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1.
IntroductionThe comparative analysis of macroscopic trends in road safety has been a popular research topic. The objective of this research is to propose a simple and, at the same time, reliable multiple regime model framework for international road safety comparisons, allowing for the identification of slope changes of personal risk curves and respective breakpoints. MethodThe trends of road traffic fatalities in several EU countries have been examined through the temporal evolution of elementary socioeconomic indicators, namely motorized vehicle fleet and population, at the country level. ResultsPiece-wise linear regression models have been fitted, using a methodology that allows the simultaneous estimation of all slopes and breakpoints. The number and location of breakpoints, as well as the slope of the connecting trends, vary among countries, thus indicating different road safety evolution patterns. Impact on industryMacroscopic analysis of road accident trends may be proved beneficial for the identification of best examples and the implementation of appropriate programmes and measures, which will lead to important benefits for the society and the economy through the reduction of road fatalities and injuries. Best performing countries and the related programmes and measures adopted may concern several safety improvements at the processes of the road, the vehicle and the insurance industries. ConclusionsLessons from the analysis of the past road safety patterns of developed countries provide some insight into the underlying process that relates motorization levels with personal risk and can prove to be beneficial for predicting the road safety evolution of developing countries that may have not yet reached the same breakpoints. Furthermore, the presented framework may serve as a basis to build more elaborate models, including more reliable exposure indicators (such as vehicle-km driven). 相似文献
2.
IntroductionInformation from hospital trauma registries is increasingly being used to support injury surveillance efforts. This research examines the potential of using trauma registry data for road traffic injury surveillance for different types of road users in terms of both the information collected and how representative trauma data are compared to two population-based road traffic injury data collections. MethodsThe three data collections were assessed against recommended variables to be collected for injury surveillance purposes and the representativeness of the distribution of road traffic-related injury data from the trauma registry was compared to hospital admission and road traffic authority data collections. ResultsData from the trauma registry was largely not representative of the distribution of age groups or activities compared to the two population-based collections, but was representative for gender for some road user groups to at least one population-based data collection. ConclusionsTrauma data could be used to supplement information from population-based data collections to inform road safety efforts. Impact on IndustryRoad safety policy makers should be aware of the potential and the limitations of using trauma registry data for road traffic injury surveillance. 相似文献
3.
The goal of this article is to evaluate the impact of the drastic Spanish Penal Code reform on the number of road deaths in Spain and the time that the effects might last. This is achieved by means of multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. In short, with this reform Spain might be considered to be closing the final gap that kept it apart from other developed countries as far as the road accident rate is concerned. We have found two different types of effects on Spanish road traffic fatalities. Initially, a month before the reform was passed there was a 24.7 percent fall in Spanish road deaths. After the Bill had been passed and for the following thirteen months, the reduction stayed at a constant sixteen percent. This reform has reduced Spanish road fatalities by 534 in all between November 2007 and December 2008 and the effects will foreseeably continue during 2009. 相似文献
5.
Recent studies have shown that the setting of road safety targets is associated with a substantial reduction in road fatalities in the short-term. Although such targets may not themselves be responsible for the reduction in fatalities, they serve as a useful measure of the intention and commitment of road authorities to formulate timely road safety measures that lead to the achievement of the target. A quantified target is regarded as one of the key components of a road safety strategy. However, few studies have examined the degree of commitment and attention of road authorities to such targets in the long-term. In this study, we revisit the effectiveness of the quantified road safety targets set by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, but with a different method, time scale, and group of comparison countries. We not only evaluate the associations between quantified targets and road fatality levels, but also measure the changes in the time-series trends in road fatalities over the long-term. The results indicate that all seven treatment countries analyzed experienced desirable changes in the time-series trend in road fatalities during the period under study, which implies an increase in road safety improvement over time. 相似文献
6.
PurposeYoung novice drivers experience significantly greater risk of being injured or killed in car crashes than older more experienced drivers. This research utilised a qualitative approach guided by the framework of Akers’ social learning theory. It explored young novice drivers’ perspectives on risky driving including rewards and punishments expected from and administered by parents, friends, and police, imitation of parents’ and friends’ driving, and advantages and disadvantages of risky driving. MethodsTwenty-one young drivers (12 females, 9 males) aged 16–25 years ( M = 17.71 years, SD = 2.15) with a Learner ( n = 11) or Provisional ( n = 10) driver licence participated in individual or small group interviews. Findings and conclusionsContent analysis supported four themes: (1) rewards and (2) punishments for risky driving, and the influence of (3) parents and (4) friends. The young novice drivers differed in their vulnerability to the negative influences of friends and parents, with some novices advising they were able to resist risky normative influences whilst others felt they could not. The authority of the police as enforcers of road rules was either accepted and respected or seen as being used to persecute young novices. These findings suggest that road safety interventions should consider the normative influence of parents and friends on the risky and safe behaviour of young novices. Police were also seen as influential upon behaviour. Future research should explore the complicated relationship between parents, friends, the police, young novices, and their risky driving behaviour. 相似文献
7.
Despite the extent to which the proximal causes of road traffic injury are known, road trauma remains a substantial and growing component of the global health burden. Application of contemporary sociotechnical systems theory to the problem of traffic injury suggests that the lack of progress globally may be a consequence of “drift into failure”. This article considers the new systems perspective on safety, explores the utility of this approach for road safety efforts, and specifically examines the ‘drift into failure’ hypothesis. It is argued that road transport systems do currently display characteristics of complex systems in drift and that greater understanding of complexity theory-based models will support improved road safety efforts. However, the extent to which such models can support road safety practitioners appears to be limited by the lack of practical tools for translating theory to practice. The article concludes by drawing attention to similarities between complex systems theory and the contexts in which the discipline of Human Factors has been developed, and suggests that Human Factors methodologies could be usefully used to facilitate further research in this field. 相似文献
8.
Transformational leadership is associated with a range of positive outcomes. Yet, according to substitutes for leadership theory, there may be circumstances under which it is difficult, if not impossible, for leaders to inspire and challenge their employees. Therefore, we hypothesize that transformational leadership behaviors as well as employee self‐leadership strategies contribute to employee work engagement and job performance. Furthermore, we hypothesize that transformational leadership behaviors are more effective when employees have a high need for leadership, whereas self‐leadership strategies are more effective when employees have a low need for leadership. A sample of 57 unique leader–employee dyads filled out a quantitative diary survey at the end of each week, for a period of five weeks. The results of multilevel structural equation modeling showed that employees were more engaged in their work and received higher performance ratings from their leader when leaders used more transformational leadership behaviors, and when employees used more self‐leadership strategies. Furthermore, we showed that transformational leadership behaviors were more effective when employees had a high (vs. low) need for leadership and that the opposite was true for employee self‐leadership. These findings contribute to our understanding of the role of employees in the transformational leadership process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Looking back, significant progress in process safety and the knowledge to achieve a safe level has been made. Professor Kletz with his wise and concise maxims has shown us in many respects the way to go, yet more direction is needed for transfer of this knowledge to new generations. After a brief problem analysis, a sketch is given of various developments in the field of process safety, such as our knowledge on hazardous properties, hazard and risk analysis tools, human aspects, trends and developments in industry, and future perspectives. Subsequently, an analysis is made of the knowledge infrastructure required to maintain and to improve a knowledge base. In particular, scenario identification and modeling is mentioned. To that end the ‘lessons learned’ in the past should be better used. This has proven not to be easy. A way to go is indicated that in the longer term may reap success. However, in the present climate, funds for research are scarce and that for safety research are scant. Research is not only to develop new knowledge but is also of crucial importance to maintain quality academic education and the formation of ‘teacher of teachers’. A recent initiative is reported to bring this problem to the attention of policy makers worldwide. 相似文献
10.
IntroductionRecent increases in road crashes have reversed New Zealand’s formerly declining crash rates to produce annual fatal and serious injury counts that are 49% higher than the lowest rates achieved in 2013. Method: We model twenty-one factors in fatal and serious injury crashes, four years before and after 2013 using logistic regression. Three major factors are significantly different in the period after 2013, when crash rates increased: (1) alcohol as a cause, (2) learner licence holders, and (3) a regional effect for Auckland. Newly defined speed zones are a more common setting for crashes in the period of upturn but there is no coinciding elevated likelihood of ‘speed as a causal factor’. Three factors related to road safety were less common: aged under 25-years old, fatigue, and not wearing a seatbelt. Results: Results are compared to rates of prosecutions for alcohol-related driving offences over this period. It is possible that New Zealand’s successful road safety initiatives of the past have been undermined by reduced levels of enforcement and an unexpected outcome from the graduated driving licence system. 相似文献
11.
Service has received increasing attention in the management literature, yet sustainability of service is often overlooked. In this Incubator we examine the potential for client involvement through shared and self‐leadership to foster empathy enhanced service and reduced costs, both of which may support a more sustainable service delivery process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Fixed‐pie bias, defined as the erroneous belief that the other negotiation party's interest is directly opposite to one's own, has been a consistent hurdle that negotiators must overcome in their efforts to achieve optimal negotiation outcomes. In this study, we explore the underlying cognitive mechanism and the social antecedents of fixed‐pie bias reduction in negotiation. Using data from a negotiation simulation with 256 participants, we found that mental‐model adjustments made by negotiators could effectively decrease fixed‐pie bias. More interestingly, we also found that negotiators were less likely to reduce fixed‐pie bias when negotiating with an in‐group member than with an out‐group member but only under a high accountability condition. Finally, we found that mental‐model adjustment mediated the effects of the aforementioned social antecedents (in‐groupness and accountability) on reduced fixed‐pie bias. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
PROBLEM: To assess effects of the 1999 Maryland graduated driver licensing (GDL) law on both 16-year-old drivers and other road users. METHOD: Calculation and comparison of crash involvement rates and non-fatal injury rates pre-GDL (1996-1998) and post-GDL (2001-2003) by type of road user, per population, and per licensed driver, with adjustment for trends among 30-59-year-old drivers. RESULTS: Post-GDL, prevalence of licensure decreased 24% among 16-year-olds, and rates of 16-year-old drivers involved in crashes significantly decreased per 16-year-old population (corrected rate ratio (RRc) 0.82; 95% CI (0.71, 0.96)). A significant decrease also was observed for non-fatal injuries per 16-year-old population among 16-year-old drivers involved in crashes (RRc 0.63; 95% CI (0.41, 0.98)). Similarly, decreases, albeit not statistically significant, were observed among their passengers and other vehicle occupants. Per 16-year-old licensed driver, a slight non-significant increase was observed in crash involvement rates; non-fatal injury rates per 16-year-old licensed driver suggest decreased risk (non-significant) among 16-year-old drivers, their passengers, and other vehicle occupants. SUMMARY: Maryland's GDL delayed licensure and reduced crashes and non-fatal injuries among 16-year-old drivers per population. Trends in injuries among other road users involved in crashes with 16-year-old drivers were suggestive of a benefit from GDL, although observed decreases were not significant. Per licensed driver, findings were not significant, but suggested little change in crash involvement and decreased non-fatal injuries. Because one-third fewer 16-year-olds were licensed post-GDL, these results may suggest a selection effect in licensure. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Because Maryland had nighttime restrictions for new drivers before 1999, this study suggests other components of GDL are beneficial for drivers and possibly for other road users. States with weak GDL laws should strongly consider revising them. 相似文献
16.
One of the scenarios of concern in assessing the safety issues related to transportation of LNG in a marine environment (ship or underwater pipeline) is the release of LNG underwater. This scenario has not been given the same level of scientific attention in the literature compared to surface releases and assessment of consequences therefrom. This paper addresses questions like, (1) does an LNG spill underwater form a pool on the water surface and subsequently evaporate like an LNG spill “on the surface” producing cold, heavier than air vapors?, and (2) what is the range of expected temperatures of the vapor, generated by LNG release due to heat transfer within the water column, when it emanates from the water surface?Very limited data from two field tests of LNG underwater release are reviewed. Also presented are the results from tests conducted in other related industries (metal casting, nuclear fission and fusion, chemical processing, and alternative fuel vehicles) where a hot (or cold) liquid is injected into a bulk cold (or hot) liquid at different depths.A mathematical model is described which calculates the temperature of vapor emanating at the water surface, and the liquid fraction of released LNG that surfaces, if any, to form a pool on the water surface. The model includes such variables as the LNG release rate, diameter of the jet at release, depth of release and water body temperature. Results obtained from the model for postulated release conditions are presented. Comparison of predicted results with available LNG underwater release test data is also provided. 相似文献
17.
Drawing on the work–home resources model and conservation of resources theory, in this study, we explore how flexibility idiosyncratic deals (i‐deals) relate to employees' work performance through their family performance. In line with the work–home resources model, we introduce 2 contextual conditions to explain when our proposed associations may unfold. One is a facilitator: perceived organizational support; and the other is a stressor: perceived hindering work demands. The results of a matched sample of employees and their supervisors working in 2 companies in El Salvador support our hypotheses. Our findings show that the benefits of flexibility i‐deals to the work domain (i.e., work performance) extend only through the family domain (i.e., family performance). Our findings also emphasize that flexibility i‐deals do not unfold in a dyadic vacuum: For employees who perceive organizational support to be higher, the association between flexibility i‐deals and family performance is stronger, whereas for employees who perceive hindering work demands to be lower, the association between family performance and employee work performance is also stronger. We contribute to i‐deals research by (a) exploring a relevant mechanism through which flexibility i‐deals influence work performance, (b) integrating the role of social context to emphasize the social aspects of i‐deals, and (c) enriching the i‐deals literature by introducing a resource perspective. 相似文献
19.
Among the factors influencing dust explosion, the particle size distribution (PSD) is both one of the most important and complex to consider. For instance, it is commonly accepted that the explosion sensitivity increases when the particle size decreases. Such an assertion may be questionable for nano-objects which easily agglomerate. However, agglomerates can be broken during the dispersion process. Correlating the explosion parameters to the actual PSD of a dust cloud at the moment of the ignition becomes then essential. The effects of the moisture content and sieving were investigated on a nanocellulose powder and the impact of a mechanical agglomeration was evaluated using a silicon coated by carbon powder. Each sample was characterized before and after dispersion using in situ laser particle size measurement and a fast mobility particle sizer, and explosion and minimum ignition energy tests were conducted respectively in a 20 L sphere and in a modified Hartmann tube. It was observed that drying and/or sieving the nanocellulose mainly led to variations in terms of ignition sensitivity but only slightly modified the explosion severity. In contrast, the mechanical agglomeration of the silicon coated by carbon led to a great decrease in terms of ignition sensitivity, with a minimum ignition energy varying from 5 mJ for the raw powder to more than 1J for the agglomerated samples. The maximum rate of pressure rise also decreased due to modifications in the reaction kinetics, inducing a transition from St2 class to St1 class when agglomerating the dust. 相似文献
20.
Objective: Motorcycle riders are involved in significantly more crashes per kilometer driven than passenger car drivers. Nonetheless, the development and implementation of motorcycle safety systems lags far behind that of passenger cars. This research addresses the identification of the most effective motorcycle safety solutions in the context of different countries. Methods: A knowledge-based system of motorcycle safety (KBMS) was developed to assess the potential for various safety solutions to mitigate or avoid motorcycle crashes. First, a set of 26 common crash scenarios was identified from the analysis of multiple crash databases. Second, the relative effectiveness of 10 safety solutions was assessed for the 26 crash scenarios by a panel of experts. Third, relevant information about crashes was used to weigh the importance of each crash scenario in the region studied. The KBMS method was applied with an Italian database, with a total of more than 1 million motorcycle crashes in the period 2000–2012. Results: When applied to the Italian context, the KBMS suggested that automatic systems designed to compensate for riders' or drivers' errors of commission or omission are the potentially most effective safety solution. The KBMS method showed an effective way to compare the potential of various safety solutions, through a scored list with the expected effectiveness of each safety solution for the region to which the crash data belong. A comparison of our results with a previous study that attempted a systematic prioritization of safety systems for motorcycles (PISa project) showed an encouraging agreement. Conclusions: Current results revealed that automatic systems have the greatest potential to improve motorcycle safety. Accumulating and encoding expertise in crash analysis from a range of disciplines into a scalable and reusable analytical tool, as proposed with the use of KBMS, has the potential to guide research and development of effective safety systems. As the expert assessment of the crash scenarios is decoupled from the regional crash database, the expert assessment may be reutilized, thereby allowing rapid reanalysis when new crash data become available. In addition, the KBMS methodology has potential application to injury forecasting, driver/rider training strategies, and redesign of existing road infrastructure. 相似文献
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