damage, can be used as an integrated indicator to measure the status quo and potential of sustainability for an ecocity. This paper discusses the concept of an ecocity; and analyses the time-series of GSR in Suzhou between 1991–2001 as a case study used to develop a standard method of measuring sustainability. The status quo and trends in urban sustainability in six case study cities in China are then evaluated and compared. The results show the current status: Suzhou (23.6%), Guangzhou(18.9%), Ningbo (14.7%), Yantai (13.1%), Yangzhou (11.7%) and Sanming (7.9%). The study demonstrates that GSR provides not only a linkage by which local governmental departments for resources management, environmental protection, finance and planning can be connected directly, but also an effective analytical tool for the planning and construction of an ecocity as well as decision-making support for local governments.     

An integrated model for structure optimization and technology screening of urban wastewater systems

The conventional approach to wastewater system design and planning considers each component separately and does not provide the optimum performance of the entire system. However, the growing concern for environmental protection, economic efficiency, and sustainability of urban wastewater systems requires an integrated modeling of subsystems and a synthetic evaluation of multiple objectives. In this study, a multi-objective optimization model of an integrated urban wastewater system was developed. The model encompasses subsystems, such as a sewer system, stormwater management, municipal wastewater treatment, and a wastewater reclamation system. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was used to generate a range of system design possibilities to optimize conflicting environmental and economic objectives. Information from a knowledge base, which included rules for generating treatment trains as well as the performance characteristics of commonly used water pollution control measures, was utilized. The trade-off relationships between the objectives, total water pollution loads to the environment, and life cycle costs (which consist of investment as well as operation and maintenance costs), can be illustrated using Pareto charts. The developed model can be used to assist decision makers in the preliminary planning of system structure. A benchmark city was constructed to illustrate the methods of multi-objective controls, highlight cost-effective water pollution control measures, and identify the main pressures on urban water environment.     

Resource-based cities (RBC): a road to sustainability

Resource-based cities (RBC) have made momentous contributions to urbanization in China. However, as natural resources are exhausted, RBC are facing an enormous challenge. In this paper we put forward a resource-based city sustainability index (RCSI) and a resource-based city coordination index (RCCI), including environmental, social, and economic dimensions, adopted three weight scenarios, and selected 13 cities for study. The results: (a) help locate the problems by analyzing both dimensions and indicators; (b) simulate the trends of how RBC emerged, grew, declined, and regenerated; (c) categorize RBC into four types by integrating RCSI and RCCI; (d) give policy makers a holistic and comprehensive perspective in the future urban regulation and management; and (e) highlight a road to sustainability.     

The Mekong—applications of value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) simulation to the benefits,costs and consequences of water resources development in a large river basin

Conditional value at risk (CVaR) was developed as a coherent measure of expected loss given that actual loss exceeds some value at risk (VaR) threshold. To date the concept has been primarily used to support quantitative risk assessment for investment decisions and portfolio management, using stochastic financial models to minimise the risk of unacceptable monetary loss. Intriguingly, the models and concepts are potentially adaptable to water resources planning and operational problems. This paper explores the application of CVaR within the context of identifying the risk of macro-economic damage to the fishery resources of Tonle Sap given reduced volumes of flow on the mainstream Mekong during the flood season. Emphasis is placed on simulating the linkages between the seasonally available flows in the Mekong mainstream, Tonle Sap water levels, annual fish catch and its economic value.We present scenarios using real hydrological and fish catch data along with exploratory concepts of contingency fund costs in terms of national and international aid requirements. The objective is to estimate the potential economic loss at a prescribed level of probability and to illustrate how VaR and CVaR may be calculated in this context. We demonstrate the properties of these risk measures through their behaviour under continuous and discontinuous loss distributions. We show that CVaR has advantages over VaR even under a relatively simple modelling approach. In the case where a loss distribution has discontinuities, VaR is potentially a poor measure of risk as it can vary unacceptably with a small increase in probability level. CVaR is stable in these situations. Here we find that when the loss distribution is continuous the CVaR is only marginally higher than the VaR. However, for the more realistic model where the loss distribution is discontinuous, the CVaR is substantially greater.We demonstrate the potential use of these two risk measures on a simple set of models of the Tonle Sap fishery in Cambodia. The sustainability of this fishery is crucial to the country in order to avoid even further dependence on international donor aid. Estimating the financial risk to which the national government and potential aid donors might be exposed given any damage to the fishery is the essence of this exploratory study of VaR and CVaR.     

On eco-planning for an eco-demonstration park (EDP) and sustainability

The background, concept, connotation, principles, and methods of eco-planning for an Eco-Demonstration Park (EDP) and sustainability were examined based on a case study of the Luhua EDP in the Chongming Island of Shanghai, China, which is an important part of Shanghai Eco-city planning and construction in the 21st century. By analyzing natural, social and economic conditions, calculating population using the land capacity eco-model, eco-function zoning, and eco-construction, an innovative eco-industrial structure and technical chain were formulated. A comprehensive eco-planning scheme for the EDP was proposed, including planning and management strategies for subsystems of efficient industry, good quality human settlement, high standard eco-construction and eco-tourism as well as effective environmental protection and attractive landscape. The EDP should be an area with coordinated and sustainable economic, social and environmental subsystems. Eco-planning for the EDP should be a very important part of eco-city planning and sustainability. The paper aims to set up a theoretical framework and practical basis for eco-planning and promoting harmony between human and nature.     

On eco-planning for an eco-demonstration park (EDP) and sustainability—Case study of the Luhua EDP in the Chongming Island of Shanghai, China

The background, concept, connotation, principles, and methods of eco-planning for an Eco-Demonstration Park (EDP) and sustainability were examined based on a case study of the Luhua EDP in the Chongming Island of Shanghai, China, which is an important part of Shanghai Eco-city planning and construction in the 21st century. By analyzing natural, social and economic conditions, calculating population using the land capacity eco-model, eco-function zoning, and eco-construction, an innovative eco-industrial structure and technical chain were formulated. A comprehensive eco-planning scheme for the EDP was proposed, including planning and management strategies for subsystems of efficient industry, good quality human settlement, high standard eco-construction and eco-tourism as well as effective environmental protection and attractive landscape. The EDP should be an area with coordinated and sustainable economic, social and environmental subsystems. Eco-planning for the EDP should be a very important part of eco-city planning and sustainability. The paper aims to set up a theoretical framework and practical basis for eco-planning and promoting harmony between human and nature.     

Utility of Dynamic-Landscape Metapopulation Models for Sustainable Forest Management

Abstract:  We evaluated the utility of combining metapopulation models with landscape-level forest-dynamics models to assess the sustainability of forest management practices. We used the Brown Creeper ( Certhia americana ) in the boreal forests of northern Ontario as a case study. We selected the Brown Creeper as a potential indicator of sustainability because it is relatively common in the region but is dependent on snags and old trees for nesting and foraging; hence, it may be sensitive to timber harvesting. For the modeling we used RAMAS Landscape, a software package that integrates RAMAS GIS, population-modeling software, and LANDIS, forest-dynamics modeling software. Predictions about the future floristic composition and structure of the landscape under a variety of management and natural disturbance scenarios were derived using LANDIS. We modeled eight alternative forest management scenarios, ranging in intensity from no timber harvesting and a natural fire regime to intensive timber harvesting with salvage logging after fire. We predicted the response of the Brown Creeper metapopulation over a 160-year period and used future population size and expected minimum population size to compare the sustainability of the various management scenarios. The modeling methods were easy to apply and model predictions were sensitive to the differences among management scenarios, indicating that these methods may be useful for assessing and ranking the sustainability of forest management options. Primary concerns about the method are the practical difficulties associated with incorporating fire stochasticity in prediction uncertainty and the number of model assumptions that must be made and tested with sensitivity analysis. We wrote new software to help quantify the contribution of landscape stochasticity to model prediction uncertainty.     

Exploring the role of local community perceptions in sustainability measurements

Measuring sustainability is an integral part of decision-making processes in order to promote sustainable development. The present paper focuses on sustainability indicators as these are measured on local level and explores two main issues: firstly, the subjective measurement of indicators focusing especially on social dimensions of sustainability, secondly, the incorporation of local perceptions in sustainability assessments. These two issues are explored in the Asopos River basin in Greece, an area where significant environmental degradation has been observed in the past decades and is also under financial pressure due to the ongoing national recession. A large-scale research study was conducted measuring environmental, economic and social indicators while, at a second stage, a model was developed, estimating new indicators that incorporate local communities’ perceptions on what they considered as important for their area. The results of the study reveal that the most important indicators for the sustainable development of the area, according to locals’ perceptions, are environmental quality as well as quality of life. By contrast, trust in local and central institutions and also local enterprises were not considered as important by locals. These results illustrate the importance of combining global and national scale assessment with locally focused social measurements of sustainability in order to better understand what is important for local communities prior to embarking on public policy planning.     

Incentivizing Monitoring and Compliance in Trophy Hunting

Conservation scientists are increasingly focusing on the drivers of human behavior and on the implications of various sources of uncertainty for management decision making. Trophy hunting has been suggested as a conservation tool because it gives economic value to wildlife, but recent examples show that overharvesting is a substantial problem and that data limitations are rife. We use a case study of trophy hunting of an endangered antelope, the mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni), to explore how uncertainties generated by population monitoring and poaching interact with decision making by 2 key stakeholders: the safari companies and the government. We built a management strategy evaluation model that encompasses the population dynamics of mountain nyala, a monitoring model, and a company decision making model. We investigated scenarios of investment into antipoaching and monitoring by governments and safari companies. Harvest strategy was robust to the uncertainty in the population estimates obtained from monitoring, but poaching had a much stronger effect on quota and sustainability. Hence, reducing poaching is in the interests of companies wishing to increase the profitability of their enterprises, for example by engaging community members as game scouts. There is a threshold level of uncertainty in the population estimates beyond which the year‐to‐year variation in the trophy quota prevented planning by the safari companies. This suggests a role for government in ensuring that a baseline level of population monitoring is carried out such that this level is not exceeded. Our results illustrate the importance of considering the incentives of multiple stakeholders when designing frameworks for resource use and when designing management frameworks to address the particular sources of uncertainty that affect system sustainability most heavily. Incentivando el Monitoreo y el Cumplimiento en la Caza de Trofeos     

Meeting report

SUMMARY

In many developing countries, the determination of a ranking of investments designed to improve and extend the road system is a commonplace prerequisite of planning for the transport sector as a whole and the road sub-sector within it. A major objective of determining investment priorities is to secure the greatest efficiency in the use of resources allocated to the sector and, for this reason, any system of assigning priorities must rely upon conventional investment appraisal techniques producing quantifiable measures of worth. Exercises of this kind, in which road investments are identified and ranked, are usually undertaken to produce a road sector investment plan. The implementation of such plans is, however, often compromised because of perceived deficiencies with a methodology which places undue reliance on investment appraisal and fails to properly address the issue of public interest and sustainability. This paper attempts to produce a pragmatic set of ground rules which, while mindful of the need to promote economic efficiency, allow for other factors to be embraced in a more holistic methodology.     

Towards the definition of budget models for the evolution of deltas

Global climatic change is likely to take place and could eventually affect Mediterranean deltas and other lowlying coastal regions. This would have serious implications for the natural resources of these deltaic areas, as well as for human settlements and related economic activities. To achieve sound decision making, to prevent damages and to avoid risky investments, it is necessary to understand the integral functioning of deltaic areas and to determine their vulnerability and response to large-scale change phenomena. Optimal use of the available knowledge will require that existing and new field measurements are combined and that integrated (physical/ecological) conceptual models of deltaic behaviour are developed with socio-economics scenarios as boundary conditions. This paper illustrates the methodological effort towards organizing a modeling framework to conduct budget computations at various scales with reference to the most significant ‘physiogrpahic units’ and to the most significant deltaic processes. The final objective is to handle the problem of evaluating possible changes under different scenarios.     

Decision-support tools for dynamic management

Spatial management is a valuable strategy to advance regional goals for nature conservation, economic development, and human health. One challenge of spatial management is navigating the prioritization of multiple features. This challenge becomes more pronounced in dynamic management scenarios, in which boundaries are flexible in space and time in response to changing biological, environmental, or socioeconomic conditions. To implement dynamic management, decision-support tools are needed to guide spatial prioritization as feature distributions shift under changing conditions. Marxan is a widely applied decision-support tool designed for static management scenarios, but its utility in dynamic management has not been evaluated. EcoCast is a new decision-support tool developed explicitly for the dynamic management of multiple features, but it lacks some of Marxan's functionality. We used a hindcast analysis to compare the capacity of these 2 tools to prioritize 4 marine species in a dynamic management scenario for fisheries sustainability. We successfully configured Marxan to operate dynamically on a daily time scale to resemble EcoCast. The relationship between EcoCast solutions and the underlying species distributions was more linear and less noisy, whereas Marxan solutions had more contrast between waters that were good and poor to fish. Neither decision-support tool clearly outperformed the other; the appropriateness of each depends on management purpose, resource-manager preference, and technological capacity of tool developers. Article impact statement: Marxan can function as a decision-support tool for dynamic management scenarios in which boundaries are flexible in space and time.     

Exergetic assessment for ecological economic system: Chinese agriculture

Based on the thermodynamic concept of exergy as a unified measure for environmental resources and economic products, a framework for systems assessment is presented for ecological economies. With a typical systems diagram devised for a general ecological economy with four arm fluxes for free local natural resources, purchased economic investment, environmental impact and economic yield, system indices of the renewability index, exergy yield ratio, exergy investment ratio, environmental resource to yield ratio, system transformity and environmental stress index are defined for a congregated systems ecological assessment with essential implications to sustainability. As a detailed case study to the Chinese agriculture from 1980 to 2000 with cropping, forestry, stockbreeding and fishery sectors, extensive exergy account and systems assessment are carried out with emphasis on annual and structural variations against social political transitions. For the overall agriculture as a congregated ecological stage, the value of the system transformity is found around 10, the typical value for the general ecological hierarchy as well devised by Odum associated with Lindeman's Tenth Law.     

ToSIA—A tool for sustainability impact assessment of forest-wood-chains

Within the forest sector, the sustainability concept has evolved from a narrow focus on sustainable wood production to a much broader evaluation of environmental, social, and economic sustainability for whole value chains. A new software tool - ToSIA - has been developed for assessing sustainability impacts of Forest-Wood-Chains (FWCs). In the approach, FWCs are defined as chains of production processes (e.g. harvesting-transport-industrial processing), which are linked with products (e.g. a timber frame house). Sustainability is determined by analysing environmental, economic, and social sustainability indicators for all the production processes along the FWC. The tool calculates sustainability values as products of the relative indicator values (i.e. indicator value expressed per unit of material flow) multiplied with the material flow entering the process. Calculated sustainability values are then aggregated for the segments of the FWC or for the complete chain. The sustainability impact assessment requires carefully specified system boundaries. ToSIA uses a data-oriented approach that is very flexible in the focus of the analysis and the selection of indicators of sustainability. An example of alternative Norway spruce management systems in Southern Germany and their effects on six sustainability indicators is presented. The less intensive management system with natural regeneration and motor-manual harvesting shows higher carbon storage and slightly less energy use. It creates more employment and higher labour costs, but the average rate of accidents is also higher. ToSIA offers a transparent and consistent methodological framework to assess sustainability impacts in the forest-based sector as affected, e.g. by changes in policies, market conditions, or technology. The paper discusses strengths and limitations of the approach and provides an outlook on further development perspectives of the methodology.     

Setting conservation management thresholds using a novel participatory modeling approach

We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat‐forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost‐effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants’ consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future.     

Is the economic dimension inducing the other sustainability dimensions,or is it the reverse? Perceptions from the Portuguese metal industry

ABSTRACT

In organizational sustainability, the economic dimension is recognized as having a very important role. However, the discussion regarding whether it is exclusively the economic dimension that has the power to induce the other sustainability dimensions is far from agreement. The purpose of the present paper is to analyze the perceptions regarding the existence of mutual influences between the economic dimension of sustainability and the other sustainability dimensions – environmental, social and cultural – in a relevant Portuguese economic sector: the metal industry. The analysis and statistical tests performed with the 211 collected answers led to the conclusion that the influence exerted by the economic dimension on the other sustainability dimensions is perceived as dominant, both in present and future perspectives. The results also show the perception that the economic dimension is equally influenced by the environmental and social dimensions, and in a less extent, by the cultural dimension, and that all these mutual influences are perceived to increase in the future. The existence of organizational management systems has a positive effect on the perceptions regarding the existence of mutual influences between sustainability dimensions, but only for those companies with more than one certified management system. These results confirm that organizational management systems are connected to higher degrees of awareness regarding sustainability issues. Given that the great majority of the sampled industries are SMEs, the results obtained in this research demonstrate that the existence of mutual influences between sustainability dimensions is recognized even in small-sized industries.     

Backcasting — a framework for strategic planning

Backcasting is a planning methodology that is particularly helpful when problems at hand are complex and when present trends are part of the problems. When applied in planning towards sustainability, backcasting can increase the likelihood of handling the ecologically complex issues in a systematic and coordinated way, and also to foresee certain changes, even from a self-beneficial point of view, of the market and increase the chances of a relatively strong economic performance. To that end, backcasting should be performed from a set of non-overlapping principles that are general enough to be helpful in the coordination of different sectors of society and in business, as well as to cover relevant aspects of sustainability. Such principles are helpful when developing reliable non-overlapping indicators for monitoring of the development when coordinating various measures from different sectors of the society or within individual firms with each other, and when handling trade-offs in a relevant way. Furthermore, the transition can benefit from being undertaken in a strategic step-by-step manner, by which such investments search for those that combine two qualities: (i) technical flexibility to serve as platforms for future investments in line with non-overlapping principles of sustainability, and (ii) good possibilities of giving relatively fast return on investment. This framework for planning is developed together with the Natural Step, a non-government organization, and in collaboration with a network of scientists and business. Examples are given from firms applying the framework.     

An interval joint-probabilistic programming method for solid waste management: a case study for the city of Tianjin, China

Currently, environmental protection and resources conservation continue to be challenges faced by solid-waste managers in China. These challenges are being further compounded by rapid socioeconomic devel- opment and population growth associated with increased waste generation rates and decreased waste disposal capacities. In response to these challenges, an interval joint-probabilistic mixed-integer programming （IJMP） method is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste management activities in the city of Tianjin, which is one of the largest municipalities in the northern part of China. In the IJMP, joint probabilistic constraints are introduced into an interval-parameter mixed-integer programming framework, such that uncertainties presented in terms of interval values and random variables can be reflected. Moreover, a number of violation levels for the waste-management-capacity constraints are examined, which can facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among economic objective and system-failure risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the city＇s existing waste-management practices and the long- term planning of the city＇s waste-management facilities.     

Working with indicators: description of states of territorial adjustment for protected natural areas

As is the case to date with respect to sustainability indicators, there is an enormous quantity of information available about their basic components (social, economic and environmental), but these are generally dealt with in a sectoral and fragmented manner, and the components have been analysed and approached in a more or less independent fashion. On the other hand, it is difficult to find indicators that encompass all the dimensions of sustainability. The topic chosen for this research is sustainability organised in a systematic fashion, which entails taking the combination of issues that affect each subsystem and investigating the states of territorial adjustment that exist between each of them. In short, it is the possibility of establishing a sustainable territorial development pattern, accepting that the economic and social activities that utilise the natural resources influence sustainability, and that they will do so to a greater or lesser extent depending on the effectiveness of the conservation of the stock of resources. The Territorial Adjustment Indicator System (TAIS) is a good tool that enables the management, assessment and monitoring of development processes in PNAs (protected natural areas), facilitating homogeneity and uniformity to aid comparison between protected areas in the centre-south of Spain, principally those areas designated as natural parks (NPs).