大城市耕地资源人口承载力研究——以北京市为例

在全国城市化、工业化快速发展时期,北京等大城市耕地资源和粮食生产规模逐年下降,人口粮食需求对外依赖度提高,城市粮食保障度降低。以实证数据为基础对北京等大城市粮食安全问题进行了分析,结合乡村劳动力安置问题提出了保护大城市耕地资源的政策建议。     

基于耕地资源多情景下的人口承载潜力研究——以焦作市为例

在传统食物型人口承载力的基础上,把河南焦作地区设为研究区域,依据耕地资源、粮食生产和人口增长的历史状况,运用相关数学模型进行预测分析,并以此为依据对研究区域未来30年不同情景下的耕地资源人口承载潜力的可能变化过程进行了多情景模拟分析。研究表明：①随着社会经济的发展,无论以何种发展情景及人口消费水平,焦作地区耕地资源人口承载力均为富载状态,是重要的粮食主产区;②本区域在理想情景与适中情景发展模式下,耕地资源人口承载潜力均能超过现在的承载能力;③从模拟结果看,理想情景为最优方案,但考虑到研究区域的现状发展水平,适中情景发展模式可能更具操作性和合理性。     

安徽人口-粮食-耕地综合信息系统设计与开发

从GIS组件技术角度出发，以VB．net＋MapObjects＋ArcSDE8．3 for SQL Sever 2000为解决方案，结合数学模型，采用C／S三层架构模式，对安徽人口-粮食-耕地综合信息进行了系统设计和功能开发。该系统成功开发，将为有关部门解决人口、粮食与耕地问题提供有力的数据分析支持，从而提高管理和决策水平。     

青海省互助土族自治县粮食安全问题探讨

当前,世界粮价不断上涨,国际金融危机仍在蔓延和加深,粮食安全问题已成了共同关注的话题。本文运用粮食安全理论预测互助县耕地需求量,综合平衡法预测互助县耕地保有量,然后对比分析。互助县未来耕地保有量,近期基本能保证粮食安全,但长远来看,如果考虑到未来发展趋势人口增加、耕地面积减少、气候变化等因素影响,要解决该地区的粮食自给问题仍需要采取科学的保护措施。     

中国区域粮食生产与消费中的虚拟耕地平衡研究

从不同尺度分析了我国2008年粮食生产、消费中的虚拟耕地含量及虚拟耕地平衡空间分布规律.主要结论为:①2008年粮食生产虚拟耕地北方比南方多32396.8×107m2,人均粮食生产虚拟耕地量北方远远高于全国平均水平和南方,因粮食生产形成较为典型的虚拟耕地“北土南调”现象.②2008年粮食消费虚拟耕地北方比南方多6851.62×107m2.③从粮食生产与消费的虚拟耕地平衡空间分布规律来看,2008年虚拟耕地调出区全部位于我国北方地区,集中分布在两大地带:一是由黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古、新疆、宁夏5省(区)组成的我国北方边境沿线地带,二是由河南、安徽组成的中部区;调入区则集中在由东部沿海地区、中部省份和西部内陆省份组成的环状地带.     

山东省耕地变化动态平衡研究

山东省耕地资源总量虽在近几年相对增加,但总体仍呈下降趋势,且人均耕地面积下降速度更快,耕地资源状况不容乐观。目前全省各地市耕地总量变化的动态平衡程度不一,德州市是耕地资源动态平衡相对最好的地市,其次为青岛、枣庄和泰安市,莱芜市耕地资源动态平衡状况较差。利用主成分分析方法的计算结果表明,经济活动、社会人口和农业科技发展水平等因素为影响山东省耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子;在以上研究的基础上,预测了山东省人口承载力和2010年粮食短缺情况。     

人口流出对安徽省人口—耕地资源耦合关系的影响研究

以人口普查数据、土地利用变化数据为主要数据源,分析了2000—2010年安徽省人口(尤其是流动人口)和耕地资源的空间变化格局,采用空间耦合度模型衡量人口与耕地资源的空间耦合发展,结合安徽省潜山县实地调研情况,揭示人口流动对安徽省人口—耕地资源关系的影响。研究发现,2000—2010年安徽省超过90%的县市流出人口呈增加趋势,流出人口量大且增加快的区域主要分布在耕地资源集中的安徽省北部与中部地区;由于人口的大量流出,安徽省人口—耕地资源耦合关系从以强解耦关系为主转变为以负解耦关系为主,人口—耕地资源的紧张状况得以缓解。但通过潜山县的实地调研发现,农村青壮劳动力的大量流出、土地流转率低致使部分耕地资源被撂荒。研究结果警示,针对粮食主产区的农村人口大量流出问题应加快农村土地政策改革,引导土地经营权的有序流转,加快农业产业结构调整,维持农业可持续发展和保障国家粮食安全。     

日照市粮食生产的时空特征演变——基于耕地因素分解的视角

"藏粮于地"是新时期我国保障粮食安全的重要战略决策。分析山东省日照市粮食生产的时空演变规律,基于LMDI方法对影响粮食生产的耕地利用因素进行分解,可为优化地方耕地保护策略、保障粮食安全提供决策依据。结果表明:自2005年以来,日照市粮食生产地域分化特征显著,各区县影响粮食生产变化的主导因子不同:粮食单产减少是东港区粮食减产的首要因子;复种指数增加是拉动岚山区粮食生产的主要因素;耕地面积变化是造成东港区和莒县粮食变化的主导因子。政府应严格落实耕地占补平衡、土地用途管制,保证耕地质量,提升规划管控效果;不断提升耕地的规模化经营水平,走节约集约化道路;促进耕地利用转型升级,挖掘耕地资源潜力。     

全球环境变化与土壤水资源研究

当今世界人口、资源、粮食、环境的矛盾日趋尖锐,已危及人类生存。我国人口多,耕地少,土壤退化,资源短缺,环境质量趋于恶化。这些问题已越来越受到人们的广泛关注。在资源环境问题中,水资源对人类生存和粮食生产最为重要。所以研究世界水资源主要是研究陆地水资源的状况、贮量与变化,预测全球水资源对人类生存的影响,改善世界水资源状况,合理利用和调控水资源。它在缓解人口、资源、粮食和环境危机中将起决定性的作用。     

利用草业资源发展草食家畜的战略地位与对策

本文论述了我国耕地资源逐年减少,未来粮食生产不足与人口迅速增长、羊毛短缺与日益发展的毛纺工业急需,每年要花大量外汇进口羊毛的严峻国情,以及人民生活达“小康”要求改变食物组成和增加动物性营养,迫切需要利用我国丰富的草业资源优势,大力发展草食家畜的战略地位,并提出了切合我国实际的七条发展对策。     

Conversion of temperate forests into heaths: Role of ecosystem disturbance and ericaceous plants

Fire and logging in nutrient-poor temperate forests with certain ericaceous understory plants may convert the forests into heaths. The process of disturbance-induced heath formation is documented by using examples ofCalluna in western Europe,Kalmia in Newfoundland, andGaultheria (salal) in coastal British Columbia. In a cool, temperate climate, rapid vegetative growth ofCalluna, Kalmia, and salal following disturbance results in increasing organic accumulation (paludification), nutrient sequestration, soil acidification, and allelochemicals. These are thought to be the main reasons to conifer regeneration failure in disturbed habitats. If continuation in forest is a land-use objective, then temperate forests with an ericaceous understory should not be logged unless effective silvicultural methods are devised to control the ericaceous plants and restore forest regeneration. Preharvest vegetation control may be considered as an option. Failure to control the understory plants may lead to a long-term vegetation shift, from forest to heathland, particularly in nutrient-poor sites. Successful methods of controllingKalmia andGaultheria, however, have yet to be developed. While theKalmia- andGaultheria- dominated heathlands are undesirable in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, a wide range ofCalluna heathlands of western Europe are being conserved as natural and seminatural vegetation.     

Urban ecological systems: scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Urban ecological studies, including focus on cities, suburbs, and exurbs, while having deep roots in the early to mid 20th century, have burgeoned in the last several decades. We use the state factor approach to highlight the role of important aspects of climate, substrate, organisms, relief, and time in differentiating urban from non-urban areas, and for determining heterogeneity within spatially extensive metropolitan areas. In addition to reviewing key findings relevant to each state factor, we note the emergence of tentative "urban syndromes" concerning soils, streams, wildlife and plants, and homogenization of certain ecosystem functions, such as soil organic carbon dynamics. We note the utility of the ecosystem approach, the human ecosystem framework, and watersheds as integrative tools to tie information about multiple state factors together. The organismal component of urban complexes includes the social organization of the human population, and we review key modes by which human populations within urban areas are differentiated, and how such differentiation affects environmentally relevant actions. Emerging syntheses in land change science and ecological urban design are also summarized. The multifaceted frameworks and the growing urban knowledge base do however identify some pressing research needs.     

Neighbourhood characteristics and urban gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area: staffing and voluntarism,food production,infrastructure, and sustainability practices

Urban gardens are important sources of sustenance for communities with limited access to food. Hence, this study focuses on food production in gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area in Northwest Ohio. We administered surveys to 150 garden managers from November 2014 to February 2015 in our attempt to better understand how neighbourhood racial composition and poverty levels are related to staffing and voluntarism, food production and distribution, the development of infrastructure, and the adoption of sustainability practices in urban gardens. The results from 30 gardens are presented in this paper. We used Geographic Information Systems to map the gardens and overlay the map with 2010 census data so that we could conduct demographic analyses of the neighbourhoods in which the gardens were located. Though the gardens were small – two acres or less – up to 46 varieties of food were grown in a single garden. Gardens also operated on small budgets. Food from the gardens was gifted or shared with friends, family, and neighbourhood residents. Gardens in predominantly minority neighbourhoods tended to have fewer institutional partners, less garden infrastructure, and had adopted fewer sustainable practices than gardens in predominantly White neighbourhoods. Nonetheless, residents of predominantly minority and high-poverty neighbourhoods participated in garden activities and influenced garden operations. Volunteering and staffing were racialised and gendered.     

Using Paleo Reconstructions to Improve Streamflow Forecast Lead Time in the Western United States

In water stressed regions, water managers are exploring new horizons that would help in long‐range streamflow forecasts. Oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence streamflow variability. In this study, long‐lead time streamflow forecasts are made using a multiclass kernel‐based data‐driven support vector machine (SVM) model. The extended streamflow records based on tree ring reconstructions were used to provide a longer time series data. Reconstructed data were used from 1658 to 1952 and the instrumental record was used from 1953 to 2007. Reconstructions for oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations included the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. Streamflow forecasts using all four oscillations were made with one‐year to five‐year lead times for 21 gages in the western United States. This is the first study that uses both instrumental and reconstructed data of oscillations in SVM model to improve streamflow forecast lead time. SVM model was able to provide “satisfactory” to “very good” forecasts with one‐ to five‐year lead time for the selected gages. The use of all the oscillation indices helped in achieving better predictability compared to using individual oscillations. The SVM modeling results are better when compared with multiple linear regression model forecasts. The findings are statistical in nature and are expected to be useful for long‐term water resources planning and management.     

Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

MANGANESE CYCLE IN IMPOUNDMENT WATER

Manganese entering impounded water will undergo a cyclic transformation. Oxidation precipitates manganese from top waters. At the bottom of the lake, biological activity will render manganese soluble by both intracellular as well as extracellular activity. The study was made to demonstrate that biological reduction and transformation, organometallic complexation, together with the presence of carbon dioxide and the lowering of pH all have some effect on the solubility of manganese. Dissolved manganese may be brought back to top waters during the lake overturn and therefore deteriorates the water quality.     

Surface applied water treatment residuals affect bioavailable phosphorus losses in Florida sands

Water treatment residuals (WTR) can reduce runoff P loss and surface co-application of P-sources and WTR is a practical way of land applying the residuals. In a rainfall simulation study, we evaluated the effects of surface co-applied P-sources and an Al-WTR on runoff and leacheate bioavailable P (BAP) losses from a Florida sand. Four P-sources, namely poultry manure, Boca Raton biosolids (high water-soluble P), Pompano biosolids (moderate water-soluble P), and triple super phosphate (TSP) were surface applied at 56 and 224kgPha(-1) (by weight) to represent low and high soil P loads typical of P- and N-based amendments rates. The treatments further received surface applied WTR at 0 or 10gWTRkg(-1) soil. BAP loss masses were greater in leachate (16.4-536mg) than in runoff (0.91-46mg), but were reduced in runoff and leachate by surface applied WTR. Masses of total BAP lost in the presence of surface applied WTR were less than approximately 75% of BAP losses in the absence of WTR. Total BAP losses from each of the organic sources applied at N-based rates were not greater than P loss from TSP applied at a P-based rate. The BAP loss at the N-based rate of moderate water-soluble P-source (Pompano biosolids) was not greater than BAP losses at the P-based rates of other organic sources tested. The hazards of excess P from applying organic P-sources at N-based rates are not greater than observed at P-based rates of mineral fertilizer. Results suggest that management of the environmental P hazards associated with N-based rates of organic materials in Florida sands is possible by either applying P-sources with WTR or using a moderate water-soluble P-source.     

Sources and Transport of Phosphorus to Rivers in California and Adjacent States,U.S., as Determined by SPARROW Modeling

The SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes) model was used to simulate annual phosphorus loads and concentrations in unmonitored stream reaches in California, U.S., and portions of Nevada and Oregon. The model was calibrated using de‐trended streamflow and phosphorus concentration data at 80 locations. The model explained 91% of the variability in loads and 51% of the variability in yields for a base year of 2002. Point sources, geological background, and cultivated land were significant sources. Variables used to explain delivery of phosphorus from land to water were precipitation and soil clay content. Aquatic loss of phosphorus was significant in streams of all sizes, with the greatest decay predicted in small‐ and intermediate‐sized streams. Geological sources, including volcanic rocks and shales, were the principal control on concentrations and loads in many regions. Some localized formations such as the Monterey shale of southern California are important sources of phosphorus and may contribute to elevated stream concentrations. Many of the larger point source facilities were located in downstream areas, near the ocean, and do not affect inland streams except for a few locations. Large areas of cultivated land result in phosphorus load increases, but do not necessarily increase the loads above those of geological background in some cases because of local hydrology, which limits the potential of phosphorus transport from land to streams.     

Animal Consciousness and Ethics in Asia and the Pacific

The interactions between humans, animals and the environment have shaped human values and ethics, not only the genes that we are made of. The animal rights movement challenges human beings to reconsider interactions between humans and other animals, and maybe connected to the environmental movement that begs us to recognize the fact that there are symbiotic relationships between humans and all other organisms. The first part of this paper looks at types of bioethics, the implications of autonomy and the value of being alive. Then the level of consciousness of these relationships are explored in survey results from Asia and the Pacific, especially in the 1993 International Bioethics Survey conducted in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, The Philippines, Russia, Singapore and Thailand. Very few mentioned animal consciousness in the survey, but there were more biocentric comments in Australia and Japan; and more comments with the idea of harmony including humans in Thailand. Comparisons between questions and surveys will also be made, in an attempt to describe what people imagine animal consciousness to be, and whether this relates to human ethics of the relationships. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.