Factors Associated with Alien Plants Transitioning from Casual, to Naturalized, to Invasive

Abstract:  To explain current plant invasions, or predict future ones, more knowledge on which factors increase the probability of alien species becoming naturalized and subsequently invasive is needed. We created a database of the alien plants in seminatural habitats in Ireland that included data on taxonomy, invasive status, invasion history, distribution, and biological and ecological plant characteristics. We used information from this database to determine the importance of these factors in increasing the ability of species to become naturalized and invasive. More specifically, we used two multiple logistic regressions to identify factors that distinguish naturalized from casual alien plant species and invasive from noninvasive, naturalized alien species. Clonal growth, moisture-indicator value, nitrogen-indicator value, native range, and date of first record affected (in order of decreasing importance) the probability of naturalization. Factors that distinguished invasive from noninvasive species were ornamental introduction, hermaphrodite flowers, pollination mode, being invasive elsewhere, onset of flowering season, moisture-indicator value, native range, and date of first record. Incorporation of phylogenetic information had little influence on the results, suggesting that the capacity of alien species to naturalize and become invasive evolved largely independently in several phylogenetic lineages. Whereas some of the variables were important for both transitions, others were only important for naturalization or for invasion. This emphasizes the importance of studying different stages of the invasion process when looking for mechanisms of becoming a successful invasive plant, instead of simply comparing invasive with noninvasive alien species. Our results also suggest that a combination of species traits and other variables is likely to produce the most accurate prediction of invasions.     

Planting History and Propagule Pressure as Predictors of Invasion by Woody Species in a Temperate Region

Abstract:  We studied 28 alien tree species currently planted for forestry purposes in the Czech Republic to determine the probability of their escape from cultivation and naturalization. Indicators of propagule pressure (number of administrative units in which a species is planted and total planting area) and time of introduction into cultivation were used as explanatory variables in multiple regression models. Fourteen species escaped from cultivation, and 39% of the variance was explained by the number of planting units and the time of introduction, the latter being more important. Species introduced early had a higher probability of escape than those introduced later, with more than 95% probability of escape for those introduced before 1801 and <5% for those introduced after 1892. Probability of naturalization was more difficult to predict, and eight species were misclassified. A model omitting two species with the largest influence on the model yielded similar predictors of naturalization as did the probability of escape. Both phases of invasion therefore appear to be driven by planting and introduction history in a similar way. Our results demonstrate the importance of forestry for recruitment of invasive trees. Six alien forestry trees, classified as invasive in the Czech Republic, are currently reported in nature reserves. In addition, forestry authorities want to increase the diversity of alien species and planting area in the country.     

Resolving whether botanic gardens are on the road to conservation or a pathway for plant invasions

A global conservation goal is to understand the pathways through which invasive species are introduced into new regions. Botanic gardens are a pathway for the introduction of invasive non‐native plants, but a quantitative assessment of the risks they pose has not been performed. I analyzed data on the living collections of over 3000 botanic gardens worldwide to quantify the temporal trend in the representation of non‐native species; the relative composition of threatened, ornamental, or invasive non‐native plant species; and the frequency with which botanic gardens implement procedures to address invasive species. While almost all of the world's worst invasive non‐native plants occurred in one or more living collections (99%), less than one‐quarter of red‐listed threatened species were cultivated (23%). Even when cultivated, individual threatened species occurred in few living collections (7.3), while non‐native species were on average grown in 6 times as many botanic gardens (44.3). As a result, a botanic garden could, on average, cultivate four times as many invasive non‐native species (20) as red‐listed threatened species (5). Although the risk posed by a single living collection is small, the probability of invasion increases with the number of botanic gardens within a region. Thus, while both the size of living collections and the proportion of non‐native species cultivated have declined during the 20th century, this reduction in risk is offset by the 10‐fold increase in the number of botanic gardens established worldwide. Unfortunately, botanic gardens rarely implement regional codes of conduct to prevent plant invasions, few have an invasive species policy, and there is limited monitoring of garden escapes. This lack of preparedness is of particular concern given the rapid increase in living collections worldwide since 1950, particularly in South America and Asia, and highlights past patterns of introduction will be a poor guide to determining future invasion risks.     

Ranking Lepidopteran Use of Native Versus Introduced Plants

Abstract:  In light of the wide-scale replacement of native plants in North America with introduced, invasive species and noninvasive ornamental plants that evolved elsewhere, we compared the value of native and introduced plants in terms of their ability to serve as host plants for Lepidoptera. Insect herbivores such as Lepidoptera larvae are critically important components of terrestrial food webs and any reduction in their biomass or diversity due to the loss of acceptable host plants is predicted to reduce the production of the many insectivores in higher trophic levels. We conducted an exhaustive search of host records in the literature. We used the data we gathered to rank all 1385 plant genera that occur in the mid-Atlantic states of the United States by their ability to support Lepidoptera richness. Statistical comparisons were made with Welch's test for equality of means. Woody plants supported more species of moths and butterflies than herbaceous plants, native plants supported more species than introduced plants, and native woody plants with ornamental value supported more Lepidoptera species than introduced woody ornamentals. All these differences were highly significant. Our rankings provide a relative measure that will be useful for restoration ecologists, landscape architects and designers, land managers, and landowners who wish to raise the carrying capacity of particular areas by selecting plants with the greatest capacity for supporting biodiversity.     

Introduced Birds and the Fate of Hawaiian Rainforests

Abstract:  The Hawaiian Islands have lost nearly all their native seed dispersers, but have gained many frugivorous birds and fleshy-fruited plants through introductions. Introduced birds may not only aid invasions of exotic plants but also may be the sole dispersers of native plants. We assessed seed dispersal at the ecotone between native- and exotic-dominated forests and quantified bird diets, seed rain from defecated seeds, and plant distributions. Introduced birds were the primary dispersers of native seeds into exotic-dominated forests, which may have enabled six native understory plant species to become reestablished. Some native plant species are now as common in exotic forest understory as they are in native forest. Introduced birds also dispersed seeds of two exotic plants into native forest, but dispersal was localized or establishment minimal. Seed rain of bird-dispersed seeds was extensive in both forests, totaling 724 seeds of 9 native species and 2 exotics with over 85% of the seeds coming from native plants. Without suitable native dispersers, most common understory plants in Hawaiian rainforests now depend on introduced birds for dispersal, and these introduced species may actually facilitate perpetuation, and perhaps in some cases restoration, of native forests. We emphasize, however, that restoration of native forests by seed dispersal from introduced birds, as seen in this study, depends on the existence of native forests to provide a source of seeds and protection from the effects of ungulates. Our results further suggest that aggressive control of patches of non-native plants within otherwise native-dominated forests may be an important and effective conservation strategy.     

Differing Effects of Cattle Grazing on Native and Alien Plants

Abstract:   Habitat managers use cattle grazing to reduce alien plant cover and promote native species in California grasslands and elsewhere in the western United States. We tested the effectiveness of grazing as a restoration method by examining the effects of herbivory on native and alien plants. At Carrizo Plain National Monument, California, we surveyed native and alien species cover in adjacent grazed and ungrazed areas. We also established experimental plots in which plants were clipped or mulch (dead biomass) was removed. In addition, we clipped plants grown in pots and plants in the field that grew with and without competitors. Native species were negatively affected by clipping in 1999, 2000, and 2001, whereas alien species were unaffected. In the experimental field plots, the European annual forb Erodium cicutarium compensated in growth and reproduction following simulated herbivory. In contrast, growth and reproduction of the native perennial bunchgrass Poa secunda were reduced 1 year after clipping. In pots, E. cicutarium overcompensated and grasses undercompensated. In the field, European grasses were unaffected by the removal of competitors. It is unclear by what mechanism E. cicutarium was able to compensate, but the ability may be related to its basal rosette growth form and indeterminately growing inflorescences. The native California grassland community assembled in the absence of grazing herds, whereas invasive European species have been exposed to grazing for centuries. It may be that these invaders have adaptations that better enable them to recover from grazing. In the grassland we studied, the strategy of livestock grazing for restoration is counterproductive. It harms native species and promotes alien plant growth.     

Impact of Native Plants on Bird and Butterfly Biodiversity in Suburban Landscapes

Abstract:  Managed landscapes in which non-native ornamental plants are favored over native vegetation now dominate the United States, particularly east of the Mississippi River. We measured how landscaping with native plants affects the avian and lepidopteran communities on 6 pairs of suburban properties in southeastern Pennsylvania. One property in each pair was landscaped entirely with native plants and the other exhibited a more conventional suburban mixture of plants—a native canopy with non-native groundcover and shrubs. Vegetation sampling confirmed that total plant cover and plant diversity did not differ between treatments, but non-native plant cover was greater on the conventional sites and native plant cover was greater on the native sites. Several avian (abundance, species richness, biomass, and breeding-bird abundance) and larval lepidopteran (abundance and species richness) community parameters were measured from June 2006 to August 2006. Native properties supported significantly more caterpillars and caterpillar species and significantly greater bird abundance, diversity, species richness, biomass, and breeding pairs of native species. Of particular importance is that bird species of regional conservation concern were 8 times more abundant and significantly more diverse on native properties. In our study area, native landscaping positively influenced the avian and lepidopteran carrying capacity of suburbia and provided a mechanism for reducing biodiversity losses in human-dominated landscapes.     

Earthworm Invasion as the Driving Force Behind Plant Invasion and Community Change in Northeastern North American Forests

Abstract:  Identification of factors that drive changes in plant community structure and contribute to decline and endangerment of native plant species is essential to the development of appropriate management strategies. Introduced species are assumed to be driving causes of shifts in native plant communities, but unequivocal evidence supporting this view is frequently lacking. We measured native vegetation, non-native earthworm biomass, and leaf-litter volume in 15 forests in the presence and absence of 3 non-native plant species ( Microstegium vimineum, Alliaria petiolata, Berberis thunbergii ) to assess the general impact of non-native plant and earthworm invasions on native plant communities in northeastern United States. Non-native plant cover was positively correlated with total native plant cover and non-native earthworm biomass. Earthworm biomass was negatively associated with cover of native woody and most herbaceous plants and with litter volume. Graminoid cover was positively associated with non-native earthworm biomass and non-native plant cover. These earthworm-associated responses were detected at all sites despite differences in earthworm species and abundance, composition of the native plant community, identity of invasive plant species, and geographic region. These patterns suggest earthworm invasion, rather than non-native plant invasion, is the driving force behind changes in forest plant communities in northeastern North America, including declines in native plant species, and earthworm invasions appear to facilitate plant invasions in these forests. Thus, a focus on management of invasive plant species may be insufficient to protect northeastern forest understory species.     

Protection versus culture-driven exploitation of wild plant resources: the case on Changbai Mountain

Under Chinese culture it is believed that herbal medicine is always safe and wild food is always healthy. Generally, the rarer a plant, the higher its value. The booming economy in China has promoted tourism development in wilderness areas and wild medicinal and food plants are part of the attraction to tourists. Conflicts between wild plant exploitation and protection have emerged in many parts of China, such as Changbai Mountain. Changbai Mountain supports numerous medicinal and food plants but many have become rare and endangered. This paper numerically evaluates 30 plant species that have relatively high conservation value for each type (medicinal, ornamental and food), and briefly describes the uses of four to five top ranked species per type that need more protection on Changbai Mountain. This paper also addresses some tree species with important timber values on Changbai Mountain. Over 90% of China's medicinal, ornamental and food plant species, as well as valuable timber trees are found in the conifer–broadleaf mixed forest zone across the boundary of Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve. It is a major challenge to protect the native biodiversity of mixed forest on Changbai Mountain and more efforts need to be made to protect rare and endangered plant species with high economic value.     

When there is no escape: the effects of natural enemies on native, invasive, and noninvasive plants

An important question in the study of biological invasions is the degree to which successful invasion can be explained by release from control by natural enemies. Natural enemies dominate explanations of two alternate phenomena: that most introduced plants fail to establish viable populations (biotic resistance hypothesis) and that some introduced plants become noxious invaders (natural enemies hypothesis). We used a suite of 18 phylogenetically related native and nonnative clovers (Trifolium and Medicago) and the foliar pathogens and invertebrate herbivores that attack them to answer two questions. Do native species suffer greater attack by natural enemies relative to introduced species at the same site? Are some introduced species excluded from native plant communities because they are susceptible to local natural enemies? We address these questions using three lines of evidence: (1) the frequency of attack and composition of fungal pathogens and herbivores for each clover species in four years of common garden experiments, as well as susceptibility to inoculation with a common pathogen; (2) the degree of leaf damage suffered by each species in common garden experiments; and (3) fitness effects estimated using correlative approaches and pathogen removal experiments. Introduced species showed no evidence of escape from pathogens, being equivalent to native species as a group in terms of infection levels, susceptibility, disease prevalence, disease severity (with more severe damage on introduced species in one year), the influence of disease on mortality, and the effect of fungicide treatment on mortality and biomass. In contrast, invertebrate herbivores caused more damage on native species in two years, although the influence of herbivore attack on mortality did not differ between native and introduced species. Within introduced species, the predictions of the biotic resistance hypothesis were not supported: the most invasive species showed greater infection, greater prevalence and severity of disease, greater prevalence of herbivory, and greater effects of fungicide on biomass and were indistinguishable from noninvasive introduced species in all other respects. Therefore, although herbivores preferred native over introduced species, escape from pest pressure cannot be used to explain why some introduced clovers are common invaders in coastal prairie while others are not.     

Vectors and Timing of Freshwater Invasions in Great Britain

Abstract: Nonindigenous freshwater species cause large ecological and economic impacts in Great Britain. In response the government is in the process of implementing a broad, new nonindigenous species strategy. We assembled a list of all nonindigenous freshwater species that are or were established in Great Britain, their date of first record, and their vector of introduction. This list provides a baseline against which the success of new policies can be assessed. Because the biota of Great Britain has been well recorded, our results provide a highly resolved case study of the vectors and drivers of species transport and establishment. A total of 117 nonindigenous freshwater species are currently established in Great Britain; a further 17 species were once established but are now extirpated. Between 1800 and 2000 the number of established species increased at an accelerating rate, and this increase correlated with the growth in human population and gross domestic product. The construction of large reservoirs in Great Britain occurred over a short period and overlapped high rates of new species establishment, indicating that habitat modification may have been an important driver of establishment. Nonindigenous species now account for 24% of fish, 12% of plant, 54% of amphibian, and 88% of decapod crustacean freshwater species richness in Great Britain. The ornamental trades have been responsible for the greatest percentages of intentionally (73%) and unintentionally (34%) introduced species that have become established. Shipping and aquaculture have also been strong vectors. These vectors should be prioritized for management within the new nonindigenous species strategy.     

外来入侵植物在中国的分布及入侵能力研究进展

以近十几年来备受关注的外来植物入侵为背景,综述关于入侵植物在我国分布和入侵能力及其相关因素的研究进展,并探讨了未来研究需要加强的几个方面。不同起源地的入侵植物在我国分布区域不一样,在控制了起源地的作用后,入侵植物主要分布在经济较发达、人为活动较多的省份或地区（大尺度）,以及干扰较严重的生境（小尺度）。入侵能力强的多年生植物常有强大的无性繁殖能力、高光合速率和资源利用效率、强化感作用、以及适应异质生境的能力;起源于美洲的入侵能力强的1年生植物常能产生大量的易传播的种子、可自交亲和、强化感作用等;起源于欧亚大陆的入侵能力强的1年生植物常与作物非常相似,在农田中危害严重。未来需要研究干扰促进入侵的机制、化感作用与野外实际情况相结合研究、化感物质通过改变土壤微生态环境间接促进入侵的机制研究、1年生和多年生外来植物的入侵能力与其物种特性之间的关系、以及加强对弱入侵性外来植物的预警研究。这些研究不仅能使我们深入理解外来植物发生入侵和危害的规律,也可为人侵植物的防控和管理提供科学依据。     

Worldwide effects of non-native species on species–area relationships

Non-native species have invaded most parts of the world, and the invasion process is expected to continue and accelerate. Because many invading non-native species are likely to become permanent inhabitants, future consideration of species-area relationships (SARs) should account for non-native species, either separately or jointly with native species. If non-native species occupy unused niches and space in invaded areas and extinction rate of native species remains low (especially for plants), the resultant SARs (with both native and non-native species) will likely be stronger. We used published and newly compiled data (35 data sets worldwide) to examine how species invasions affect SARs across selected taxonomic groups and diverse ecosystems around the world. We first examined the SARs for native, non-native, and all species. We then investigated with linear regression analyses and paired or unpaired t tests how degree of invasion (proportion of non-native species) affected postinvasion SARs. Postinvasion SARs for all species (native plus non-native) became significantly stronger as degree of invasion increased (r² = 0.31, p = 0.0006), thus, reshaping SARs worldwide. Overall, native species still showed stronger and less variable SARs. Also, slopes for native species were steeper than for non-native species (0.298 vs. 0.153). There were some differences among non-native taxonomic groups in filling new niches (especially for birds) and between islands and mainland ecosystems. We also found evidence that invasions may increase equilibrial diversity. Study of such changing species–area curves may help determine the probability of future invasions and have practical implications for conservation.     

三种菊科入侵植物的生长与化学防御的关系研究

“生活史理论”认为,植物可利用的资源总量是有限的,在植物的不同功能之间存在着此消彼长的权衡关系。入侵植物的生长和化学防御一般优于本地植物,那么其生长与化学防御之间是否存在权衡及其权衡关系怎样,目前尚不清楚。以广东省3种菊科入侵植物[三裂叶蟛蜞菊（Wedelia trilobata （L.） Hitchc.）、飞机草（Eupatorium odoratum）和薇甘菊（Mikania micrantha）]为研究对象,并分别以近缘或伴生的本地植物[蟛蜞菊（Wedelia chinenses）、华泽兰（Eupatorium chinense）和鸡矢藤（Paederia scandens）]为对照,研究入侵植物的生长特性（相对生长率和比叶面积）与化学防御物质（缩合单宁和总酚）含量,并基于这2种光合碳分配的主要形式,探讨入侵植物生长与化学防御之间的权衡关系。结果表明：3种入侵植物的相对生长率均高于本地对照种;薇甘菊的比叶面积大于对照种,而其他2种无明显优势。薇甘菊和三裂叶蟛蜞菊的缩合单宁显著高于对照种,飞机草的总酚含量高于对照种。我们的结果显示,入侵植物的生长和化学防御均优于本地植物,但它们的碳同化能力相近;因此,入侵植物特殊的内在资源分配与利用机制可能是其成功入侵的关键。     

海南鹦哥岭的外来植物与生态环境影响评价

通过对鹦哥岭外来植物的调查,以及外来植物区系的种类组成、原产地、生长型、生境和危害程度等的分析,阐明鹦哥岭的外来植物现状及其对当地生态环境的影响。分析表明:共有53种外来植物,约占鹦哥岭种子植物总数的2.73%,主要来自新大陆热带地区(35种)。其中草本(36种)和灌木(13种)占优势,藤本(3种)和小乔木(2种)相对不明显。外来种对鹦哥岭自然生态系统的影响较小,对人为干扰严重的生态系统影响较大。最后对外来植物进行评估,并提出防控措施。     

Predicting Future Threats to the Native Vegetation of Robinson Crusoe Island, Juan Fernandez Archipelago, Chile

Abstract:   The Juan Fernandez Archipelago, a Chilean national park and biosphere reserve, is 700 km west of continental Chile. Invasive plant species pose major threats to the native, highly endemic vegetation, especially on Robinson Crusoe Island (Mas a Tierra), where there is a permanent settlement. We used historical and recent vegetation map data as well as recent vegetational point data to reconstruct vegetational changes on the island since the early twentieth century. In addition, we used logistic regression models with environmental variables or their surrogates (elevation, solar radiation, topographic similarity index, slope position) to estimate the potential distributions of the worst invaders. Native vegetation has been affected most severely by Acaena argentea , Aristotelia chilensis , Rubus ulmifolius , and Ugni molinae , leading to a significant decrease of endemic plants in the montane forests and native shrublands. The native forest has decreased by approximately one-third. The area affected by Aristotelia chilensis increased from 6.5% to 14% of the total island area. Ugni molinae , once rare, is now abundant (4.6%), as is Acaena (11.9%). Rubus ulmifolius , not present 80 years ago, now covers about 7% of the island's surface. The distributions of all studied species except Rubus ulmifolius are significantly ( p < 0.05) controlled by the environmental factors we examined. Inferring from potential distributions of Aristotelia chilensis and Ugni molinae , 50% of the native montane forest could be invaded or replaced (with a probability of >60%) by these plants. Based on the invasion speed of the past 80 years, this would take another 80 years if conservation measures do not succeed.     

Utility of North Atlantic Right Whale Museum Specimens for Assessing Changes in Genetic Diversity

Abstract: We examined six historical specimens of the endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ) using DNA isolated from documented baleen plates from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Sequences from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region from these samples were compared with those from a near-exhaustive survey (269 of approximately 320 individuals) of the remaining right whales in the western North Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that there has been only relatively modest change in maternal lineage diversity over the past century in the North Atlantic right whale population. Any significant reduction in genetic variation in the species most likely occurred prior to the late nineteenth century. One historical specimen was from the last documented female capable of propagating one of the maternal lineages in the population today; no females in the existing population have been found to carry this mtDNA haplotype. Analysis of the only specimens from the eastern North Atlantic right whale population ever to be examined revealed that eastern and western North Atlantic right whales may not have been genetically differentiated populations. Loss of gene diversity experienced by North Atlantic right whales over the last century has been modest, and the six decades of protection have been successful in maintaining much of the maternal lineage diversity that was present in the late nineteenth century.     

Bacterial colonization of the phyllosphere of nineteen plant species and antimicrobial activity of their leaf secondary metabolites against leaf associated bacteria

Summary. The scope of this work was to examine whether leaf constitutive secondary metabolites play a role in determining bacterial colonization of the phyllosphere. To this aim, we surveyed nineteen native or cultivated plant species that share a common bacterial pool in a North Mediterranean area, and estimated the size of total and ice nucleation active (INA) bacterial populations on their leaves. Large differences in the colonization of their phyllosphere were found; the population size of epiphytic bacteria ranged from 7.5 × 10² to 1 × 10⁶ CFU/g fresh weight, in eucalypt and celery, respectively. Species native in Mediterranean-type climate areas, particularly those belonging to the group of aromatic plants, are characterized by scarce presence of INA bacteria. The antibacterial activity of essential oils, surface phenolics and leaf tissue extracts was also estimated against the INA strains P. syringae and E. herbicola, isolated from two of these plant species. E. herbicola proved more sensitive than P. syringae. Of the species examined, oregano [Origanum vulgare L. subsp. hirtum (Link.) Ietswaart], an aromatic plant, had the highest antimicrobial activity, whereas six species showed no activity at all. Further experiments were performed with oregano and bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) that represent two extremes in their secondary metabolite content. Both plants were inoculated with P. syringae. By the end of incubation, the bacterial population on bean plants was about 100 times higher than that on oregano leaves. Scanning electron micrographs showed that bacterial growth on oregano leaves was confined to sites away from glandular hairs. Results from the bacterial colonization survey together with those from the toxicity tests showed that all species rich in antibacterial secondary metabolites harbored low leaf bacterial populations. These results provide substantial evidence that leaf secondary metabolites function as constitutive defense chemicals against microbial invasions. However, the fact that species with non- or moderately active leaf secondary metabolites are not always highly colonized suggests mediation of other unknown factors, the contribution of which requires further investigation.     

Diversity-invasibility across an experimental disturbance gradient in Appalachian Forests

Research examining the relationship between community diversity and invasions by nonnative species has raised new questions about the theory and management of biological invasions. Ecological theory predicts, and small-scale experiments confirm, lower levels of nonnative species invasion into species-rich compared to species-poor communities, but observational studies across a wider range of scales often report positive relationships between native and nonnative species richness. This paradox has been attributed to the scale dependency of diversity-invasibility relationships and to differences between experimental and observational studies. Disturbance is widely recognized as an important factor determining invasibility of communities, but few studies have investigated the relative and interactive roles of diversity and disturbance on nonnative species invasion. Here, we report how the relationship between native and nonnative plant species richness responded to an experimentally applied disturbance gradient (from no disturbance up to clearcut) in oak-dominated forests. We consider whether results are consistent with various explanations of diversity-invasibility relationships including biotic resistance, resource availability, and the potential effects of scale (1 m2 to 2 ha). We found no correlation between native and nonnative species richness before disturbance except at the largest spatial scale, but a positive relationship after disturbance across scales and levels of disturbance. Post-disturbance richness of both native and nonnative species was positively correlated with disturbance intensity and with variability of residual basal area of trees. These results suggest that more nonnative plants may invade species-rich communities compared to species-poor communities following disturbance.     

Predicting Invasions of Woody Plants Introduced into North America

Plant species continue to be introduced in North America for various purposes. If the trend continues, it is probable that some will escape cultivation and become invasive in native ecosystems. We present a retrospective analysis of several structural, life history, and biogeographical attributes of woody plants introduced in North America to determine which traits characterize species that have and have not invaded. Predictive models derived from discriminant analysis correctly classified 86.2% of the species in cross-validation, whereas those derived from classification and regression trees classified 76% correctly. From these models we created a hierarchical predictive tree that allows the user to divide species into three categories: admit (low risk of invasiveness), deny admission (high risk of invasiveness), or delay admission for further analyses and/or monitor intensively (risk cannot adequately be assessed based on only the included attributes). We recommend that species that are highly invasive elsewhere not be allowed into the U.S. and that a more conservative introduction policy using a hierarchical predictive method be employed.