基于改进最优迈步模型的楼梯区域疏散模拟

面对火灾等紧急事件,如何从多层和高层建筑内快速有效地疏散人群是火灾安全研究的一个重要课题。针对楼梯间这一重要疏散场景,考虑行人在台阶与转角平台处的迈步特征差别,在转角平台提出并采用圆形连续场域的生成法和运动规则,构建了一种改进的最优迈步模型。利用该模型重现了NIST进行的疏散演习场景,并从实时疏散人数、总疏散时间和基本图等方面进行了分析。结果表明:模型符合真实楼梯间行人疏散特性,可用于楼梯区域行人流的研究和分析。     

Large scale high pressure jet fires involving natural gas and natural gas/hydrogen mixtures

A series of six large scale high pressure jet fires were conducted using natural gas and natural gas/hydrogen mixtures. Three tests involved natural gas and three involved a mixture of natural gas and hydrogen containing approximately 24% by volume hydrogen. For each fuel, the three tests involved horizontal releases from 20, 35 and 50 mm diameter holes at a gauge pressure of approximately 60 bar. During the experiments, the flame length and the incident radiation field produced around the fire were measured. The fires also engulfed a 1 m diameter horizontal pipe placed across the flow direction and about halfway along the flame. This pipe was instrumented to measure the heat fluxes to the pipe. The data obtained is compared with previous data obtained for various hydrocarbons at large scale.     

人员疏散准备时间及其对火灾风险评估结果的影响

火灾时人员的有效避难评估是火灾风险评估中的重要组成部分.作为人员疏散时间中重要组成部分的疏散准备时间服从概率分布,而通常计算中往往将其简单取为常数.将人员疏散准备时间简单取为常数时,有可能产生模拟计算结果比实际偏差大、疏散情形与真实情况不符的情况.以一座办公建筑为例进行了计算,将人员疏散准备时间简单取为常数时与人员疏散时间服从正态分布的情况进行了比较,并分析了对火灾风险评估结果的影响.     

Driver speed selection and crash risk: Insights from the naturalistic driving study

IntroductionThis study investigates how speed limits affect driver speed selection, as well as the related crash risk, while controlling for various confounding factors such as traffic volumes and roadway geometry. Data from a naturalistic driving study are used to examine how driver speed selection varies among freeways with different posted speed limits, as well as how the likelihood of crash/near-crash events change with respect to mean speed and standard deviation.MethodRegression models are estimated to assess three measures of interest: the average speed of vehicles during the time preceding crash/near-crash and baseline (i.e., normal) driving events; the variation in travel speeds leading up to each event as quantified by the standard deviation in speeds over this period; and the probability of a specific event resulting in a crash/near-crash based on speed selection and other factors.ResultsSpeeds were relatively stable across levels-of-service A and B, within a range of 1.5 mph on average. Speeds were marginally lower (3.3 mph) on freeways posted at 65 mph versus 70 mph. In comparison, speeds were approximately 10.2 to 13.4 mph lower on facilities posted at 55 mph or 60 mph. Speeds were shown to be 2.5 mph lower in rainy weather and 11 mph lower under snow or sleet.ConclusionsSignificant correlation was observed with respect to speed selection behavior among the same individuals. Mean speeds are shown to increase with speed limits. However, these increases are less pronounced at higher speed limits. Drivers tend to reduce their travel speeds in presence of junctions and work zones, under adverse weather conditions, and particularly under heavy congestion. Crash risk increased with the standard deviation in speed, as well as on vertical curves and ramp junctions, and among the youngest and oldest age groups of drivers.     

人员疏散时间预测与分析

由于大量火灾事故的不断发生,火灾防范和安全疏散成为一个重要的研究课题。为了探讨人员疏散规律,笔者应用排队论知识及结合“社会力”模型,并综合考虑到建筑结构特征、人员密度及个体的作用和差异,建立了人员疏散模型。通过计算机模拟确定人员疏散时间,结合实例阐述了出口宽度等建筑结构特征、人员密度与疏散时间的关系,结果表明,该模型得到的结果与实际基本相符。通过对人员疏散规律的研究,可以帮助人们优化建筑物的内部结构,特别是门宽,疏散通道的个数,从而加快紧急情况时的疏散速度,减少人员的伤亡;还可以帮助人们设计出正确的管理措施,保证大规模的群众集会时的人员的安全。     

Raising the speed limit from 75 to 80 mph on Utah rural interstates: Effects on vehicle speeds and speed variance

IntroductionIn November 2010 and October 2013, Utah increased speed limits on sections of rural interstates from 75 to 80 mph. Effects on vehicle speeds and speed variance were examined.MethodsSpeeds were measured in May 2010 and May 2014 within the new 80 mph zones, and at a nearby spillover site and at more distant control sites where speed limits remained 75 mph. Log-linear regression models estimated percentage changes in speed variance and mean speeds for passenger vehicles and large trucks associated with the speed limit increase. Logistic regression models estimated effects on the probability of passenger vehicles exceeding 80, 85, or 90 mph and large trucks exceeding 80 mph.ResultsWithin the 80 mph zones and at the spillover location in 2014, mean passenger vehicle speeds were significantly higher (4.1% and 3.5%, respectively), as were the probabilities that passenger vehicles exceeded 80 mph (122.3% and 88.5%, respectively), than would have been expected without the speed limit increase. Probabilities that passenger vehicles exceeded 85 and 90 mph were non-significantly higher than expected within the 80 mph zones. For large trucks, the mean speed and probability of exceeding 80 mph were higher than expected within the 80 mph zones. Only the increase in mean speed was significant. Raising the speed limit was associated with non-significant increases in speed variance.ConclusionsThe study adds to the wealth of evidence that increasing speed limits leads to higher travel speeds and an increased probability of exceeding the new speed limit. Results moreover contradict the claim that increasing speed limits reduces speed variance.Practical applicationsAlthough the estimated increases in mean vehicle speeds may appear modest, prior research suggests such increases would be associated with substantial increases in fatal or injury crashes. This should be considered by lawmakers considering increasing speed limits.     

Using a cluster randomized controlled trial to determine the effects of intervention of battery and hardwired smoke alarms in New South Wales,Australia: Home fire safety checks pilot program

IntroductionIn 2014, Fire & Rescue New South Wales piloted the delivery of its home fire safety checks program (HFSC) aimed at engaging and educating targeted top “at risk” groups to prevent and prepare for fire. This pilot study aimed to assess the effectiveness of smoke alarms using a cluster randomized controlled trial.MethodsSurvey questionnaires were distributed to the households that had participated in the HFSC program (intervention group). A separate survey questionnaire was distributed to the control group that was identified with similar characteristics to the intervention group in the same suburb. To adjust for potential clustering effects, generalized estimation equations with a log link were used.ResultsMultivariable analyses revealed that battery and hardwired smoking alarm usage increased by 9% and 3% respectively among the intervention group compared to the control group. Females were more likely to install battery smoke alarms than males. Respondents who possessed a certificate or diploma (AOR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.00–1.70, P = 0.047) and those who were educated up to years 8–12 (AOR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.06–1.64, P = 0.012) were significantly more likely to install battery smoke alarms than those who completed bachelor degrees. Conversely, holders of a certificate or diploma and people who were educated up to years 8–12 were 31% (AOR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.52–0.93, P = 0.014) and 24% (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.60–0.95, P = 0.015) significantly less likely to install a hardwired smoke alarm compared to those who completed bachelor degrees.ConclusionsThis pilot study provided evidence of the benefit of the HFSC in New South Wales. Practical Applications: Fire safety intervention programs, like HFSC, need to be targeted to male adults with lower level of schooling even when they are aware of their risks.     

Experimental study on an ultra high-rise building evacuation in China

With the development of modern cities, more and more ultra high-rise buildings have been built. Emergency evacuation of such buildings becomes one of the major concerns for building designers, building occupants and governments, especially after the disaster of 9/11. In this study we designed three experiments to investigate the process of ultra high-rise building evacuation. The experiments were performed in Shanghai World Financial Center, which is about 470 m tall. In the first experiment, the evacuation of a single pedestrian from the top floor to the first floor was performed. Movement characteristics such as mean speed and the time needed for evacuation were analyzed. In the second experiment, the mass evacuation process was captured by video cameras and the data were extracted out manually. The evacuees were distributed initially on floors 12–17, and were asked to evacuate through a staircase onto the refuge floor. On the refuge floor, i.e. the 6th floor, the evacuees were required to transit into another staircase to keep moving down to the ground floor. The characteristic space–time curves for each evacuee were extracted and analyzed. Parameters such as the mean speed and the evacuation time, as well as the characteristic of the transit process from one staircase to another were investigated. We at last mimicked and discussed the process of lift evacuation for an ultra high-rise building in the 3rd experiment. Evacuees located on the 41st and 65th floor were asked to move downward by stairs until they came to the refuge floors, where they would evacuate to the ground floor by lifts. The time characteristic of the mixed evacuation strategy was discussed. The basic data obtained from the experiments are useful for building designers and can be used to validate and refine ultra high-rise building evacuation models.     

Experimental study on vented gas explosion in a cylindrical vessel with a vent duct

A study of vented explosions in a length over diameter (L/D) of 2 in cylindrical vessel connecting with a vent duct (L/D = 7) is reported. The influence of vent burst pressure and ignition locations on the maximum overpressure and flame speeds at constant vent coefficient, K of 16.4 were investigated to elucidate how these parameters affect the severity of a vented explosion. Propane and methane/air mixtures were studied with equivalence ratio, Φ ranges from 0.8 to 1.6. It is demonstrated that end ignition exhibited higher maximum overpressures and flame speeds in comparison to central ignition, contrary to what is reported in literature. There was a large acceleration of the flame toward the duct due to the development of cellular flames and end ignition demonstrated to have higher flame speeds prior to entry into the vent due to the larger flame distance. The higher vent flow velocities and subsequent flame speeds were responsible for the higher overpressures obtained. Rich mixtures for propane/air mixtures at Φ = 1.35 had the greatest flame acceleration and the highest overpressures. In addition, the results showed that Bartknecht's gas explosion venting correlation is grossly overestimated the overpressure for K = 16.4 and thus, misleading the impact of the vent burst pressure.     

Determination of the applicable exhaust airflow rate through a ventilation shaft in the case of road tunnel fires

In this study, a model experiment in a long road tunnel employing the longitudinal ventilation system with a ventilation shaft is carried out during a fire accident to determine the optimum exhaust airflow rate through the ventilation shaft. The appropriate operation of the shaft fan according to the position of fire is investigated, and the optimum exhaust airflow rate for prevention of smoke spreading through the tunnel is determined based on the entire exhaust of both smoke and airflow generated by fire and jet fan operation, respectively. As a result of using the amount of smoke, the critical air velocity produced by jet fans, the effective cross-sectional area of a tunnel and the correction factor, a formula for exhaust airflow rate is drived. In addition, a correction factor (α = 1.1) for the thermal expansion caused by heat of a 20 MW fire is determined theoretically and experimentally. It is expected that this study will contribute to plan the shaft operation for the emergency ventilation as well as provide the preliminary data to design the airflow rate of shaft.     

Distracting behaviors among teenagers and young,middle-aged,and older adult drivers when driving without and with warnings from an integrated vehicle safety system

IntroductionNegative reinforcement from crash warnings may reduce the likelihood that drivers engage in distracted driving. Alternatively, drivers may compensate for the perceived safety benefit of crash warnings by engaging in distractions more frequently, especially at higher speeds. The purpose of this study was to examine whether warning feedback from an integrated vehicle-based safety system affected the likelihood that various secondary behaviors were present among drivers ages 16–17, 20–30, 40–50, and 60–70.MethodParticipants drove an instrumented sedan with various collision warning systems for an extended period. Ten 5-second video clips were randomly sampled from driving periods at speeds above 25 mph and below 5 mph each week for each driver and coded for the presence of 11 secondary behaviors.ResultsAt least one secondary behavior was present in 46% of video clips; conversing with a passenger (17%), personal grooming (9%), and cellphone conversation (6%) were the most common. The likelihood that at least one secondary behavior was present was not significantly different during periods when drivers received warnings relative to periods without warnings. At least one secondary behavior was 21% more likely to be present at speeds below 5 mph relative to speeds above 25 mph; however, the effect of vehicle speed was not significantly affected by warning presence. Separate models for each of the five most common secondary behaviors also indicated that warnings had no significant effect on the likelihood that each behavior was present.ConclusionsCollision warnings were not associated with significant increases or decreases in the overall likelihood that teen and adult drivers engaged in secondary behaviors or the likelihood of the behaviors at speeds above 25 mph or below 5 mph.Practical applicationsThere was no evidence that forward collision warning and other technologies like those in this study will increase or decrease distracted driving.     

The explosion overpressure field and flame propagation of methane/air and methane/coal dust/air mixtures

The explosion of the methane/air mixture and the methane/coal dust/air mixture under 40 J center spark ignition condition was experimentally studied in a large-scale system of 10 m³ vessel. Five pressure sensors were arranged in space with different distances from the ignition point. A high-speed camera system was used to record the growth of the flame. The maximum overpressure of the methane/air mixture appeared at 0.75 m away from the ignition point; the thickness of the flame was about 10 mm and the propagation speed of the flame fluctuated around 2.5 m/s with the methane concentration of 9.5%. The maximum overpressure of the methane/coal dust/air mixture appeared at 0.5 m. The flame had a structure of three concentric zones from outside were the red zone, the yellow illuminating zone and the bright white illuminating zone respectively; the thickness and the propagation speed of the flame increased gradually, the thickness of red zone and yellow illuminating zone reached 3.5 cm and 1 cm, the speed reached 9.2 m/s at 28 ms.     

Removal of toluene vapour from air stream using a biofilter packed with polyurethane foam

Biodegradation of toluene vapour was investigated for 168 days in a polyurethane packed biofilter inoculated with a mixed microbial population. Biofilter consisted of five square cross-section modular units each of size 0.16 m × 0.16 m × 0.20 m and filled with the polyurethane foam cubes up to a height of 0.15 m. Inlet concentration of toluene was varied from 0.04 to 2.5 g m^?3 and the volumetric flow rate of toluene loaded air from 0.06 to 0.90 m³ h^?1.Depending upon initial loading rates, removal efficiency ranging from 68.2 to 99.9% and elimination capacity ranging from 10.85 to 90.48 g h^?1 m^?3 were observed during steady state operations. More than 90% removal efficiency was observed up to an inlet loading rate of 76.3 g h^?1 m^?3. High carbon recovery (>90%) indicated effective biodegradation in the bed. Low variation of pH (7.2–8.8) and pressure drop (45.8–76.3 Pa) was observed. The stability of the biomass was evident from the fast response of the biofilter to shutdown and restartup.     

Experimental investigation on the impact sensitivity of a match head composition influenced by the surface roughness of in-process contact materials

This study is aimed to investigate the influence of contact materials and their surface roughness on impact sensitivity of a match head composition. It was found that there were variations to the impact sensitivity, ranging from 2 to 14.7 J. The sensitivity response was quicker in case of steel–steel anvil combinations than with aluminium–aluminium anvil and brass–brass anvil combinations. The match head composition was found to be highly hazardous at the surface roughness values of 1.67, 1.80, and 1.60 μm for steel, aluminium and brass material surfaces, respectively. Such data are not available hitherto.     

Explosibility of fine graphite and tungsten dusts and their mixtures

To evaluate the explosion hazard of ITER-relevant dusts, a standard method of 20-l-sphere was used to measure the explosion indices of fine graphite and tungsten dusts and their mixtures. The effect of dust particle size was studied on the maximum overpressures, maximum rates of pressure rise, and lower explosive concentrations of graphite dusts in the range 4 μm to 45 μm. The explosion indices of 1 μm tungsten dust and its mixtures with 4 μm graphite dust were measured. The explosibility of these dusts and mixtures were evaluated. The dusts tested were ranked as St1 class. Dust particle size was shown to be very important for explosion properties. The finest graphite dust appeared to have the lowest minimum explosion concentration and be able to explode with 2 kJ ignition energy.     

Human behaviour and evacuation time for large underground comprehensive buildings during fire risk process

Human factors play an indispensable role in process safety during fire risk process. Fire evacuation of underground comprehensive buildings is a critical consideration for practical importance. Here, evacuation experiments were conducted in the Guangzhou East Railway Station Plaza, a large underground comprehensive building in Guangdong, China, with the plaza occupants as the participants. The evacuation factors, namely evacuation time and evacuee-selected evacuation routes, were evaluated using empirical equations (the Togawa model and the Melinek and Booth model) and evacuation modelling software (EVACNET 4 and composite occupant evacuation model). The experimental data were used to verify the empirical equations and evacuation models and to modify specific empirical parameters. The effect on escape route judgement and selection under emergency situations was analysed. The results demonstrated that direct access to outdoor exits could considerably reduce evacuation time. The experimental N and t_s were 1 person/m·s and 28 s, respectively. The total evacuation time was 281 s, and the EVACNET 4 and composite models’ simulations of safe evacuation were 285–290 s, which was consistent with the experimental data—validating the high accuracy and applicability of the models.     

Fire and Explosion Characteristics of 3-Methyl Pyridine at 270°C with High Oxygen Concentrations

The mixture of 3-methyl pyridine (3-picoline) and steam is used in the production of vitamin B3 in the gas phase. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of inert steam (H₂O) on the flammability characteristics of 3-picoline in the manufacturing process. Four practical vapour mixing ratios of 3-picoline/steam mixtures, 5, 10, 30 and 100 vol% 3-picoline, were selected in this study. A series of flammability tests were employed for determining their fire and explosion characteristics. Fire tests H₂O: 3-picoline 5,10, 30 and 100 vol% were carried out in a 20-L-Apparatus under simulated conditions of 760 mmHg, 270°C, together with high oxygen concentrations (42 and 21 vol%) used in the real process.The experimental results showed that the safety-related parameters and flammability hazard degrees were all able to be significantly reduced while substantial amount of steam was infused into the 3-picoline/steam system. While the steam proportion was up to 97 vol%, 3-picoline/steam would be non-flammable. As a result, dosing steam to the process is one of the effective methods to prevent the relevant processes from incurring fire and explosion hazards, not to mention its economical benefit.     

Does a tow-bar increase the risk of neck injury in rear-end collisions?

IntroductionDoes a tow-bar increase the risk of neck injury in the struck car in a rear-end collision? The rear part of a modern car has collision zones that are rendered nonoperational when the car is equipped with a tow-bar. Past crash tests have shown that a car's acceleration was higher in a car equipped with a tow-bar and also that a dummy placed in a car with a tow-bar had higher peak acceleration in the lower neck area.MethodThis study aimed to investigate the association between the risk of neck injury in drivers and passengers, and the presence of a registered tow-bar on the struck car in a rear-end collision. We performed a merger of police reports, the National Hospital Discharge Registry, and the National Registry of Motor Vehicles in Denmark. We identified 9,370 drivers and passengers of whom 1,519 were diagnosed with neck injury within the first year after the collision. We found a statistically insignificant 5% decrease in the risk of neck injury in the occupants of the struck car when a tow-bar was fitted compared to when it was not fitted (hazard ratio = 0.95; 95% confidence level = 0.85–1.05; p = 0.32). The result was controlled for gender, age, and the seat of the occupant. Several other collision and car characteristics and demographic information on the drivers and passengers were evaluated as confounders but were not statistically significant.ConclusionsThe present study may serve as valuable input for a meta-analysis on the effect of a tow-bar because negative results are necessary in order to avoid publication bias.     

Large scale experiments to study fires following the rupture of high pressure pipelines conveying natural gas and natural gas/hydrogen mixtures

As part of the EC funded Naturalhy project, two large scale experiments were conducted to study the hazard presented by the rupture of high pressure transmission pipelines conveying natural gas or a natural gas/hydrogen mixture containing approximately 22% hydrogen by volume. The experiments involved complete rupture of a 150 mm diameter pipeline pressurised to nominally 70 bar. The released gas was ignited and formed a fireball which rose upwards and then burned out. It was followed by a jet fire which continued to increase in length, reaching a maximum of about 100 m before steadily declining as the pipeline depressurised. During the experiments, the flame length and the incident radiation field produced around the fire were measured. Measurements of the overpressure due to pipeline rupture and gas ignition were also recorded. The results showed that the addition of the hydrogen to the natural gas made little difference to radiative characteristics of the fires. However, the fraction of heat radiated by these pipeline fires was significantly higher than that observed for above ground high pressure jet fires (also conducted as part of the Naturalhy project) which achieved flame lengths up to 50 m. Due to the lower density, the natural gas/hydrogen mixture depressurised more quickly and also had a slightly reduced power. Hence, the pipeline conveying the natural gas/hydrogen mixture resulted in a slightly lower hazard in terms of thermal dose compared to the natural gas pipeline, when operating at the same pressure.