A weed risk assessment model for use as a biosecurity tool evaluating plant introductions

New plant taxa from around the world continue to be imported into Australia and New Zealand. Many of these taxa have the potential to become agricultural or environmental weeds and this risk needs to be assessed before allowing their entry. A weed risk assessment system is described that uses information on a taxon's current weed status in other parts of the world, climate and environmental preferences, and biological attributes. The system is designed to be operated by quarantine personnel via a user-friendly computer interface.The model was tested against experts' scores for weediness for 370 taxa present in Australia, representing both weeds and useful taxa from agriculture, the environment, and other sectors. The model was judged on its ability to correctly ‘reject’ weeds, ‘accept’ non-weeds, and generate a low proportion of taxa which could not be decisively categorised, termed ‘evaluate’. More than 70% of the taxa were rejected or accepted. All taxa classified as serious weeds, and most minor weeds, were rejected or required further evaluation, while only 7% of non-weeds were rejected. The model was modified to New Zealand conditions and evaluated against the opinions of several groups of experts and against economic measures. The model produced a weediness score very similar to the mean of the experts scores. The latter were highly variable: agriculturalists tended to accept known weeds, conservationists tended to reject most adventive taxa, and only botanists produced scores similar to the model. The model scores also tended to be independent of economic value as measured in this study. The model could be adapted for use as a screening tool in any region of the world.     

Practitioner Insights into Weed Management on California’s Rangelands and Natural Areas

Working rangelands and natural areas span diverse ecosystems and face both ecological and economic threats from weed invasion. Restoration practitioners and land managers hold a voluminous cache of place-based weed management experience and knowledge that has largely been untapped by the research community. We surveyed 260 California rangeland managers and restoration practitioners to investigate invasive and weedy species of concern, land management goals, perceived effectiveness of existing practices (i.e., prescribed fire, grazing, herbicide use, and seeding), and barriers to practice implementation. Respondents identified 196 problematic plants, with yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis L.) and medusahead (Elymus caput-medusae L.) most commonly listed. Reported adoption and effectiveness of weed management practices varied regionally, but the most highly rated practice in general was herbicide use; however, respondents identified considerable challenges including nontarget effects, cost, and public perception. Livestock forage production was the most commonly reported management goals (64% of respondents), and 25% of respondents were interested in additional information on using grazing to manage invasive and weedy species; however, 19% of respondents who had used grazing for weed management did not perceive it to be an effective tool. Across management practices, we also found common barriers to implementation, including operational barriers (e.g., permitting, water availability), potential adverse impacts, actual effectiveness, and public perception. Land manager and practitioner identified commonalities of primary weeds, management goals, perceived practice effectiveness, and implementation barriers across diverse bioregions highlight major needs that could be immediately addressed through management–science partnerships across the state’s expansive rangelands and natural areas.     

A two-agent dynamic model with an invasive weed diffusion externality: an application to Yellow Starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis L.) in New Mexico

This paper presents a bioeconomic model for two agents, a cattle rancher and a non-rancher, with interdependencies between their individual effort of invasive weed management and profitability. Dynamic simulations allow us to find numerically the optimal effort of weed control over a 5-year time horizon under a variety of beginning infestation levels. In a base-case scenario without governmental cost-share of control costs, we find that efforts to control the weed are not profitable. The base-case scenarios also indicate that grazing contributes to giving the invasive weed a competitive edge. A second series of simulations include incentive payments for weed control which are set at the minimum level required to have a net positive impact on the rancher's profitability. From these simulations, we find that the level of infestation impacts the size of the incentive necessary to get the agent to control the weeds and that the incentive payments impact the level of effort of the rancher. In addition, results reveal that the higher incentive payments for lower levels of weed infestations reduce the total cumulative incentive payments over time. Efficient policies directed towards management of invasive weeds may need to be adjusted for each individual case.     

Phytoextraction and uptake patterns of weathered polychlorinated biphenyl-contaminated soils using three perennial weed species

Three promising phytoextracting perennial weed species [ L. (ox-eye daisy), L. (curly dock), and L. (Canada goldenrod)] were planted in monoculture plots at two polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-contaminated sites in southern Ontario and followed over 2 yr to investigate the effects of plant age, contaminant characteristics, and species-specific properties on PCB uptake and accumulation patterns in plant tissues. Results from this study indicate that, for each of these weed species, shoot contaminant concentrations and total biomass are dependent on plant age and life cycle (vegetative and reproductive stages), which affects the total amount of PCBs phytoextracted on a per-plant basis. Even at suboptimal planting densities of 3 to 5 plants m, all three weed species extracted a greater quantity of PCBs per unit area (4800-10,000 μg m) than the known PCB-accumulator L. ssp (cv Howden pumpkins) (1500-2100 μg m) at one of the two sites. Calculated PCB extractions based on theoretical optimal planting densities were significantly higher at both sites and illustrate the potential of these weeds for site remediation. This study also demonstrates that plants may accumulate PCBs along the stem length in a similar manner as plants.     

Predicting Sustained Fire Spread in Tasmanian Native Grasslands

Fire is widely used in conservation management of native grasslands. Burning is often carried out under conditions that are marginal for sustained fire spread, and therefore it would be useful to be able to predict fire sustainability. There is currently no model allowing such prediction in temperate grasslands. This study aims to identify the environmental variables that determine whether fires will sustain in native grasslands in Tasmania, Australia, and develop a model for predicting fire sustainability in this vegetation. Fuel characteristics and weather conditions were recorded for 111 test fires. Logistic regression modeling identified dead fuel moisture content, fuel load, and percentage dead fuel as predictors of fire sustainability. Classification tree modeling identified dead fuel moisture and fuel load threshold values for sustaining fires. There was also evidence indicating a percentage dead fuel threshold. The logistic regression model and a model combining the results of the classification tree and the percentage dead fuel threshold accurately predicted the outcomes of a small set of experimental fires. These models are likely to have utility in predicting fire sustainability in Tasmanian grasslands and are also likely to be applicable to similar grasslands elsewhere.     

The current status and environmental impacts of glyphosate-resistant crops: a review

Glyphosate [N-(phosphonomethyl) glycine]-resistant crops (GRCs), canola (Brassica napus L.), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), maize (Zea mays L.), and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] have been commercialized and grown extensively in the Western Hemisphere and, to a lesser extent, elsewhere. Glyphosate-resistant cotton and soybean have become dominant in those countries where their planting is permitted. Effects of glyphosate on contamination of soil, water, and air are minimal, compared to some of the herbicides that they replace. No risks have been found with food or feed safety or nutritional value in products from currently available GRCs. Glyphosate-resistant crops have promoted the adoption of reduced- or no-tillage agriculture in the USA and Argentina, providing a substantial environmental benefit. Weed species in GRC fields have shifted to those that can more successfully withstand glyphosate and to those that avoid the time of its application. Three weed species have evolved resistance to glyphosate in GRCs. Glyphosate-resistant crops have greater potential to become problems as volunteer crops than do conventional crops. Glyphosate resistance transgenes have been found in fields of canola that are supposed to be non-transgenic. Under some circumstances, the largest risk of GRCs may be transgene flow (introgression) from GRCs to related species that might become problems in natural ecosystems. Glyphosate resistance transgenes themselves are highly unlikely to be a risk in wild plant populations, but when linked to transgenes that may impart fitness benefits outside of agriculture (e.g., insect resistance), natural ecosystems could be affected. The development and use of failsafe introgression barriers in crops with such linked genes is needed.     

Resistant weeds were controlled by the combined use of herbicides and bioherbicides

The intensive and abundant use of synthetic herbicides has been questioned in recent decades due to the strong dependence and also the resistance effects that are identified in weeds. Several grain crops suffer from the weed control system because many of the weeds are already resistant to the main herbicides that are used. In recent years, there has been a large gap in the market without the addition of new synthetic herbicides with mechanisms of action that differ from those already existing. The objective of this short piece is to address and overcome this challenge and bring an innovative and alternative solution that proposes a synergistic action system between bioherbicides produced by the fungus Trichoderma koningiopsis and synthetic herbicides (2,4‐dichlorophenoxyacetic acid, glyphosate, and ammonium glufosinate). The plants included in this study were Bidens pilosa (amor seco, or in the United States, beggar ticks or Spanish needle), Euphorbia heterophylla (adeus‐brasil), and Conyza bonariensis (margaridinha‐do‐campo, or, in the United States, hairy fleabane or asthmaweed). It was verified that, in the application of the biocomposites in the presence of chemical herbicides, potentiation of the phytotoxic action (100%) occurred under the target plants, emphasizing phytotoxicity to the weed, C. bonariensis, which is currently resistant to available herbicides. The bioherbicides studied have promising characteristics to be explored in the biocontrol of weeds.     

WHIPPET: A novel tool for prioritizing invasive plant populations for regional eradication

Large geographic areas can have numerous incipient invasive plant populations that necessitate eradication. However, resources are often deficient to address every infestation. Within the United States, weed lists (either state-level or smaller unit) generally guide the prioritization of eradication of each listed species uniformly across the focus region. This strategy has several limitations that can compromise overall effectiveness, which include spending limited resources on 1) low impact populations, 2) difficult to access populations, or 3) missing high impact populations of low priority species. Therefore, we developed a novel science-based, transparent, analytical ranking tool to prioritize weed populations, instead of species, for eradication and tested it on a group of noxious weeds in California. For outreach purposes, we named the tool WHIPPET (Weed Heuristics: Invasive Population Prioritization for Eradication Tool). Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process that included expert opinion, we developed three major criteria, four sub-criteria, and four sub-sub-criteria, taking into account both species and population characteristics. Subject matter experts weighted and scored these criteria to assess the relative impact, potential spread, and feasibility of eradication (major criteria) for 100 total populations of 19 species. Species-wide population scores indicated that conspecific populations do not necessarily group together in the final ranked output. Thus, priority lists based solely on species-level characteristics are less effective compared to a blended prioritization based on both species attributes and individual population and site parameters. WHIPPET should facilitate a more efficacious decision-making process allocating limited resources to target invasive plant infestations with the greatest predicted impacts to the region under consideration.     

Modeling postfire conifer mortality for long-range planning

A model is presented for predicting mortality of conifers after wildfire. The model requires stand data inputs and is linked with a mathematical fire behavior model that calculates fireline intensity. Fraction of crown volume killed is calculated for each species in a stand based on mensurational data. Duration of lethal heat at the base of trees is calculated from fuel consumption and burning time values. Fraction of crown volume killed and the ratio of critical time for cambial kill to duration of lethal heat are independent variables in a function that calculates probability of mortality. The model produces reasonable estimates of stand mortality for fire and site characteristics found in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. It has a broad resolution appropriate for use in fire management planning and has potential applications for coniferous forests throughout the United States.     

Ecological risk assessment of TBT in Ise Bay

An ecological risk assessment of tributyltin (TBT) in Ise Bay was conducted using the margin of exposure (MOE) method. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect the survival, growth and reproduction of marine organisms. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Ise Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. Estimated MOEs for marine organisms for 1990 and 2008 were approximately 0.1-2.0 and over 100 respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse effects. The chemical fate model predicts a much longer persistence of TBT in sediments than in the water column. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the harmful effects of TBT on benthic organisms.     

Biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires in the Deccan Plateau, India

Forest fires constitute one of the most serious environmental problems in several forested regions of India. In the Indian sub-continent, relatively few studies have focused on the assessment of biophysical and anthropogenic controls of forest fires at a landscape scale and the spatial aspects of these relationships. In this study, we used fire count data sets from satellite remote sensing data covering 78 districts over four different states of the Deccan Plateau, India, for assessing the underlying causes of fires. Spatial data for explanatory variables of fires pertaining to topography, vegetation, climate, anthropogenic and accessibility factors have been gathered corresponding with fire presence/absence. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the probability of the presence of fires as a function of the explanatory variables. Results for fire area estimates suggested that, of the total fires covering 47,043km(2) that occurred during the year 2000 for the entire Indian region, 29.0% occurred in the Deccan Plateau, with Andhra Pradesh having 13.5%, Karnataka 14.7%, Kerala 0.1%, and Tamilnadu 1.15%. Results from the logistic regression suggest that the strongest influences on the fire occurrences were the amount of forest area, biomass densities, rural population density (PD), average precipitation of the warmest quarter, elevation (ELE) and mean annual temperature (MAT). Among these variables, biomass density (BD) and average precipitation of the warmest quarter had the highest significance, followed by others. These results on the best predictors of forest fires can be used both as a strategic planning tool to address broad scale fire risk concerns, and also as a tactical guide to help forest managers to design fire mitigation measures at the district level.     

Simulating the impacts of fire: A computer program

Recurrent fire has played a dominant role in the ecology of southwestern ponderosa pine forests. To assess the benefits or losses of fire in these forests, a computer simulation model, called BURN, considers vegetation (mortality, regeneration, and production of herbaceous vegetation), wildlife (populations and habitats), and hydrology (streamflow and water quality). In the formulation of the model, graphical representations (time-trend response curves) of increases or losses (compared to an unburned control) after the occurrence of fire are converted to fixedterm annual ratios, and then annuities for the simulation components. Annuity values higher than 1.0 indicate benefits, while annuity values lower than 1.0 indicate losses. Studies in southwestern ponderosa pine forests utilized in the development of BURN are described briefly.     

Use of the guild concept in environmental impact assessment

The purpose of this paper was to clarify and expand several ideas concerning use of the guild concept in environmental impact assessment Background material on the concept and examples of its use are given. It is argued that for purposes of environmental assessment a resource-based guild approach is preferable to a taxonomic-based approach. Validity of the guild concept, problems in classifying species into guilds, implications of guild membership, and usefulness of guild analyses are discussed. I conclude that only with a thorough knowledge of both its limitations and benefits will it be possible to fully use the guild concept for understanding organizational processes in communities and ecosystems and for assessing environmental impacts.     

Uncertainty assessment of the model RICEWQ in northern Italy

Model predictions are often seriously affected by uncertainties arising from many sources. Ignoring the uncertainty associated with model predictions may result in misleading interpretations when the model is used by a decision-maker for risk assessment. In this paper, an analysis of uncertainty was performed to estimate the uncertainty of model predictions and to screen out crucial variables using a Monte Carlo stochastic approach and a number of statistical methods, including ANOVA and stepwise multiple regression. The model studied was RICEWQ (Version 1.6.1), which was used to forecast pesticide fate in paddy fields. The results demonstrated that the paddy runoff concentration predicted by RICEWQ was in agreement with field measurements and the model can be applied to simulate pesticide fate at field scale. Model uncertainty was acceptable, runoff predictions conformed to a log-normal distribution with a short right tail, and predictions were reliable at field scale due to the narrow spread of uncertainty distribution. The main contribution of input variables to model uncertainty resulted from spatial (sediment-water partition coefficient and mixing depth to allow direct partitioning to bed) and management (time and rate of application) parameters, and weather conditions. Therefore, these crucial parameters should be carefully parameterized or precisely determined in each site-specific paddy field before the application of the model, since small errors of these parameters may induce large uncertainty of model outputs.     

Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios

Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO₂ emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and concentration of juice.     

Human-caused wildfire risk rating for prevention planning in Spain

This paper identifies human factors associated with high forest fire risk in Spain and analyses the spatial distribution of fire occurrence in the country. The spatial units were 6,066 municipalities of the Spanish peninsular territory and Balearic Islands. The study covered a 13-year series of fire occurrence data. One hundred and eight variables were generated and input to a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) to model different factors related to fire ignition. After exploratory analysis, 29 were selected to build a predictive model of human fire ignition using logistic regression analysis. The binary model estimated the probability of high or low occurrence of forest fires, as defined by an ignition danger index that is currently used by the Spanish forest service (number of fires divided by forest area in each municipality). Thirteen explanatory variables were identified by the model. They were related to agricultural landscape fragmentation, agricultural abandonment and development processes. The prediction agreement found between the model binary outputs and the historical fire data was 85.3% for the model building dataset (60% of municipalities). A slightly lower predictive power (76.2%) was found for the validation data (the remaining 40%). The probabilistic output of the logistic was significantly related to the raw ignition index (Spearman correlation of 0.710) used by the Spanish Forest Service. Therefore, the model can be considered a good predictor of human-caused fire risk, aiding spatial decisions related to prevention planning in Spanish municipalities.     

Quantitative assessment of tidal wetlands using remote sensing

Effective management of tidal wetlands requires periodic data on the boundaries, extent, and condition of the wetlands. In many states, wetlands are defined wholly, or in combination with other criteria, by the presence of particular emergent halophytic plants. Many important characteristics of the wetlands ecosystem are related directly to the production of emergent plant material or may be inferred from knowledge of the distribution of emergent plant species. Remote-sensing techniques have been applied to mapping of the distribution of wetland vegetation but not to quantitative evaluation of the condition of that vegetation.Recent research in the tidal wetlands of Delaware and elsewhere has shown that spectral canopy reflectance properties can be quantitatively related to the emergent green biomass ofSpartina alterniflora (salt marsh cord grass) throughout the peak growing season (April through September, in Delaware). Periodic measurements of this parameter could be applied to calculations of net aerial primary productivity for large areas ofS. alterniflora marsh in which conventional harvest techniques may be prohibitively time consuming. The method is species specific and, therefore, requires accurate discrimination ofS. alterniflora from other vegetation types. Observed seasonal changes in species spectral signatures are shown to have potential for improving multispectral categorization of tidal wetland vegetation types.     

Science and Management of the Introduced Seagrass Zostera japonica in North America

Healthy seagrass is considered a prime indicator of estuarine ecosystem function. On the Pacific coast of North America, at least two congeners of Zostera occur: native Zostera marina, and introduced, Zostera japonica. Z. japonica is considered “invasive” and therefore, ecologically and economically harmful by some, while others consider it benign or perhaps beneficial. Z. japonica does not appear on the Federal or the Oregon invasive species or noxious weed lists. However, the State of California lists it as both an invasive and noxious weed; Washington State recently listed it as a noxious weed. We describe the management dynamics in North America with respect to these congener species and highlight the science and policies behind these decisions. In recent years, management strategies at the state level have ranged from historical protection of Z. japonica as a priority habitat in Washington to eradication in California. Oregon and British Columbia, Canada appear to have no specific policies with regard to Z. japonica. This fractured management approach contradicts efforts to conserve and protect seagrass in other regions of the US and around the world. Science must play a critical role in the assessment of Z. japonica ecology and the immediate and long-term effects of management actions. The information and recommendations provided here can serve as a basis for providing scientific data in order to develop better informed management decisions and aid in defining a uniform management strategy for Z. japonica.     

Display and interpretation of fire behavior probabilities for long-term planning

Fire management planning for wildlands traditionally uses fire behavior estimated on the basis of worst-case weather at a specific site, but more realistic estimates can be obtained by considering the entire distribution of possible sites and weather conditions. Probability distributions of four widely used fire behavior variables were derived for four test cases in the Northern Rockies and Northern Intermountain Zone. The variables were rate of spread, fireline intensity, fire perimeter length-to-width ratio, and scorch height. Results were depicted in simple line graphs, three-dimensional pin graphs, and tables; they ranged from the cumulative probability of one variable to joint probabilities of four variables. Increasing the number of variables depicted increased the amount and scope of information available. Examples of interpreting the graphs and tables show how these techniques can be used in long-term fire program planning, fire suppression, management of various resources affected by fire, and interdisciplinary resource planning.     

What Lies Beneath? An Evaluation of Rapid Assessment Tools for Management of Hull Fouling

Despite an increased understanding of marine invasions, non-indigenous species (NIS) continue to be redistributed at both global and regional scales. Since prevention is an important element of NIS programs, monitoring vectors responsible for NIS introductions and spread, such as hull fouling, has become a priority and methods should be selected carefully to balance accuracy, time, and cost. Two common fouling assessment tools for the marine recreational boating vector were evaluated for accuracy using a traditional underwater SCUBA survey in coastal British Columbia: a dockside level of fouling assessment and a behavioral questionnaire model. Results showed that although rapid, dockside assessments did not provide an accurate assessment of fouling present below the surface, at least not in this region. In contrast, a questionnaire-based model using four easily obtained variables (boat type, age of antifouling paint, storage type, and occurrence of long distance trips) reliably identified boats carrying macrofouling species, a proxy for risk of NIS transport. Once validated, this fouling model tool could be applied in border inspection or quarantine situations where decisions must be made quickly. Further development and refinement of rapid assessment tools would improve our ability to prevent new introductions and manage spread of existing invasive species.