A methodological framework for integrating computational fluid dynamics and ecological models applied to juvenile freshwater mussel dispersal in the Upper Mississippi River

Interdisciplinary research in hydraulics and ecology for river management and restoration must integrate processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, which presents a challenge to ecohydraulics modelers. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are being more widely used to determine flow fields for ecohydraulics applications. In the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), the mussel dynamics model was developed as a tool for management and conservation of freshwater mussels (Unionidae), which are benthic organisms, imperiled in North America, that are inextricably linked with the hydraulics of river flow. We updated the juvenile dispersal component of the mussel dynamics model by using stochastic Lagrangian particle tracking in a three dimensional flow field output from CFD models of reaches in the UMR. We developed a methodological framework to integrate hydrodynamic data with the mussel dynamics model, and we demonstrate the use of the juvenile dispersal model employed within the methodological framework in two reaches of the UMR. The method was used to test the hypothesis that impoundment affects the relationship of some hydraulic parameters with juvenile settling distribution. Simulation results were consistent with this hypothesis, and the relationships of bed shear stress and Froude number with juvenile settling were altered by impoundment most likely through effects on local hydraulics. The methodological framework is robust, integrates Eulerian and Lagrangian reference frameworks, and incorporates processes over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, from watershed scale hydrologic processes (decades), to reach scale (km) processes that occur over hours or days, and turbulent processes on spatial scales of meter to millimeter and times scales of seconds. The methods are presently being used to assess the impacts of pre- and early post-settlement processes on mussel distributions, including the effects of bed shear stress, and the sensitivity of the location of the host fish when juveniles excyst, on juvenile settling distribution.     

Representing mediating effects and species reintroductions in Ecopath with Ecosim

Ecosystem models play an important role in supporting ecosystem approaches to management. To improve the representation of how ecosystems work, ecosystem models should be able to represent mediating effects (e.g., habitat provision) that species provide to each other as well as species (re)introductions, both common situations that can strongly influence ecosystem dynamics. We examine how such processes can be incorporated into Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), a widely used tool for represent aquatic ecosystems with the potential to support ecosystem-based management. We used the reintroduction of sea otters (Enhydralutris) to the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada as a case study. The model demonstrates how to account for benefits provided by kelp forests by contributing to primary production, increased feeding areas and food availability through prey retention. It also demonstrates how the reintroduction and range expansion of sea otters can be represented in Ecospace, and the implications of these options.     

天然林林龄的模拟估算及案例

林龄是森林生态系统的一个重要特征,具有生态学意义.但是目前生态学调查中对天然林林龄的估算方法有一定缺陷.在特定的环境条件下,森林有着相应的演替过程.已有林窗研究表明.长白山森林是按照一定次序演替,森林的径级结构也是有规律可循的.由于总是缺乏足够的长期系统观测数据,因此作者采用数值模拟作为替代方法.应用校正过的林窗模型模拟0～600 a的森林演替序列,比较对长白山原始天然林的采样的结果,发现目前的林龄最接近400 a.这个估测结果可以从本地区历史资料记载得到印证.     

Impact of the quality of climate models for modelling species occurrences in countries with poor climatic documentation: a case study from Bolivia

The quality of climate models has largely been overlooked as a possible source of uncertainty that may affect the outcomes of species distribution models, especially in the tropics, where comparatively few climatic stations are available. We compared the geographical discrepancies and potential conservation implications of using two different climate models (Saga and Worldclim) in combination with the species modelling approach Maxent in Bolivia. We estimated ranges of selected bird and fern species biogeographically restricted to either humid montane forest of the northern Bolivian Andes or seasonal dry tropical forests (in the Andes and southern lowlands). Saga and Worldclim predicted roughly similar climate patterns of temperature that were significantly correlated. Precipitation layers of both climate models were also roughly similar, but showed important differences. Species ranges estimated with Worldclim and Saga likewise produced different results. Ranges of species endemic to humid montane forests estimated with Saga had higher AUC (Area under the curve) values than those estimated with Worldclim, which for example predicted the occurrence of humid montane forest bird species near Lake Titicaca, an area that is clearly unsuitable for these species. Likewise, Worldclim overpredicted the occurrence of fern and bird species in the lowlands of the Chapare region and well south of the Andean Elbow, where more seasonal biomes occur. By contrast, Saga predictions were coherent with the known distribution of humid montane forests in the northern Bolivian Andes. Estimated ranges of species endemic to seasonal dry tropical forests predicted with Saga and Worldclim were not statistically different in most cases. However, detailed comparisons revealed that Saga was able to distinguish fragments of seasonal dry tropical forests in rain-shadow valleys of the northern Bolivian Andes, whereas Worldclim was not. These differences highlight the neglected influence of climate layers on modelling results and the importance of using the most accurate climate data available when modelling species distributions.     

不同粒径近地表大气尘元素分配规律研究——以成都经济区为例

将不同地貌单元和城市不同功能区的近地表大气尘机械筛分,分析其粒度组成和化学组成特征及其相互关系,以探讨元素在不同粒径大气尘颗粒中的分配规律。研究结果表明:近地表大气尘颗粒粒径主要集中在300~400目(38.5~54μm),其中城市和丘陵地区质量分数最高,达56.596%~68.493%。化学组成上,人为扰动重金属元素,除Pb本底值比较高外,总体上城市高于丘陵和山区;Al2O3、Na2O、SiO2、Ti、Zr等稳定元素总体上,随粒径的减小,元素含量逐渐增大;Mn、P、S等元素,总体上随粒径的减小,元素含量逐渐减小。Pb、Zn、Cr等人为扰动元素,大粒径近地表大气尘元素含量稍大于小粒径元素含量,但小粒径元素含量总体上仍呈现随粒径的减小而逐渐增大的趋势。     

Refining logistic regression models for wildlife habitat suitability modeling—A case study with muntjak and goral in the Central Himalayas, India

High quality habitat suitability maps are indispensable for the management and planning of wildlife reserves. This is particularly important for megadiverse developing countries where shortages in skilled manpower and funding may preclude the use of mathematically complex modeling techniques and resource-intensive field surveys. In this study, we propose a simulation based k-fold partitioning and re-substitution approach to refine and update logistic regression models that are widely used for habitat suitability assessment and modeling. We test the modeling strategy using data from a rapid field survey conducted for habitat suitability assessment for muntjak (Muntiacus muntjak) and goral (Naemorrhaedus goral) in the central Himalayas, India. Results obtained from simulations match expectations in terms of model behavior and in terms of published habitat associations of the investigated species. Qualitative comparisons with predictions from the GARP, MaxEnt and Bioclimatic Envelopes modeling systems also show broad agreement with predictions obtained from the proposed technique. The proposed technique is suggested as a rapid-assessment precursor to detailed habitat studies such as patch occupancy modeling in situations where funds or trained manpower are not available.     

Assessing and testing prediction uncertainty for single tree-based models: A case study applied to northern hardwood stands in southern Québec, Canada

Estimating prediction uncertainty for a single tree-based model is hindered by the complex structure of these models. In this paper, we addressed this issue with a case study applied to northern hardwood stands in Québec, Canada. SaMARE is a stochastic single tree-based model that was designed for these types of stands. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the model can provide a mean predicted value and its confidence limits for some plot-level attributes.The mean predicted values were compared to observed values in terms of bias and accuracy. In addition to these common statistics, we compared nominal coverage of Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals with real (observed) coverage to verify the adequacy of the simulated uncertainty. A comparison was made using several plot-level attributes, which exhibited an increasing discriminative complexity. This complexity ranges from coarse attributes, such as all-species basal area, up to more complex ones, such as basal area for stems of a particular species and with sawlog potential.The results showed that in terms of absolute value, biases were small, but could be relatively high with respect to the average observed value when the discriminative complexity of the attribute increased. The comparison between nominal and real coverage of confidence intervals gave satisfactory results for all-species plot-level attributes. However, for some species-specific attributes, the Monte Carlo-simulated confidence intervals overestimated the real coverage.     

不同利用方式农用地土壤重金属污染状况及其动态变化特征——以广东省徐闻县为例

通过分析广东省徐闻县不同季节香蕉地、菜地、桉树林地和甘蔗地等4种不同利用方式农用地土壤As、Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd重金属含量,应用单项污染指数法和内梅罗综合指数法对土壤重金属污染状况进行评价,并得出其动态变化特征。结果表明,（1）根据重金属单项污染指数可知,所研究的5种重金属中,Cu污染最为严重,4种农用地土壤Cu污染程度大小顺序为菜地〉桉树地〉香蕉地〉甘蔗地;其次是Cd污染,污染程度依次为菜地〉香蕉地〉甘蔗地〉桉树地;菜地受到轻度Zn污染;其他元素含量均未超过国家标准。从重金属综合污染指数来看,菜地受到重金属中度污染,香蕉地、桉树地和甘蔗地均为轻度污染。（2）在不同季节,土壤重金属污染状况差异较大。Cu在4种农用地土壤中的污染指数年内呈递减规律;Cd在菜地和香蕉地中夏季污染指数最低而冬季最高。（3）土壤重金属相关性分析结果表明,Cu与Pb在4种土壤中的相关系数都较高,说明土壤中Cu与Pb同源,主要来自成土母质。菜地中,Zn与碱解N,Cd与有机质在0．05水平上存在显著负相关性,这说明土壤Zn和Cd污染不是来自有机肥,可能主要来自化肥和农药。     

江南丘陵红壤区的农业水资源特征与调控利用——以江西省余江县为例

农业水资源按分布空间分为大气降水、地表水、土壤水和地下水。江南丘陵红壤区的各类水资源特征是:大气降水丰沛而时空分配不均;地表水多而径流、蒸发量大;红壤贮水库容小、深层水多而有效性差;地下潜水较多而承压水少。针对上述特征,应因地制宜通过工程、生物、农艺措施进行水资源调控,针对“四水”进行人工降雨,地表水集蓄,增加土壤深层水、有效水利用和潜水开发等,以蓄丰补欠、趋利避害,提高水资源的利用率。     

Using a fisheries ecosystem model with a water quality model to explore trophic and habitat impacts on a fisheries stock: A case study of the blue crab population in the Chesapeake Bay

Recent calls for the development of ecosystem-based fisheries management compel the development of resource management tools and linkages between existing fisheries management tools and other resource tools to enable assessment and management of multiple impacts on fisheries resources. In this paper, we describe the use of the Chesapeake Bay Fisheries Ecosystem Model (CBFEM), developed using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software, and the Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Model (WQM) to demonstrate how linkages between available modeling tools can be used to inform ecosystem-based natural resource management. The CBFEM was developed to provide strategic ecosystem information in support of fisheries management. The WQM was developed to assess impacts on water quality. The CBFEM was indirectly coupled with the WQM to assess the effects of water quality and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) on blue crabs. The output from two WQM scenarios (1985-1994), a baseline scenario representing actual nutrient inputs and another with reduced inputs based on a tributary management strategy, was incorporated into the CBFEM. The results suggested that blue crab biomass could be enhanced under management strategies (reduced nutrient input) when the effective search rate of blue crab young-of-the-year's (YOY's) predators or the vulnerability of blue crab YOY to its predators was adjusted by SAV. Such model linkages are important for incorporating physical and biological components of ecosystems in order to explore ecosystem-based fisheries management options.