Emissionen und Minderungspotential von HFKW, FKW und SF6 in Deutschland

The greenhouse gases subject to emission reduction commitments under the UN Climate Convention include the fluorinated compounds sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The present study projects the emissions of these gases in Germany over the 1995–2010 period, with and without additional emission abatement efforts In the business-as-usual scenario, total emissions of the three fluorinated gases rise over the 1995–2010 period from 11,1 to 27.4 million tonnes CO₂ equivalent. This rise is attributable to 72% to HFCs, used above all for refrigeration and stationary air-conditioning, for mobile air-conditioning, for blowing extruded polystyrene (XPS) foam and for one-component polyurethane (PU) foam. Soundproof glazing is the largest SF₆ emission sector. Most PFC emissions come from semiconductor manufacturing and aluminium smelting. The reduction scenario does not achieve a stabilisation of fluorinated gas emissions either. The rate of growth is only slowed, with 11.1 million tonnes CO₂ equivalent in 1995 growing to 14.9 million in 2010. The measures proposed to attenuate emissions growth are: mandatory equipment maintenance in refrigeration and stationary air-conditioning, refrigerant substitution of HFCs by CO₂ in mobile air-conditioning, partial HFC substitution by CO₂ in XPS foam blowing, 95% HFC substitution by flammable hydrocarbons in one-component PU foam. Complete SF₆ phase-out is considered to be feasible in soundproof glazing. The PFC emissions of the semiconductor industry can be cut by 85% by new chamber cleaning technologies.     

Impact of nutrient removal through harvesting on the sustainability of the boreal forest

The cycling of base cations (K, Ca, Mg, and Na) was investigated in a boreal balsam fir forest (the Lake Laflamme Watershed) between 1999 and 2005. Base cation budgets were calculated for the soil rooting zone that included atmospheric deposition and soil leaching losses, two scenarios of tree uptake (whole-tree and stem-only harvesting), and three scenarios of mineral weathering, leading to six different scenarios. In every scenario there was a net accumulation of Mg within the soil exchangeable reservoir, while Ca accumulated in four scenarios. Potassium was lost in five of the six scenarios. Contrary to Ca and Mg, immobilization of K within tree biomass (69 mol x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) was the main pathway of K losses from the soil exchangeable reservoir, being five times higher than losses via soil leaching (14 mol x ha(-1) x yr(-1)). The amounts of K contained within the aboveground biomass and the exchangeable soil reservoir were 3.3 kmol/ha and 4.2 kmol/ha, respectively. Whole-tree harvesting may thus remove 44% of the K that is readily available for cycling in the short term, making this forest sensitive to commercial forestry operations. Similar values of annual K uptake as well as a similar distribution of K between tree biomass and soil exchangeable reservoirs at 14 other coniferous sites, distributed throughout the boreal forest of Quebec, suggest that the Lake Laflamme Watershed results can be extrapolated to a much larger area. Stem-only harvesting, which would reduce K exports due to biomass removal by 60%, should be used for these types of forest.     

气候变化对亚高山暗针叶林土壤温室气体排放的影响

利用生物地球化学模犁Forest-DNDC模拟气候变化对贡嘎山亚高山暗针叶林土壤温室气体的释放的影响.以位于贡嘎山东坡海拔3 000 m的峨眉冷杉(Abies fabri)中龄林为研究对象,以1999-2006年8年的日气候数据进行平均得到的日平均最高温度、日平均最低温度和日平均降水总最作为基线(Base)气候情景,另外设置了温度+2℃(升)、温度.2℃(T-)、降水量+20%(P+)、降水量-20%(P-)、温度十2℃同时降水量+20%(T+P+)、温度-2℃同时降水量-20%(T-P-)、温度+2℃同时降水量-20%(T+P-)、温度-2℃同时降水量+20%(T-P+)8种气候变化情景.结果显示:贡嘎山峨眉冷杉林土壤CO_2释放随着温度增加而增加,土壤N_2O释放对降水量改变敏感,而土壤NO的释放对温度和降水的改变均比较敏感,二者表现为协同作用.温度+2℃同时降水量+20%(升P+)情景下土壤CO_2释放最高,高于基线情景的36.08%;温度-2℃同时降水量+20%(T-P+)情景下土壤CO_2释放最低,低于基线情景的36.89%.土壤N_2O释放随着降水量的增加而升高,随着降水量减少而降低;温度和降水最同时增加时土壤NO释放均高于单一增加温度或降水量情景,而温度和降水量同时降低时土壤NO释放均低于单一降低温度或降水量情景.     

Long-term forest management and timely transfer of carbon into wood products help reduce atmospheric carbon

In their efforts to deal with global climate change, scientists and governments have given much attention to the carbon emissions associated with fossil fuels and to strategies for reducing their use. While it is very important to burn less fossil fuel and to employ alternative energy sources, other carbon-reduction options must also be considered. Given that forests comprise a large portion of the global landbase and that they play a very significant role in the global carbon cycle, it is logical to examine how forest management practices could effect reductions in carbon emissions. Many papers that discuss forest carbon sinks or sources refer only to the short term (<20 years). This paper focuses on the sustainable carbon storage contributions of a forest over the long term. This paper explains that long-term carbon storage and reduced carbon fluctuation can be achieved by a combination of improved forest management and efficient transfer of carbon into wood products. Here we show how three different forest management scenarios affect the overall carbon storage capacity of forest and wood products combined over the long term. We used a timber supply model and scenario analysis to predict forest carbon and other resource conditions over time in the Prince George Forest District, a 3.4-million-ha landbase in northern British Columbia. We found that the high-harvest scenario stores 3% more carbon than the low-harvest scenario and 27% (120 million tonnes) more carbon than the no-harvest scenario even though only 1.2-million ha is in timber harvesting landbase. Our results tell us that forest management practices that maintain and increase forest area, reduce natural disturbances in the forest, improve forest conditions, and ensure the appropriate and timely transfer of carbon into wood products lead to increasing overall carbon storage, thereby reducing carbon in the atmosphere.     

Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.     

The bridge between diversity and adaptivity: Answering McIntosh and Jeffrey

SUMMARY

The emerging concept of industrial ecology (IE) has been applied in practice in few case studies on local/regional industrial recycling networks. Analogously to a natural ecosystem, the aim is to develop material cycles and energy cascades between local cooperative actors. An optimal resource basis of an industrial ecosystem is the sustainable use of local renewable natural resources. In this paper, we consider the region of North Karelia in Finland, with 19 municipalities, and hence somewhat expand the system boundaries of an industrial ecosystem case study. The current situation and two scenarios of municipal heating energy production are presented. The heating system consists of individual, district and electric heating. The heat production and related greenhouse gas emissions are considered. The current fuel use is based on imported oil and regional fuels (peat, wood wastes). Also, shares for co-production of heat and electricity (CHP) are shown. In scenario one, we assume the majority of the fuel basis in oil and absence of CHP. Scenario two illustrates nearly complete dependence on regional wood wastes and firewood with the current share of CHP. The North Karelia region provides the IE theory with a fruitful case study because the supply of waste fuels and local renewables is vast and waste utilisation technologies (CHP, fluidized bed burning) constitute a significant part of energy production. Implications of the applied scenario approach are discussed in the context of regional decision making and, in particular, for its implementation with the concepts of a regional environmental management system (EMS) and a regional industrial ecosystem management system (RIEMS).     

The perpetual state of emergency that sacrifices protected areas in a changing climate

A modern challenge for conservation biology is to assess the consequences of policies that adhere to assumptions of stationarity (e.g., historic norms) in an era of global environmental change. Such policies may result in unexpected and surprising levels of mitigation given future climate‐change trajectories, especially as agriculture looks to protected areas to buffer against production losses during periods of environmental extremes. We assessed the potential impact of climate‐change scenarios on the rates at which grasslands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are authorized for emergency harvesting (i.e., biomass removal) for agricultural use, which can occur when precipitation for the previous 4 months is below 40% of the normal or historical mean precipitation for that 4‐month period. We developed and analyzed scenarios under the condition that policy will continue to operate under assumptions of stationarity, thereby authorizing emergency biomass harvesting solely as a function of precipitation departure from historic norms. Model projections showed the historical likelihood of authorizing emergency biomass harvesting in any given year in the northern Great Plains was 33.28% based on long‐term weather records. Emergency biomass harvesting became the norm (>50% of years) in the scenario that reflected continued increases in emissions and a decrease in growing‐season precipitation, and areas in the Great Plains with higher historical mean annual rainfall were disproportionately affected and were subject to a greater increase in emergency biomass removal. Emergency biomass harvesting decreased only in the scenario with rapid reductions in emissions. Our scenario‐impact analysis indicated that biomass from lands enrolled in the CRP would be used primarily as a buffer for agriculture in an era of climatic change unless policy guidelines are adapted or climate‐change projections significantly depart from the current consensus.     

The impact on tropospheric ozone formation on the implementation of a program for mobile emissions control: a case study in São Paulo,Brazil

The main sources of reactive hydrocarbons (RHC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), ozone precursors, in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) in the southeast of Brazil are emissions from vehicles fleets. Ambient surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations are air quality problem in the MASP. This study examined the impact that implementing a control program for mobile emissions has on ozone concentrations, An episode of high surface ozone concentrations occurring in the MASP during the March 13–15, 2000 period was used as a case study that was modeled for photochemical oxidants using the California Institute of Technology/Carnegie Mellon University three-dimensional photochemical model. Different scenarios were analyzed in relationship to the implementation of the Programa Nacional de Controle de Poluição por Veículos Automotores (PROCONVE, National Program to Control Motor Vehicle Pollution). Scenario 1 assumed that all vehicles were operating within PROCONVE guidelines. Scenarios 2 and 3 considered hypothetical situations in which the PROCONVE was not implemented. Scenario 2 set the premise that vehicles were using pre-1989 technology, whereas scenario 3 allowed for technological advances. A base case scenario, in which the official emission inventory for the year 2000 was employed, was also analyzed. The CIT model results show agreement with most measurements collected during 13–15 March 2000 modeling episode. Mean normalized bias for ozone, CO, RHC and NO _x are approximately 9.0, 6.0, ?8.3, 13.0%, respectively. Tropospheric ozone concentrations predicted for scenario 2 were higher than those predicted for scenarios 1, 3 and base case. This study makes a significant contribution to the evaluation of air quality improvement and provides data for use in evaluating the economic costs of implementing a program of motor vehicle pollution control aimed at protecting human health.     

Impacts of inter-sectoral trade on carbon emissions—a case of China in 2007

With the increase in international trade, more attention has been given to quantifying the impacts of international trade on energy use and carbon emissions. Input-output analysis is a suitable tool for assessing resources or pollutants embodied in trade and it has become a critical tool for performing such analysis. This study estimated the national and sectoral carbon emissions embodied in Chinese international trade using the latest available China input-output table of 2007. The results showed that a significant exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions existed in China??s trade. Over 1/3 of the emissions in Chinese domestic production processes were generated for exports in 2007. The net balance of emissions embodied in exports and imports accounted for nearly 30% of China??s domestic emissions, which means that any policy made to increase the exports would result in a significant growth of China??s domestic emissions. Since over half of China??s export trade is processing trade, the re-exported emissions could not be overlooked; otherwise, it would hard to capture the actual emissions generated abroad to obtain China??s domestic consumption. The enlargement of export scale is a primary driven factor to the rapid growth of China??s exported emissions. It is necessary for China to adjust its economic and industrial structure to reduce the dependence of economic growth on the export trade. However, when adjusting industry structures or making policies on carbon emission reduction, it will be more reasonable to consider the relationship between production and consumption, rather than just focus on the emission values of sectors?? direct production, as a large part of carbon emissions emitted by the principal direct polluters were generated to obtain the products which were required by other sectors.     

Modelling nutrient emissions from river systems and loads to the coastal zone: Po River case study,Italy

The nutrient emission model MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions into River Systems) is applied to the Po catchment, a large (>70,000 km²), densely populated, highly agriculturally exploited and industrialized landscape. The catchment is located in northern Italy. The Po River discharges into the northwestern Adriatic Sea. Model runs cover the period 1991–2000. The purpose is to model the catchment in 2001, estimating nutrient emissions and natural background in the basin and loads to the coastal area. The model was calibrated with data for the period 1990–1995. After validation with data for the period 1995–2000, the model is used to evaluate future catchment management scenarios.MONERIS is a spatially distributed parameters steady state model with a time scale of 5 years. The emissions considered are originated from diffuse and point sources and delivered trough various pathways (groundwater, erosion, overland flow, atmospheric deposition, urban systems and WWTPs). In order to estimate nutrient loads to the river system, MONERIS includes a retention model.An overview of model input requirements, data needs and related problems and solutions adopted is presented in the paper. Simulated and measured data of several sections along the river are compared for calibration and validation. The relative importance of different nutrient generation pathways are evaluated. Finally, forecasted yearly nutrient loads at the outlet of PO basin for the years 2001, 2008 and 2016, consequence of different basin management scenarios, are presented. The results are ready to be supplied to a water quality Coastal Zone Model, allowing us to evaluate significant switches in trophic state conditions of the coastal ecosystem [see Artioli, Y., Bendoricchio, G., Palmeri, L., this issue. Defining and modelling the coastal zone affected by the Po River (Italy). Ecol. Model.].     

Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles

We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.     

Management of nutrient emissions of Axios River catchment: Their effect in the coastal zone of Thermaikos Gulf,Greece

The estimation of nutrient fluxes, the determination of spatial and temporal response and the understanding of biogeochemical changes in the past, present and future in the Axios River catchment, in Greece, as well as the impacts to the coastal zone of Thermaikos Gulf were accomplished by the use of harmonized watershed and coastal zone models. The mathematical model MONERIS was the watershed management model that was used to model the export loads of nutrients in Axios River. MONERIS was developed to estimate the nutrient inputs into river basins by point sources and various diffuse pathways. Watershed hydrologic and water quality data were collected and synthesized to develop input data sets for the simulation of Axios River catchment. The model was modified to better assess organic nitrogen export loads in Mediterranean watersheds. The results showed the importance of agricultural and livestock activities, concerning their nutrients emissions in the River. MONERIS was integrated with the coastal zone model WASP 6.0 to assess the impacts of the nutrient loads to the eutrophication status of the coastal zone. Several management scenarios were assessed. Management scenarios included measures for reduction in the emissions from the fertilizer plant of Veles, removal of phosphorous from the detergents in FYROM, treatment of urban wastes to EU Standards, reduction in N-fertilizer input, reduction in erosion and the green scenario that represented the maximum reduction scenario of all the measures together. The model simulations indicated that the coastal zone of Axios mouth will be eutrophic for nitrate (2.69–3.34 μM) and phosphate (0.2–0.68 μM) and upper mesotrophic for chlorophyll-a (0.74–1.45 μg/l) for the scenarios tested. The results suggest that the impact of the management scenarios will be largely negligible (no change in trophic status) for the Thermaikos Gulf sector nearby the Axios River due to additional sources such as the loads from Thessaloniki's waste water treatment plant which appear to affect the region to a greater extent. The integration of watershed and coastal zone models can be used to assess management scenarios in order to illustrate the significance of various land use practices to the eutrophication of the Gulf.     

Is there really a green paradox?

In the absence of a CO₂ tax, the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of CO₂. Since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of CO₂ will decrease, the effect on global warming is unclear. Green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal, but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit CO₂ emissions. We establish these results by analyzing depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop, paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited. We also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non-renewable resource is owned by a monopolist. Finally, we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises, a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ, thus boosting green welfare. However, if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet, full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare.     

Is there really a green paradox?

In the absence of a CO₂ tax, the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of CO₂. Since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of CO₂ will decrease, the effect on global warming is unclear. Green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal, but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit CO₂ emissions. We establish these results by analyzing depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop, paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited. We also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non-renewable resource is owned by a monopolist. Finally, we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises, a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ, thus boosting green welfare. However, if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet, full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare.     

Examining the effects of alternative management strategies on landscape-scale forest patterns in northeastern Minnesota using LANDIS

Spatial modeling of forest patterns can provide information on the potential impact of various management strategies on large landscapes over long time frames. We used LANDIS, a stochastic, spatially-explicit, ecological landscape model to simulate 120 years of forest change on the Nashwauk Uplands, a 328,000 ha landscape in northeastern Minnesota that lies in the transition between boreal and temperate forests. We ran several forest management scenarios including current harvesting practices, no harvests, varied rotation ages, varied clearcut sizes, clustered clearcuts, and landowner coordination. We examined the effects of each scenario on spatial patterns of forests by covertype, age class, and mean and distribution of patch sizes. All scenarios reveal an increase in the spruce-fir (Picea-Abies) covertype relative to the economically paramount aspen-birch (Populus-Betula) covertype. Our results also show that most covertypes occur in mostly small patches <5 ha in size and the ability of management to affect patch size is limited by the highly varied physiography and landuse patterns on the landscape. However, coordination among landowners, larger clearcuts, and clustered clearcuts were all predicted to increase habitat diversity by creating some larger patches and older forest patches. These three scenarios along with the no harvest scenario also create more old forest than current harvesting practices, by concentrating harvesting on some portion of the landscape. The no harvest scenario retained large, fire-regenerated aspen-birch patches. Harvests fragment large aspen-birch patches by changing the age structure and releasing the shade-tolerant understory species. More sapling forest, and larger sapling patches resulted from the shortened rotation scenario.     

Transition to a low-carbon city: lessons learned from Suzhou in China

Climate change has become one of the most serious challenges facing humanity; developing a low-carbon economy provides new opportunities for addressing this issue. Building a low-carbon city has been pursued by people with a high degree of enthusiasm in China. Different from actions at the national level and distinct from practices of developed countries, low-carbon development in Chinese cities should be placed on diverse concerns. Taking Suzhou of Jiangsu Province of China as a case city, this paper adopts a scenario analysis approach to explore strategic focal points in the transition to a low-carbon city. Within this transition, we mainly focus on the different contributions from two factors-economic restructuring and technological upgrading. Scenario analysis results show that 1) in the case of no breakthrough technologies, it is difficult to achieve absolute emission reductions; 2) technologies involved in optimizing energy structure and improving energy efficiency of basic service sectors should be highly emphasized in local planning; 3) in comparison with technological upgrading, economic structural adjustment could be a stronger contributor to mitigation, which is one of the main differences from developed countries. However, the key issue of economic restructuring is to promote the growth of emerging low-carbon industries, which requires not only a strategic choice of new industries but also an introduction of advanced low-carbon technologies. It is also found that establishing a local carbon emissions accounting system is a prerequisite and the first priority for realizing a low-carbon transition and government capacity buildings should be strengthened accordingly.     

Evaluating the effects of future climate change and elevated CO2 on the water use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems of China

Water use efficiency (WUE) is an important variable used in climate change and hydrological studies in relation to how it links ecosystem carbon cycles and hydrological cycles together. However, obtaining reliable WUE results based on site-level flux data remains a great challenge when scaling up to larger regional zones. Biophysical, process-based ecosystem models are powerful tools to study WUE at large spatial and temporal scales. The Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change and elevated CO₂ concentrations on ecosystem-level WUE (defined as the ratio of gross primary production (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET)) in relation to terrestrial ecosystems in China for 2009-2099. Climate scenario data (IPCC SRES A2 and SRES B1) generated from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) was used in the simulations. Seven simulations were implemented according to the assemblage of different elevated CO₂ concentrations scenarios and different climate change scenarios. Analysis suggests that (1) further elevated CO₂ concentrations will significantly enhance the WUE over China by the end of the twenty-first century, especially in forest areas; (2) effects of climate change on WUE will vary for different geographical regions in China with negative effects occurring primarily in southern regions and positive effects occurring primarily in high latitude and altitude regions (Tibetan Plateau); (3) WUE will maintain the current levels for 2009-2099 under the constant climate scenario (i.e. using mean climate condition of 1951-2006 and CO₂ concentrations of the 2008 level); and (4) WUE will decrease with the increase of water resource restriction (expressed as evaporation ratio) among different ecosystems.     

On force consideration in coupled ISPH framework for sediment transport in presence of free-surface flow

A coupled divergence-free Incompressible Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (ISPH) framework for sediment transport is extended for application in generalized free-surface flow situations. The computation of interaction force pair between pure fluid and sediment modules makes the model flexible enough to be applicable for diverse scenarios with variable resolutions. Three scenarios are included to quantify the contribution of individual components in the force pair. First two scenarios with rapid free-surface variation highlight the effect of fluid pressure gradient on granular flow. The third scenario with minimal free-surface variation considers bed movement under a horizontal marine pipeline for a prolonged time period. The framework can simulate sediment transport for generalized problems with slowly/rapidly varying free-surface flow conditions.     

Evaluation of fast atmospheric dispersion models in a regular street network

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The need to balance computational speed and simulation accuracy is a key challenge in designing atmospheric dispersion models that can be used in scenarios where...     

Treibhausgas-Emissionen zukünftiger Erdgas-Bereitstellung für Deutschland

Background

Natural gas makes a significant contribution to the current energy supply and its importance, in relation to both the German and worldwide energy supplies, will increase further in decades to come. In addition to its high degree of efficiency, the low level of direct GHG combustion emissions is also an advantageous factor. However, around 90% of natural gas is methane (CH₄), which is the second most significant GHG due to its high greenhouse potential (21 times higher than CO₂). Therefore, high levels of direct gas losses of natural gas in its production, processing, transport and distribution could neutralise its low emission advantages. This is particularly apparent when considering the growing distances between production and use, the demanding production processes and the upcoming worldwide market for LNG (liquefied natural gas).

Aim

This paper aims to analyse and illustrate the future GHG emissions of the whole process chain of natural gas (indirect emissions) to be supplied to the German border over the next 2 decades. This should allow the comparison of total GHG emissions (indirect and direct) of natural gas with the GHG emissions of other fossil fuels. By considering likely changes in gas origin as well as dynamic changes in the infrastructure and technology of gas production, processing and transport until 2030, all relevant factors are included. The study focuses on the emissions of Russian natural gas as Russia is already, and will be in the future, the most important gas supplier to the German and European gas markets.

Results and Discussion

The analysis illustrates a significant change in the gas supply over the next two decades. The EU Gas Fields are in decline and it is predicted that these will run dry. In parallel the share of Russian and Norwegian natural gas, and also the levels of LNG production (e.g. from Algeria or Egypt), will increase. Although the potential for GHG emissions tends to grow as a result of greater transport distances and demanding production and processing activities, high investment in necessary mitigation options (e.g. through replacing older and inefficient technology; updating to state-of-the-art technology) may neutralise the increase. The overall result of these counteracting trends will be to decrease GHG emissions, in a range of around 12% per TJ of direct emissions of natural gas, depending on the level of investment in the modernisation of the Russian gas infrastructure and the improvements of the LNG process. In the two given scenarios the indirect emissions of the natural gas used in Germany will decrease from about 23 million t CO₂-eq (2005) to 19.5 or 17.6 million t CO₂-eq in the year 2030. In spite of a significant higher gas consumption the emissions are reduced in the first scenario due to technical modifications. In the second scenario the emission reduction is based on the lower gas consumption.

Conclusions

At present, the indirect GHG emissions of the natural gas process chain are comparable to the indirect emissions produced by oil and coal. The emission trend of the natural gas process chain will markedly decrease if the mitigation options are followed consistently. However, in order to ensure the long-term security of natural gas supply for future decades, a high level of investment is essential. With regard to future emissions, the best available technology and, therefore, that which is most economically feasible in the long term, should be used. Under these conditions natural gas — as the fossil fuel with the lowest levels of GHG emissions — can play a major role in the transition to a renewable energy supply for the future.