基于DEMATEL-ANP的重大件船舶大风浪航行安全指标选取

为了改善重大件船舶在大风浪条件下航行的安全性,保证船舶、船员、重大件货物安全到港,在查阅大量文献、咨询专家并结合实际经验后,构建了重大件船舶大风浪安全指标体系。首次将DEMATEL-ANP(决策试验与评价实验室-网络分析法)方法引入大风浪安全领域,建立了重大件船舶大风浪航行安全的DEMATEL-ANP结构。通过DEMATEL方法计算了指标间综合影响矩阵,并绘制因果图对各指标进行分类。借助综合影响矩阵和重大件船舶大风浪安全指标体系,通过ANP方法梳理网络结构并计算了混合权重。确定了对安全影响较大的指标,并对其进行管控。通过与AHP方法的对比,表明该方法更加合理、客观地考虑了指标间的相互影响,提出的DEMATEL-ANP结构合理、可行,能够很好地应用于大风浪安全领域,对保证船舶安全具有一定的指导意义。     

海上火车渡轮航行安全的研究

海上火车轮渡在国外得到了广泛的应用并取得了新进展,但在我国尚属空白。海上火车轮渡应是我国交通发展的方向之一。海上火车渡轮的航行安全是海上火车轮渡工程的关键问题。从船舶安全、装载货物安全、人员安全三方面,对影响渡轮航行安全的各因素进行了分析与论述,同时提出了相应的安全对策与措施     

基于旅客风险分类的安检流程研究

为解决铁路客运站旅客安检用时久、效率低等问题,分析国内铁路客运站安检服务流程现状,研究基于旅客风险等级分类的差异化安检流程,提出安检排队优化策略。根据旅客不同的风险等级将其划分为高风险旅客与低风险旅客,并设定对应的重点安检通道和常规安检通道。运用Anylogic软件构建安检模拟场景,采用2种安检方案仿真模拟实际安检流程,分析旅客风险阈值和2类通道的配置数对旅客平均安检时长的影响,并找出最优化的风险阈值和安检通道配置数。结果表明:当风险阈值μ为0.7时,总通道的平均安检时长达到最小值,通过设定的合理风险阈值及配置适当的安检通道数量可有效提升安检效率。     

船员心理素质与航运安全探讨

船员长期生活在大海特殊的自然环境和船舶特殊的人造环境中,多种复杂因素交互作用,弱化了远洋船员心理素质,导致船员心理问题的频频出现。研究人员调查发现：将近80%的船舶事故是人为因素造成的,而人为因素引起的航运安全事故基本上是由船员良的心理素质导致的。通过对船员心理健康指标和典型案例分析,提出改变不良心理素质的措施和在航条件下的心理干预。     

船舶设备事故中的人为因素分析与控制研究

根据设备维修系统设备维修的人为失误环节和船员失误分析模式以及轮机管理人员具有明感知设备的运行状态、隐感知设备的故障趋势等特点,实施有效管控措施。结合航运市场特性,基于设备可靠度,提出风险性和经济性的维修方式策略,可大幅提高航运公司的安全航运水平和经济效益。利用维修系统的信息流,建立了船舶设备维修管理信息系统,整合设备运行状态、船员的综合素质状态及组织管理信息,以便于阻断导致事故发生的事件链,提高航运公司的船舶运输安全。     

基于突变理论的近海船舶航行安全评价

基于船舶航行安全评价在海事预防与管理中的重要性,从"人-机-环境-管理"指标体系出发,结合近海航行船舶的特点及影响安全的因素,建立一个定量指标为主、定性指标为辅的4级安全评价体系;结合突变级数法和模糊综合评价对近海船舶航行安全进行评价和预测;最后以秦皇岛海域的5艘航行船舶为例进行实例演示。结果表明:用突变级数法对近海船舶航行进行安全评价得出的结论与实际情况基本吻合。应用突变级数法对近海船舶的安全状况进行实时监控、评价和预测,有助于海上运输的安全管理。     

铁路客运站疏散安全风险分析与对策研究——以乌鲁木齐站为例

本文对乌鲁木齐站疏散安全进行分析研究。经乌鲁木齐站客流数据分析得,日均客流量1.78万人,日常高峰时段客流量2.4万人,每日早高峰客流在9:00～12:00之间,晚间客流高峰在18:00～24:00之间。乌鲁木齐站以原有疏散能力计算,日常高峰时段旅客平均排队时间为36.7min,其他特殊时段旅客积压排队现象更长,造成旅客需要提前1.3～2.0小时排队进站。影响乌鲁木齐站疏散安全的主要原因包括疏散设施未全部投入使用,安检设备通过能力有限,旅客疏散路线复杂等。笔者从疏散路径、疏散设施和疏散管理等方面提出疏散安全风险控制的对策和建议。     

地铁乘客疏散帮助行为及其影响因素的SEM模型*

为研究地铁疏散中乘客帮助行为及其影响因素之间的作用机制,通过对武汉市地铁站乘客疏散行为进行问卷调查,从普通乘客特征、特殊群体特征、安全认知、疏散环境和恐慌心理5个维度出发,构建地铁乘客疏散帮助行为及其影响因素的结构方程模型。研究结果表明:普通乘客特征、特殊群体特征、安全认知对帮助行为具有直接正向影响,其中安全认知对乘客是否提供帮助行为的影响最大;恐慌心理、疏散环境对帮助行为具有直接负向影响,其中恐慌心理影响较大;安全认知还通过中介变量普通乘客特征、特殊群体特征、疏散环境和恐慌心理对帮助行为产生间接影响。     

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a monitoring system for improved evacuation from passenger ships

This paper presents an evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of a novel passenger monitoring system based on RFID technology for implementation onboard passenger ships. Such a system will be able to detect and keep track of passengers onboard the ship in emergency situations in order to provide crucial decision support to the officer in charge of evacuation. This will lead to increased safety and security on passenger ships. However, this increased safety will come at a certain cost. A methodology in line with Formal Safety Assessment is employed in order to assess the cost-effectiveness of the system, involving a thorough risk analysis.     

Ports’ service attributes for ship navigation safety

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the service attributes of ports for ship navigation safety. Based on the relevant literature and the features of ship navigation in ports, the service attributes of ports for ship navigation were first investigated. A fuzzy AHP model was then used to identify those attributes from shipmasters’ perspectives. Finally, a Dissatisfaction Attitude (DA) index was used to determine the attributes’ priorities, by which the port authorities may make policies for improving ship navigation safety. As an empirical study, the shipmasters berthing their ships in Kaohsiung Port were surveyed to validate the model. The result constructs 19 port service attributes (SAs) for ship navigation safety, in which, the shipmasters place more emphasis on the SAs of operators’ professional literacy, including the marine pilot’s professional and English communication abilities, the VTC (Vessel Traffic Center) regulator’s professional and English communication abilities, and the tugboat driver’s skills. While, for Kaohsiung Port, currently, the traffic control of fairway is the most important aspect to be improved. The theoretical and managerial implications of the findings for port authorities in improving ship navigation safety are discussed.     

Driving, navigation, and vehicular technology: experiences of older drivers and their co-pilots

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this article is to explore relationship between older drivers and their passengers (co-pilots) and potential implications of in-vehicle navigation technology on their driving safety. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 44 healthy, community-dwelling older adults (aged 60-83) or 22 married couples. Males identified themselves as drivers and females identified themselves as passengers (i.e., co-pilot). RESULTS: Findings indicate that operating a motor vehicle in older adulthood is a shared activity between drivers and passengers. Older drivers and co-pilots reported their level of interaction depended on their familiarity with their route. Navigating unfamiliar areas, particularly large urban centers, was identified as the most challenging driving situation. Participants identified their level of collaboration would increase with the advent of in-vehicle navigation technology. Safety concerns related to the use of this technology, included distraction of both drivers and passengers. Differences amongst couples in their perceptions of using this technology were linked to their level of experience with using other forms of technology. CONCLUSIONS: Older drivers and passengers identified working closely together when operating a motor vehicle. Further investigation into the effects of in-vehicle navigation technology on the driving safety of older drivers and their co-pilots is warranted.     

基于DEMATEL方法的海运行为形成因子影响关系分析

为揭示并量化海运人因可靠性分析(HRA)中行为形成因子(PSF)间复杂的影响关系,采用DEMATEL方法对航海人员值班任务中9个PSF的依赖关系进行建模和分析,并验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:船上组织的完善程度、驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、可用时间等PSF在系统中的作用大;船上组织的完善程度、人机界面(MMI)与运行支持的完善性、值班区间以及培训和准备的充分性4个PSF为原因因素,驾驶台班组成员的合作质量、同时出现的目标任务数量、可用时间、船上工作及船舶航行条件和操作规程/计划的可用性5个PSF为结果因素。安全管理人员应针对作用大或原因因素中的PSF制定安全管理措施,改善情景环境,提高人因可靠性。     

考虑旅客携行行为的安检系统服务参数优化研究*

为提高公共交通安检系统服务效率,考虑旅客“绕行取行李”“等待取行李”的携行行为,分析安检系统服务流程,构建安检系统的Jackson排队网络模型;分析旅客人体安检和行李安检之间的速度差,厘定在携行行为条件下及不同情境中旅客提取行李前的等待时间,并修正安检系统的Jackson排队网络模型;优化安检系统服务参数,实现系统服务设施的最优配置;以某公共客运站为研究对象,进行案例验证分析。结果表明:优化模型不仅能改善安检服务设施配置效率,而且显著降低系统稳态条件下的平均等待队长;增加“绕行取行李”行为的旅客比例能显著降低旅客提取行李前的平均等待时间。     

Passenger behavior in trains during emergency situations

IntroductionThis research presents a methodology for analyzing the behavior of people (passengers and crew) involved in emergency situations on passenger trains.MethodsThis methodological tool centers around a qualitative character study coming from Focus Groups (FG) and in-depth interviews to extract the determinant variables on passenger and crew behavior when faced with certain emergency situations on trains.ResultsThis research has led to the creation of a classification of possible behaviors associated to each type of incident and dependent on certain variables. The qualitative study was used as the basis for modeling stated preference data using logit type discrete choice models to characterize and quantify the behavior. The most important results show that the determinant variables on passenger behavior correspond to the type of emergency suffered (its degree of seriousness), the type of passenger, the reasons for the journey (demands of time), the information received during the incident, the relationship between crew and passengers, the duration of the incident and the conditions (temperature control, availability of water, occupancy of the train), the distance to the destination station, and finally, the outside weather conditions. This research was carried out using the Spanish railway network as its reference, although it is applicable to any geographical area.Impact on IndustryThe results show that the information variable should be considered in the development of future research and that the evidences of this research can be used to develop behavioral models for modeling railway passenger evacuations.     

Designing for safety in passenger ships utilizing advanced evacuation analyses—A risk based approach

This paper describes a novel set of well-defined evacuation scenarios for use in advanced evacuation analyses of passenger ships according to present maritime safety regulations. The scenarios are based on a recently performed risk assessment of passenger ship evacuation and can be related to actual accident scenarios, covering the major hazards passenger ships are exposed to. Furthermore, a risk-based methodology for using the set of scenarios in evacuation performance evaluation is proposed and it is demonstrated how the scenarios can be used to relate actual design options to the overall level of risk associated with the ship.The paper includes a brief introduction and describes the background for developing the evacuation scenarios. The results from a recently performed risk assessment is reviewed and it is explained how this can be used as basis for deriving a complete set of realistic evacuation scenarios. Furthermore, it is outlined how to use the evacuation scenarios to estimate the overall risk associated with a specific passenger ship. Finally, possible future developments of the maritime safety regulations have been discussed and it has been demonstrated how the proposed set of scenarios will facilitate the emergence of truly risk based probabilistic safety regulations.     

Ergonomic assessment of selected workstations on a merchant ship

This study describes some key ergonomic factors within the engine room, navigation bridge and other locations of a merchant ship. Ergonomic assessments were carried out on a crew of a merchant ship. The study examines the importance of factors such as noise, vibration, heat radiation (in machinery areas), psychological stress and ergonomics of the physical arrangement of the navigation bridge. It also addresses the effect of working in confined areas for a long duration and the need to process large amounts of data, decision-making and the influence of specific operating conditions in different areas of a ship. This study includes analysis of workstations, working methods and the burden of environmental factors as well as a discussion of specific marine environmental conditions such as confined working and leisure spaces, long-term family and sociocultural separation, frequent changes in climate and time zones, and temporary physical overload and long-term psychological burdens.     

高速动车组列车运营环境旅客舒适度调查分析

为了解目前高速动车组列车舒适性现状,构建我国动车组卫生标准体系提供科学依据,根据《TB/T 1932—2014旅客列车卫生及监测技术规定》的规定,将影响舒适度的因素分为车内环境品质因素、旅客个人因素、服务因素3个方面20个指标,对石太客运专线、大西高速铁路运营的列车开展旅客舒适度问卷调查。调查数据表明,调查的高速动车组列车运营环境中车内温度、车内照明度、衣着量3个指标的舒适度评分均值在旅客舒适度评分最佳值±5%的区域,其余指标舒适度评分均值尚未进入旅客舒适度评分最佳值±5%的区域;进而提出应在车内环境因素、服务因素等方面加以改进,不断改善高速动车组列车运营环境。     

加强铁路集中空调通风系统管理的探讨

为避免集中空调通风系统传播、扩散空气传播性疾病的安全隐患,在概述集中空调通风系统在某铁路局集团公司客运站应用的基础上,从首选自然通风、确保供风安全、加强通风系统清洗消毒等方面说明加强铁路客运站通风系统管理的措施,提出明确责任分工、健全卫生管理制度、开展卫生学评价、做好监督检查和应急处理等保障措施,从而有效阻断传播途径,保障广大旅客和铁路工作人员身体健康。     

The effect of aviation safety education on passenger cabin safety awareness

This paper examines the effect of aviation safety education on passenger cabin safety awareness in knowledge, attitude, and behavior (KAB). The educational value of KAB has been addressed in various fields such as AIDS prevention and campus safety. KAB has been applied in aviation safety related areas, especially in training, such as crew resource management training, pilot training, and mechanic training. However, KAB has not been implemented in aviation passenger education in cabin safety. This paper uses the construct of “aviation safety education”, which is intended to influence airline passenger knowledge of, attitude toward, and behavior about cabin safety awareness. Passenger surveys were done at two Taiwan airports. The results show that aviation safety education positively affects airline passenger cabin safety knowledge, attitude, and behavior. We recommend safety education that involves accurate instruction about emergency equipment procedures, situational awareness, emergency responses, and relevant cabin-safety regulations.Our findings indicated that an increase in cabin safety knowledge positively affected airline passenger behavior, which supported knowledge–behavior consistency. We also found that a positive attitude toward cabin safety positively affected airline passenger behavior, which supported attitude–behavior consistency. The hypothesis that cabin safety knowledge positively affected passenger attitude – knowledge–attitude consistency was not supported.     

基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。