The future of hydropower in Europe: Interconnecting climate,markets and policies

Hydropower is very important for electricity supply security in the European inter-connexion as well as for the economy of regions (primarily peripheral) that possess water resources. Its future may however be jeopardized by several factors: climate change, the development of new renewable energy, the creation of super and micro-grids, and progress in power storage technology. Energy and climate policy, as well as electricity market design and dynamics play a pivotal role.This article carries out a comprehensive analysis of all these factors and discusses the future of hydropower. This discussion follows an overview of the present situation and of future drivers. The technical, environmental, economic and political aspects of the problem are analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach. The stakes as well as the uncertainties are highlighted.The conclusion is that hydropower has a promising future, particularly in light of emerging sustainable energy policy, but that the risks should not be overlooked. Academics will find a comprehensive interdisciplinary analysis of hydropower in this article, whereas public bodies, communities and hydropower companies can identify the strategic variables that should be taken into consideration in the decision making process. The end of water concessions or authorizations is also evoked.     

Contexualising the tool development process through a knowledge brokering approach: The case of climate change adaptation and agriculture

This article applies a ‘knowledge brokering’ approach to contextualise the development of an integrated computer modelling tool into the real world policy context of adaptation of agriculture to climate change at the EU level. In particular, the article tests a number of knowledge brokering strategies described and theorised in the literature, but seldom empirically tested. The article finds that while the policy context can be used to identify a theoretically informed knowledge brokering strategy, in practice a strategy's ‘success’ is more informed by practical considerations, such as whether the tool development process is knowledge or demand driven. In addition, in practice the knowledge brokering process is found to be dynamic and messy, which is not always apparent in the literature. The article goes on to question the perception that there is always a need (or a desire) to bridge the gap between researchers and policy makers in the tool development process. Rather than a problem of design and communication, the science policy interface may be characterised more by a high level of competition between researchers and research organisations to have their tool legitimised by its use in the policy making process.     

A comparison of definitions of affordability for flood risk adaption measures: a case study of current and future risk-based flood insurance premiums in Europe

Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.     

A Method for Constructing a Social Vulnerability Index: An Application to Hurricane Storm Surges in a Developed Country

An important goal of vulnerability assessment is to create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators. Constructing a vulnerability index raises several problems in the aggregation of these indicators, including the decision of assigning weights to them. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a method of aggregating vulnerability indicators that results in a composite index of vulnerability, but that avoids the problems associated with assigning weights. The investigators apply a technique based on Pareto ranking to a complex, developed socioeconomic landscape exposed to storm surges associated with hurricanes. Indicators of social vulnerability to this hazard are developed and a principal components analysis is performed on proxies for these indicators. Overall social vulnerability is calculated by applying Pareto ranking to these principal components. The paper concludes that it is possible to construct an effective index of vulnerability without weighting the individual vulnerability indicators.     

An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM Project

This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995 and 2100. Scenarios consisted of trends in emissions, acid deposition, nitrogen deposition and climate change. Critical loads and critical levels were used to assess the impacts of deposition to forest soils and a new analogous concept of “critical climate change” was developed to assess the impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the limitations of the scope and models used in the study, preliminary conclusions were: (1) regional air pollution and climate change may be fairly weakly coupled in the natural environment, i.e. climate change was not found to have a large impact on the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to regional air pollution, nor on the distribution of deposition; nor did regional air pollution (in the form of sulfate aerosols) have a significant impact on climate change in Europe; (2) however, regional air pollution and climate change may be strongly coupled in the “policy” environment. It was estimated that virtually all of Europe at mid-century might be affected by either regional air pollution or climate change, or both, and this will require a strong policy response. Moreover, the indirect effects of climate policies were found to reduce the costs of controlling air pollution emissions by more than 50%, suggesting a strong potential financial linkage between policies to reduce greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.     

环境规制、经济高质量发展与生态资本利用的空间关系——以北部湾经济区为例

生态资本利用的空间关系影响区域可持续发展。以北部湾经济区2006—2019年面板数据为例,构建空间杜宾模型研究环境规制、经济高质量发展与生态资本利用的空间关系,结论如下：（1）环境规制、经济高质量发展和生态资本构成三E系统。（2）生态资本利用存在显著空间正自相关关系。（3）生态资本供需、流量利用及存量占用与环境规制显著空间正相关,环境规制抑制了存量占用及资本供需和流量利用水平;与经济高质量发展显著空间正相关,经济高质量发展显著提高了资本供给需求与流量利用,也增大了存量占用。（4）交互效应显著抑制了两者对资本供需与流量利用的影响、抑制了环境规制对存量占用的影响,也促进了经济高质量发展对存量占用的影响。研究结论对区域生态资本管控有实际意义。     

湖泊型旅游地社区参与的去权过程及启示——以安徽省太平湖为例

增权是社区参与旅游研究的重要领域。增权对应的概念是去权,对社区去权的研究能够为增权探索提供扎实的理论基础和路径借鉴。运用文献分析、深度访谈和田野调查等方法,以安徽省太平湖为例,借助社区增权分析框架,探索湖泊型旅游地社区参与的去权过程。研究发现：（1）太平湖渔民群体在政治、经济、心理和社会四个维度上都显现出权利被削弱甚至处于无权的状态。（2）经济利益分配不公是社区居民“权能感”丧失最直接的因素,为改变利益主体之间的权力关系,对政治权益的要求常成为经济诉求的辅助手段;经济、政治和社会三方面去权共同导致了社区心理无权感。（3）太平湖社区参与的去权呈现了螺旋下降的过程。（4）相对区位条件、参与旅游程度、个人能力等因素导致对“权能感”感知明显不同,社区内部出现分化。最后,从制度、政府和社区层面探讨了湖泊型旅游地社区去权的根源。     

污水处理厂中微塑料的去除效能与全流程分析——以北京某下沉式三级污水处理厂为例

污水处理厂排放是微塑料进入自然环境的重要途径之一,本研究对北京某下沉式三级污水处理厂八个工艺单元中微塑料的赋存特征和去除效能进行全流程分析.研究表明该厂赋存微塑料主要形态为纤维,主要成分为聚丙烯、聚酯和聚乙烯,尺寸≤500μm的微塑料影响最为显著.该厂对微塑料的整体去除率为91.7％,主要依靠沉淀和截留过滤去除.双层平...     

An insight into the removal of fluoroquinolones in activated sludge process: Sorption and biodegradation characteristics

The detailed sorption steps and biodegradation characteristics of fluoroquinolones(FQs)including ciprofloxacin, enrofloxacin, lomefloxacin, norfloxacin, and ofloxacin were investigated through batch experiments. The results indicate that FQs at a total concentration of 500 μg/L caused little inhibition of sludge bioactivity. Sorption was the primary removal pathway of FQs in the activated sludge process, followed by biodegradation, while hydrolysis and volatilization were negligible. FQ sorption on activated sludge was a reversible process governed by surface reaction. Henry and Freundlich models could describe the FQ sorption isotherms well in the concentration range of 100–300 μg/L. Thermodynamic parameters revealed that FQ sorption on activated sludge is spontaneous, exothermic, and enthalpy-driven. Hydrophobicity-independent mechanisms determined the FQ sorption affinity with activated sludge. The zwitterion of FQs had the strongest sorption affinity, followed by cation and anion, and aerobic condition facilitated FQ sorption. FQs were slowly biodegradable, with long half-lives( 100 hr). FQ biodegradation was enhanced with increasing temperature and under aerobic condition,and thus was possibly achieved through co-metabolism during nitrification. This study provides an insight into the removal kinetics and mechanism of FQs in the activated sludge process, but also helps assess the environmental risks of FQs resulting from sludge disposal.     

诺氟沙星和土霉素对汞在鱼体内积累和转化的影响研究

为阐明诺氟沙星和土霉素对汞(Hg)在鱼体内积累和转化的影响机制,探究了Hg单一暴露、诺氟沙星-Hg和土霉素-Hg复合暴露条件下,鱼体内各器官和组织中总汞(THg)和甲基汞(MeHg)的积累特征.结果表明：Hg单一暴露条件下,鱼体肌肉THg含量随着暴露时间呈先增加后降低的趋势,鱼头和内脏组织的THg含量随暴露时间增加而逐渐增加,内脏组织积累量高于鱼头(p<0.01).鱼体内的MeHg含量随着暴露时间的增加而不断增加,其中肌肉和内脏组织增加显著(p<0.05),鱼头无明显差异(p>0.05).在诺氟沙星-Hg和土霉素-Hg复合暴露条件下,鱼体内的THg和MeHg含量与Hg单一暴露处理相比均产生显著变化,诺氟沙星和土霉素均能促进THg在鱼体内的积累及抑制MeHg的形成(p<0.01).然而,无论对THg积累的促进作用还是对MeHg形成的抑制作用,诺氟沙星比土霉素作用都更为显著.     

长江三角洲跨界流域生态产品交易机制——以天目湖流域为例

生态价值多元化实现是落实区域一体化生态保护格局的经济政策保障。针对当前生态产品交易制度不完善与市场活跃度问题,以天目湖流域水质净化服务产品为例,提出一条生态保护市场化与生态产品增值的双向促进道路：基于长序列监测数据与水文水质过程模型,提出流域生态保护基准概念及其约束下生态产品交易边界,精准核算基准年水质净化产品的可交易量为1.37 t,基准价格为1186.71万元/t/年;面向近10年产品实际供需主体的内在联系,揭示了“三类五种”生态产品交易机制类型,并选择设计了低端产品退出—高端产品激励的典型交易模式。生态产品交易实施为研究区生态价值实现提供市场化路径,为国内同类地区一体化生态保护格局保障提供思路。     

进水C/N对部分反硝化NO2-积累和微生物特性的影响

采用缺氧/好氧间歇运行模式,考察进水碳氮比（C/N=5.0,3.3,2.5,2.0）对部分反硝化过程亚硝态氮（NO₂^-）积累特性和污染物降解规律的影响,同时结合高通量测序,探究微生物多样性和功能菌群的演变规律.结果表明,C/N为2.5时,系统获得最佳处理效果,出水NO₂^-浓度为27.18mg/L,亚硝态氮转化率（NTR）高达67.96%;分析典型周期各污染物的降解规律发现,尽管4组工况均在缺氧30min时NO₂^-积累达到峰值（最高值分别为4.86（C/N=5.0）,16.52（C/N=3.3）,30.16（C/N=2.5）,20.28（C/N=2.0） mg/L）,但COD降解速率的不同直接影响了反硝化进程,且只有在低C/N条件（C/N=2.0~2.5）才能维持稳定的NO₂^-积累.高通量测序结果表明,除了Thauera（2.67%~24.04%）、Terrimonas（4.94%~21.19%）、Saprospiraceae（5.34%~13.50%）等常规功能菌属外,Flavobacterium（28.23%）是C/N为2.5时维持高NO₂^-积累的优势菌属.结合部分反硝化工艺的运行特点,探讨了NO₂^-作为中间产物的相关耦合工艺的应用可行性.     

Enhancing our understanding of the role of environmental policy in environmental innovation: adoption explained by the accumulation of policy instruments and agent-based factors

The empirical literature reports conflicting findings on the relation between environmental policy and environmental innovation: environmental policy both encourages and impedes environmental innovation, resulting in competing theoretical explanations. To find a way out of this counterproductive debate requires new and complementary insights into the effects of different policy instruments. This research therefore advances an approach in which a set of specific policy instruments as well as firms’ behavior regarding CHP (cogeneration of heat and power) adoption are considered as two distinct factors explaining environmental innovation in the Dutch paper and board industry. Using a longitudinal research design, the focus was not on any single policy instrument but on the accumulation of policy instruments. In addition, we studied intra-organizational factors influencing the adoption decision.Overall, we can conclude that paper and board factories perceive governmental environmental policies to be relevant, but that this constitutes just one of the factors influencing adoption processes, next to intra-organizational factors. The relative importance of such policies varies over time and per adoption process. The role of top-down regulation appears to be limited, whereas interactive regulation turned out to be important for several factories in the latest period of adoption. Positive economic instruments were important in almost all adoption processes, but were not and will never be the most important reason for adoption. The most important reason for CHP adoption appears to be high energy prices in combination with cost price reduction or the threat of additional regulation. For future policies, we recommend the implementation of a specific mixture of policy instruments, attuned to the specific industry and reinforcing each other. Moreover, goals should be consistent over time to avoid risk-averse behavior.     

中国乡村旅游研究历程与新时代发展趋向

通过系统的文献梳理,回顾总结了中国乡村旅游的研究历程,将其划分为初级化应用研究（1992—2005年）、多元化拓展研究（2006—2015年）和融合性深化研究（2016年至今）三个阶段,分析了各阶段的时代背景和研究价值取向,借助CiteSpace知识图谱分析,揭示了研究主题的变化过程与研究特征。结合新时代乡村振兴战略和旅游发展需求,阐述乡村旅游的基本特性,构建了新时代乡村旅游的研究框架,提出了主要科学问题,并对乡村旅游的研究趋向及其学术创新进行了展望。强调乡村性和游憩性构成了乡村旅游的基本特性。应围绕新时代的国家战略及高质量发展要求,紧跟国际学术前沿,立足于中国乡村旅游研究的本土实践,将产业、生态、文化、治理、生活作为核心要素,构建“五位一体”的乡村旅游研究基本框架;聚焦乡村地域系统及其复杂性、关键性旅游科学问题,加强研究平台与专业人才建设,综合集成多学科理论和技术方法,强化数据驱动与科技赋能,深入揭示乡村旅游推动乡村振兴的过程、格局、机制和规律,探索中国特色的乡村旅游振兴发展模式与路径;不断推动理论研究深化、实践应用创新和乡村旅游学发展,提高乡村旅游学术水平、创新能力、服务价值和国际化水平。     

Differentiation of countries’ future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime: An assessment of the “South–North Dialogue” Proposal

The “South–North Dialogue” Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries’ emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a “political willingness” scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The “political willingness scenario” will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.