Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective

By combining the concepts of environmental stress, state susceptibility and environmental crisis, “Security Diagram” (SD) provides a quantitative approach to assessing environmental change and human security. The SD is a tool that clearly presents in a diagram the security situation of a population or region affected by a particular environmental crisis. Its underlying concept emphasises that the higher the level of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, the higher the probability of the occurrence of crisis. Focusing on drought, this study analyses the susceptibility of case study regions in India, Portugal, and Russia from a socio-economic perspective. A conceptual framework of socio-economic susceptibility is developed based on the economic development theories of modernisation and dependency. Fuzzy set theory is used to generate susceptibility indices from a range of national and sub-national indicators, including financial resources, agricultural dependency and infrastructure development (for economic susceptibility), and health condition, educational attainment and gender inequality (for social susceptibility). Results indicate that socio-economic susceptibility over the period 1980–1995 was highest in India, followed by Russia and (since 1989) lowest in Portugal. Globalisation is likely to contribute to changes in the level of socio-economic susceptibility over time. Moreover, specific social and economic structures unique in each country (e.g., the role of women in society in India, the socialist legacy in Russia) may explain differences in susceptibility between the case study regions.

The challenge of validating vulnerability estimates: the option of media content analysis for identifying drought-related crises

For an integrated assessment of the vulnerability of societies to drought it is necessary to set the benchmark at a level where the impacts of droughts lead to a state of affairs that departs from normal conditions, i.e. a crisis event. This article aims to improve the understanding of drought-related crisis events on the basis of a twofold media content analysis. This approach enables us to test when increased vulnerability in fact leads to a crisis situation and offers an improved understanding of the intensity and the extent of crisis events. To this end, we first outline our perspective on crisis and give an overview on existing approaches to identify crisis events. We then outline our two-step approach of media content analysis aimed at developing a crisis data set for the case study regions Andhra Pradesh (India), Southern Portugal and the Volga region (Russia). Using the Factiva news database and information by regional newspapers, a crisis data set is generated enabling us to define the occurrence and extent of drought-related crisis events in the case study regions. Moreover, based on attributes of drought impacts reported by news sources, we categorize the extensiveness of a specific drought. As a key result, our findings suggest that Southern Portugal, the case study region which is expected to be less susceptible to drought events than the other case study regions, faced the most extended crisis events.     

A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought

In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance of the differences.

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Exposure,sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change: empirical research in China

The present research established a preliminary indicator assessment system satisfying Chinese characters for exposure, sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change. The 31 province-level administrative regions in mainland China were considered in our research. We developed three dimensions of indices related to climate change, including primary, secondary, and tertiary indicators. We chose all variables and indicators based on a literature review and used principal component analysis and the varimax method to develop a weighted assessment index system. Districts in central China scored higher on the overall exposure index than other sample districts, western China generally exhibited higher sensitivity, and eastern China exhibited comparatively higher social adaptive capacity than the other regions. This study also provides perspective for adaptation policies that all regions in China could adopt to determine development direction decision-making based on their specific conditions and diversified comparative advantages to enhance adaptive capacity in response to climate change.     

Vulnerability and adaptation of European farmers: a multi-level analysis of yield and income responses to climate variability

Climate change will affect crop yields and consequently farmers’ income. The underlying relationships are not well understood, particularly the importance of crop management and related factors at the farm and regional level. We analyze the impacts of trends and variability in climatic conditions from 1990 to 2003 on trends and variability in yields of five crops and farmers’ income at farm type and regional level in Europe considering farm characteristics and other factors. While Mediterranean regions are often characterized as most vulnerable to climate change, our data suggest effective adaptation to variable and changing conditions in these regions largely attributable to the characteristic farm types in these regions. We conclude that for projections of climate change impacts on agriculture, farm characteristics influencing management and adaptation should be considered, as they largely influence the potential impacts.     

Commentary: the challenge of quantifying susceptibility to drought-related crisis

This paper is a response to a recent special issue of Regional Environmental Change, “Quantifying vulnerability to drought from different disciplinary perspectives” (vol. 8, number 4, 2008). In this paper, we examine some of the challenges facing efforts to understand vulnerability to drought through quantification as they are manifest in some of the articles in this special issue.

Governance, institutions and the environment-income relationship: a cross-country study

This paper examines the environment-income relationship in the context of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), and explores the possible role that factors like governance, political institutions, socioeconomic conditions, and education play in influencing this relationship. The results suggest that the EKC exists for carbon dioxide emissions for cross-country data over the period 1984–2002. However, there is nothing automatic about this relationship; policies designed to protect the environment may be responsible for this phenomenon. Two other significant findings are: one, countries with better quality of governance, stronger political institutions, better socioeconomic conditions and greater investment in education have lower emissions; and two, only around 15% of the countries in the dataset have reached income levels high enough to be associated with an unambiguous decline in emissions. The implications of these results are discussed within the context of the international environmental policy arena and the Kyoto Protocol. One of the main objectives of this paper is to bridge the gap between studies conducted on the EKC and developments in the international environmental policy arena. As a final note this paper emphasizes that one needs to connect the body of knowledge on the EKC hypothesis to the international environmental policy arena, despite the apparent difficulty of doing so. One hopes that future studies will further build on this line of thought.

Vulnerability of Inuit food systems to food insecurity as a consequence of climate change: a case study from Igloolik, Nunavut

This paper develops a conceptual model to examine the vulnerability of Inuit food systems to food insecurity as a consequence of climate change. The model illustrates that food system vulnerability is determined by the exposure and sensitivity of the food system to climate-related risks and its adaptive capacity to deal with those risks. The model is empirically applied using a case study from Igloolik, Nunavut. Specifically, the paper focuses on how extreme climate-related conditions in 2006 interacted with the food system to affect food security, using 2006 as a lens to identify and characterize some of the processes and conditions shaping vulnerability, and establishing a baseline for identifying and characterizing processes that are likely to shape future vulnerability. There is a high level of adaptive capacity among Igloolik Inuit, with food sharing mechanisms, hunting flexibility, and store-food access moderating the impact of climatic-risks on food security. However, high fuel and commodity prices, the increasing economic burden of adapting to back-to-back years with unfavorable climatic conditions, underlying community vulnerabilities, and the nature to the climate extremes in 2006, overwhelmed the adaptive capacity of many community members. Those dependent on traditional foods and having limited access to financial resources were particularly vulnerable.     

Developing sustainable practices to adapt to the impacts of climate change: a case study of agricultural systems in eastern England (UK)

The weight of scientific evidence suggests that human activities are noticeably influencing the world's climate. However, the effects of global climate change will be unevenly spread, due to local variations in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Using downscaled projections of future UK climates over the next 50 years, this paper investigates the impacts of, and possible responses to, climate change in one small area in eastern England, selected as a test-bed for sustainable agriculture. It shows that local agricultural systems are vulnerable to changes in the climate. At present, however, these considerations have a limited effect on agricultural operations, which are mainly driven by short-term events and 'non-climate' policies, such as agricultural price support. The capacity of agricultural systems to adapt successfully to climate change will be determined by the ability of producers to integrate climate change into their planning strategies with a view to ultimately ensuring sustainable agricultural practices in the long term. Electronic Publication     

The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany,the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.

Factor input structure,environmental policies,and the export quality upgrade: a perspective of heterogeneity

In the analysis of how environmental regulation affects the comparative advantage of trade, existing literature ignores industry’s inherent heterogeneity, which draws remarkably different conclusions. In view of this, the paper analyzed the mechanism of environmental regulation on the export quality of different industries from the perspective of factor input structure heterogeneity. Based on the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry, the paper used the system generalized method of moments method to examine the heterogeneity influence of environmental regulation on manufacturing export quality. The study found that, first, environmental regulation affected the export quality upgrade of the manufacturing sector through offset effect and compensation effect, and the direction of the impact would mainly depend on the industry’s factor input structure. Second, for industries with larger fixed-asset investment (FAI) ratio in the factor input structure, the current environmental regulation policy was not conducive to the export quality upgrading of the industries. However, there was a significant U-shaped dynamic relationship between them. As environmental regulations became stricter, when regulatory stringency went beyond the inflection point, the policy would promote the upgrading of export quality. But for industries with smaller proportion of FAI, environmental regulation exerted a favorable impact on the export quality upgrade, following a J-shaped marginal growth curve. Third, for industries with different factor input structure, their export quality had been effectively upgraded as expected by factors like human capital investment, independent R&D, technology introduction, and foreign direct investment; but raising per capita capital stock and expanding enterprise size did not produce significant direct impact on export quality upgrade. These conclusions remained robust after using different measurement methods and replacing with other variables. Therefore, this paper suggests that governments should take industry heterogeneity into consideration and formulate differentiated hierarchical environmental policies. Besides, they should strengthen the enforcement of the current environmental regulation policies. By doing so, enterprises are forced to improve their technology and product quality so that they can better cope with rising compliance costs, eliminate backward industries, and resolve excess capacity. In this way, the economic structure would be transformed and upgraded from the supply side.     

Conceptual Framework of Tourism Carrying Capacity for a Tourism City： Experiences from National Parks in the United States

There is no universally-accepted definition of tourism carrying capacity(TCC).Numerical TCC focuses on use level and is considered as"a magic number"of the saturation point for tourism.There are several reasons why numerical tourism capacity is inadequate.Alternatively,tourism capacity can be defined in terms of limits of acceptable change,which shifts the focus from"how much use is too much"to"how much change is acceptable".This article proposes an improved conceptual framework for evaluating carrying capacity for the tourism city based on approaches used in US national parks,which consider the impact of human use on a city's economic,environmental/resource,and socio-cultural conditions.Based on the basic data of indicator values and relevant standards,the framework monitors the current indicators and predicts future indicator values; it can also be used to assess and predict TCC.     

Long-term dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in Austria: a comprehensive assessment of the time period from 1830 to 2000

This article presents a comprehensive data set on Austria’s terrestrial carbon stocks from the beginnings of industrialization in the year 1830 to the present. It is based on extensive historical and recent land use and forestry data derived from primary sources (cadastral surveys) for the early nineteenth century, official statistics available for later parts of the nineteenth century as well as the twentieth century, and forest inventory data covering the second half of the twentieth century. Total carbon stocks—i.e. aboveground and belowground standing crop and soil organic carbon—are calculated for the entire period and compared to those of potential vegetation. Results suggest that carbon stocks were roughly constant from 1830 to 1880 and have grown considerably from 1880 to 2000, implying that Austria’s vegetation has acted as a carbon sink since the late nineteenth century. Carbon stocks increased by 20% from approximately 1.0 GtC in 1830 and 1880 to approximately 1.2 GtC in the year 2000, a value still much lower than the amount of carbon terrestrial ecosystems are expected to contain in the absence of land use: According to calculations presented in this article, potential vegetation would contain some 2.0 GtC or 162% of the present terrestrial carbon stock, suggesting that the recent carbon sink results from a recovery of biota from intensive use in the past. These findings are in line with the forest transition hypothesis which claims that forest areas are growing in industrialized countries. Growth in forest area and rising carbon stocks per unit area of forests both contribute to the carbon sink. We discuss the hypothesis that the carbon sink is mainly caused by the shift from area-dependent energy sources (biomass) in agrarian societies to the largely area-independent energy system of industrial societies based above all on fossil fuels.