低碳经济与农业发展思考

大气中碳浓度的升高是导致全球气候变化的主要原因.以低能耗、低排放、低污染为特征的低碳经济是目前人类应对全球气候变化,减缓温室气体排放的根本出路.农业生产与全球气候变化息息相关,农业是温室气体的第二大重要来源,如何减少农业温室气体排放量并探寻减排方法已经成为当务之急.从低碳经济这一热点问题谈起,论述了农业生产与全球气候变化的关系,以及当前农业面临的问题和挑战,提出了发展低碳农业的对策以及具体措施,旨在为呼应低碳经济,应对全球气候变化提供科学决策,促进现代农业由高碳经济向低碳经济转型,实现农业的可持续发展.     

Emergy analysis using US economic input-output models with applications to life cycles of gasoline and corn ethanol

A commonly encountered challenge in emergy analysis is the lack of transformity data for many economic products and services. To overcome this challenge, emergy analysts approximate the emergy input from the economy via a single emergy/money ratio for the country and the monetary price of economic inputs. This amounts to assuming homogeneity in the entire economy, and can introduce serious uncertainties in the results. This paper proposes and demonstrates the use of a thermodynamically augmented economic input-output model of the US economy for obtaining sector-specific emergy to money ratios that can be used instead of a single ratio. These ratios at the economy scale are more accurate than a single economy-wide emergy/money ratio, and can be obtained quickly for hundreds of economic products and services. Comparing sector-specific emergy/money ratios with those from conventional emergy studies indicates that the input-output model can provide reasonable estimates of transformities at least as a stop-gap measure until more detailed analysis is completed. A hybrid approach to emergy analysis is introduced and compared with conventional emergy analysis using life cycles of corn ethanol and gasoline as examples. Emergy and transformity data from the hybrid approach are similar to those from conventional emergy analysis, indicating the usefulness of the proposed approach. In addition, this work proposes the metric of return on emergy investment for assessing product alternatives with the same utility such as transportation fuels. The proposed approach and data may be used easily via web-based software.     

Emergy analysis of the urban metabolism of Beijing

Cities can be modeled as if they were superorganisms with a range of metabolic processes. Research on this urban metabolism can contribute to solving urban environmental problems by revealing details of the metabolic throughput of the system. A key issue is how to find a common basis for measuring the environmental and economic values. By providing a single unified unit, emergy theory integrates the natural and socioeconomic systems and thoroughly evaluates a system's metabolism. We analyzed Beijing's urban metabolic system using emergy synthesis to evaluate its environmental resources, economy, and environmental and economic relations with the regions outside the city during 14 years of development. We compared Beijing's emergy indices with those of five other Chinese cities and of China as a whole to assess Beijing's relative development status. These indices are the emergy self-support ratio (metabolic dependence), the environmental load ratio (metabolic loading), empower density (metabolic pressure), emergy used per person (metabolic intensity per capita), and the monetary equivalent of emergy (emdollars; metabolic intensity). Based on our emergy analysis, Beijing's socioeconomic system is not self-sufficient, and depends greatly on external environmental resources. Its GDP is supported by a high percentage of emergy purchased from outside the city. During the study period, Beijing's urban system showed an increasing dependence on external resources for its economic development. Beijing's loading and pressure on the ecological environment is continuously increasing, accompanied by continuously increasing human emergy consumption. In the future, it will become increasingly necessary to improve Beijing's metabolic efficiency.     

依靠科技进步 发展低碳农业

在全球携手应对气候变暖、减少温室气体排放的背景下,发展低碳经济是解决气候变化与经济发展矛盾的有效途径。通过描述气候变化、固碳减排对粮食安全、土壤碳汇、森林固碳、资源循环利用等影响和促进作用,深入分析发展低碳经济与可持续发展的关系,探讨如何在农业领域内开发高效循环生产体系,从而实现农业生产过程的固碳减排目的。由此,提出发展低碳农业是实现低碳经济的目标之一,它是一个复合技术体系,涉及了绿色农业、循环农业、生态文明、可持续发展理念。必须通过科学技术的突破,改造、提升低碳农业技术,改变农业现有的＂高能耗、高污染＂的生产状况,实现低碳生产、生活方式的转变。最后提出发展现代的低碳农业产业经济的对策和思考。     

中国燃煤电厂碳排放量计算及分析

人类活动造成的温室气体排放已经对自然生态造成了巨大的影响。如果无法有效解决气候变化问题,到2030年将有超过1亿人因此而失去生命,且全球经济增长将削减3.2%。有效地控制和减少温室气体的排放是人类急需解决的问题。目前中国温室气体排放总量已经超越美国成为全球第一大温室气体排放国,中国的能源结构决定了中国燃煤发电是中国CO2主要排放源之一,因此实现燃煤发电碳减排对降低中国碳排放总量,减少温室气体排放具有重要意义。准确地计算燃煤电厂产生的碳排放量是进行碳排放权交易、低碳火电厂在经济上具有可行性,最终实现燃煤电厂碳减排的前提条件之一。本研究根据世界资源研究所提供的计算工具首先界定了本研究对于碳排放计算的范围,其次阐述了不同电厂应针对其使用的燃煤进行工业分析的精细化程度不同而采用不同的计算方法,最后对两组不同机组类型的中国火电厂进行了碳排放量计算和对比分析。根据以上分析得出了大容量、高参数的燃煤发电机组相比小容量发电机组不仅能提高能源利用效率,同时也能相对减少因生产电能而产生的CO2排放。其次,燃煤电厂CO2排放中煤炭固定燃烧占有绝对比例,脱硫及外购电力所占比例较小,但排放的绝对总量并不小。再次,由于大容量、高参数机组与小容量发电机组相比在生产单位电能所消耗的燃煤量更少、其排放的废弃中的CO2浓度相对较高,应此更适合安装碳捕捉系统,有助于提高捕捉效率,降低捕捉CO2的成本。因此,建议在未来建设碳捕捉系统时应优先选择大容量、高参数机组。本研究的创新点在于在上述研究的基础上考虑单个燃煤电厂的煤质、考虑电厂脱硫、外购电力的因素,根据电厂对煤质不同程度的工业分析采用不同的计算方法,目的在于更?     

产业生态系统多尺度能值整合评价方法

能值分析方法为自然环境资源与人类社会、经济的统一评价提供了新的思路,但面对当今产业生态学发展的实践需求,在多尺度整合分析、动态模型构建等方面仍显薄弱,需要与经济学等其他学科相对成熟的分析方法与模型加以整合。文章以能值综合方法为核心介质,从成本分析与效果分析的整合、能值分析与区域经济分析的整合,以及能值分析表与投入-产出矩阵模型的整合三个方面进行了产业生态学的能值整合研究方法的具体构建,以促进能值理论方法与产业生态学研究需求的进一步耦合。     

Development of a low-carbon economy in China

Under the pressures of climate change, many countries are trying to adapt to a low-carbon economy. In this paper, we review the development pattern of the low-carbon economy of major countries and its impact on the world economy. We then argue that economic development and abatement of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China should be balanced. The challenges that China faces should also be considered carefully. It is necessary for China to find an approach to solve the issues of climate change, which should include new technologies and establishing incentive mechanisms and reform-oriented policies. These guidelines can adjust the structure of the economy and energy use, improve energy efficiency, promote the development of alternative and renewable energy, enhance the potential of carbon sinks, and develop advanced technology to perfect a 'Clean Development Mechanism' and sustainable development through international cooperation.     

Ecosystem services as a counterpart of emergy flows to ecosystems

A generic input-state-output scheme has been used to represent ecosystem dynamics. Systemic approaches to ecosystems use functions that are based either on inputs, state or outputs of the system. Some examples of approaches that use a combination of functions have been recently proposed. For example the use of eco-exergy to emergy flow can be seen as a mixed input-state approach; more recently, to connect the state to the output of the ecosystem, the relation of eco-exergy and ecosystems services has been proposed. This paper studies the link between the useful output of an ecosystems and its input through the relation between ecosystem services and emergy flow, in a kind of grey/black box scheme (i.e., without considering the state and the structure of the ecosystem). No direct connection between the two concepts can be determined, but identifying and quantifying the emergy flows feeding an ecosystem and the services to humans coming from them facilitate the sustainable conservation of Nature and its functions. Furthermore, this input-output relation can be established in general by calculating the ratio of the value of the ecosystem services to the emergy flow that supports the system. In particular, the ratio of the world ecosystem services to the emergy flow supporting the entire biosphere has been calculated showing that, at least at the global level, Nature is more efficacious in producing “money” (in form of ecosystem services) than economic systems (e.g., national economies and their GDP).     

中国农田主要温室气体排放特征与控制技术

全球气候变化已成为不争的事实,已经引起了各国科学家和政府的高度重视。人类活动向大气中排放的二氧化碳（CO2）、甲烷（CH4）和氧化亚氮（N2O）等温室气体浓度的增加是导致气候变化的重要原因之一。农田土壤是这三种温室气体的重要来源。文章概述了农田土壤CO2、CH4和N2O三种主要温室气体的排放机制,系统总结了国内对这三种温室气体排放通量的观测研究,提出了相应的减排技术对策,并对目前的研究问题和未来的发展方向作了深入的探讨,以期为控制农田土壤温室气体排放、发展低碳农业提供参考依据。     

北京城市生态系统的能值动态分析

采用能值理论与分析方法,对北京市1990~2001年间的能值结构动态进行了分析,并采用人均能值、能值密度、生态功能潜力、人口基本承载力、能值自给率、能值货币比率、环境负载率、输入能值比等重要能值指标对该时期北京市城市生态系统的能值状况作了详细分析。研究表明,北京城市生态系统正处于较高发展水平,已基本跨入发达国家水平的行列;但高强度、快速发展给本市带来了巨大的生态环境压力,未来北京的可持续能力建设已势在必行。文章也提出了北京城市生态系统可持续发展能力建设的基本方向。     

Modeling the carbon cycle of urban systems

Although more than 80% of carbon dioxide emissions originate in urban areas, the role of human settlements in the biosphere evolution and in global carbon cycling remains largely neglected. Understanding the relationships between the form and pattern of urban development and the carbon cycle is however crucial for estimating future trajectories of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and can facilitate mitigation of climate change. In this paper I review state-of-the-art in modeling of urban carbon cycle. I start with the properties of urban ecosystems from the ecosystem theory point of view. Then I discuss key elements of an urban system and to which degree they are represented in the existing models. In conclusions I highlight necessity of including biophysical as well as human related carbon fluxes in an urban carbon cycle model and necessity of collecting relevant data.     

Numerical modeling as a tool for evaluating the renewability of geothermal resources: the case study of the Euganean Geothermal System (NE Italy)

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - Renewable natural resources are strategic for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the human footprint. The renewability of these resources is a crucial...     

华北平原集约农区种植业生态经济系统的能值分析——以河北沧州为例

从能值的角度出发,以华北平原代表区域——河北省沧州地区2003年统计数据和调查数据为基础,对该地区种植业生态经济系统的能值投入和产出进行首次分析。结果显示:该地区不可更新的工业辅助能占总能值投入的78.5%,可更新的能值投入仅占21.4%(可更新环境资源8.79%、可更新有机12.68%),说明农业生产过渡依赖于外源不可更新辅助能的投入;此外,高系统太阳能值转换率、低净能值产出率和高环境负荷率的特点,表明该地区种植业的科技发展水平比较高,对环境的压力相当大。综合结果说明种植业系统对环境资源的过度利用必然会引起生态环境的破坏。基于此,提出华北平原集约农区种植业生态经济系统可持续发展对策:以优化施肥为基础,合理减少化肥投入为代表,适当降低工业辅助能投入;调整农业增产投入战略,努力解决该地区以水资源短缺为主的作物增产限制因子;改变农业生产中有机能值与无机能值的投入比例,降低系统环境负荷率。     

Understanding Recent Climate Change

Abstract:  The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 °C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most .     

Quantification of energy related industrial eco-efficiency of China

Improving eco-efficiency is propitious for saving resources and reducing emissions, and has become a popular route to sustainable development. We define two energy-related eco-efficiencies: energy efficiency (ENE) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission-related eco-efficiency (GEE) using energy consumption and the associated GHG emissions as the environmental impacts. Using statistical data, we analyze China??s energy consumption and GHG emissions by industrial subsystem and sector, and estimate the ENE and GEE values for China in 2007 as 4.871×10⁷ US$/PJ and 4.26×10⁸ US$/TgCO₂eq, respectively. Industry is the primary contributing subsystem of China??s economy, contributing 45.2% to the total economic production, using 79.6% of the energy consumed, and generating 91.4% of the total GHG emissions. We distinguish the individual contributions of the 39 industrial sectors to the national economy, overall energy consumption, and GHG emissions, and estimate their energyrelated eco-efficiencies. The results show that although ferrous metal production contributes only 3.5% to the national industrial economy, it consumes the most industrial energy (20% of total), contributes 16% to the total industrial global warming potential (GWP), and ranks third in GHG emissions. The power and heat sector ranks first in GHG emissions and contributes one-third of the total industrial GWP, although it only consumes about 8% of total industrial energy and, like ferrous metal production, contributes 3.5% to the national economy. The ENE of the ferrous metal and power and heat sectors are only 8 and 2.1×10⁷ US$/PJ, while the GEE for these two sectors are 9 and 4×10⁴ US$/GgCO₂eq, respectively; these are nearly the lowest ENE and GEE values among all 39 industry sectors. Finally, we discuss the possibility of ecoefficiency improvement through a comparison with other countries.     

Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes

For reducing greenhouse gas emissions, intensity targets are attracting interest as a flexible mechanism that would better allow for economic growth than emissions caps. For the same expected emissions, however, the economic responses to unexpected productivity shocks differ. Using a real business cycle model, we find that a cap dampens the effects of productivity shocks in the economy on all variables except for the shadow value of the emissions constraint. An emissions tax leads to the same expected outcomes as a cap but with greater volatility. Certainty-equivalent intensity targets maintain higher levels of labor, capital, and output than other policies, with lower expected costs and no more volatility than with no policy.     

Accounting for Cadmium: Tracking Emissions of Cadmium From the Global Economy

This paper examines the flow of cadmium through the global economy, with the aim of quantifying emissions of cadmium into the environment as a result of anthropogenic activities. First, a materials balance methodology is presented as the most appropriate means of assessing cadmium emissions from a wide range of anthropogenic sources. This is then applied to the best available data, from a variety of sources, to arrive at estimated flows of cadmium. Results are presented for 10 geo-political world regions and for a range of economic activities including non-ferrous metals production, iron and steel production, combustion of fossil fuels, fertilizer manufacture and use, cement production and the manufacture, use and disposal of cadmium containing products. Initially, this analysis partitions the total flow of cadmium into three major categories: atmospheric emissions, water-borne effluents and solid or bulked waste arisings. the paper then suggests a probable further partition of the initial emissions into different environmental media.     

Accounting for Cadmium: Tracking Emissions of Cadmium From the Global Economy

This paper examines the flow of cadmium through the global economy, with the aim of quantifying emissions of cadmium into the environment as a result of anthropogenic activities. First, a materials balance methodology is presented as the most appropriate means of assessing cadmium emissions from a wide range of anthropogenic sources. This is then applied to the best available data, from a variety of sources, to arrive at estimated flows of cadmium. Results are presented for 10 geo-political world regions and for a range of economic activities including non-ferrous metals production, iron and steel production, combustion of fossil fuels, fertilizer manufacture and use, cement production and the manufacture, use and disposal of cadmium containing products. Initially, this analysis partitions the total flow of cadmium into three major categories: atmospheric emissions, water-borne effluents and solid or bulked waste arisings. the paper then suggests a probable further partition of the initial emissions into different environmental media.     

Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes

For reducing greenhouse gas emissions, intensity targets are attracting interest as a flexible mechanism that would better allow for economic growth than emissions caps. For the same expected emissions, however, the economic responses to unexpected productivity shocks differ. Using a real business cycle model, we find that a cap dampens the effects of productivity shocks in the economy on all variables except for the shadow value of the emissions constraint. An emissions tax leads to the same expected outcomes as a cap but with greater volatility. Certainty-equivalent intensity targets maintain higher levels of labor, capital, and output than other policies, with lower expected costs and no more volatility than with no policy.     

吉林西部盐碱水田区全球变暖潜势研究

为了探讨吉林西部土地整理工程对区域全暖所做贡献,基于实测的水田土壤温室气体数据,进行区域温室气体排放分析,为进一步评估水田开发对全球变暖的影响提供科学依据。以吉林省西部盐碱水田区为研究对象,将野外调查采样和小区试验相结合,采集了水田的0-30 cm表层土壤样品带回进行小区实验。在小区内挖取100 cm×100 cm×50 cm的坑,在土坑底部铺设塑料布后,将从采样点带回的土壤填进坑内灌水,种植水稻,6块样地分别为不同开发年限,其处置模式与前郭当地的水肥管理相同,样地周围挖掘了排水渠。通过静态箱-气相色谱法监测水稻生长期土壤所释放的温室气体 CH4,N2O 和CO2,计算水稻不同生长时期温室气体排放量及贡献率,估算研究区的区域变暖潜势（GWP）,结合30年水田面积变化加权法分析温室气体GWP贡献率。结果表明：水田生长期温室气体排放总量（以CO2气体计）随着开发年限的增加呈递增趋势,水田开发过程中CO2、CH4和N2O各时期温室气体排放的贡献率都有一定变化,CO2气体排放贡献率占主导地位在80%左右,CH4的贡献率16.69%-20.39%,是N2O的14-22倍,水田CH4气体的排放对研究区综合温室效应有较大贡献,水田开发初期N2O气体贡献率较成熟水田相比较高。在水稻生长旺盛期CO2气体贡献率下降明显,CH4气体贡献率显著升高,N2O气体贡献率变化不大,在返青期和成熟期CH4和N2O 2种气体贡献率均较小,其中,除成熟期外新开发水田的CH4气体贡献率均高于成熟水田,在水稻生长发育较快速的分蘖期、拔节孕穗期和抽穗开花期,CO2气体贡献率下降且降幅明显,该阶段CH4气体对温室效应的贡献比重加大,远高于N2O气体。在水稻成熟期,3种温室气体的贡献率与其他时期相比发生较大变化,CH4比 N2O 略有优势,CO2所占比例恢复至95%。?