The importance of considering multiple interacting species for conservation of species at risk

Conservation of species at risk of extinction is complex and multifaceted. However, mitigation strategies are typically narrow in scope, an artifact of conservation research that is often limited to a single species or stressor. Knowledge of an entire community of strongly interacting species would greatly enhance the comprehensiveness and effectiveness of conservation decisions. We investigated how camera trapping and spatial count models, an extension of spatial-recapture models for unmarked populations, can accomplish this through a case study of threatened boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). Population declines in caribou are precipitous and well documented, but recovery strategies focus heavily on control of wolves (Canis lupus) and pay less attention to other known predators and apparent competitors. Obtaining necessary data on multispecies densities has been difficult. We used spatial count models to concurrently estimate densities of caribou, their predators (wolf, black bear [Ursus americanus], and coyote [Canis latrans]), and alternative prey (moose [Alces alces] and white-tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus]) from a camera-trap array in a highly disturbed landscape within northern Alberta's Oil Sands Region. Median densities were 0.22 caribous (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] = 0.08–0.65), 0.77 wolves (95% BCI = 0.26–2.67), 2.39 moose (95% BCI = 0.56–7.00), 2.64 coyotes (95% BCI = 0.45–6.68), and 3.63 black bears (95% BCI = 1.25–8.52) per 100 km². (The white-tailed deer model did not converge.) Although wolf densities were higher than densities recommended for caribou conservation, we suggest the markedly higher black bear and coyote densities may be of greater concern, especially if government wolf control further releases these species. Caribou conservation with a singular focus on wolf control may leave caribou vulnerable to other predators. We recommend a broader focus on the interacting species within a community when conserving species.     

Evaluating the impact of caribou habitat restoration on predator and prey movement

Fragmentation of the boreal forest by linear features, including seismic lines, has destabilized predator–prey dynamics, resulting in the decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations. Restoration of human-altered habitat has therefore been identified as a critical management tool for achieving self-sustaining woodland caribou populations. However, only recently has testing of the response of caribou and other wildlife to restoration activities been conducted. Early work has centered around assessing changes in wildlife use of restored seismic lines. We evaluated whether restoration reduces the movement rates of predators and their associated prey, which is expected to decrease predator hunting efficiency and ultimately reduce caribou mortality. We developed a new method for using cameras to measure fine-scale movement by measuring speed as animals traveled between cameras in an array. We used our method to quantify speed of caribou, moose (Alces alces), bears (Ursus americanus), and wolves (Canis lupus) on treated (restored) and untreated seismic lines. Restoration treatments reduced travel speeds along seismic lines of wolves by 1.38 km/h, bears by 0.55 km/h, and caribou by 1.57 km/h, but did not reduce moose travel speeds. Reduced predator and caribou speeds on treated seismic lines are predicted to decrease encounter rates between predators and caribou and thus lower caribou kill rates. However, further work is needed to determine whether reduced movement rates result in reduced encounter rates with prey, and ultimately reduced caribou mortality.     

The Role of Translocation in Recovery of Woodland Caribou Populations

Abstract: Maintenance of viable populations of many endangered species will require conservation action in perpetuity. Efforts to conserve these species are more likely to be successful if their reliance on conservation actions is assessed at the population level. Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were extirpated recently from Banff National Park, Canada, and translocations of caribou to Banff and neighboring Jasper National Park are being considered. We used population viability analysis to assess the relative need for and benefits from translocation of individuals among caribou populations. We measured stochastic growth rates and the probability of quasi extinction of four populations of woodland caribou with and without translocation. We used two vital rates in our analysis: mean adult female survival and mean number of calves per breeding‐age female as estimates of mean fecundity. We isolated process variance for each vital rate. Our results suggested the Tonquin caribou population in Jasper is likely to remain viable without translocation, but that translocation is probably insufficient to prevent eventual extirpation of the two other populations in Jasper. Simulated reintroductions of caribou into Banff resulted in a 53–98% probability of >8 females remaining after 20 years, which suggests translocation may be an effective recovery tool for some caribou populations.     

Optimization model for a wolf-ungulate system

Public outcries against predator control create a need to devise management policies that optimally balance the cost (managerial and environmental) of predator control against the benefit of ungulate harvesting. To address this problem, an optimization procedure utilizing stochastic dynamic programming is described. Through this approach, optimal feedback strategies for a wolf-ungulate system in Alaska are estimated. The dynamic predator-prey model used in the analysis is based on parameter estimates from data collected over an eight-year period in Denali (Mt. McKinley) National Park. Stability analysis of the system revealed that stability properties depend on predator search efficiency. The effects of random fluctuations in winter severity and alternative objective functions are considered in the estimation of optimal feedback strategies. Optimal moose harvesting strategies appear to be dependent on wolf control costs. If no wolf control cost is assessed, optimal moose harvest is independent of wolf density. Optimal wolf control strategies are completely insensitive to moose density. The strategies are compared to current and simplified management policies.     

Transcending scale dependence in identifying habitat with resource selection functions

Multi-scale resource selection modeling is used to identify factors that limit species distributions across scales of space and time. This multi-scale nature of habitat suitability complicates the translation of inferences to single, spatial depictions of habitat required for conservation of species. We estimated resource selection functions (RSFs) across three scales for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), with two objectives: (1) to infer the relative effects of two forms of anthropogenic disturbance (forestry and linear features) on woodland caribou distributions at multiple scales and (2) to estimate scale-integrated resource selection functions (SRSFs) that synthesize results across scales for management-oriented habitat suitability mapping. We found a previously undocumented scale-specific switch in woodland caribou response to two forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Caribou avoided forestry cut-blocks at broad scales according to first- and second-order RSFs and avoided linear features at fine scales according to third-order RSFs, corroborating predictions developed according to predator-mediated effects of each disturbance type. Additionally, a single SRSF validated as well as each of three single-scale RSFs when estimating habitat suitability across three different spatial scales of prediction. We demonstrate that a single SRSF can be applied to predict relative habitat suitability at both local and landscape scales in support of critical habitat identification and species recovery.     

The Interplay between Climate Variability and Density Dependence in the Population Viability of Chinook Salmon

Abstract:  The viability of populations is influenced by driving forces such as density dependence and climate variability, but most population viability analyses (PVAs) ignore these factors because of data limitations. Additionally, simplified PVAs produce limited measures of population viability such as annual population growth rate (λ) or extinction risk. Here we developed a "mechanistic" PVA of threatened Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in which, based on 40 years of detailed data, we related freshwater recruitment of juveniles to density of spawners, and third-year survival in the ocean to monthly indices of broad-scale ocean and climate conditions. Including climate variability in the model produced important effects: estimated population viability was very sensitive to assumptions of future climate conditions and the autocorrelation contained in the climate signal increased mean population abundance while increasing probability of quasi extinction. Because of the presence of density dependence in the model, however, we could not distinguish among alternative climate scenarios through mean λ values, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple measures to elucidate population viability. Our sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the importance of particular parameters varied across models and depended on which viability measure was the response variable. The density-dependent parameter associated with freshwater recruitment was consistently the most important, regardless of viability measure, suggesting that increasing juvenile carrying capacity is important for recovery.     

Dynamics of Hybridization and Introgression in Red Wolves and Coyotes

Abstract:  Hybridization and introgression are significant causes of endangerment in many taxa and are considered the greatest biological threats to the reintroduced population of red wolves ( Canis rufus ) in North Carolina (U.S.A.). Little is known, however, about these processes in red wolves and coyotes ( C. latrans ). We used individual-based simulations to examine the process of hybridization and introgression between these species. Under the range of circumstances we considered, red wolves in colonizing and established populations were quickly extirpated, persisted near the carrying capacity, or had intermediate outcomes. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the probabilities of quasi extinction and persistence of red wolves near the carrying capacity were most affected by the strength of two reproductive barriers: red wolf challenges and assortative mating between red wolves and coyotes. Because model parameters for these barriers may be difficult to estimate, we also sought to identify other predictors of red wolf population fate. The proportion of pure red wolves in the population was a strong predictor of the future probabilities of red wolf quasi extinction and persistence. Finally, we examined whether sterilization can be effective in minimizing introgression while allowing the reintroduced red wolf population to grow. Our results suggest sterilization can be an effective short-term strategy to reduce the likelihood of extirpation in colonizing populations of red wolves. Whether red wolf numbers are increased by sterilization depends on the level of sterilization effort and the acting reproductive barriers. Our results provide an outline of the conditions likely required for successful reestablishment and long-term maintenance of populations of wild red wolves in the presence of coyotes. Our modeling approach may prove generally useful in providing insight into situations involving complex species interactions when data are few.     

Subpopulation structure of caribou (Rangifer tarandus L.) in arctic and subarctic Canada

Effective management and conservation of species, subspecies, or ecotypes require an understanding of how populations are structured in space. We used satellite-tracking locations and hierarchical and fuzzy clustering to quantify subpopulations within the behaviorally different barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus), Dolphin and Union island caribou (R. t. groenlandicus x pearyi), and boreal (R. t. caribou) caribou ecotypes in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. Using a novel approach, we verified that the previously recognized Cape Bathurst, Bluenose-West, Bluenose-East, Bathurst, Beverly, Qamanirjuaq, and Lorillard barren-ground subpopulations were robust and that the Queen Maude Gulf and Wager Bay barren-ground subpopulations were organized as individuals. Dolphin and Union island and boreal caribou formed one and two distinct subpopulation, respectively, and were organized as individuals. Robust subpopulations were structured by strong annual spatial affiliation among females; subpopulations organized as individuals were structured by migratory connectivity, barriers to movement, and/or habitat discontinuity. One barren-ground subpopulation used two calving grounds, and one calving ground was used by two barren-ground subpopulations, indicating that these caribou cannot be reliably assigned to subpopulations solely by calving-ground use. They should be classified by annual spatial affiliation among females. Annual-range size and path lengths varied significantly among ecotypes, including mountain woodland caribou (R. t. caribou), and reflected behavioral differences. An east-west cline in annual-range sizes and path lengths among migratory barren-ground subpopulations likely reflected differences in subpopulation size and habitat conditions and further supported the subpopulation structure identified.     

Can we measure carrying capacity with foraging behavior?

Carrying capacity is one of the most important, yet least understood and rarely estimated, parameters in population management and modeling. A simple behavioral metric of carrying capacity would advance theory, conservation, and management of biological populations. Such a metric should be possible because behavior is finely attuned to variation in environment including population density. We connect optimal foraging theory with population dynamics and life history to develop a simple model that predicts this sort of adaptive density-dependent change in food consumption. We then confirm the model's unexpected and manifold predictions with field experiments. The theory predicts reproductive thresholds that alter the marginal value of energy as well as the value of time. Both effects cause a pronounced discontinuity in quitting-harvest rate that we revealed with foraging experiments. Red-backed voles maintained across a range of high densities foraged at a lower density-dependent rate than the same animals exposed to low-density treatments. The change in harvest rate is diagnostic of populations that exceed their carrying capacity. Ecologists, conservation biologists, and wildlife managers may thus be able to use simple and efficient foraging experiments to estimate carrying capacity and habitat quality.     

The Status and Conservation of the Wolf in Gujarat and Rajasthan, India

Abstract: Populations of wolves were estimated for the states of Gujarat and Rajasthan, India, based on interviews and surveys. The wolf range is continuous. The total number of wolves in Gujarat is between 190 and 270 and in Rajasthan is between 253 and 350. Recommendations for a wolf conservation strategy include: (1) encouraging public support and education, (2) enforcing legal protection, (3) paying compensation for wolf-killed livestock, (4) conducting surveys of wolf populations and research on the dynamics of select populations, (5) protecting breeding habitats, and (6) eradicating feral dogs from wolf conservation areas. It is not too late to save the wolf if such a conservation strategy is implemented immediately.     

Modeling the Effect of Population Dynamics on the Impact of Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease

Abstract:  The European wild rabbit ( Oryctolagus cuniculus ) is a staple prey species in Mediterranean ecosystems. The arrival and subsequent spread of rabbit hemorrhagic disease throughout southwestern Europe, however, has caused a decline in rabbit numbers, leading to considerable efforts to enhance wild rabbit populations, especially through habitat management. Because rabbit population dynamics depend on habitat suitability and changes in habitat structure and composition subsequent to habitat management, I evaluated the effects of population dynamics on the long-term impact of rabbit hemorrhagic disease on rabbit populations. I used an age-structured model with varying degrees of population productivity and turnover and different habitat carrying capacities, and I assumed the existence of a unique, highly pathogenic virus. My results suggest that disease impact may be highly dependent on habitat carrying capacity and rabbit population dynamics, and the model provided some insight into the current abundance of wild rabbits in different locations in southwestern Europe. The highest disease impact was estimated for populations located in habitats with low to medium carrying capacity. In contrast, disease impact was lower in high-density populations in habitats with high carrying capacity, corresponding to a lower mean age of rabbit infection and a resulting lower mortality from rabbit hemorrhagic disease. The outcomes of the model suggest that management strategies to help rabbit populations recover should be based on improving habitats to their maximum carrying capacity and increasing rabbit population productivity. In contrast, the use of strategies based on temporary increases in rabbit density, including vaccination campaigns, translocations, and temporal habitat improvements at medium carrying capacities, may increase disease impact, resulting in short-term decreases in rabbit population density.     

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.     

Conservation Strategies for Species Affected by Apparent Competition

Apparent competition is an indirect interaction between 2 or more prey species through a shared predator, and it is increasingly recognized as a mechanism of the decline and extinction of many species. Through case studies, we evaluated the effectiveness of 4 management strategies for species affected by apparent competition: predator control, reduction in the abundances of alternate prey, simultaneous control of predators and alternate prey, and no active management of predators or alternate prey. Solely reducing predator abundances rapidly increased abundances of alternate and rare prey, but observed increases are likely short‐lived due to fast increases in predator abundance following the cessation of control efforts. Substantial reductions of an abundant alternate prey resulted in increased predation on endangered huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus) deer in Chilean Patagonia, which highlights potential risks associated with solely reducing alternate prey species. Simultaneous removal of predators and alternate prey increased survival of island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) in California (U.S.A.) above a threshold required for population recovery. In the absence of active management, populations of rare woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) continued to decline in British Columbia, Canada. On the basis of the cases we examined, we suggest the simultaneous control of predators and alternate prey is the management strategy most likely to increase abundances and probabilities of persistence of rare prey over the long term. Knowing the mechanisms driving changes in species’ abundances before implementing any management intervention is critical. We suggest scientists can best contribute to the conservation of species affected by apparent competition by clearly communicating the biological and demographic forces at play to policy makers responsible for the implementation of proposed management actions. Estrategias de Conservación para Especies Afectadas por Competencia Aparente     

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.

Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.     

Coexistence between People and Elephants in African Savannas

Abstract: The decline in the range and numbers of elephants as a result of expanding human activity in Africa is recognized as one of the continent's more serious conservation problems. Understanding the relationship between human settlement patterns and elephant abundance is fundamental to predicting the viability of elephant populations. The prevailing model of human-elephant interaction predicts a negative linear relationship between rising human density and declining elephant density at a coarse (national or subcontinental) scale. Using observed elephant densities and human population data, we tested this prediction in a study area of 15,000 km² in northwestern Zimbabwe. The results did not fit a linear model. Elephant and human coexistence occurs at various levels of human density, up to a threshold of human density beyond which elephant populations disappear. This threshold seems to be related to a particular stage in the process of agriculturally transformed land becoming spatially dominant over the natural woodland that constitutes elephant habitat. Within the contexts of conservation and sustainable development in African savannas, investigating spatial relationships between elephant and human abundance should be a priority topic for future research.     

The causes and consequences of partial prey consumption by wolves preying on moose

For a wide range of taxa, partial prey consumption (PPC) is a frequent occurrence. PPC may arise from physiological constraints to gut capacity or digestive rate. Alternatively, PPC may represent an optimal foraging strategy. Assessments that clearly distinguish between these causes are rare and have been conducted only for invertebrate species that are ambush predators with extra-intestinal digestion (e.g., wolf spiders). We present the first strong test for the cause of PPC in a cursorial vertebrate predator with intestinal digestion: wolves (Canis lupus) feeding on moose (Alces alces). Previous theoretical assessments indicate that if PPC represents an optimal foraging strategy and is not caused by physiological limitations, then mean carcass utilization is negatively correlated with mean kill rate and the utilization of individual carcasses is uncorrelated with time between kills. Wolves exhibit exactly this pattern. We explore how the typical portrayal of PPC by wolves has been not only misleading but also detrimental to conservation by promoting negative attitudes toward wolves.     

Potential Spatial Overlap of Heritage Sites and Protected Areas in a Boreal Region of Northern Canada

Abstract:  Under article 8-J of the Convention on Biological Diversity, governments must engage indigenous and local communities in the designation and management of protected areas. A better understanding of the relationship between community heritage sites and sites identified to protect conventional conservation features could inform conservation-planning exercises on indigenous lands. We examined the potential overlap between Gwich'in First Nations' (Northwest Territories, Canada) heritage sites and areas independently identified for the protection of conventional conservation targets. We designed nine hypothetical protected-area networks with different targets for woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ) habitat, high-quality wetland areas, representative vegetation types, water bodies, environmentally significant area, territorial parks, and network aggregation. We compared the spatial overlap of heritage sites to these nine protected-area networks. The degree of spatial overlap (Jaccard similarity) between heritage sites and the protected-area networks with moderate or high aggregation was significantly higher ( p < 0.001) than random spatial overlap, whereas the overlap between heritage sites and the protected-area networks with no aggregation was not significant or significantly lower ( p < 0.001) than random spatial overlap. Our results suggest that protected-area networks designed to capture conventional conservation features may protect key heritage sites but only if the underlying characteristics of these sites are considered. The Gwich'in heritage sites are highly aggregated and only protected-area networks that had moderate and high aggregation had significant overlap with the heritage sites. We suggest that conventional conservation plans incorporate heritage sites into their design criteria to complement conventional conservation targets and effectively protect indigenous heritage sites .     

Lichen Conservation in Heavily Managed Boreal Forests

Lichens are an important component of the boreal forest, where they are long lived, tend to accumulate in older stands, and are a major food source for the threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). To be fully sustainable, silvicultural practices in the boreal forest must include the conservation of ecological integrity. Dominant forest management practices, however, have short‐term negative effects on lichen diversity, particularly the application of herbicides. To better understand the long‐term effects of forest management, we examined lichen regeneration in 35 mixed black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forest stands across northern Ontario to determine recovery following logging and postharvest silvicultural practices. Our forest stands were 25–40 years old and had undergone 3 common sivilcultural treatments that included harvested and planted; harvested, planted, and treated with N‐[phosphonomethyl] glycine (glyphosate); and harvested, planted, and treated with 2,4‐dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4‐D). Forest stands with herbicide treatments had lower lichen biomass and higher beta and gamma diversity than planted stands that were not treated chemically or control stands. In northwestern Ontario, planted stands that were not treated chemically had significantly greater (p < 0.05) alpha diversity than stands treated with herbicides or control stands. Our results show that common silvicultural practices do not emulate natural disturbances caused by wildfires in the boreal forest for the lichen community. We suggest a reduction in the amount of chemical application be considered in areas where lichen biomass is likely to be high and where the recovery of woodland caribou is an objective. Conservación de Líquenes en Bosques Boreales Manejados Intensivamente     

Willow on Yellowstone's northern range: evidence for a trophic cascade?

Reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park in 1995-1996 has been argued to promote a trophic cascade by altering elk (Cervus elaphus) density, habitat-selection patterns, and behavior that, in turn, could lead to changes within the plant communities used by elk. We sampled two species of willow (Salix boothii and S. geyeriana) on the northern winter range to determine whether (1) there was quantitative evidence of increased willow growth following wolf reintroduction, (2) browsing by elk affected willow growth, and (3) any increase in growth observed was greater than that expected by climatic and hydrological factors alone, thereby indicating a trophic cascade caused by wolves. Using stem sectioning techniques to quantify historical growth patterns we found an approximately twofold increase in stem growth-ring area following wolf reintroduction for both species of willow. This increase could not be explained by climate and hydrological factors alone; the presence of wolves on the landscape was a significant predictor of stem growth above and beyond these abiotic factors. Growth-ring area was positively correlated with the previous year's ring area and negatively correlated with the percentage of twigs browsed from the stem during the winter preceding growth, indicating that elk browse impeded stem growth. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade on Yellowstone's northern winter range following wolf reintroduction. We suggest that the community-altering effects of wolf restoration are an endorsement of ecological-process management in Yellowstone National Park.     

Accounting for system dynamics in reserve design.

Systematic conservation plans have only recently considered the dynamic nature of ecosystems. Methods have been developed to incorporate climate change, population dynamics, and uncertainty in reserve design, but few studies have examined how to account for natural disturbance. Considering natural disturbance in reserve design may be especially important for the world's remaining intact areas, which still experience active natural disturbance regimes. We developed a spatially explicit, dynamic simulation model, CONSERV, which simulates patch dynamics and fire, and used it to evaluate the efficacy of hypothetical reserve networks in northern Canada. We designed six networks based on conventional reserve design methods, with different conservation targets for woodland caribou habitat, high-quality wetlands, vegetation, water bodies, and relative connectedness. We input the six reserve networks into CONSERV and tracked the ability of each to maintain initial conservation targets through time under an active natural disturbance regime. None of the reserve networks maintained all initial targets, and some over-represented certain features, suggesting that both effectiveness and efficiency of reserve design could be improved through use of spatially explicit dynamic simulation during the planning process. Spatial simulation models of landscape dynamics are commonly used in natural resource management, but we provide the first illustration of their potential use for reserve design. Spatial simulation models could be used iteratively to evaluate competing reserve designs and select targets that have a higher likelihood of being maintained through time. Such models could be combined with dynamic planning techniques to develop a general theory for reserve design in an uncertain world.