Modelling coral reef ecosystems with limited observational data

Ecosystem models represent potentially powerful tools for coral reef ecosystem managers. They can provide insight into ecosystem dynamics not achievable through alternative means allowing coral reef managers to assess the potential outcome of any given management decision. One of the main limitations in the applicability of ecosystem models is that they often require detailed empirical data and this can restrict their applicability to ecosystems that are either currently well studied or have the resources available to collect the required data. This study describes the development of a coral reef ecosystem model that can be calibrated to an ecosystem with limited empirical data. Based on the assumption that coral reef ecological structure is generic across all tropical coral reefs and that the magnitude of the interactions between ecological components is reef specific, the dynamics of the ecosystem can be replicated based on limited empirical data. The model successfully replicated the dynamics of three individual reef systems including an inshore and oceanic reef within the Great Barrier Reef and a Caribbean reef system. It highlighted the importance of understanding the specific dynamics of a given reef and that a positive management intervention in one system may result in a negative outcome for another. The model was also used to assess the importance of various interactions within coral reef ecosystems. It identified the interactions between hard corals and other non-algal benthic components as being an important (but currently understudied) facet of coral reef ecology. The development of this modelling approach provides access to ecosystem modelling tools for coral reef managers previously excluded due to a lack of resources or technical expertise.     

The Wicked Problem of China's Disappearing Coral Reefs

We examined the development of coral reef science and the policies, institutions, and governance frameworks for management of coral reefs in China in order to highlight the wicked problem of preserving reefs while simultaneously promoting human development and nation building. China and other sovereign states in the region are experiencing unprecedented economic expansion, rapid population growth, mass migration, widespread coastal development, and loss of habitat. We analyzed a large, fragmented literature on the condition of coral reefs in China and the disputed territories of the South China Sea. We found that coral abundance has declined by at least 80% over the past 30 years on coastal fringing reefs along the Chinese mainland and adjoining Hainan Island. On offshore atolls and archipelagos claimed by 6 countries in the South China Sea, coral cover has declined from an average of >60% to around 20% within the past 10–15 years. Climate change has affected these reefs far less than coastal development, pollution, overfishing, and destructive fishing practices. Ironically, these widespread declines in the condition of reefs are unfolding as China's research and reef‐management capacity are rapidly expanding. Before the loss of corals becomes irreversible, governance of China's coastal reefs could be improved by increasing public awareness of declining ecosystem services, by providing financial support for training of reef scientists and managers, by improving monitoring of coral reef dynamics and condition to better inform policy development, and by enforcing existing regulations that could protect coral reefs. In the South China Sea, changes in policy and legal frameworks, refinement of governance structures, and cooperation among neighboring countries are urgently needed to develop cooperative management of contested offshore reefs. El Problema Malvado de la Desaparición de los Arrecifes de Coral en China     

The impact of exploiting grazers (Scaridae) on the dynamics of Caribbean coral reefs.

Coral reefs provide a number of ecosystem services including coastal defense from storms, the generation of building materials, and fisheries. It is increasingly clear that the management of reef resources requires an ecosystem approach in which extractive activities are weighed against the needs of the ecosystem and its functions rather than solely those of the fishery. Here, I use a spatially explicit simulation model of a Caribbean coral reef to examine the ecosystem requirements for grazing which is primarily conducted by parrotfishes (Scaridae). The model allows the impact of fishing grazers to be assessed in the wider context of other ecosystem processes including coral-algal competition, hurricanes, and mass extinction of the herbivorous urchin Diadema antillarum. Using a new analytical model of scarid grazing, it is estimated that parrotfishes can only maintain between 10% and 30% of a structurally complex forereef in a grazed state. Predictions from this grazing model were then incorporated into a broader simulation model of the ecosystem. Simulations predict that scarid grazing is unable to maintain high levels of coral cover (> or = 30%) when severe hurricanes occur on a decadal basis, such as occurs in parts of the northern Caribbean. However, reefs can withstand such intense disturbance when grazing is undertaken by both scarids and the urchin Diadema. Scarid grazing is predicted to allow recovery from hurricanes when their incidence falls to 20 years or less (e.g., most of Central and South America). Sensitivity analyses revealed that scarid grazing had the most acute impact on model behavior, and depletion led to the emergence of a stable, algal-dominated community state. Under conditions of heavy grazer depletion, coral cover was predicted to decline rapidly from an initial level of 30% to less than 1% within 40 years, even when hurricane frequency was low at 60 years. Depleted grazers caused a population bottleneck in juvenile corals in which algal overgrowth caused elevated levels of postsettlement mortality and resulted in a bimodal distribution of coral sizes. Several new hypotheses were generated including a region-wide change in the spatial heterogeneity of coral reefs following extinction of Diadema. The management of parrotfishes on Caribbean reefs is usually approached implicitly through no-take marine reserves. The model predicts that depletion of grazers in nonreserve areas can severely limit coral accretion. Other studies have shown that low coral accretion can reduce the structural complexity and therefore quality of the reef habitat for many organisms. A speculative yet rational inference from the model is that failure to manage scarid populations outside reserves will have a profoundly negative impact on the functioning of the reserve system and status of non-reserve reefs.     

ReefBahia, an integrated GIS approach for coral reef conservation in Bahia, Brazil

Coral reefs around the world are facing serious threats. These fragile ecosystems are in need for conservation. The coastal state of Bahia hosts the most extensive and richest area of coral reefs in the South Atlantic Ocean. Assessment, planning and management of coral reef ecosystems are particularly challenging tasks. This work shows how the creation of a GIS improves the process of management, monitoring and conservation of the Bahian reef environments The initial data input started by the vectorization of 1) bathymetric data from the Bureau of Hydrography and Navigation (DHN), 2) shoreline and mangrove areas from Landsat 7 ETM + images, 3) near surface reefs from Quickbird images, and 4) coastal and marine protected areas of federal, state and local administrations. Geological, physical, biological and social information was then included in order to create a suitable marine GIS for conservation aims. The data includes information on sediment granulometry and transport patterns, rocky substrate outcrops, sea surface temperature, wave direction, rain precipitation, major contributing river discharge, artisanal fishery, benthic cover and bleaching data. ReefBahia GIS has provided essential information for a better understanding of coral reefs of the state of Bahia geological and ecological characteristics such as mapping, representation, connectivity and biodiversity of coral reefs, geological facies, Quaternary sedimentation, numeric modeling of wave refraction and monitoring of bleaching events.     

Variation in benthic communities of eastern Caribbean coral reefs in relation to surface sediment composition

The effects of sedimentation on coral reefs are commonly studied at local scales, but larger-scale patterns have been elusive, making it difficult to determine the role of sedimentation in region-wide changes in these ecosystems. We examined the relationships between characteristics of reef-associated surface sediment and benthic composition of 22 reefs around 11 islands of the eastern Caribbean. The terrigenous fraction in surface sediment increased with proximity to a clear source of sediment input. The percent cover of live coral, macroalgae, and turf algae decreased with higher terrigenous sediment fraction, while sponge cover increased. Sites with sediment containing high and low terrigenous fraction differed in coral species assemblages. In particular, the cover of Montastraea annularis complex decreased with increasing terrigenous sediment fraction. The proportion of fine-grained sediment had no effect on benthic composition. These results suggest that sedimentation may play a role in shaping coral reef communities at a regional scale.     

Modelling the distribution and ecology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Trichosolen</Emphasis> blooms on coral reefs worldwide

Worldwide blooms of the green alga Trichosolen have been reported on damaged coral reefs following catastrophic events. However, the global distribution of Trichosolen and the factors triggering such blooms remained elusive because of a paucity of occurrence records. This study presents a presence-only niche modelling approach to map the potential distribution and delineate bloom risk areas as well as to identify environmental response optima for non-blooming occurrences and blooms. The modelled suitability map revealed a pantropical to subtropical distribution, while high suitability values delineated bloom risk areas including important tropical reef systems where Trichosolen has not yet been reported from. While both blooms and non-bloom occurrences show a strong preference for high temperatures, blooms responded better to broader nutrient ranges than non-blooms, suggesting the importance of sudden nutrient inputs during catastrophic events in the formation of blooms.     

Appraisal of visual assessments of habitat complexity and benthic composition on coral reefs

Visual assessments of topographic habitat structure and benthos on coral reefs were appraised using quantitative data collected from 16 replicate surveys within each of 21 sites on Seychelles reefs. Results from visual assessments of reef benthos were similar to those obtained using techniques frequently used to assess benthic complexity and composition. Visual estimates of habitat topography were correlated with rugosity, reef height and holes of 10–70 cm diameter, whilst visual estimates of benthic composition were very similar to those obtained from line intercept transects. Visual estimates of topography correlated strongly with species richness of fish communities and explained 42% of the variation in these data. The relationship between visual estimates of topography and species richness is strongest with fish 10–30 cm total length (TL), abundance of fish within this size category also correlating positively with topographic visual assessments. Visual techniques are prone to observer bias, however with regular training they can be used to quickly provide a reliable and effective means of assessing habitat complexity and benthos on coral reefs.     

Experimental Assessment of Coral Reef Rehabilitation Following Blast Fishing

Abstract:  Illegal fishing with explosives has damaged coral reefs throughout Southeast Asia. In addition to killing fish and other organisms, the blasts shatter coral skeletons, leaving fields of broken rubble that shift in the current, abrading or burying new coral recruits, and thereby slowing or preventing reef recovery. Successful restoration and rehabilitation efforts can contribute to coral reef conservation. We used field experiments to assess the effectiveness of different low-cost methods for coral reef rehabilitation in Komodo National Park (KNP), Indonesia. Our experiments were conducted at three different spatial scales. At a scale of 1 × 1 m plots, we tested three different rehabilitation methods: rock piles, cement slabs, and netting pinned to the rubble. Significantly more corals per square meter grew on rocks, followed by cement, netting, and untreated rubble, although many plots were scattered by strong water current or buried by rubble after 2.5 years. To test the benefits of the most successful treatment, rocks, at more realistic scales, we established 10 × 10 m plots of rock piles at each of our nine sites in 2000. Three years after installation, coverage by hard corals on the rocks continued to increase, although rehabilitation in high current areas remained the most difficult. In 2002 rehabilitation efforts in KNP were increased over 6000 m² to test four rock pile designs at each of four rubble field sites. Assuming that there is an adequate larval supply, using rocks for simple, low-budget, large-scale rehabilitation appears to be a viable option for restoring the structural foundation of damaged reefs.     

A geological perspective on the degradation and conservation of western Atlantic coral reefs

Continuing coral‐reef degradation in the western Atlantic is resulting in loss of ecological and geologic functions of reefs. With the goal of assisting resource managers and stewards of reefs in setting and measuring progress toward realistic goals for coral‐reef conservation and restoration, we examined reef degradation in this region from a geological perspective. The importance of ecosystem services provided by coral reefs—as breakwaters that dissipate wave energy and protect shorelines and as providers of habitat for innumerable species—cannot be overstated. However, the few coral species responsible for reef building in the western Atlantic during the last approximately 1.5 million years are not thriving in the 21st century. These species are highly sensitive to abrupt temperature extremes, prone to disease infection, and have low sexual reproductive potential. Their vulnerability and the low functional redundancy of branching corals have led to the low resilience of western Atlantic reef ecosystems. The decrease in live coral cover over the last 50 years highlights the need for study of relict (senescent) reefs, which, from the perspective of coastline protection and habitat structure, may be just as important to conserve as the living coral veneer. Research is needed to characterize the geological processes of bioerosion, reef cementation, and sediment transport as they relate to modern‐day changes in reef elevation. For example, although parrotfish remove nuisance macroalgae, possibly promoting coral recruitment, they will not save Atlantic reefs from geological degradation. In fact, these fish are quickly nibbling away significant quantities of Holocene reef framework. The question of how different biota covering dead reefs affect framework resistance to biological and physical erosion needs to be addressed. Monitoring and managing reefs with respect to physical resilience, in addition to ecological resilience, could optimize the expenditure of resources in conserving Atlantic reefs and the services they provide.     

Development of rapid,cost effective coral survey techniques: tools for management and conservation planning

Coral reefs are highly dynamic and productive marine ecosystems, providing habitat and refuge for an enormous number of species including fish, invertebrates and algae. With increased anthropogenic pressures and global climate change, many coral reefs are rapidly declining. Currently, there is limited knowledge on condition and community assemblage composition of shallow fringing coral reefs along the south-eastern coast of Queensland, Australia. With increased demand to determine existence of coastal fringing reefs by National Regional Management groups, a rapid cost effective method to determine reef composition and condition was required. The aim of this study was to determine the benthic structure and extent of two small coastal fringing reefs (Hummock Hill Reef and Stringers Reef) along the Southern Great Barrier Reef. Reef substrate assessments were carried out using a rapid assessment technique and a Point Intercept Method (PIM). The data were analysed and classified using a Geographic Information System (GIS). Percent substrate cover was calculated using a visual basic image analysis program. The Point intercept method showed higher accuracy over the rapid assessment technique (up to 15–40% difference) and was thus deemed a more suitable classification tool for reefs with high structural complexity and heterogeneity. This study focused on piloting a rapid, cost effective Point Intercept Technique using random point count methodology to document coral benthic habitat and extent over a commonly used rapid assessment method as a tool for reef coastal management and conservation. The two techniques were compared and substrate classification success, limitations and errors were discussed.     

Coral mortality following extreme low tides and high solar radiation

Extreme tidal events are one of the most predictable natural disturbances in marine benthic habitats and are important determinants of zonation patterns in intertidal benthic communities. On coral reefs, spring low tides are recurrent disturbances, but are rarely reported to cause mass mortality. However, in years when extremely low tides coincide with high noon irradiances, they have the potential to cause widespread damage. Here, we report on such an event on a fringing coral reef in the central Great Barrier Reef (Australia) in September 2005. Visual surveys of colony mortality and bleaching status of more than 13,000 corals at 14 reef sites indicated that most coral taxa at wave-protected sites were severely affected by the event. Between 40 and 75% of colonies in the major coral taxa (Acropora, Porites, Faviidae, Mussidae and Pocilloporidae) were either bleached or suffered partial mortality. In contrast, corals at wave-exposed sites were largely unaffected (<1% of the corals were bleached), as periodic washing by waves prevented desiccation. Surveys along a 1–9 m depth gradient indicated that high coral mortality was confined to the tidal zone. However, 20–30% of faviid colonies were bleached throughout the depth range, suggesting that the increase in benthic irradiances during extreme low tides caused light stress in deeper water. Analyses of an 8-year dataset of tidal records for the area indicated that the combination of extended periods of aerial exposure and high irradiances occurs during May–September in most years, but that the event in September 2005 was the most severe. We argue that extreme low-tide, high-irradiance events are important structuring forces of intertidal coral reef communities, and can be as damaging as thermal stress events. Importantly, they occur at a time of year when risks from thermal stress, cyclones and monsoon-associated river run-off are minimal.     

Modelling the dynamics of coral reef macroalgae using a Bayesian belief network approach

Macroalgae are a major benthic component of coral reefs and their dynamics influence the resilience of coral reefs to disturbance. However, the relative importance of physical and ecological processes in driving macroalgal dynamics is poorly understood. Here we develop a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model to integrate many of these processes and predict the growth of coral reef macroalgae. Bayesian belief networks use probabilistic relationships rather than deterministic rules to quantify the cause and effect assumptions. The model was developed using both new empirical data and quantified relationships elicited from previous studies. We demonstrate the efficacy of the BBN to predict the dynamics of a common Caribbean macroalgal genus Dictyota. Predictions of the model have an average accuracy of 55% (implying that 55% of the predicted categories of Dictyota cover were assigned to the correct class). Sensitivity analysis suggested that macroalgal dynamics were primarily driven by top–down processes of grazing rather than bottom–up nutrification. BBNs provide a useful framework for modelling complex systems, identifying gaps in our scientific understanding and communicating the complexities of the associated uncertainties in an explicit manner to stakeholders. We anticipate that accuracies will improve as new data are added to the model.     

Effects of Artisanal Fishing on Caribbean Coral Reefs

Abstract:  Although the impacts of industrial fishing are widely recognized, marine ecosystems are generally considered less threatened by artisanal fisheries. To determine how coral reef fish assemblages and benthic communities are affected by artisanal fishing, we studied six Caribbean islands on which fishing pressure ranged from virtually none in Bonaire, increasing through Saba, Puerto Rico, St Lucia, and Dominica, and reaching very high intensities in Jamaica. Using stationary-point fish counts at 5 m and 15 m depth, we counted and estimated the lengths of all noncryptic, diurnal fish species within replicate 10-m-diameter areas. We estimated percent cover of coral and algae and determined reef structural complexity. From fish numbers and lengths we calculated mean fish biomass per count for the five most commercially important families. Groupers (Serranidae), snappers (Lutjanidae), parrotfish (Scaridae), and surgeonfish (Acanthuridae) showed order-of-magnitude differences in biomass among islands. Biomass fell as fishing pressure increased. Only grunts (Haemulidae) did not follow this pattern. Within families, larger-bodied species decreased as fishing intensified. Coral cover and structural complexity were highest on little-fished islands and lowest on those most fished. By contrast, algal cover was an order of magnitude higher in Jamaica than in Bonaire. These results suggest that following the Caribbean-wide mass mortality of herbivorous sea urchins in 1983–1984 and consequent declines in grazing pressure on reefs, herbivorous fishes have not controlled algae overgrowing corals in heavily fished areas but have restricted growth in lightly fished areas. In summary, differences among islands in the structure of fish and benthic assemblages suggest that intensive artisanal fishing has transformed Caribbean reefs.     

Making a Model Meaningful to Coral Reef Managers in a Developing Nation: a Case Study of Overfishing and Rock Anchoring in Indonesia

Abstract: Most of the world's coral reefs line the coasts of developing nations, where impacts from intense and destructive fishing practices form critical conservation issues for managers. Overfishing of herbivorous fishes can cause phase shifts to macroalgal dominance, and fishers’ use of rocks as anchors lowers coral cover, giving further competitive advantage to macroalgae. Overfishing and anchoring have been studied extensively, but the role of their interaction in lowering coral reef resilience has not been quantified formally. We analyzed the combined effects of overfishing and rock anchoring on a range of reef habitat types—varying from high coral and low macroalgae cover to low coral and high macroalgae cover—in a marine park in Indonesia. We parameterized a model of coral and algal dynamics with three intensities of anchoring and fishing pressure. Results of the model indicated that damage caused by rock anchoring was equal to or possibly more devastating to coral reefs in the area than the impact of overfishing. This is an important outcome for local managers, who usually have the funds to distribute less‐damaging anchors, but normally are unable to patrol regularly and effectively enough to reduce the impact of overfishing. We translated model results into an interactive visual tool that allows managers to explore the benefits of reducing anchoring frequency and fishing pressure. The potential consequences of inaction were made clear: the likelihood that any of the reef habitats will be dominated in the future by macroalgae rather than corals depends on reducing anchoring frequency, fishing pressure, or both. The tool provides a platform for strengthened relationships between managers and conservationists and can facilitate the uptake of recommendations regarding resource allocation and management actions. Conservation efforts for coral reefs in developing nations are likely to benefit from transforming model projections of habitat condition into tools local managers can understand and interact with.     

Temporal and spatial variability in coral recruitment on two Indonesian coral reefs: consistently lower recruitment to a degraded reef

Corals are the primary reef-building organisms, therefore it is key to understand their recruitment patterns for effective reef management. Coral recruitment rates and juvenile coral abundance were recorded in the Wakatobi National Marine Park, Indonesia, on two reefs (Sampela and Hoga) with different levels of environmental degradation (12.5 vs. 44 % coral cover with high and low sedimentation rates, respectively) to examine consistencies in recruitment patterns between years and seasons. Recruitment was measured on multiple panels at two sites on each reef (6–7 m depth) and cleared areas of natural reef. Although coral recruitment was twofold higher in 2008–2009 than in 2007–2008, and seasonal differences were identified, consistent significant differences in recruitment rates were found between the two reefs even though they are separated by only ~1.5 km. Recruitment rates and juvenile abundance were lower on the more degraded reef. These patterns are likely a consequence of differential pre- and post-settlement mortality as a result of the high sedimentation rates and degraded conditions and possibly reduced larval supply.     

Phase-shift in coral reef communities in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), USA

Characterizing the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), USA, has gained much attention over the past several decades because of apparent changes in the benthic community structure over space and time representative of patterns occurring in the Caribbean region. We used a 5-year dataset (1996–2000) of macroalgal and sponge cover and water quality measurements as predictor variables of hard coral community structure in the FKNMS. The 16 water quality variables were summarized into 4 groups by principal component analysis (PCA). Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis of the mean and standard deviation (SD) of the principal component scores of water quality variables separated the reef sites into two main groups (and five sub-groups), referred to as reefs of similar influence (RSI). The main groups corresponded with their geographical locations within the Florida Keys: the reefs in the Upper and Middle Keys being homogeneous and collectively, having lower water quality scores relative to reefs in the Lower Keys. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) between hard coral cover and key predictor variables (i.e., water quality, macroalgal cover and sponge cover) also separated the reefs in the Lower Keys from reefs in the Upper–Middle Keys, consistent with results of the cluster analysis, which categorized reefs based on RSI. These results suggest that the prevailing gradient of predictor variables may have influenced the structuring of coral reef communities at a spatial scale larger than the individual reef. Furthermore, it is conceivable that these predictor variables exerted influence for a long time rather than being a recent event. Results also revealed a pattern showing reduction in hard coral cover and species richness, and subsequent proliferation of macroalgae and sponges during the study period. Our analyses of the Florida Keys present a pattern that is consistent with the characteristics of a reef that has undergone a “phase-shift,” a phenomenon that is widely reported in the Caribbean region.     

Effect of Macroalgal Expansion and Marine Protected Areas on Coral Recovery Following a Climatic Disturbance

Disturbance plays an important role in structuring marine ecosystems, and there is a need to understand how conservation practices, such as the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), facilitate postdisturbance recovery. We evaluated the association of MPAs, herbivorous fish biomass, substrate type, postdisturbance coral cover, and change in macroalgal cover with coral recovery on the fringing reefs of the inner Seychelle islands, where coral mortality after a 1998 bleaching event was extensive. We visually estimated benthic cover and fish biomass at 9 sites in MPAs where fishing is banned and at 12 sites where fishing is permitted in 1994, 2005, 2008, and 2011. We used analysis of variance to examine spatial and temporal variations in coral cover and generalized additive models to identify relations between coral recovery and the aforementioned factors that may promote recovery. Coral recovery occurred on all substrate types, but it was highly variable among sites and times. Between 2005 and 2011 the increase in coral cover averaged 1%/year across 21 sites, and the maximum increase was 4%/year. However, mean coral cover across the study area (14%) remained at half of 1994 levels (28%). Sites within MPAs had faster rates of coral recovery than sites in fished areas only where cover of macroalgae was low and had not increased over time. In MPAs where macroalgae cover expanded since 1998 there was no recovery. Where coral was recovering on granite reefs there was a shift in relative prevalence of colony life‐form from branching to encrusting species. This simplification of reef structure may affect associated reef fauna even if predisturbance levels of coral cover are attained. Efecto de la Expansión de Macroalgas y Áreas Marinas Protegidas sobre la Recuperación de Coral Después de una Perturbación Climática     

Identifying management opportunities to combat climate,land, and marine threats across less climate exposed coral reefs

Conserving coral reefs is critical for maintaining marine biodiversity, protecting coastlines, and supporting livelihoods in many coastal communities. Climate change threatens coral reefs globally, but researchers have identified a portfolio of coral reefs (bioclimatic units [BCUs]) that are relatively less exposed to climate impacts and strongly connected to other coral reef systems. These reefs provide a proactive opportunity to secure a long-term future for coral reefs under climate change. To help guide local management efforts, we quantified marine cumulative human impact (CHI) from climate, marine, and land pressures (2013 and from 2008 to 2013) in BCUs and across countries tasked with BCU management. Additionally, we created a management index based on common management measures and policies for each pressure source (climate, marine, and land) to identify a country's intent and commitment to effectively manage these pressures. Twenty-two countries (79%) had increases in CHI from 2008 to 2013. Climate change pressures had the highest proportional contribution to CHI across all reefs and in all but one country (Singapore), but 18 BCUs (35%) and nine countries containing BCUs (32%) had relatively high land and marine impacts. There was a significant positive relationship between climate impact and the climate management index across countries (R² = 0.43, p = 0.02), potentially signifying that countries with greater climate impacts are more committed to managing them. However, this trend was driven by climate management intent in Fiji and Bangladesh. Our results can be used to guide future fine-scale analyses, national policies, and local management decisions, and our management indices reveal areas where management components can be improved. Cost-effectively managing local pressures (e.g., fishing and nutrients) in BCUs is essential for building a climate-ready future that benefits coral reefs and people.     

A spatial model of growth and competition strategies in coral communities

A discrete spatial simulation model is developed to investigate the type and intensity of biological and physical factors influencing the structure of coral communities. The model represents reproduction, growth, and interspecific competition by coral colonies in terms of “ownership” of space in a plot of reef habitat. Using data for several eastern Pacific coral species, the model reproduces observed changes in species composition and diversity during coral community development. Model results suggest that during early successional stages, or in areas that are frequently disturbed, larval colonization and rapid growth are more important than dominance achieved by extracoelenteric digestion or by growing over another coral in acquiring and maintaining possession of reef substrate. In mature communities that remain undisturbed, dominance is the best competitive strategy. Although the model was developed to study natural and man-induced changes in the community dynamics of coral reefs, it could be adapted to study other sessile organisms where spatial pattern is an important influence on the frequency and outcome of biological interactions.     

Identifying Reefs of Hope and Hopeful Actions: Contextualizing Environmental, Ecological, and Social Parameters to Respond Effectively to Climate Change

Abstract:  Priorities for conservation, management, and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness), susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES]), and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [AC]). We studied 24 human communities and adjacent coral reef ecosystems in 5 countries of the southwestern Indian Ocean. We used ecological measures of abundance and diversity of fishes and corals, estimated reef pristineness, and conducted socioeconomic household surveys to determine the AC of communities adjacent to selected coral reefs. We also used Web-based oceanographic and coral mortality data to predict each site's ES to climate warming. Coral reefs of Mauritius and eastern Madagascar had low ES and consequently were not predicted to be affected strongly by warm water, although these sites were differentiated by the AC of the human community. The higher AC in Mauritius may increase the chances for successful self-initiated recovery and protective management of reefs of this island. In contrast, Madagascar may require donor support to build AC as a prerequisite to preservation efforts. The Seychelles and Kenya had high ES, but their levels of AC and disturbance differed. The high AC in the Seychelles could be used to develop alternatives to dependence on coral reef resources and reduce the effects of climate change. Pristineness weighted toward measures of fish recovery was greatest for Kenya's marine protected areas; however, most protected areas in the region were far from pristine. Conservation priorities and actions with realistic chances for success require knowledge of where socioecological systems lie among the 3 axes of environment, ecology, and society.