The globalization of nitrogen deposition: consequences for terrestrial ecosystems

The sources and distribution of anthropogenic nitrogen (N), including N fertilization and N fixed during fossil-fuel combustion, are rapidly becoming globally distributed. Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to anthropogenic N inputs are likely to vary geographically. In the temperate zone, long-term N inputs can lead to increases in plant growth and also can result in over-enrichment with N, eventually leading to increased losses of N via solution leaching and trace-gas emissions, and in some cases, to changes in species composition and to ecosystem decline. However, not all ecosystems respond to N deposition similarly; their response depends on factors such as successional state, ecosystem type, N demand or retention capacity, land-use history, soils, topography, climate, and the rate, timing, and type of N deposition. We point to some of the conditions under which anthropogenic impacts can be significant, some of the factors that control variations in response, and some areas where uncertainty is large due to limited information.     

Estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions 1860–1993

This paper provides the first time series estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions from the mid-19th century to the present. Our purpose is to provide time series estimates of anthropogenic methane emissions for global climate models estimated or calibrated using historical time series data. Previous estimates of methane emissions include “top-down” (deconvolution) estimates of total emissions, estimates of global anthropogenic emissions for the 16th century, and various estimates of anthropogenic and natural emissions in the 1980s and 1990s. This study uses previously published point estimates for the 16th century and the 1980s and early 1990s and a variety of historical time series of proxy variables to estimate a time series of global anthropogenic methane emissions. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions have increased from about 80 million tonnes per annum in 1860 to about 380 million tonnes in 1990. The relative importance of various emission sources changes over time. The rate of increase now may be slowing. A comparison with the estimates generated by Khalil and Rasmussen suggests that natural sources of methane have declined over the period. There are, however, great uncertainties in these estimates which future research may be able to reduce.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of ammonia emissions from seabirds in the UK

Knowledge of the sources and distribution of ammonia (NH3) emissions underpins our understanding of the nitrogen budget. Research has focused on quantifying NH3 emissions from anthropogenic sources, whilst those from natural sources have received little attention internationally. Seabirds excrete large quantities of nitrogen, making seabird colonies a major natural source of NH3. Ammonia emissions from each UK seabird species were estimated and combined with population distribution data to model their spatial distribution. Total NH3 emissions from UK seabirds were estimated at 2.7 kt per year. Seabird emissions are concentrated in remote parts of the UK where anthropogenic emissions are small, so that seabirds often represent the main source of NH3 emissions in these areas. Seabird NH3 emissions were found to have increased by 34% since the 1970s. This corresponds to population changes which may be influenced by human activities, showing that even this natural source can be anthropogenically modified.     

Source attribution for mercury deposition in the contiguous United States: regional difference and seasonal variation

Quantifying the contribution of emission sources responsible for mercury deposition in specific receptor regions helps develop emission control strategies that alleviate the impact on ecosystem and human health. In light of the maximum available control technology (MACT) rules proposed by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the ongoing intergovernmental negotiation coordinated by United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) for mercury, the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ-Hg) was applied to estimate the source contribution in six subregions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The considered source categories include electric generating units (EGU), iron and steel industry (IRST), other industrial point sources excluding EGU and IRST (OIPM), the remaining anthropogenic sources (RA), natural processes (NAT), and out-of-boundary transport (BC). It is found that, on an annual basis, dry deposition accounts for two-thirds of total annual deposition in CONUS (474 Mg yr(-1)), mainly contributed by reactive gaseous mercury (about 60% of total deposition). The contribution from large point sources can be as high as 75% near the emission sources (< 100 km), indicating that emission reduction may result in direct deposition decrease near the source locations. Out-of-boundary transport contributes from 68% (Northeast) to 91% (West Central) of total deposition. Excluding the contribution from out-of boundary transport, EGU contributes to about 50% of deposition in the Northeast, Southeast, and East Central regions, whereas emissions from natural processes are more important in the Pacific and West Central regions (contributing up to 40% of deposition). This suggests that the implementation of the new EPA MACT standards will significantly benefit only these three regions. Emission speciation is a key factor for local deposition. The source contribution exhibits strong seasonal variation. Deposition is greater in warm seasons due to stronger Hg0 oxidation. However, the contribution from anthropogenic sources is smaller in warm seasons because of larger emissions from natural processes and stronger vertical mixing that facilitates transport.     

Mycorrhizal mediation of plant response to atmospheric change: Air quality concepts and research considerations

The term 'global climate change' encompasses many physical and chemical changes in the atmosphere that have been induced by anthropogenic pollutants. Increases in concentrations of CO2 and CH4 enhance the 'greenhouse effect' of the atmosphere and may contribute to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns at the earth's surface. Nitrogen oxides and SO2 are phytotoxic and also react with other pollutants to produce other phytotoxins in the troposphere such as O3 and acidic substances. However, release of chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere may cause depletion of stratospheric O3, increasing the transmittance of ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation to the earth's surface. Increased intensities of UV-B could affect plants and enhance photochemical reactions that generate some phytotoxic pollutants. The role of mycorrhizae in plant responses to such stresses has received little attention. Although plans for several research programs have acknowledged the importance of drought tolerance and soil fertility in plant responses to atmospheric stresses, mycorrhizae are rarely targeted to receive specific investigation. Most vascular land plants form mycorrhizae, so the role of mycorrhizae in mediating plant responses to atmospheric change may be an important consideration in predicting effects of atmospheric changes on plants in managed and natural ecosystems.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

A synthesis of progress and uncertainties in attributing the sources of mercury in deposition

A panel of international experts was convened in Madison, Wisconsin, in 2005, as part of the 8th International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant. Our charge was to address the state of science pertinent to source attribution, specifically our key question was: "For a given location, can we ascertain with confidence the relative contributions of local, regional, and global sources, and of natural versus anthropogenic emissions to mercury deposition?" The panel synthesized new research pertinent to this question published over the past decade, with emphasis on four major research topics: long-term anthropogenic change, current emission and deposition trends, chemical transformations and cycling, and modeling and uncertainty. Within each topic, the panel drew a series of conclusions, which are presented in this paper. These conclusions led us to concur that the answer to our question is a "qualified yes," with the qualification being dependent upon the level of uncertainty one is willing to accept. We agreed that the uncertainty is strongly dependent upon scale and that our question as stated is answerable with greater confidence both very near and very far from major point sources, assuming that the "global pool" is a recognizable "source." Many regions of interest from an ecosystem-exposure standpoint lie in between, where source attribution carries the greatest degree of uncertainty.     

The United Kingdom Acid Waters Monitoring Network: a review of the first 15 years and introduction to the special issue

The United Kingdom Acid Waters Monitoring Network (AWMN) was established in 1988 to determine the ecological impact of acidic emissions control policy on acid-sensitive lakes and streams. AWMN data have been used to explore a range of causal linkages necessary to connect changes in emissions to chemical and, ultimately, biological recovery. Regional scale reductions in sulphur (S) deposition have been found to have had an immediate influence on surface water chemistry, including increases in acid neutralising capacity, pH and alkalinity and declines in aluminium toxicity. These in turn can be linked to changes in the aquatic biota which are consistent with "recovery" responses. A continuation of the current programme is essential in order to better understand apparent non-linearity between nitrogen (N) in deposition and runoff, the substantial rise in organic acid concentrations, and the likely impacts of forecast climate change and other potential constraints on further biological improvement.     

Reconciling models and measurements to assess trends in atmospheric mercury deposition

Changes in atmospheric mercury deposition are used to evaluate the effectiveness of regulations controlling emissions. This analysis can be complicated by seemingly incongruent data from different model runs, model types, and field measurements. Here we present a case study example that describes how to identify trends in regional scale mercury deposition using best-available information from multiple data sources. To do this, we use data from three atmospheric chemistry models (CMAQ, GEOS-Chem, HYSPLIT) and multiple sediment archives (ombrotrophic bog, headwater lake, coastal salt marsh) from the Bay of Fundy region in Canada. Combined sediment and modeling data indicate that deposition attributable to US and Canadian emissions has declined in recent years, thereby increasing the relative significance of global sources. We estimate that anthropogenic emissions in the US and Canada account for 28-33% of contemporary atmospheric deposition in this region, with the rest from natural (14-32%) and global sources (41-53%).     

Natural emissions for regional modeling of background ozone and particulate matter and impacts on emissions control strategies

Natural emissions adopted in current regional air quality modeling are updated to better describe natural background ozone and PM concentrations for North America. The revised natural emissions include organosulfur from the ocean, NO from lightning, sea salt, biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, and pre-industrial levels of background methane. The model algorithm for SOA formation was also revised. Natural background ozone concentrations increase by up to 4 ppb in annual average over the southeastern US and Gulf of Mexico due to added NO from lightning while the revised biogenic emissions produced less ozone in the central and western US. Natural PM_2.5 concentrations generally increased with the revised natural emissions. Future year (2018) simulations were conducted for several anthropogenic emission reduction scenarios to assess the impact of the revised natural emissions on anthropogenic emission control strategies. Overall, the revised natural emissions did not significantly alter the ozone responses to the emissions reductions in 2018. With revised natural emissions, ozone concentrations were slightly less sensitive to reducing NOx in the southeastern US than with the current natural emissions due to higher NO from lightning. The revised natural emissions have little impact on modeled PM_2.5 responses to anthropogenic emission reductions. However, there are substantial uncertainties in current representations of natural sources in air quality models and we recommend that further study is needed to refine these representations.     

Increase in summer European ozone amounts due to climate change

The local and regional distribution of pollutants is significantly influenced by weather patterns and variability along with the spatial patterns of emissions. Therefore, climatic changes which affect local meteorological conditions can alter air quality. We use the regional air quality model CHIMERE driven by meteorological fields from regional climate change simulations to investigate changes in summer ozone mixing ratios over Europe under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Using three 30-year simulation periods, we find that daily peak ozone amounts as well as average ozone concentrations substantially increase during summer in future climate conditions. This is mostly due to higher temperatures and reduced cloudiness and precipitation over Europe and it leads to a higher number of ozone events exceeding information and warning thresholds. Our results show a pronounced regional variability, with the largest effects of climate change on ozone concentrations occurring over England, Belgium, Germany and France. The temperature-driven increase in biogenic emissions appears to enhance the ozone production and isoprene was identified as the most important chemical factor in the ozone sensitivity. We also find that summer ozone levels in future climate projections are similar to those found during the exceptionally warm and dry European summer of 2003. Our simulations suggest that in future climate conditions summer ozone might pose a much more serious threat to human health, agriculture and natural ecosystems in Europe, so that the effects of climate trends on pollutant amounts should be considered in future emission control measures.     

Effects on the function of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Historically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.     

Arctic Climate Tipping Points

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.     

Air pollutant source characterization using the revised regional haze tracking metric and a photochemical grid model and implications for regional haze planning

The 2017 revisions to the Regional Haze Rule clarify that visibility progress at Class I national parks and wilderness areas should be tracked on days with the highest anthropogenic contributions to haze (impairment). We compare the natural and anthropogenic contributions to haze in the western United States in 2011 estimated using the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommended method and using model projections from the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) and the Particulate Source Apportionment Tool (PSAT). We do so because these two methods will be used by states to demonstrate visibility progress by 2028. If the two methods assume different natural and anthropogenic contributions, the projected benefits of reducing U.S. anthropogenic emissions will differ. The EPA method assumes that episodic elevated carbonaceous aerosols greater than an annual 95th percentile threshold are natural events. For western U.S. IMPROVE monitoring sites reviewed in this paper, CAMx-PSAT confirms these episodes are impacted by carbon from wildfire or prescribed fire events. The EPA method assumes that most of the ammonium sulfate is anthropogenic in origin. At most western sites CAMx-PSAT apportions more of the ammonium sulfate on the most impaired days to global boundary conditions and anthropogenic Canadian, Mexican, and offshore shipping emissions than to U.S. anthropogenic sources. For ammonium nitrate and coarse mass, CAMx-PSAT apportions greater contributions to U.S. anthropogenic sources than the EPA method assigns to total anthropogenic contributions. We conclude that for western IMPROVE sites, the EPA method is effective in selecting days that are likely to be impacted by anthropogenic emissions and that CAMx-PSAT is an effective approach to estimate U.S. source contributions. Improved inventories, particularly international and natural emissions, and further evaluation of global and regional model performance and PSAT attribution methods are recommended to increase confidence in modeled source characterization.

Implications: The western states intend to use the CAMx model to project visibility progress by 2028. Modeled visibility response to changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions may be less than estimated using the EPA assumptions based on total U.S. and international anthropogenic contributions to visibility impairment. Additional model improvements are needed to better account for contributions to haze from natural and international emissions in current and future modeling years. These improvements will allow more direct comparison of model and EPA estimates of natural and anthropogenic contributions to haze and future visibility progress.     

What determines the current presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region, a sub-arctic landscape in northern Sweden?

In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Tornetr?sk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Tornetr?sk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Tornetr?sk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations.     

Modeling of mercury emission,transport and deposition in North America

Most studies on the atmospheric behaviour of mercury in North America have excluded a detailed treatment of natural mercury emissions. The objective of this work is to report a detailed simulation of the atmospheric mercury in a domain that covers a significant part of North America and includes not only anthropogenic mercury emissions but also those from natural sources including vegetation, soil and water.The simulations were done using a natural mercury emission model coupled with the US EPA's SMOKE/CMAQ modelling system. The domain contained 132×90 grid cells at a resolution of 36 km, covering the continental United States, and major parts of Canada and Mexico. The simulation was carried out for 2002, using boundary conditions from a global mercury model. Estimated total natural mercury emission in the domain was 230 tonnes (1 tonne=1000 kg) and the ratio of natural to anthropogenic emissions varied from 0.7 in January to 3.2 in July. Average total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentration ranged between 1 and 4 ng m⁻³. Good agreement was found between the modelled results and measurements at three Ontario sites for ambient mercury concentrations, and at 72 mercury deposition network sites in the domain for wet deposition. The correlation coefficient between the simulated and the measured values of the daily average TGM at three monitoring sites varied between 0.48 and 0.64. When natural emissions were omitted, the correlation coefficients dropped to between 0.15 and 0.40. About 335 tonnes of mercury were deposited in the domain during the simulation period but overall, it acted as a net source of mercury and contributed about 21 tonnes to the global pool. The net deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes was estimated to be about 2.4 tonnes. The estimated deposition values were similar to those reported by other researchers.     

European abatement of surface ozone in a global perspective

EU's programme Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) is presently revising the policy on air quality which will lead to the adoption of a thematic strategy on air pollution under the Sixth Environmental Action Programme by mid-2005. For the abatement of surface ozone it is becoming evident that processes outside European control will be crucial for meeting long-term aims and air quality guidelines in Europe in the future. Measurements and modelling results indicate that there is a strong link between climate change and surface ozone. A warmer and dryer European climate is very likely to lead to increased ozone concentrations. Furthermore, increased anthropogenic emissions in developing economies in Asia are likely to raise the hemispheric background level of ozone. A significant increase in the background concentration of ozone has been observed at several sites in Northern Europe although the underlying causes are not settled. The photochemical formation of tropospheric ozone from increased concentrations of methane and CO may also lead to a higher ozone level on a global scale. Gradually, these effects may outweigh the effect of the reduced European ozone precursor emissions. This calls for a global or hemispheric perspective in the revision of the European air quality policy for ozone.     

Atmospheric composition change – global and regional air quality

Air quality transcends all scales with in the atmosphere from the local to the global with handovers and feedbacks at each scale interaction. Air quality has manifold effects on health, ecosystems, heritage and climate. In this review the state of scientific understanding in relation to global and regional air quality is outlined. The review discusses air quality, in terms of emissions, processing and transport of trace gases and aerosols. New insights into the characterization of both natural and anthropogenic emissions are reviewed looking at both natural (e.g. dust and lightning) as well as plant emissions. Trends in anthropogenic emissions both by region and globally are discussed as well as biomass burning emissions. In terms of chemical processing the major air quality elements of ozone, non-methane hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and aerosols are covered. A number of topics are presented as a way of integrating the process view into the atmospheric context; these include the atmospheric oxidation efficiency, halogen and HO_x chemistry, nighttime chemistry, tropical chemistry, heat waves, megacities, biomass burning and the regional hot spot of the Mediterranean. New findings with respect to the transport of pollutants across the scales are discussed, in particular the move to quantify the impact of long-range transport on regional air quality. Gaps and research questions that remain intractable are identified. The review concludes with a focus of research and policy questions for the coming decade. In particular, the policy challenges for concerted air quality and climate change policy (co-benefit) are discussed.     

Hydrological change--climate change impact simulations for Sweden

Climate change resulting from the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to give rise to changes in hydrological systems. This hydrological change, as with the change in climate variables, will vary regionally around the globe. Impact studies at local and regional scales are needed to assess how different regions will be affected. This study focuses on assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change over a wide range of Swedish basins. Different methods of transferring the signal of climate change from climate models to hydrological models were used. Several hydrological model simulations using regional climate model scenarios from Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) are presented. A principal conclusion is that subregional impacts to river flow vary considerably according to whether a basin is in northern or southern Sweden. Furthermore, projected hydrological change is just as dependent on the choice of the global climate model used for regional climate model boundary conditions as the choice of anthropogenic emissions scenario.