Gold demand and supply

Western mine production of gold has been declining in the past five years — at the same time as the price of gold has risen dramatically. Predictions of a continued high demand for gold and the current US interest in adopting some form of ‘gold standard’ have focused attention on the supply of new gold. This paper discusses the structure of gold supply and demand, the present pattern of production of new gold and the possible effect of future price changes on Western gold mine production in the 1980s.     

Non-ferrous metals and economic growth: The future demand for lead

As national economies grow, requirements for physical resources increase. This paper attempts to forecast future world demand for lead, by deriving a relationship between the amount consumed per capita and the level of economic development, and then using this to generate world demand figures based on some predictions of future economic growth. Although the rate of increase in demand for lead may decline as high levels of GDP are reached, it is nevertheless predicted that world annual demand could continue rising exponentially over the next 50 or 60 years, in the absence of constraints due to lack of physical resources or very high differential prices. This is essentially because large areas of the world will still be increasing their GDP per capita over the range where the rate of increase in demand for lead is increasing steeply.     

Review of world sulphur demand and supply

Data on the sulphur market and sulphur production are presented for the period 1975–88 and projections are given for both to 2000. The largest consumer of sulphur during the period under review was the fertilizer industry. In general a surplus of sulphur is expected by 1995, but that should disappear by 2000. The validity of the prediction depends on no new environmental constraints and on the development of large sulphur deposits in Eastern Europe and the USSR.     

US copper supply : An economic/engineering analysis of cost—supply relationships

The authors present short- and long-term supply schedules for the primary US copper industry. These schedules are based on the economic theory of supply, and are derived from site- and input-specific cost data. Cost figures are arrived at by a combination of engineering process analysis and statistical cost estimation. The supply functions can be used to evaluate the effects of changes in market, policy, or other variables on US copper supply.     

The supply and demand outlook for energy in the Asia—Pacific region

Years of strong economic growth in the Asia—Pacific region have resulted in unprecedented increases in energy demand in the region, particularly for oil and gas. The supply of oil and gas to the region will become more problematic as the decade progresses. Already 50% dependent on imported oil, this figure will rise to nearly 65% by 2000. Because high rates of domestic oil demand growth among traditional petroleum exporters - Indonesia. China and Malaysia - will absorb exportable surpluses, the region will find itself dependent on the Middle East for at least 90% of its imported oil needs by 2000. Currently linked to oil, LNG prices cannot justify the investments needed to bring new greenfield projects on line. With demand expected to exceed 67 million tonnes (Mt) in 2000 and 100 Mt in 2010. over 50 Mt of new capacity will be needed; satisfying this demand will necessitate a new pricing structure for LNG, raising the price substantially above the relative price of crude oil.     

Regional industrial ecology: examples from regional economic systems of forest industry and energy supply in Finland

Industrial ecology (IE) promotes the development of industrial systems based on recycling of matter and cascading of energy through cooperation. In this paper, the local/regional industrial ecosystem approach is reflected in two examples from Finland. The local forest industry system is based on renewable resources, waste materials and energy utilisation between forestry companies, a saw-mill, a pulp mill, a paper mill and a forest industry power plant. Waste energy from electricity production is used for production of heat and process steam. Regional city energy supply systems in Finland are also to a large extent arranged around power plants that utilise waste energy. The potential of combining the forest industry system with the energy supply systems of cities is considered and the conditions for success in the Finnish case are discussed.     

Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050

The adverse impacts of climate change are widely recognized as well as the importance of the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO₂). Battery driven vehicles are expected to have a bright future, since GHG emissions can be reduced. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries appear to be the most promising, due to their high energy density. Recently, the discussion concerning adequate lithium carbonate (Li₂CO₃) resources is resolved. The current challenge is the needed increase in flow rate of Li₂CO₃ into society to foresee in forecasted demand. This research determines ten factors which influence the availability of Li-ion batteries for the EU27 in the coming decades. They are used in a system dynamics analysis. The results of this research show that undersupply can be expected in the EU27 until 2045 somewhere between 0.5 Mt and 2.8 Mt. Substitution of Li₂CO₃ in other end-use markets and recycling can relieve the strain on Li₂CO₃ supply to some extent. In 2050, 20% of the vehicle fleet in the EU27 can be battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The lack of resources in the EU27 and the geographical distribution of lithium in politically sensitive areas suggest that the shares of lithium available for the EU27 will be less than assumed in this research. The increase in flow rate shows to be the bottle-neck for a transition to (partly) battery driven vehicles in the EU27, at least when Li-ion batteries are used. Focusing on large-scale application of BEVs with Li-ion batteries in order to substantially mitigate CO₂ emissions in transport is a futile campaign.     

Rainwater reuse supply and demand response in urban elementary school of different districts in Taipei

This study primarily assesses rainwater supply and demand for Taipei City elementary school to develop a method to derive the rainwater reuse system. This work will help planners build water reuse systems for the sites, and facilitate the water demand of school. This study also analyzes rainfall records from fifteen weather stations in Taipei City to evaluate the rainfall changes in the region's morphology, and measures the rainfall supply in the sub-district of Taipei. The effect of water demand factors is also analyzed with linear regressions applied to estimate the change in monthly water demand for Taipei elementary schools. This work assumes that 35% of total water demand can replaced with rainwater. This work creates an active model for comparisons of each Taipei elementary site rainwater supply trend, demand drift, and maximum rainwater use percentage based on the rainwater reuse system. The efficacy of implementing rainwater reuse in Taipei is identified.     

The demand for platinum

The platinum group metals are among the scarcest of metallic elements and are critical to industry, having in the main no viable substitutes. South Africa is the Western world's major supplier, and the paper considers the action the Western world should be taking to insure against the dislocation that would arise from serious supply disruption from that source.     

The economics of uranium demand

The major characteristics of the demand for uranium are identified, and a number of factors which determine the actual level of uranium requirements of the nuclear power industry are discussed. Since the role of inventories is central to the process of short-term price formation, by comparing projections of uranium production and apparent consumption, the relative level of total inventories is calculated and an assessment is made of its likely impact on the uranium market during the 1980s.     

The Australian coal industry: An economic appraisal

Increasing productivity of open-cut mines in New South Wales and Queensland has been an important element in the expansion of the Australian black coal industry, which now supplies domestic electricity and iron and steel industries as well as increasing export orders. Industry is capable of strong growth but some changes in government policies are needed to ensure that infrastracture is provided and growth is economically efficient and compatible with environmental considerations. Increasing output is likely to prevent the reemergence of manpower problems which once plagued the industry, but such problems could surface if growth is not maintained.     

The link between 'green' and economic success: environmental management as the crucial trigger between environmental and economic performance

The link between environmental and economic performance has been widely debated in the literature for the last ten to fifteen years. One view is that improved environmental performance mainly causes extra costs for the firm and thus reduces profitability. However, also the opposite has been argued for: improved environmental performance would induce cost savings and increase sales and thus improve economic performance. Theoretical and empirical research have provided arguments for both positions and have not been conclusive so far. This article discusses reasons for the different views and the differences in empirical research and presents a theoretical framework to explain the coexistence of the conflicting views. It is argued that not merely the level of environmental performance, but mainly the kind of environmental management with which a certain level is achieved, influences the economic outcome. The model presented provides implications for both empirical research and company management in practice. Research and business practice should focus less on general correlations and more on causal relationships of eco-efficiency, i.e. the effect of different environmental management approaches on economic performance.     

System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Comment: Investor demand and spot commodity prices

Tilton et al. claim in their article “Investor demand and spot commodity prices” to show that “investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling.” In the present comment, it is argued that in both the cases described by Tilton et al., investors are supplying the market, putting physical material into it, rather than adding to demand. Thus, the reasoning by Tilton et al. is not concerned with the phenomenon referred to in the traditional theory, where, in the absence of changes in demand and supply fundamentals, prices rise as a result of increased investor demand for futures contracts.     

Reply: Investor demand and spot commodity prices

In a recent article (Tilton, Humphreys, and Radetzki, 2011), Tilton et al. argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise. They contend that this conclusion, which is based on two hypothetical examples, is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In my comment on the article (Olle Östensson, 2011), I challenged this finding. In a reply to my article, Tilton et al. maintain that their original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when stocks are falling. In my present reply, I contend that their argument with respect to the first example confuses the actions of a minority of investors with those of all investors and is well accommodated within the framework of traditional theory. I further argue that their second example rests on an assumption regarding investor behavior that is unproven and that in any case falls outside the framework of analysis of futures markets.     

Investor demand and spot commodity prices: Reply

In a recent article (Tilton et al., 2011), we argue that even when investor stocks are declining an increase in investor demand can cause a commodity's price to rise, a conclusion that is both contrary to conventional wisdom and counter-intuitive. In his comment on our article, Olle Östensson (2011) challenges this finding. After assessing his concerns in this reply, we maintain that our original finding is valid: investor demand can be driving commodity prices higher even when investor stocks are falling.     

The relationship between inbound tourism and economic growth: Case of Botswana

This study investigates the relationship between inbound tourism expansion and economic growth in Botswana, employing time series data from 1988 to 2019. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds tests and Toda and Yamamoto causality test were utilized for cointegration and direction of causality analyses, respectively. The study findings suggest and validate a tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) both in the long and short run. However, inbound tourism expansion has a modest impact on the country's economic growth, which causes concern and need for improvement. Therefore, the study suggests that there should be strengthening and expediting of tourism product diversification for enhanced tourism experiences and tourist spending. The tourism sector should be restructured to curb high economic and financial leakages, create strong linkages with other sectors, and adopt a mixed-price model to promote domestic tourism and local beneficiation.     

World supply of non fuel minerals: The geological constraints

The feasibility of trebling production of essential non fuel minerals by AD 2000 is considered in relation to a rise in world population to 6 billion (10⁹). Adequate supplies of common bulk ‘minerals’ like sand and gravel, brick clays and saline deposits, are assured, but mining will place additional strains on local environments. Ores of the metals that can be regarded as available in sufficient quantities include iron, aluminium, chromium, titanium, copper and nickel, and possibly also lead and zinc. In spite of the geological constraints imposed by complexity of geometry and genesis, reasoned resource estimates are possible for these, but they may not be feasible for rarer necessary minerals, such as those of the precious metals, mercury, niobium and flourine. The extraction of even the commonest of the non fuel minerals is conditioned by the availability of abundant energy at economic prices – this should be regarded as the critical factor.