The influence of spatial and size scale on phylogenetic relatedness in tropical forest communities

The relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and stochastic processes in structuring ecological communities continues to be a central focus in community ecology. In order to assess the role of phylogenetic relatedness on the nature of biodiversity we first quantified the degree of phylogenetic niche conservatism of several plant traits linked to plant form and function. Next we quantified the degree of phylogenetic relatedness across two fundamental scaling dimensions: plant size and neighborhood size. The results show that phylogenetic niche conservatism is likely widespread, indicating that closely related species are more functionally similar than distantly related species. Utilizing this information we show that three of five tropical forest dynamics plots (FDPs) exhibit similar scale-dependent patterns of phylogenetic structuring using only a spatial scaling axis. When spatial- and size-scaling axes were analyzed in concert, phylogenetic overdispersion of co-occurring species was most important at small spatial scales and in four of five FDPs for the largest size class. These results suggest that phylogenetic relatedness is increasingly important: (1) at small spatial scales, where phylogenetic overdispersion is more common, and (2) in large size classes, where phylogenetic overdispersion becomes more common throughout ontogeny. Collectively, our results highlight the critical spatial and size scales at which the degree of phylogenetic relatedness between constituent species influences the structuring of tropical forest diversity.     

Species phylogenetic relatedness, priority effects, and ecosystem functioning

Species immigration history can structure ecological communities through priority effects, which are often mediated by competition. As competition tends to be stronger between species with more similar niches, we hypothesize that species phylogenetic relatedness, under niche conservatism, may be a reasonable surrogate of niche similarity between species, and thus influence the strength of priority effects. We tested this hypothesis using a laboratory microcosm experiment in which we established bacterial species pools with different levels of phylogenetic relatedness and manipulated the immigration history of species from each pool into microcosms. Our results showed that strong priority effects, and hence multiple community states, only emerged for the species pool with the greatest phylogenetic relatedness. Community assembly also resulted in a significant positive relationship between bacterial phylogenetic diversity and ecosystem functions. Interestingly, these results emerged despite a lack of phylogenetic conservatism for most of the bacterial functional traits considered. Our results highlight the utility of phylogenetic information for understanding the structure and functioning of ecological communities, even when phylogenetically conserved functional traits are not identified or measured.     

Functional and phylogenetic diversity as predictors of biodiversity--ecosystem-function relationships

How closely does variability in ecologically important traits reflect evolutionary divergence? The use of phylogenetic diversity (PD) to predict biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning, and more generally the use of phylogenetic information in community ecology, depends in part on the answer to this question. However, comparisons of the predictive power of phylogenetic diversity and functional diversity (FD) have not been conducted across a range of experiments. To address how phylogenetic diversity and functional trait variation control biodiversity effects on biomass production, we summarized the results of 29 grassland plant experiments where both the phylogeny of plant species used in the experiments is well described and where extensive trait data are available. Functional trait variation was only partially related to phylogenetic distances between species, and the resulting FD values therefore correlate only partially with PD. Despite these differences, FD and PD predicted biodiversity effects across all experiments with similar strength, including in subsets that excluded plots with legumes and that focused on fertilization experiments. Two- and three-trait combinations of the five traits used here (leaf nitrogen percentage, height, specific root length, leaf mass per unit area, and nitrogen fixation) resulted in the FD values with the greatest predictive power. Both PD and FD can be valuable predictors of the effect of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning, which suggests that a focus on both community trait diversity and evolutionary history can improve understanding of the consequences of biodiversity loss.     

Importance of species traits for species distribution in fragmented landscapes

Knowledge of the relationship between species traits and species distribution in fragmented landscapes is important for understanding current distribution patterns and as background information for predictive models of the effect of future landscape changes. The existing studies on the topic suffer from several drawbacks. First, they usually consider only traits related to dispersal ability and not growth. Furthermore, they do not apply phylogenetic corrections, and we thus do not know how considerations of phylogenetic relationships can alter the conclusions. Finally, they usually apply only one technique to calculate habitat isolation, and we do not know how other isolation measures would change the results. We studied the issues using 30 species forming congeneric pairs occurring in fragmented dry grasslands. We measured traits related to dispersal, survival, and growth in the species and recorded distribution of the species in 215 grassland fragments. We show many strong relationships between species traits related to both dispersal and growth and species distribution in the landscape, such as the positive relationship between habitat occupancy and anemochory and negative relationships between habitat occupancy and seed dormancy. The directions of these relationships, however, often change after application of phylogenetic correction. For example, more isolated habitats host species with smaller seeds. After phylogenetic correction, however, they turn out to host species with larger seeds. The conclusions also partly change depending on how we calculate habitat isolation. Specifically, habitat isolation calculated from occupied habitats only has the highest predictive power. This indicates slow dynamics of the species. All the results support the expectation that species traits have a high potential to explain patterns of species distribution in the landscape and that they can be used to build predictive models of species distribution. The specific conclusions are, however, dependent on the technique used, and we should carefully consider this when comparing among different studies. Since different techniques answer slightly different questions, we should attempt to use analyses both with and without phylogenetic correction and explore different isolation measures whenever possible and compare the results.     

Maximizing the phylogenetic diversity of seed banks

Ex situ conservation efforts such as those of zoos, botanical gardens, and seed banks will form a vital complement to in situ conservation actions over the coming decades. It is therefore necessary to pay the same attention to the biological diversity represented in ex situ conservation facilities as is often paid to protected‐area networks. Building the phylogenetic diversity of ex situ collections will strengthen our capacity to respond to biodiversity loss. Since 2000, the Millennium Seed Bank Partnership has banked seed from 14% of the world's plant species. We assessed the taxonomic, geographic, and phylogenetic diversity of the Millennium Seed Bank collection of legumes (Leguminosae). We compared the collection with all known legume genera, their known geographic range (at country and regional levels), and a genus‐level phylogeny of the legume family constructed for this study. Over half the phylogenetic diversity of legumes at the genus level was represented in the Millennium Seed Bank. However, pragmatic prioritization of species of economic importance and endangerment has led to the banking of a less‐than‐optimal phylogenetic diversity and prioritization of range‐restricted species risks an underdispersed collection. The current state of the phylogenetic diversity of legumes in the Millennium Seed Bank could be substantially improved through the strategic banking of relatively few additional taxa. Our method draws on tools that are widely applied to in situ conservation planning, and it can be used to evaluate and improve the phylogenetic diversity of ex situ collections. Maximizar la Riqueza Filogenética de los Bancos de Semillas     

Conservation threats and the phylogenetic utility of IUCN Red List rankings in Incilius toads

Phylogenetic analysis of extinction threat is an emerging tool in the field of conservation. However, there are problems with the methods and data as commonly used. Phylogenetic sampling usually extends to the level of family or genus, but International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) rankings are available only for individual species, and, although different species within a taxonomic group may have the same IUCN rank, the species may have been ranked as such for different reasons. Therefore, IUCN rank may not reflect evolutionary history and thus may not be appropriate for use in a phylogenetic context. To be used appropriately, threat‐risk data should reflect the cause of extinction threat rather than the IUCN threat ranking. In a case study of the toad genus Incilius, with phylogenetic sampling at the species level (so that the resolution of the phylogeny matches character data from the IUCN Red List), we analyzed causes of decline and IUCN threat rankings by calculating metrics of phylogenetic signal (such as Fritz and Purvis’ D). We also analyzed the extent to which cause of decline and threat ranking overlap by calculating phylogenetic correlation between these 2 types of character data. Incilius species varied greatly in both threat ranking and cause of decline; this variability would be lost at a coarser taxonomic resolution. We found far more phylogenetic signal, likely correlated with evolutionary history, for causes of decline than for IUCN threat ranking. Individual causes of decline and IUCN threat rankings were largely uncorrelated on the phylogeny. Our results demonstrate the importance of character selection and taxonomic resolution when extinction threat is analyzed in a phylogenetic context.     

Leaf habit and woodiness regulate different leaf economy traits at a given nutrient supply

The large variation in the relationships between environmental factors and plant traits observed in natural communities exemplifies the alternative solutions that plants have developed in response to the same environmental limitations. Qualitative attributes, such as growth form, woodiness, and leaf habit can be used to approximate these alternative solutions. Here, we quantified the extent to which these attributes affect leaf trait values at a given resource supply level, using measured plant traits from 105 different species (254 observations) distributed across 50 sites in mesic to wet plant communities in The Netherlands. For each site, soil total N, soil total P, and water supply estimates were obtained by field measurements and modeling. Effects of growth forms, woodiness, and leaf habit on relations between leaf traits (SLA, specific leaf area; LNC, leaf nitrogen concentration; and LPC, leaf phosphorus concentration) vs. nutrient and water supply were quantified using maximum-likelihood methods and Bonferroni post hoc tests. The qualitative attributes explained 8-23% of the variance within sites in leaf traits vs. soil fertility relationships, and therefore they can potentially be used to make better predictions of global patterns of leaf traits in relation to nutrient supply. However, at a given soil fertility, the strength of the effect of each qualitative attribute was not the same for all leaf traits. These differences may imply a differential regulation of the leaf economy traits at a given nutrient supply, in which SLA and LPC seem to be regulated in accordance to changes in plant size and architecture while LNC seems to be primarily regulated at the leaf level by factors related to leaf longevity.     

Molecular phylogenetic analyses of shallow-water Caribbean octocorals

Octocorals, especially gorgonians, are conspicuous on Caribbean coral reefs, but there is no consensus regarding species relationships. Mitochondrial protein-coding genes [NADH-dehydrogenase subunits 2 (ND2) and 6 (ND6), and mutS homolog (msh1), 1633 bp] from 28 shallow-water species were sequenced to develop the first molecular phylogeny for Caribbean octocorals. The specimens were collected primarily in the Caribbean or off Brazil in 1999-2001. Morphological characters (sclerites and axial ultrastructure) were also examined in order to map them onto the molecular phylogeny. Analyses of both nucleotide and amino acid substitutions using maximum parsimony and likelihood (including maximum-likelihood and Bayesian analysis) generated very similar results, with most nodes having high levels of support. These molecular results were significantly different from the generally accepted classification. Neither Plexauridae nor Gorgoniidae were monophyletic. Plexaurella spp., nominal plexaurids, were basal to the gorgoniids, sharing many morphological characters with them. This corroborates previous findings using secondary metabolites and biosynthetic pathways. The sea fans, Gorgonia spp. and Pacifigorgia spp., as well as the pinnate gorgonians, Muriceopsis flavida and Pseudopterogorgia spp., did not have sea fan or pinnate relatives, suggesting there has been convergent evolution of colony form. Caribbean plexaurids appeared more derived and/or recently evolved according to both morphological and molecular data (e.g. Eunicea spp. and Plexaura spp.). Molecular phylogenetics is a promising approach for reconstructing phylogenetic relationships among octocorals as well as to understand their complex morphology. Electronic Supplementary Material is available if you access this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00227-003-1018-7. On that page (frame on the left side), a link takes you directly to the supplementary material.     

Trends over time in tree and seedling phylogenetic diversity indicate regional differences in forest biodiversity change

Changing climate conditions may impact the short-term ability of forest tree species to regenerate in many locations. In the longer term, tree species may be unable to persist in some locations while they become established in new places. Over both time frames, forest tree biodiversity may change in unexpected ways. Using repeated inventory measurements five years apart from more than 7000 forested plots in the eastern United States, we tested three hypotheses: phylogenetic diversity is substantially different from species richness as a measure of biodiversity; forest communities have undergone recent changes in phylogenetic diversity that differ by size class, region, and seed dispersal strategy; and these patterns are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. Specifically, the magnitude of diversity change across broad regions should be greater among seedlings than in trees, should be associated with latitude and elevation, and should be greater among species with high dispersal capacity. Our analyses demonstrated that phylogenetic diversity and species richness are decoupled at small and medium scales and are imperfectly associated at large scales. This suggests that it is appropriate to apply indicators of biodiversity change based on phylogenetic diversity, which account for evolutionary relationships among species and may better represent community functional diversity. Our results also detected broadscale patterns of forest biodiversity change that are consistent with expected early effects of climate change. First, the statistically significant increase over time in seedling diversity in the South suggests that conditions there have become more favorable for the reproduction and dispersal of a wider variety of species, whereas the significant decrease in northern seedling diversity indicates that northern conditions have become less favorable. Second, we found weak correlations between seedling diversity change and latitude in both zones, with stronger relationships apparent in some ecoregions. Finally, we detected broadscale seedling diversity increases among species with longer-distance dispersal capacity, even in the northern zone, where overall seedling diversity declined. The statistical power and geographic extent of such analyses will increase as data become available over larger areas and as plot measurements are repeated at regular intervals over a longer period of time.     

Predicting Extinction Risk of Brazilian Atlantic Forest Angiosperms

Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species‐level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular‐based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource‐limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non‐phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread. Predicción del Riesgo de Extinción de Angiospermas del Bosque Atlántico Brasileño     

Bridging gaps in demographic analysis with phylogenetic imputation

Phylogenetically informed imputation methods have rarely been applied to estimate missing values in demographic data but may be a powerful tool for reconstructing vital rates of survival, maturation, and fecundity for species of conservation concern. Imputed vital rates could be used to parameterize demographic models to explore how populations respond when vital rates are perturbed. We used standardized vital rate estimates for 50 bird species to assess the use of phylogenetic imputation to fill gaps in demographic data. We calculated imputation accuracy for vital rates of focal species excluded from the data set either singly or in combination and with and without phylogeny, body mass, and life-history trait data. We used imputed vital rates to calculate demographic metrics, including generation time, to validate the use of imputation in demographic analyses. Covariance among vital rates and other trait data provided a strong basis to guide imputation of missing vital rates in birds, even in the absence of phylogenetic information. Mean NRMSE for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 except when no vital rates were available or for vital rates with high phylogenetic signal (Pagel's λ > 0.8). In these cases, including body mass and life-history trait data compensated for lack of phylogenetic information: mean normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) for null and phylogenetic models differed by <0.01 for adult survival and <0.04 for maturation rate. Estimates of demographic metrics were sensitive to the accuracy of imputed vital rates. For example, mean error in generation time doubled in response to inaccurate estimates of maturation time. Accurate demographic data and metrics, such as generation time, are needed to inform conservation planning processes, for example through International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessments and population viability analysis. Imputed vital rates could be useful in this context but, as for any estimated model parameters, awareness of the sensitivities of demographic model outputs to the imputed vital rates is essential.     

Untested assumptions about within-species sample size and missing data in interspecific studies

Phylogenetic comparative studies rely on species-specific data that often contain missing values and/or differ in sample size among species. These phenomena may violate statistical assumptions about the non-random variance component in sampling effort. A major reason why this assumption is often not fulfilled is because the probability of being sampled (i.e., being captured or observed) may depend on species-specific characteristics. Here, we test this assumption by using information on within-species sample sizes and missing data from five independent comparative datasets of European birds. First, we show that the two estimates of data availability (missing values and within-species sample size) are positively correlated and are associated with research effort in general (the number of papers published). Second, we demonstrate biologically meaningful relationships between data availability and phenotypic traits. For example, population size, risk-taking, and habitat specialization independently predicted within-species sample size. The key determinants of missing data were population size and distribution range. However, data availability was not structured by phylogenetic relationships. These results indicate that the accuracy of sampling is repeatable and distributed non-randomly among species, as several species-specific attributes determined the probability of observation. Therefore, data availability seems to be a species-specific trait that can be shaped by ecology, life history, and behavior. Such relationships raise issues about non-random sampling, which requires attention in comparative studies.     

Modeling the Persistence of Small Populations of Strongly Interdependent Species: Figs and Fig Wasps

Conservation problems are usually studied at the population or ecosystem levels. Formulating predictive theory for the domain in between has been difficult. Fig trees and their pollinating wasps, principally tropical groups of organisms, form pairs of obligate mutualists that provide unique opportunities for studying the influence of species interactions on the survival of small populations. Survival of each partner depends on that of the associated species. The pollinator population can be maintained only if figs are produced year-round. Because fig trees flower synchronously at the individual level, wasps have to locate a new individual host tree at each generation. We describe results of simulation models estimating the minimum number of trees required to maintain a wasp population using two levels of the criteria: (1) different probability of survival (50% and 99%) and (2) different time of survival (5 or 1000 years). We also examined how these different estimates are sensitive to differences in the seasonality of flowering period and in the length of the period of female receptivity in figs. Such estimates can be used to understand the potential effects of the reduction of fig population size via fragmentation. Unlike most studies on the effect of low population size on population viability, our paper focuses on maintenance of a biotic interaction, rather than on single-species dynamics. The biotic interaction on which we focus is important because figs in many tropical ecosystems may be keystone resources for frugivores that are in turn essential seed dispersal agents for other plants.     

Selectivity in Mammalian Extinction Risk and Threat Types: a New Measure of Phylogenetic Signal Strength in Binary Traits

Abstract: The strength of phylogenetic signal in extinction risk can give insight into the mechanisms behind species’ declines. Nevertheless, no existing measure of phylogenetic pattern in a binary trait, such as extinction‐risk status, measures signal strength in a way that can be compared among data sets. We developed a new measure for phylogenetic signal of binary traits, D, which simulations show gives robust results with data sets of more than 50 species, even when the proportion of threatened species is low. We applied D to the red‐list status of British birds and the world's mammals and found that the threat status for both groups exhibited moderately strong phylogenetic clumping. We also tested the hypothesis that the phylogenetic pattern of species threatened by harvesting will be more strongly clumped than for those species threatened by either habitat loss or invasive species because the life‐history traits mediating the effects of harvesting show strong evolutionary pattern. For mammals, our results supported our hypothesis; there was significant but weaker phylogenetic signal in the risk caused by the other two drivers (habitat loss and invasive species). We conclude that D is likely to be a useful measure of the strength of phylogenetic pattern in many binary traits.     

Current Constraints and Future Directions in Estimating Coextinction

Abstract: Coextinction is a poorly quantified phenomenon, but results of recent modeling suggest high losses to global biodiversity through the loss of dependent species when hosts go extinct. There are critical gaps in coextinction theory, and we outline these in a framework to direct future research toward more accurate estimates of coextinction rates. Specifically, the most critical priorities include acquisition of more accurate host data, including the threat status of host species; acquisition of data on the use of hosts by dependent species across a wide array of localities, habitats, and breadth of both hosts and dependents; development of models that incorporate correlates of nonrandom host and dependent extinctions, such as phylogeny and traits that increase extinction‐proneness; and determination of whether dependents are being lost before their hosts and adjusting models accordingly. Without synergistic development of better empirical data and more realistic models to estimate the number of cothreatened species and coextinction rates, the contribution of coextinction to global declines in biodiversity will remain unknown and unmanaged.     

Flying foxes cease to function as seed dispersers long before they become rare

Rare species play limited ecological roles, but particular behavioral traits may predispose species to become functionally extinct before becoming rare. Flying foxes (Pteropodid fruit bats) are important dispersers of large seeds, but their effectiveness is hypothesized to depend on high population density that induces aggressive interactions. In a Pacific archipelago, we quantified the proportion of seeds that flying foxes dispersed beyond the fruiting canopy, across a range of sites that differed in flying fox abundance. We found the relationship between ecological function (seed dispersal) and flying fox abundance was nonlinear and consistent with the hypothesis. For most trees in sites below a threshold abundance of flying foxes, flying foxes dispersed < 1% of the seeds they handled. Above the threshold, dispersal away from trees increased to 58% as animal abundance approximately doubled. Hence, flying foxes may cease to be effective seed dispersers long before becoming rare. As many species' populations decline worldwide, identifying those with threshold relationships is an important precursor to preservation of ecologically effective densities.     

Testing the metabolic theory of ecology: allometric scaling exponents in mammals

Many fundamental traits of species measured at different levels of biological organization appear to scale as a power law to body mass (M) with exponents that are multiples of 1/4. Recent work has united these relationships in a "metabolic theory of ecology" (MTE) that explains the pervasiveness of quarter-power scaling by its dependence on basal metabolic rate (B), which scales as M(0.75). Central to the MTE is theory linking the observed -0.25 scaling of maximum population growth rate (rm) and body mass to the 0.75 scaling of metabolic rate and body mass via relationships with age at first reproduction (alpha) derived from a general growth model and demographic theory. We used this theory to derive two further predictions: that age at first reproduction should scale inversely to mass-corrected basal metabolic rate alpha infinity (B/M)(-l) such that rm infinity (B/M)1. We then used phylogenetic generalized least squares and model selection methods to test the predicted scaling relationships using data from 1197 mammalian species. There was a strong phylogenetic signal in these data, highlighting the need to account for phylogeny in allometric studies. The 95% confidence intervals included, or almost included, the scaling exponent predicted by MTE for B infinity M(0.75), rm infinity M(-0.25), and rm infinity alpha(-1), but not for alpha infinity M(0.25) or the two predictions that we generated. Our results highlight a mismatch between theory and observation and imply that the observed -0.25 scaling of maximum population growth rate and body mass does not arise via the mechanism proposed in the MTE.     

High intervality explained by phylogenetic constraints in host-parasite webs

The finding of invariant structures in species interaction webs is of central importance for ecology, with the greatest challenge remaining the elucidation of the processes governing these universal web patterns. Here we quantify the degree of intervality of seven fish-metazoan and 33 mammal-flea webs, i.e., the number of irreducible gaps in parasite diets along the host spectrum, and then challenge the idea that some invariant structures may emerge in host-parasite webs. Using a null model of random links between parasite and host species we find that empirical host-parasite webs exhibit a strong bias toward contiguity of parasite diet, i.e., toward intervality. Going one step further, we demonstrate that a null model with phylogenetic constraints on host-parasite links produced webs very similar to empirical ones, particularly when phylogenetic constraints occur at the family level, that is, when two hosts from the same family are more likely to be infected than two random hosts. In addition, we propose a new standardized measure of intervality which describes a novel "facet" of natural networks as it is independent of connectance or web size. We suggest using this measure as a surrogate of web maturity or saturation as phylogenetic constraints can drive webs toward intervality.     

A structural equation model to integrate changes in functional strategies during old-field succession

From a functional perspective, changes in abundance, and ultimately species replacement, during succession are a consequence of integrated suites of traits conferring different relative ecological advantages as the environment changes over time. Here we use structural equations to model the interspecific relationships between these integrated functional traits using 34 herbaceous species from a Mediterranean old-field succession and thus quantify the notion of a plant strategy. We measured plant traits related to plant vegetative and reproductive size, leaf functioning, reproductive phenology, seed mass, and production on 15 individuals per species monitored during one growing season. The resulting structural equation model successfully accounts for the pattern of trait covariation during the first 45 years post-abandonment using just two forcing variables: time since site abandonment and seed mass; no association between time since field abandonment and seed mass was observed over these herbaceous stages of secondary succession. All other predicted traits values are determined by these two variables and the cause-effect linkage between them. Adding pre-reproductive vegetative mass as a third forcing variable noticeably increased the predictive power of the model. Increasing the time after abandonment favors species with increasing life span and pre-reproductive biomass and decreasing specific leaf area. Allometric coefficients relating vegetative and reproductive components of plant size were in accordance with allometry theory. The model confirmed the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. Maximum plant height and seed mass were major determinants of reproductive phenology. Our results show that beyond verbal conceptualization, plant ecological strategies can be quantified and modeled.     

Temporal turnover in the composition of tropical tree communities: functional determinism and phylogenetic stochasticity

The degree to which turnover in biological communities is structured by deterministic or stochastic factors and the identities of influential deterministic factors are fundamental, yet unresolved, questions in ecology. Answers to these questions are particularly important for projecting the fate of forests with diverse disturbance histories worldwide. To uncover the processes governing turnover we use species-level molecular phylogenies and functional trait data sets for two long-term tropical forest plots with contrasting disturbance histories: one forest is older-growth, and one was recently disturbed. Having both phylogenetic and functional information further allows us to parse out the deterministic influences of different ecological filters. With the use of null models we find that compositional turnover was random with respect to phylogeny on average, but highly nonrandom with respect to measured functional traits. Furthermore, as predicted by a deterministic assembly process, the older-growth and disturbed forests were characterized by less than and greater than expected functional turnover, respectively. These results suggest that the abiotic environment, which changes due to succession in the disturbed forest, strongly governs the temporal dynamics of disturbed and undisturbed tropical forests. Predicting future changes in the composition of disturbed and undisturbed forests may therefore be tractable when using a functional-trait-based approach.