Projecting population trends of endangered amphibian species in the face of uncertainty: A pattern-oriented approach

Amphibian populations have been declining worldwide for the last three decades. Determining the risk of extinction is one of the major goals of amphibian conservation, yet few quantitative models have been developed for amphibian populations. Like most rare or threatened populations, there is a paucity of life history data available for most amphibian populations. Data on the critical juvenile life stage are particularly lacking. Pattern oriented modeling (POM) has been used successfully to estimate life history parameters indirectly when critical data lacking, but has not been applied to amphibian populations. We describe a spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic simulation model developed to project population dynamics of pond-breeding amphibian populations. We parameterized the model with life history and habitat data collected for the endangered Houston toad (Bufohoustonensis), a species for which there is a high degree of uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. During model evaluation, we focused on explicitly reducing this uncertainty, evaluating 16 different versions of the model that represented the range of parametric uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. Following POM protocol, we compared simulation results to four population-level patterns observed in the field: population size, adult sex ratio, proportion of toads returning to their natal pond, and mean maximum distance moved. Based on these comparisons, we rejected 11 of the 16 model versions. Results of the remaining versions confirmed that population persistence depends heavily on juvenile survival, and further suggested that probability of juvenile survival is likely between 0.0075 and 0.015 (previous estimates ranged from 0.003 to 0.02), and that annual male survival is near 0.15 (previous estimates ranged up to 0.43).     

Environmental control and spatial structure in ecological communities: an example using oribatid mites (Acari,Oribatei)

We have recently proposed to use partial canonical ordinations to partition the variation of species abundance data into four additive components: environmental at a local scale, the spatial component of the environmental influence, pure spatial, and an undetermined fraction. By means of an example, we show how to use the information contained in these fractions to provide better insight into the data. In particular, the interpretation is assisted by separately mapping the various canonical axes and relating them to possible generating processes. We derive a general framework for the causal interpretation of the various fractions of this partition, which includes the environmental and the biotic control models, as well as historical dynamics.Daniel Borcard is research associate in animal ecology at Universite de Neuchâtel, Switzerland. He is interested in soil ecology, and presently working on fundamental and applied projects dealing with peat bog ecology and protection, community succession dynamics, as well as effects of agriculture on mite and insect communities. In order to develop the statistical tools necessary for these projects, he also works in collaboration with Pierre Legendre on modeling the spatial structure of ecological communities. $Pierre Legendre is professor of quantitative biology at Universite de Montreal. He is a former Killam Research Fellow (1989–91), and a member of the Royal Society of Canada since 1992. He is the author of some 100 refereed articles, over 250 papers presented at scientific meetings and research seminars, dealing with numerical ecology, community ecology, environmental assessment and spatial analysis, and textbooks (in French and English) on numerical ecology. During the past 5 years, he served as the Secretary-Treasurer of the International Federation of Classification Societies. *We thank Dr V.M. Behan-Pelletier, of Agriculture Canada, for her help in the identification of the Oribatid mites, and Mrs Lucie Fortin and Dr P. Neumann, Universite de Montreal, for their identifications of the Sphagnum species. This research was carried out during tenure of a Postdoctoral Fellowship of the Swiss National Foundation for Scientific Research by D. Borcard, and of a Killam Research Fellowship of the Canada Council by P. Legendre. It was also supported by NSERC grant No. A7738 to P. Legendre. This is contribution No. 392 of the Groupe d'Écologie des Eaux douccs, Universite de Montreal. The authors wish to dedicate this paper with gratitude to Mr Alain Vaudor, computer analyst in Pierre Legendre's laboratory, who has largely contributed to the planning of this research. Mr Vaudor passed away on October 31, 1991, at age 46. The package for multivariate and spatial data analysis that he has produced during his computer scientist career is available to researchers from P. Legendre.     

Effectiveness of multiple release sites in reintroduction of Persian fallow deer

Releasing animals in more than one location may increase or decrease the probability of success of a reintroduction project, yet the question of how many release sites to use has received little attention. We used empirical data from the reintroduction program of the Persian fallow deer (Dama mesopotamica) (Galilee region in northern Israel) in an individual-based spatially explicit simulation model to assess the effects of releasing deer from multiple sites. We examined whether multiple release sites increase reintroduction success, and if so, whether the optimal number of sites for a given scenario can be determined and whether the outcome differs if animals are released alternately (i.e., the location of the release alternates yearly between sites) or consecutively (i.e., one release site is used for several years, then another is used, and so forth). We selected 8 potential release sites in addition to the original site and simulated the release of 180 individuals at a rate of 10 individuals per year in different combinations of the original site and 1-4 additional sites. In our model, releasing animals into the wild at multiple sites produced higher population growth and greater spatial expansion than releasing animals at only one site and a consecutive-release approach was superior to an alternate-release approach. We suggest that through the use of simulation modeling that is based on empirical data from previous releases, managers can make better-informed decisions regarding the use of multiple release sites and greatly improve the probability of reintroduction success.