新建核电站风险信息沟通实证研究

随着我国近年核电产业的迅速扩张,核风险管理已成为社会各界关注甚至争议的热点.核风险沟通是核突发事件预防、应对及恢复的关键要素,对核风险管理具有重要的影响.然而,对如何与核电站周边风险群体进行有效沟通还知之甚少.为弥补这个缺憾,作者走访了山东海阳在建核电站相关管理人员并对周边常住居民进行问卷调查,以了解他们对核电发展的态度.文章描述了风险沟通的基本框架,意识到公众信任和信息公开的重要性.结果发现我国核能发展决策是由政府部门、核能企业和科研院所组成的"铁三角"主导的,受访者获取核信息的最主要途径是媒体,相对于其它渠道,超过51%的公众更相信政府发布的信息,更多受访者不愿意接受核风险和反对在当地建设核电站.最后提出了有效风险沟通的基本原则.研究结论对未来核电风险管理具有重要指导意义,也对利益相关方具有参考价值.     

我国居民对核事故不同关注下的风险感知研究

本研究基于福岛核事故在田湾核电站所在地江苏省连云港市开展核风险感知调查。结果表明:所研究的5个风险感知因子均值由高到低分别为:影响度>收益度>信任度>接受度>了解度。公众对核电信息了解较少,电视和网络是公众获取核电信息的最主要来源。影响公众核风险感知的因素包括:性别、年龄、受教育程度、职业和家庭月收入等。对福岛核事故关注度不同的人群在了解度和影响度上存在显著差异,关注度高的公众对这2个风险感知因子的感知程度均较高,而高、低关注度的两类人群在信任度、收益度和接受度方面不存在显著差异。     

Review of drivers and barriers for nuclear power in the UK

There has been resurgence in interest in new nuclear power stations over the last couple of years. The UK Government has taken steps to encourage the private sector to build new stations in the UK, a change in its previous neutral stance toward nuclear power. This paper examines the change in government policy asking what drivers have led to this decision and what barriers were preventing new nuclear power in the past and what barriers are still faced by both government and industry. Three main drivers are discussed: security of energy supply; diminishing energy generation capacity; and climate change. The paper also examines other key factors that play a part in facilitating a shift in government policy, namely economics, public perception and waste management policy. Barriers are identified through examination of public perception, and policy. The changes to the planning system are also discussed. The paper concludes by comparing drivers and barriers for other technologies and contrasting the UK experience with that of other countries.     

Public acceptance and risk-benefit perception of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> geological storage for global warming mitigation in Japan

CO₂ geological storage will be one of the cost-effective options for global warming mitigation, and this technology is under development widely in the world. However, the technology may face the challenge of public acceptance before its implementation. In order to evaluate the public acceptance, questionnaire surveys were conducted among Japanese university students. A cognitive map of geological storage, together with other major global warming mitigation options, everyday life activities, etc., was constructed by means of a statistical analysis of the responses to the questionnaire. The risk-benefit cognitive map consists of the following factors: “risk perception,” “benefit perception,” and “public acceptance.” The risk perception is further disaggregated into “dread risk” and “unknown risk.” Additionally, a second survey was conducted after providing the students with additional information on global warming and CO₂ geological storage, and the effects of the information on their perceptions were evaluated. The effects of risk and benefit perceptions on public acceptance were evaluated and discussed based on the cognitive maps representing the perceptions before and after providing the information. The analyses revealed that the benefit perception was more influential than the risk perception on the public acceptance of CO₂ geological storage. The benefit perception increased greatly after providing the information; however, the unknown risk remained considerably large. Further, RD&D relating unknown risk, for example, the monitoring technology for stored CO₂ and the risk assessment of CO₂ leakage, and the supply of related information to the public would be beneficial for increasing the public acceptance.     

Climate change and human health—what influences the adoption of adaptation programming in the United States public health system?

With growing evidence on how climate change impacts human health, public health agencies should develop adaptation programs focused on the impacts predicted to affect their jurisdictions. However, recent research indicates that public health agencies in the United States have done little to prepare the public for predicted climate change impacts, largely due in response to a lack of resources and priority. This study surveyed Environmental Health (EH) Directors across the United States to determine the extent to which individual level attitudes and beliefs influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programming in a department. The results indicate that an EH Director’s perception of the health risk posed by climate change explained 27% of the variance in the number of climate change impacts being addressed. Furthermore, the study found that environmental attitude and political views made strong, unique contributions in explaining the variance in risk perception. The results provide evidence that individual-level attitudes and beliefs, as well as organizational-level barriers influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programs in public health agencies. As a result, increasing EH Directors’ perception of risk by highlighting the likelihood and severity of localized impacts may increase the adoption of adaptation programming despite existing organizational barriers (e.g., lack of resources). Given the fact that risk perception has been shown to influence behavior across cultures, these findings are also useful for understanding the influence of individual decision makers on public health programming around the world.     

基于信息源信任度的PM2.5健康风险认知研究

运用心理测量范式调查北京和南昌居民对PM2.5信息发布源的信任度以及健康风险认知,结果表明,居民信息源信任度仅为一般水平,专家和非政府组织信任度较高,政府信任度较低,北京居民信任度低于南昌居民,风险认知高于南昌居民.基于结构方程模型,构建风险认知影响机理模型,分析表明信任度对风险认知有显著影响,北京和南昌影响系数分别为0.244、0.183;个体特征能直接或通过信任度间接影响风险认知,北京和南昌总影响系数分别为0.222、0.214,其中个体基础信息(年龄、月收入、职业)、健康状况(儿童和老人数、自身健康状况、曾或正患呼吸疾病或心肺疾病)、居住位置与工作方式均对信任度和风险认知有显著影响.     

Constituting leadership via policy: Sweden as a pioneer of climate change mitigation

This paper examines Sweden’s role as a pioneer in mitigating climate change. Critical discourse analysis of climate and energy policy unveils Sweden’s ambition to ‘lead-by-example’, by virtue of a win–win combination of economy and environment via stringent regulations and an early-mover strategy on eco-innovations. The extent of the unilateral approach is constrained by concerns for the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries and a persistent debate on the fate of Swedish nuclear power. Whilst Sweden has made significant demonstrative progress in reducing emissions and introducing renewable energy sources, these issues may limit her role as a pioneer in years to come.     

Insuring Southeast Asian commercial forests: Fire risk analysis and the potential for use of data in risk pricing and reduction of forest fire risk

The author uses his own data gleaned from over 10 years of commercial forestry insurance across the world to propose that despite a low intrinsic fire risk across most of Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, commercial fire losses are unacceptably high, and could be reduced substantially within the current financial legal and political framework within which forestry companies operate. Opening with a statement about the dearth of forest fire loss data in the commercial sector, it is observed that the consequent inability of general insurers to estimate the rate of fire loss leads to very low insurance participation in forestry within Indonesia. A summary is then provided of the financial and environmental benefits of insurance participation in commercial forestry were this situation to be changed. A short discussion on risk perceptions is introduced to make the point that without reliable commercial forest fire loss data, risk perceptions of fire exposure in Southeast Asia by the financial sector, including insurers, is a barrier to risk transfer and investment. While real fire risk and perceived fire risk for Indonesia seem at present to be in agreement, the paper challenges that this should the case. Comparisons are made with different parts of the world with the knowledge that, in commercial terms, plantations in the low latitudes behave similarly everywhere in terms of fire causes, fire propagation factors, and characteristics of plantation or managed mixed forest fires. A review of the fire sizes within commercial forests is a good indicator of the efficiency of fire management strategies, and profiles from a high fire risk territory and Indonesia are compared. Using commercial and unidentified data the author then demonstrates that commercial growers in Indonesia have a high annual rate of forest fire loss and may also have a significant catastrophe fire exposure. This ‘cat’ exposure is far greater than for equivalent plantations in clearly higher fire risk environments. These conclusions are and should be discussed with forestry companies to change attitude and investment levels. Practical points for improved plantation fire management are made along with comments about the resources required. A parallel discussion then reviews fire risk assessment and management by the insurers to prevent their own ‘forest fire’ losses if they are to get further involved with the provision of Indonesian commercial forest risk transfer. The explanation of how insurers price risk within a portfolio helps identify the specific data needed for a proper risk management strategy to be developed.     

Institutional adaptive capacity and climate change response in the Congo Basin forests of Cameroon

Climate change presents additional challenges to a diverse country like Cameroon that shares the Congo Basin rainforest. Not only is the population vulnerable to the direct effects of climate change, forest-dependent communities are also vulnerable to changing environmental policy that may affect their access to forest resources. Using a qualitative approach to data collection through semi-structured interviews and content analysis of relevant documents, the perception of decision-makers within, and the response of the institutions of the state, the private sector and civil society to the complex challenges of climate change in the Congo Basin forest of Cameroon were analysed. Results indicate that while decision-makers’ awareness of climate change is high, a concrete institutional response is at a very early stage. Cameroon has low adaptive capacity that is further constrained by weak linkages among government institutions nationally and between different levels of government and with communities. Civil society institutions play a role in enhancing government capacity to respond, particularly in relation to new international policies on climate change and forests. Adaptive capacity would be further enhanced by facilitating institutional linkages and coordinating multilevel responses across all boundaries of government, private sector and civil society. A collaborative capacity builder could foster the transfer, receipt and integration of knowledge across the networks, and ultimately build long-term collaborative problem-solving capacity in Cameroon.     

Fires in tropical forests – what is really the problem? lessons from Indonesia

Fires have attracted interest and generated alarm since the early 1980s. This concern has been particularly evident in tropical forests of Southeast Asia and the Amazon, but disastrous fires in recent summers in Australia, Europe, and the United States have drawn worldwide attention. Concern about forest fires, and related air pollution and biodiversity impacts, led international organisations and northern countries – such as the Asian Development Bank, the European Union, the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the United Nations Environment Programme, the World Bank, and the government of Germany – to undertake fire assessments and provide technical assistance. Nongovernmental organisations, such as the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources and World Wide Fund for Nature, have also devoted increased attention to fires. Aiming at prevention of future fires, 40 fire projects and missions costing well over US$30 million have worked in Indonesia over the last 20 years. Despite the money and effort spent on them, fires continue to burn every year. It may appear to some that efforts to address the ‘fire problem’ have not been effective as fires still occur. There remains a lack of clarity about ‘fire problems’, which has, at times, led to the adoption of policies that may have negative impacts on livelihoods, the environment, and the economy. Two ‘simple’ changes in the way fires are considered would significantly improve fire-related policies and initiatives.

Understanding individual risk perceptions and preferences for climate change adaptations in biological conservation

Too little attention has been paid to the psychological factors (e.g., beliefs and perceptions) that determine the acceptability of conservation measures, despite the fact that all conservation occurs within a social context. Climate change in particular will demand adaptation strategies that may be cognitively difficult to accept. We conducted a survey online (n = 312) to examine preferences and perceived risks associated with a set of proposed adaptation strategies in a sample of the public. Preferences for proposed adaptation policies were significantly and negatively correlated with perceived risk in every case. Preferences also exhibited widespread conservatism with the greatest acceptance for measures most similar to the status quo, while environmental worldview and emotions of fear and anger appeared to influence perceived risk and acceptability. These results suggest that conservation planning should include considerations for risk perceptions, and greater support for certain conservation measures may be generated by deemphasizing their perceived novelty and emphasizing their contemporary usage.     

The European Union Solidarity Fund

This paper examines the legitimacy, viability and efficiency of the European Union Solidarity Fund by asking whether the Fund meets its stated purpose of providing solidarity within the EU, whether it is sufficiently capitalized and if it promotes disaster risk reduction in Europe. In examining these questions, we make use of ADAM models of disaster risks throughout Europe. We conclude that the Solidarity Fund falls short on all three counts, and we suggest possible alternatives. Most far-reaching, we explore whether the EUSF could support insurance systems in Europe by, among other possible activities, capitalizing national public-private insurance programs and providing support for government risk transfer. This would leverage the Fund’s capital and would overcome barriers to the provision of private and public sector insurance in uncertain catastrophe markets. It would also make insurance more affordable to Europe’s most vulnerable communities. Finally, it would reduce the disincentives for risk reduction inherent in post-disaster assistance.     

Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment

Local governments and communities have a critical role to play in adapting to climate variability and change. Spatial vulnerability assessment is one tool that can facilitate engagement between researchers and local stakeholders through the visualisation of climate vulnerability and the integration of its biophysical and socio-economic determinants. This has been demonstrated through a case study from Sydney, Australia where a bushfire vulnerability assessment was undertaken as the first-step in a project to investigate local government perceptions of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity. A series of relevant biophysical and socio-economic indicators was identified that represented the region’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity with respect to bushfires. These indicators were then combined to develop maps of net landscape vulnerability to bushfire. When presented in a workshop setting, vulnerability maps were successful in capturing the attention of stakeholders while simultaneously conveying information regarding the diversity of drivers that can contribute to current and future vulnerability. However, stakeholders were reluctant to embrace representations of vulnerability that differed from their own understanding of hazard, necessitating the demonstration of agreement between the vulnerability assessment and more conventional hazard assessment tools. This validation opened the door for public dissemination of vulnerability maps, the uptake and use of the assessment in local government risk assessment and adaptation planning, and more focused case-studies on barriers to adaptation.     

Neurobiology of the homing pigeon—a review

Homing pigeons are well known as good homers, and the knowledge of principal parameters determining their homing behaviour and the neurological basis for this have been elucidated in the last decades. Several orientation mechanisms and parameters—sun compass, earth’s magnetic field, olfactory cues, visual cues—are known to be involved in homing behaviour, whereas there are still controversial discussions about their detailed function and their importance. This paper attempts to review and summarise the present knowledge about pigeon homing by describing the known orientation mechanisms and factors, including their pros and cons. Additionally, behavioural features like motivation, experience, and track preferences are discussed. All behaviour has its origin in the brain and the neuronal basis of homing and the neuroanatomical particularities of homing pigeons are a main topic of this review. Homing pigeons have larger brains in comparison to other non-homing pigeon breeds and particularly show increased size of the hippocampus. This underlines our hypothesis that there is a relationship between hippocampus size and spatial ability. The role of the hippocampus in homing and its plasticity in response to navigational experience are discussed in support of this hypothesis.     

Brain modulation of Dufour’s gland ester biosynthesis in vitro in the honeybee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis mellifera</Emphasis>)

Caste-specific pheromone biosynthesis is a prerequisite for reproductive skew in the honeybee. Nonetheless, this process is not hardwired but plastic, in that egg-laying workers produce a queen-like pheromone. Studies with Dufour’s gland pheromone revealed that, in vivo, workers’ gland biosynthesis matches the social status of the worker, i.e., sterile workers showed a worker-like pattern whereas fertile workers showed a queen-like pattern (production of the queen-specific esters). However, when incubated in vitro, the gland spontaneously exhibits the queen-like pattern, irrespective of its original worker type, prompting the notion that ester production in workers is under inhibitory control that is queen-dependent. We tested this hypothesis by exposing queen or worker Dufour’s glands in vitro to brain extracts of queens, queenright (sterile) workers and males. Unexpectedly, worker brain extracts activated the queen-like esters biosynthesis in workers’ Dufour’s gland. This stimulation was gender-specific; queen or worker brains demonstrated a stimulatory activity, but male brains did not. Queen gland could not be further stimulated. Bioassays with heated and filtered extracts indicate that the stimulatory brain factor is below 3,000 Da. We suggest that pheromone production in Dufour’s gland is under dual, negative–positive control. Under queenright conditions, the inhibitor is released and blocks ester biosynthesis, whereas under queenless conditions, the activator is released, activating ester biosynthesis in the gland. This is consistent with the hypothesis that queenright workers are unequivocally recognized as non-fertile, whereas queenless workers try to become “false queens” as part of the reproductive competition.     

Swimming obstructed by dead-water

In nautical literature, ‘dead-water’ refers to the obstructive effect encountered by ships moving in stratified water due to the ship generating waves on an interface that separates different water masses. To investigate the hypothesis that open water swimming may also be obstructed by an encounter of dead-water, possibly causing drowning, we performed two experiments that assess the impact of stratified water on swimming. In the first experiment, subjects made a single front-crawl stroke while lying on a carriage that was rolling just above the water surface. The gain in kinetic energy, as a result of the stroke, was far less in stratified than in homogeneous water. In the second experiment, four subjects swam a short distance (5 m) in homogeneous and in two different settings of stratified water. At the same stroke frequency, swimming in stratified conditions was slower by 15%, implying a loss in propulsive power by 40%. Although in nature stratification will be less strong, extrapolation of the results suggests that dead-water might indeed obstruct swimming in open water as well. This effect will be most pronounced during fair weather, when stratification of a shallow surface layer is most easily established. Our findings indicate that swimmers’ anecdotal evidence on ‘water behaving strangely’ may have to be taken more seriously than previously thought.     

基于公众旱灾风险认知的灾害风险沟通研究

在越来越多的自然灾害风险防范中,风险沟通被作为一种工具以提高政府与公众风险消息交流成功的概率。公众的风险认知情况是影响灾害风险沟通成功的重要因素,如果没有洞察到公众对风险的感知与理解,有效的风险沟通几乎是不可能的。本文通过问卷调查,分析和评价了公众的旱灾风险认知水平,针对性别、受灾经历和风险消息传播媒介等对公众风险认知...     

Health officials’ perceptions of and preparedness for the impacts of climate variability on human health in the Somali region of Ethiopia

A proactive strategy to respond effectively to health impacts related to climate variability, particularly within vulnerable populations, is of vital importance. Such a strategy can be attained if health officials have a deep understanding of how climate variability affects human health and if the resources available for the health care sector are sufficient. This study assessed the perceptions and preparedness of health officials toward climate variability and health impacts in the Somali region of Ethiopia. The resources available for the health care sector were also assessed. The results show that approximately 80% of health officials were aware of the relationship between climate variability and human health impacts, but the majority of them were unable to project the future trend of related health problems in the region. The results also show an inadequate availability of health care resources, particularly in regards to infrastructure, numbers of health professionals, and training on climate variability and health. The results further revealed problems with poor living conditions, such as access to sanitation and safe water, for the majority of people in the study area. Climate variability is thus one of the many factors exacerbating the increasing trend of human health problems in the Somali region. Besides improving training to increase health officials’ knowledge of climate variability and human health impacts, the government should also address other factors that currently hinder a successful response to increasing disease prevalence.