The potential supply of energy minerals in Australia

Australia is a sparsely populated country that is well endowed with energy resources, and the size of coal, natural gas, and uranium reserves relative to domestic demand has given Australia the opportunity to become a major exporter of these fuels. This paper assesses Australian supply potential of these three fuels, together with crude oil, through to the early years of the next century. With the exception of crude oil, supply potential appears adequate to meet projected domestic and export demand. However, crude oil supplies are unlikely to meet domestic requirements, and to the shortfall may be considerable.     

Mining and sustainable development: considerations for minerals supply

Sustainable development involves meeting the needs of human societies while maintaining viable biological and physical Earth systems. The needs include minerals: metals, fuels, industrial and construction materials. There will continue to be considerable demand for virgin mineral resources, even if levels of recycling and efficiency of use are optimal, and rates of population growth and globalisation decrease significantly. This article aims to stimulate debate on strategic issues for minerals supply. While the world has considerable stocks of mineral resources overall, international considerations of the environmental and social aspects of sustainable development are beginning to result in limitations on where mining will be conducted and what types of deposits will be mined. Current and emerging trends favour large mines in parts of the world where mining can be conducted within acceptable limits of environmental and social impact. Finding new deposits that meet such criteria will be all the more challenging given a disturbing global decline in the rate of discovery of major economic resources over the last decade, and the decreasing land area available for exploration and mining.
To attract responsible exploration and mining, governments of mining nations will need to provide: regional-scale geo-scientific datasets as required to attract and guide future generations of exploration; resource access through multiple and sequential land use regimes, and frameworks for dealing with indigenous peoples' issues; and arrangements for consideration of mining proposals and regulation of mines that ensure responsible management of environmental and social issues.
The minerals industry will need to continue to pursue advances in technologies for exploration, mining, processing, waste management and rehabilitation, and in public reporting of environmental and social performance.     

Spatial modeling of harvest constraints on wood supply versus wildlife habitat objectives

We studied the effects of spatial and temporal timber harvesting constraints on competing objectives of sustaining wildlife habitat supply and meeting timber harvest objectives in a boreal mixedwood forest. A hierarchical modeling approach was taken, where strategic and tactical level models were used to project blocking and scheduling of harvest blocks. Harvest block size and proximity, together with short- and long-term temporal constraints, were adjusted in a factorial manner to allow creation of response-surface models. A new measure of the habitat mosaic was defined to describe the emergent pattern of habitat across the landscape. These models, together with multiple linear regression, were used to provide insight on convergence or divergence between spatial objectives. For example, green-up delay (defined as time required before a harvest block adjacent to a previously logged block can be scheduled for harvest) had an adverse effect on the amount of annual harvest area that could be allocated and blocked spatially, and habitat supply responded in an opposite direction to that of wood supply, where caribou, moose wintering, and marten habitat supply increased when harvest blocks were further apart, maximum block size smaller, and both a green-up delay and mesoscale stratification were applied. Although there was no "solution space" free of conflicts, the analysis suggests that application of the mesoscale stratification, together with a diversity of harvest block sizes and a between-harvest block proximity of 250 m, will perform relatively well with respect to wood supply objectives, and at the same time create a less fragmented landscape that better reflects natural forest patterns.     

The future markets for minerals: Some causes of uncertainty

This paper argues that the major uncertainties surrounding the future markets for minerals derive from three serious lacunae in mineral intelligence – first, the altered investment climate for minerals, the undetermined magnitude and geography of its effects, and its prospective impact upon supply; second, the paucity of macroeconomic, medium-term forecasts for the OECD economies, a deficiency that has seriously undermined the possibility of generating useful resource demand forecasts; and third, the indeterminate speed at which changes in the geography of mineral processing activities and metal manufacture are likely to occur.     

The role of FIDEICOMISO of non-metallic minerals

FIDEICOMISO of non-metallic minerals is a trust development fund aimed at providing credit and technical assistance for the exploitation, beneficiation and downstream processing of non-metallics. FIDEICOMISO'S funding comes from, in order of importance, the World Bank, operational revenues and federal funds. It is a second tier financial institution operating through the commercial banking system, the latter providing the retail role. In 1987 and 1988 the FIDEICOMISO approved credits for $23 million and $46 million respectively.     

US federal tax policy: The evolution of percentage depletion for minerals

We are often tempted to believe that a nation's resource policy is the result of careful deliberation and conscious design and is articulated in a relatively few statutes. This paper traces the history of percentage depletion in the USA and finds that this particular resource policy has evolved in the absence of a recognizable master plan. Percentage depletion has developed through a continuing political tug-of-war in the US Congress as a seemingly unending array of special interest groups sought and finally gained the prize of percentage depletion for their industry.     

Geological supply and economic demand: The unresolved equation

Whereas the ultimate world supply of minerals is controlled by geological factors, the actual supply at any particular time is controlled by economic factors. Mineral production is a function of investment in exploration, mining, and processing - and research in these fields. Given the long lead time between a decision to explore and actual production from any deposit found, the increasing difficulty of finding deposits in the well prospected parts of the world, the political barriers to exploration in the less developed countries, the energy barriers to mining and processing ever lower grade ores, and the lengthy time required to develop new exploration, extraction, and processing techniques, adjustments in supply in response to changes in demand cannot be assumed to be automatic.     

The significance of futures trading in minerals and oil

Futures trading has been introduced for aluminium and oil in recent years and the range of contracts available on various minerals and oil products continues to widen. Concern has been expressed by producers of a number of minerals, including nickel and platinum, that the introduction of futures trading may introduce a speculative element to price determination that will create inappropriate or excessively volatile prices. It is the purpose of this article to analyse the role of futures trading in relation to trade in underlying commodities in general and especially for trade in minerals and oil. Evidence from oil and platinum markets, in particular, is adduced and examined in the light of earlier evidence of the influence of futures trading on underlying commodities. The contribution of futures trading is examined in detail and conclusions are reached on the significance of futures trading for minerals and oil.     

The integrated programme for commodities: An assessment of negotiations on minerals and metals

No agreement has yet emerged from the negotiations on mineral commodities held under the Integrated Programme for Commodities (IPC), and there is little, if any, prospect for one in the near future. This article examines the reasons for this standstill and the underlying assumptions on which the IPC is based. The following points are raised: the premise that problems of individual commodities are mutually exclusive and can be dealt with in a single framework of measures is shown to be doubtful; the principle of a commodity-by-commodity approach can no longer remain unchallenged; and structural flaws in the negotiating machinery are manifest. However, results of negotiations have not been entirely negative: the need for two-tier preparatory negotiations has been accepted and a case for a permanent consultative body, perhaps covering several commodities, has been made out. Lack of substantive reciprocity, hence political discord, remains the stumbling-block.     

The Environmental sustainability of mining in Australia: key mega-trends and looming constraints

At first ‘sustainable mining’ could be perceived as a paradox—minerals are widely held to be finite resources with rising consumption causing pressure on known resources. The true sustainability of mineral resources, however, is a much more complex picture and involves exploration, technology, economics, social and environmental issues, and advancing scientific knowledge—predicting future sustainability is therefore not a simple task. This paper presents the results from a landmark study on historical trends in Australian mining, including ore milled, ore grades, open cut versus underground mining, overburden/waste rock and economic resources. When complete data sets are compiled for specific metals, particular issues stand out with respect to sustainability—technological breakthroughs (e.g. flotation, carbon-in-pulp), new discoveries (e.g. uranium or U), price changes (e.g. Au, boom/bust cycles), social issues (e.g. strikes), etc. All of these issues are of prime importance in moving towards a semi-quantitative sustainability model of mineral resources and the mining industry. For the future, critical issues will continue to be declining ore grades (also ore quality and impurities), increased waste rock and associated liabilities, known economic resources, potential breakthrough technologies, and broader environmental constraints (e.g. carbon costs, water). For this latter area, many companies now report annually on sustainability performance—facilitating analysis of environmental sustainability with respect to production performance. By linking these two commonly disparate aspects—mining production and environmental/sustainability data—it becomes possible to better understand environmental sustainability and predict future constraints such as water requirements, greenhouse emissions, energy and reagent inputs, and the like. This paper will therefore present a range of fundamental data and issues which help towards quantifying the resource and environmental sustainability of mining—with critical implications for the mining industry and society as a whole.     

Changing Trends in World Metal Demand: The Case of Tin

This paper examines the changing trends in world tin demand for the period 1962–1985. In the early 1970s tin production peaked, and has since declined. The reasons for the decline are examined in terms of changes in product composition of income (i.e. mix of goods and services), changes in material composition of products, decline in gross domestic investment and the rising price of tin.     

The raw material supply of the European Community : The importance of secondary raw materials

The availability and security of raw materials supply have taken on a new political dimension within the last few years. These issues influence the economic and political rank of nations, affecting their independence, their standards of living and the competitive position of their industries. The importance of raw materials supply will continue to grow, for both the developed industrial and the developing countries. The European Community depends on external sources for 50–100% of most of its raw materials. Although the degree of dependence varies considerably from commodity to commodity, sources are not diversified enough to guarantee supply. Yet 1700–2000 million tons of waste are generated annually in the Community, containing substances of potential value—including metals, glass, rubber, textiles, oil, plastics—of which 70– 80% are tipped. This represents a loss of materials as far as they could be reused economically. This article argues that efforts should be made to recover and reuse the maximum possible of these resources to reduce the Community's dependence on, and improve its security of, raw materials supplies, and to lower the balance of payments burden.     

The illegal trading of high unit value minerals in developing countries

Attracted by the high unit value and low barriers to entry in terms of capital requirements, technology, infrastructure, minimum reserves and implementation time, the artisanal and small-scale mining of high unit value minerals, such as gemstones, diamonds and gold, has grown to significant proportions in developing countries. This is manifested by the value of output and large numbers of miners engaged in this activity. Despite the expansion of the subsector, its national economic role in many developing countries has largely been disappointing, primarily due to high levels of illegal trading activity. The objectives of this paper are to identify major factors responsible for the declaration problem. The economic impact of such activities is pointed out. To conclude the discussion, options are presented that provide a basis for eliminating illegal marketing practices and thereby strengthening the economic role of the subsector in meeting national development objectives of developing countries .     

The role of the Australian minerals industry in world mineral supplies

Australia is one of the world's main producers and exporters of both fuel and non-fuel minerals. Among the main commodities produced for export are bauxite/alumina, iron ore, and nickel—Australia is also an increasingly important source of supply of black coal, especially for Japan, and is a significant producer and exporter of a number of base metals. Resources are adequate to support a substantial expansion of both non-oil fuels and other minerals. The potential for growth, both in terms of specific commodities and in the overall role of Australia in the world mineral industry, will depend to a very large extent on the cost competitiveness of Australian mining and on continuing inflow of capital.     

Assessment of risk in a minerals industry: Canadian nickel

The level of rents attributable to natural resource producers depends on the risk faced by those producers. This paper argues that estimates of risk in mining should control for characteristics of firms such as diversification and debt financing. The capital asset pricing model is applied to securities of three Canadian nickel mining firms over the period 1961–1974. It is concluded that the level of risk was not unusually high.     

The competitive position of Canadian copper supply

The author examines the proposition that the Canadian copper industry has reached a mature, less competitive, stage of growth. Employing a break-even-cost approach, he compares the Canadian industry to those of other copper-producing nations in terms of cost competitiveness and prospects for new entrants. He finds little evidence to support the proposition, and concludes that Canada's copper industry will continue to maintain its strong competitive position during the 1980s.