SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant,Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework).     

A comparison of two models with Landsat data for estimating above ground grassland biomass in Inner Mongolia,China

Two models, artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR), were developed to estimate typical grassland aboveground dry biomass in Xilingol River Basin, Inner Mongolia, China. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and topographic variables (elevation, aspect, and slope) were combined with atmospherically corrected reflectance from the Landsat ETM+ reflective bands as the candidate input variables for building both models. Seven variables (NDVI, aspect, and bands 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7) were selected by the ANN model (implemented in Statistica 6.0 neural network module), while six (elevation, NDVI, and bands 1, 3, 5 and 7) were picked to fit the MLR function after a stepwise analysis was executed between the candidate input variables and the above ground dry biomass. Both models achieved reasonable results with RMSEs ranging from 39.88% to 50.08%. The ANN model provided a more accurate estimation (RMSE_r = 39.88% for the training set, and RMSE_r = 42.36% for the testing set) than MLR (RMSE_r = 49.51% for the training, and RMSE_r = 53.20% for the testing). The final above ground dry biomass maps of the research area were produced based on the ANN and MLR models, generating the estimated mean values of 121 and 147 g/m², respectively.     

Modeling the annual thermal regime of lake Ohrid,Yugoslavia, using daily weather data

The time-dependent characteristics of the five weather variables which control the annual thermal response of Lake Ohrid are analyzed in detail. These are daily values for solar radiation, air temperature, humidity, wind speed and cloud cover. A simple numerical model of the lake's thermal response, forced by thermally driven density mixing, is developed and tested using observed thermal profiles for verification. The numerical model successfully reproduces the major features of the lake's thermal regime over a 6 y period from 1972 to 1977, the average root mean square value for the simulated profiles being 1.2°C with extremes of 2.2 and 0.3°C and a standard deviation of 0.4°C.     

三江源区草场生态恶化原因新解

上世纪60年代以来三江源区草场“三化”明显,生态恶化,究其原因,既有自然因素的影响,又有人类活动的作用。通过比较分析有测量记录的气温、降雨和年末牲畜存栏数、采金、挖虫草(Cordycepssinensis)规模的变化及其与草原植被覆盖度变化的关系,文章为人为成因说提供了更为翔实可靠的证据。结论:超载是1957—1979年间、采金子和挖虫草是1980—2004年间草场生态恶化的主要原因。     

On the dynamics of grazing systems in the semi-arid succulent Karoo: The relevance of equilibrium and non-equilibrium concepts to the sustainability of semi-arid pastoral systems

Two long-term mechanistic models of grazing systems in the semi-arid succulent Karoo have been used to study factors that influence vegetation changes, livestock productivity and sustainability of the ecosystem. In this region of low and highly variable rainfall, goats and sheep feed on vegetation comprising perennial shrubs and annuals. A previously published model of the Namaqualand system (the “standard” model) explicitly simulates three guilds of perennial shrubs, a guild of annuals, forage consumption, growth of goats and goat reproductive and survival rates. The model also simulates variable rainfall and predicts that, if no steps are taken to control the goat population, stock numbers will vary widely between years and the population of the different plant guilds will fluctuate. Plots of model output indicate that the system is driven by rainfall. Temporal changes in the relative abundance of each guild vary with different sequences of rainfall having similar long-term mean and variability. A single run of the model may display equilibrial, disequilibrial and threshold behaviour. Thus, the system exhibits complex dynamics. If animal numbers are held constant at the long-term average of variable stock or at the recommended stocking rate then the cover of palatable shrubs decreases and that of toxic plants increases substantially. A “simplified” model based on an aggregated forage variable and equilibrium dynamics is inadequate to describe the behaviour of this system.     

A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.     

Urbanization affects stream ecosystem function by altering hydrology, chemistry, and biotic richness.

Catchment urbanization can alter physical, chemical, and biological attributes of stream ecosystems. In particular, changes in land use may affect the dynamics of organic matter decomposition, a measure of ecosystem function. We examined leaf-litter decomposition in 18 tributaries of the St. Johns River, Florida, USA. Land use in all 18 catchments ranged from 0% to 93% urban which translated to 0% to 66% total impervious area (TIA). Using a litter-bag technique, we measured mass loss, fungal biomass, and macroinvertebrate biomass for two leaf species (red maple [Acer rubrum] and sweetgum [Liquidambar styraciflua]). Rates of litter mass loss, which ranged from 0.01 to 0.05 per day for red maple and 0.006 to 0.018 per day for sweetgum, increased with impervious catchment area to levels of approximately 30-40% TIA and then decreased as impervious catchment area exceeded 40% TIA. Fungal biomass was also highest in streams draining catchments with intermediate levels of TIA. Macroinvertebrate biomass ranged from 17 to 354 mg/bag for red maple and from 15 to 399 mg/bag for sweetgum. Snail biomass and snail and total invertebrate richness were strongly related to breakdown rates among streams regardless of leaf species. Land-use and physical, chemical, and biological variables were highly intercorrelated. Principal-components analysis was therefore used to reduce the variables into several orthogonal axes. Using stepwise regression, we found that flow regime, snail biomass, snail and total invertebrate richness, and metal and nutrient content (which varied in a nonlinear manner with impervious surface area) were likely factors affecting litter breakdown rates in these streams.     

西藏中部草地及农田生态系统的退化及其机制

西藏中部农田，特别是兼具草地与林地两大功能的草地生态系统对区域生态环境具有重要的调节和控制作用。近年来，草地及农田生态系统呈现出整体退化及日趋严重的态势，并逐步成为西藏风蚀沙化、水土流失等最为严重的地区。文章在阐述退化生态系统的内在特征及其环境效应的基础上，就草地及农田生态系统退化的发生机制进行了深入分析。     

A model of rainfall redistribution in terraced sandy grassland landscapes

A simple model of rainfall redistribution within a terraced sandy grassland landscape has been developed. The model assumes that rainfall redistribution is driven by rainfall impulses and is controlled by characteristic field capacity of soils. When the rainfall intensity is large enough to render soil water content greater than its characteristic field capacity, the excessive soil water can drain very quickly by means of large amounts of non-capillary pores of sandy soils or by means of surface runoff. Exponential distribution of rainfall impulses was assumed and tested with measured daily rainfall at two meteorological stations in the sandy grassland area of north China. The model was solved to give the equivalent rainfall at each terrace in the landscape.     

Controls on vegetation structure in Southwestern ponderosa pine forests, 1941 and 2004

Long-term studies can broaden our ecological understanding and are particularly important when examining contingent effects that involve changes to dominance by long-lived species. Such a change occurred during the last century in Southwestern (USA) ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. We used five livestock grazing exclosures established in 1912 to quantify vegetation structure in 1941 and 2004. Our objectives were to (1) assess the effects of historical livestock grazing on overstory structure and age distribution, (2) assess the effects of recent livestock grazing and overstory on understory vegetation, and (3) quantify and explain changes in understory vegetation between 1941 and 2004. In 1941, canopy cover of tree regeneration was significantly higher inside exclosures. In 2004, total tree canopy cover was twice as high, density was three times higher, trees were smaller, and total basal area was 40% higher inside exclosures. Understory species density, herbaceous plant density, and herbaceous cover were negatively correlated with overstory vegetation in both years. Most understory variables did not differ between grazing treatments in 1941 but were lower inside exclosures in 2004. Differences between grazing treatments disappeared once overstory effects were accounted for, indicating that they were due to the differential overstory response to historical livestock grazing practices. Between 1941 and 2004, species density declined by 34%, herbaceous plant density by 37%, shrub cover by 69%, total herbaceous cover by 59%, graminoid cover by 39%, and forb cover by 82%. However, these variables did not differ between grazing treatments or years once overstory effects were accounted for, indicating that the declines were driven by the increased dominance of the overstory during this period. Our results demonstrate that historical livestock grazing practices are an aspect of land-use history that can affect ecosystem development. Grazing history must be considered when extrapolating results from one site to another. In addition, the understory vegetation was more strongly controlled by the ponderosa pine overstory than by recent livestock grazing or by temporal dynamics, indicating that overstory effects must be accounted for when examining understory responses in this ecosystem.     

基于MLP-ANN与Markov Chain的土地利用变化预测方法——以锡林郭勒盟为例

以北方草地典型地区—内蒙古锡林郭勒盟为案例区,在1995年到2000年的土地利用变化与驱动力分析的基础上,利用土地利用转换类型和驱动力模型,采用多层感知人工神经网络模型分析了各种土地利用类型未来的转换潜力;利用马尔可夫链模型,预测了2005和2010年土地利用格局。预测结果显示：高覆盖度草地减少幅度最大,中覆盖度草地减少相对和缓,高、中覆盖度草地的减少造成了未利用地和低覆盖度草地的增加,尤其是前者增加的幅度最大;从空间分布看,高覆盖度草地的减少集中在西北部地区,主要转变为中低覆盖度草地,中覆盖度草地的减少主要集中在西南部地区,其流向主要是以沙化土地为主的未利用地;案例研究表明,多层感知人工神经网络模型与马尔可夫链模型的结合与应用能够在很大程度上预测稳定驱动力作用下的土地利用变化趋势,从而为生态干预提供指导。     

运用能量10%定律恢复浑善达克退化生态系统

运用生态系统能量10%定律,在浑善达克沙地退化生态系统,按照高级营养级能量需求,在实验区域1%的土地上建立了高产高效饲料基地,以向上一营养级(草食动物)提供足够的能量。结果表明,牲畜的压力逐步向高效地(小范围的土地)集中,而大面积的退化草地(99%),在围栏保护后借助自然力逐步恢复。群落生物量、平均高度和总盖度2年后均随恢复时间增加而增加(P<0.05)。植被组成方面,恢复前固定沙地以冷蒿(Artemisiafrigida)、糙隐子草(Cleistogenssquarrosa)和寸草苔(Carexduriuscula)等为主,恢复2年后冰草(Agropyronmichnoi)、木地肤(Kochiaprostrata)等占优势;滩地植被中,羊草(Leymuschinensis)、披碱草(Elymusdahuricus)等逐步取代了灰绿藜(Chenopodiumglaucum)和尖头叶藜(Chenopodiumacumi-natum)等,优质牧草比例提高。生态恢复不仅使自然生态系统得以保护,而且带动了社会经济的发展,项目中的正蓝旗巴音胡舒嘎查牧民,在实验示范以前后,由每年每户投入1万元买草养畜转变为每户得到2万斤优质牧草;幼畜成活率约提高10%;产奶量100%,牧民收入提高了32%。实验表明,高产高效基地建成后,生态系统能量流动趋于稳定,占试验区域71%的退化草地得到了恢复,从而带动了该地的可持续发展。     

A fast Bayesian method for updating and forecasting hourly ozone levels

A Bayesian hierarchical space-time model is proposed by combining information from real-time ambient AIRNow air monitoring data, and output from a computer simulation model known as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (Eta-CMAQ) forecast model. A model validation analysis shows that the model predicted maps are more accurate than the maps based solely on the Eta-CMAQ forecast data for a 2 week test period. These out-of sample spatial predictions and temporal forecasts also outperform those from regression models with independent Gaussian errors. The method is fully Bayesian and is able to instantly update the map for the current hour (upon receiving monitor data for the current hour) and forecast the map for several hours ahead. In particular, the 8 h average map which is the average of the past 4 h, current hour and 3 h ahead is instantly obtained at the current hour. Based on our validation, the exact Bayesian method is preferable to more complex models in a real-time updating and forecasting environment.     

水、氮控制对短花针茅草原气体交换的影响

随着对气候变化日趋关注,人们对生态系统气体交换及其主要影响因素进行了大量研究。短花针茅草原作为荒漠草原的典型代表,是亚洲特有的一种草原类型,是最干旱的草原类型,生态环境异常严酷,系统极度脆弱,稳定性差,在自然和人为干扰下极易退化。以短花针茅（Stipa breviflora）草原为研究对象,通过控制降雨量以及氮素添加对生态系统气体交换进行监测,研究气体交换对降雨量和氮素添加的响应过程,揭示降雨量和氮素添加对生态系统气体交换的影响作用。该文在2012年自然条件下,采用自动CO2通量系统（Li-6400, Li-COR, Lincoln, NE, USA）野外测定短花针茅（Stipa breviflora）草原生态系统气体交换数据,比较研究了增雨施肥（WN）、增雨不施肥（W）、减雨施肥（RN）、减雨不施肥（R）、单独施肥（N）、自然状况（CK）条件下2012年气体交换变化规律。结果表明：整个生长季生态系统净 CO2交换（NEE）、总的生态系统生产力（GEP）、生态系统呼吸值（ER）都呈先升高后降低的趋势,并在生长旺盛期（8月）达到最大值。NEE在N、W处理下有升高,其他处理都降低。ER在N、WN处理下都有升高,其他处理都降低。GEP在W、N、WN处理下都有升高,其他处理都降低。NEE、ER、GEP都是在N处理中达到最大值。     

草地枯落物分解研究进展及展望

草地枯落物是草地生态系统中生物组分枯死后所有有机物质的总称,是草地生态系统重要的组成部分,是除冠层外,大气与矿质土壤层、植物根系层进行物质与能量交换的另一介质,在生态学中起着不可替代的作用。随着西部大开发战略和退耕还林还草工程的实施,大型家畜等草食性动物退出草地生态系统后,枯落物成为草地生态系统物质和能量循环的重要调节枢纽。近年来,随着全球应对气候变化、节能减排和低碳经济所面临的压力,作为全球碳循环的重要组成部分,草地枯落物的研究被越来越多的学者所重视。文章在综述国内外大量文献的基础上,对草地枯落物的概念进行了比较分析,对其进行了准确定义;归纳出了尼龙网袋法、室内分解培养法、现量估算法和同位素法等多种草地枯落物分解方法,并就枯落物分解过程中经常采用的分解率概算模型、时间衰减模型、影响因子关系模型等进行了比较分析,总结出枯落物的分解是由淋溶、自然粉碎和代谢等3个主要作用,碎屑食物链、腐食食物链等2种不同的食物链共同组成的复杂过程。开展长期定位监测、形成统一的研究方法,探索枯落物分解过程中碳循环微观机理,以及影响因子之间的交互作用是未来草地枯落物研究工作的重点。     

三江源区不同建植年代人工草地群落演替与土壤养分变化

研究了了三源区不同建植期人工修复草地在不同演替阶段毒杂草[主要是甘肃马先蒿(Pedicularis kansuensis)]的入侵规律、数量特征,植物群落物种组成、生物苗和草地质最以及土壤养分、微生物活性的变化规律.结果表明,不同建植期人工修复草地植物群落的种类组成、植物功能群组成和群落数量特征存在显著差异.随着演替时间的推移,人工草地群落盖度、高度、物种数、生物最和多样性指数均表现出"V"字型变化规律,杂类草--甘肃马先蒿的数量特征变化尤为明显,在4 a的人工草地群落中开始局部入侵,在5～6 a的人工草地群落中大面积入侵,其入侵速度、入侵面积达到高峰期.土壤的含水量、容重、土壤中有机质、氮素和磷素在演替过程(7 a、9 a草地)中逐渐降低,到一定时期又逐步增加;随着演替的进行,不同建植期人工草地的土壤微牛物生物量碳和酶活性均呈"V"字型,变化.对于退化生态系统的恢复首先是植被恢复,其次是土壤肥力的恢复.土壤有机质等养分的积累、微生物活性的改善不仅能使土壤-植物复合系统的功能得以恢复,同时也能促进物种多样性的形成,有利于人工草地群落稳定性的提高.在试验区尽管植被恢复演替进行得比较缓慢,但从土壤发展的角度看,仍属进展演替.所以,在退化高寒草甸的恢复过程中,若降低和有效控制外界的干扰(如围栏封育),可为退化草地恢复提供繁殖体与土壤环境,实现人工草地逐步向恢复(正向)演替进行.图3表6参34     

内蒙古草地NPP变化及其对气候的响应

植被净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity,NPP)是衡量植物群落在自然环境条件下生产能力的重要指标,NPP的变化直接反映了生态系统对环境气候条件的响应,因此可以作为生态系统功能对气候变化响应的研究指标.本文利用卫星遥感资料和地面气象观测资料,利用光能利用率模型估算了内蒙古地区1982-2003年4-10月草地NPP,并计算了与NPP密切相关的几个气候因子,分析了1982-2003年内蒙古地区草地NPP年际性变化规律、气候因子的年际变化规律,以及草地NPP对主要气候因子的响应关系.结果表明:1982-2003年内蒙古草地生长季的NPP呈波动中增加趋势,NPP的年平均递增率为C0.0036 g·m-2·Gr-1;草地NPP的空间分布与生物温度(BT)及可能蒸散率(PER)呈显著负相关,与降雨量(RAIN)、湿润度(K)及实际蒸散(AE)呈极显著正相关.内蒙古地区,草地NPP受降雨量(RAIN)及生物温度(BT)的影响较大.但NPP的变化受RAIN的影响更为明显;内蒙古地区不同草地类型的NPP变化对气候因子的响应略有不同.     

Behaviour of horses and cattle at two stocking densities in a coastal salt marsh

Livestock grazing has been practiced in salt marshes in the Wadden Sea area since 600 B.C. Currently livestock grazing is also applied for conservation management. However, effects of such grazing management on salt marshes are likely to vary depending on the species of livestock and stocking density due to differences in the behaviour of the animals. Yet, little is known about the behaviour of different livestock species and stocking densities grazing in salt marshes. We studied the grazing behaviour of horses and cattle by focal observation in an experiment with four different grazing treatments on a coastal salt marsh. In all treatments we recorded diet choice, movement and grazing activity, and spatial distribution. Livestock species shared an overlap in diet choice. Yet, horses more often foraged on the short grass Puccinellia maritima, while the cattle diet contained a higher amount of Aster tripolium. Horses travelled longer distances per day and spent more time grazing than cattle. Spatial distribution of cattle was significantly clustered, while horses showed a random distribution utilizing the whole area. Animal behaviour differs between livestock species and stocking densities with respect to diet choice, activity and spatial distribution.     

Direct Effects of Cattle on Grassland Birds in Canada

Effects of grazing on grassland birds are generally thought to be indirect, through alteration of vegetation structure; however, livestock can also affect nest survival directly through trampling and other disturbances (e.g., livestock‐induced abandonment). We extracted data on nest fates from 18 grazing studies conducted in Canada. We used these data to assess rates of nest destruction by cattle among 9 ecoregions and between seasonal and rotational grazing systems. Overall, few nests were destroyed by cattle (average 1.5% of 9132 nests). Nest destruction was positively correlated with grazing pressure (i.e., stocking rate or grazing intensity), but nest survival was higher in more heavily grazed areas for some species. Because rates of destruction of grassland bird nests by cattle are low in Canada, management efforts to reduce such destruction may not be of ecological or economic value in Canada. Efectos Directos del Ganado sobre las Aves de Pastizales en Canadá     

城市生态气象监测评估初步研究与实践——以北京为例

气象条件作为影响生态系统最活跃、最直接的驱动因子,影响着生态系统的质量和人类生存的环境,关系着生态保护和建设的成果,而城市生态系统具有与其他系统不一样的气候特征,目前还未形成一套有关城市的生态气象监测评估方法。基于生态气象学理论,分别从城市气候环境、与气候相关的陆表环境、大气环境、人居环境以及城市高影响天气气候事件等5个方面选择不同的要素和指标开展了城市生态气象监测评估初步研究,并以北京为例,利用2018年国家和区域自动气象站资料、大气成分观测资料、2002—2018年MODIS卫星资料、Landsat及环境一号卫星资料,开展了2018年北京城市生态气象监测评估。监测评估显示,(1)2018年北京城市“热岛”和“干岛”气候特征明显,并在北京二环与五环之间存在一个“冂”形风速低值区。(2)2018年北京陆表生态环境、大气环境、人居环境进一步好转:其中植被覆盖度达61.6%,创2002年以来新高,气象条件贡献率达50%,生态涵养区植被生态质量处于正常偏好的面积比例达93.2%;中心城区陆表温度为2011年以来最低值;重要水源地密云水库、官厅水库水体面积均为2000年以来最大值;气溶胶光学厚度、霾日数、大气静稳指数分别较过去4年平均值下降14%、31%和8%,大气扩散条件偏好,对霾日减少贡献率达21%,外地污染传输对PM2.5贡献达到53%;城市生态冷源较2013年明显增加,城市“热岛”得到缓解。(3)历史罕见的夏季高温闷热、冬季阶段低温、极端强降水以及持续无降水等高影响天气气候事件给城市安全运行和生态环境带来不利影响。综合评估表明2018年北京气象条件总体利于陆表生态环境改善,有利的气候条件提高了生态环境的质量,但城市生态质量仍面临着极端天气气候事件、城市热岛、低风速以及外来大气污染输送等风险。