Estimation of Evapotranspiration Across the Conterminous United States Using a Regression With Climate and Land‐Cover Data1

Sanford, Ward E. and David L. Selnick, 2012. Estimation of Evapotranspiration Across the Conterminous United States Using a Regression with Climate and Land‐Cover Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12010 Abstract: Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important quantity for water resource managers to know because it often represents the largest sink for precipitation (P) arriving at the land surface. In order to estimate actual ET across the conterminous United States (U.S.) in this study, a water‐balance method was combined with a climate and land‐cover regression equation. Precipitation and streamflow records were compiled for 838 watersheds for 1971‐2000 across the U.S. to obtain long‐term estimates of actual ET. A regression equation was developed that related the ratio ET/P to climate and land‐cover variables within those watersheds. Precipitation and temperatures were used from the PRISM climate dataset, and land‐cover data were used from the USGS National Land Cover Dataset. Results indicate that ET can be predicted relatively well at a watershed or county scale with readily available climate variables alone, and that land‐cover data can also improve those predictions. Using the climate and land‐cover data at an 800‐m scale and then averaging to the county scale, maps were produced showing estimates of ET and ET/P for the entire conterminous U.S. Using the regression equation, such maps could also be made for more detailed state coverages, or for other areas of the world where climate and land‐cover data are plentiful.     

Evaluation of the National Land Cover Database for Hydrologic Applications in Urban and Suburban Baltimore,Maryland1

Smith, Monica Lipscomb, Weiqi Zhou, Mary Cadenasso, Morgan Grove, and Lawrence E. Band, 2010. Evaluation of the National Land Cover Database for Hydrologic Applications in Urban and Suburban Baltimore, Maryland. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):429-442. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00412.x Abstract: We compared the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2001 land cover, impervious, and canopy data products to land cover data derived from 0.6-m resolution three-band digital imagery and ancillary data. We conducted this comparison at the 1 km², 9 km², and gauged watershed scales within the Baltimore Ecosystem Study to determine the usefulness and limitations of the NLCD in heterogeneous urban to exurban environments for the determination of land-cover information for hydrological applications. Although the NLCD canopy and impervious data are significantly correlated with the high-resolution land-cover dataset, both layers exhibit bias at <10 and >70% cover. The ratio of total impervious area and connected impervious area differs along the range of percent imperviousness – at low percent imperviousness, the NLCD is a better predictor of pavement alone, whereas at higher percent imperviousness, buildings and pavement together more resemble NLCD impervious estimates. The land-cover composition and range for each NLCD urban land category (developed open space, low-intensity, medium-intensity, and high-intensity developed) is more variable in areas of low-intensity development. Fine-vegetation land-cover/lawn area is incorporated in a large number of land use categories with no ability to extract this land cover from the NLCD. These findings reveal that the NLCD may yield important biases in urban, suburban, and exurban hydrologic analyses where land cover is characterized by fine-scale spatial heterogeneity.     

Cultural Influence on Crowding Norms in Outdoor Recreation: A Comparative Analysis of Visitors to National Parks in Turkey and the United States

Formulation of standards of quality in parks and outdoor recreation can be guided by normative theory and related empirical methods. We apply this approach to measure the acceptability of a range of use levels in national parks in Turkey and the United States. Using statistical methods for comparing norm curves across contexts, we find significant differences among Americans, British, and Turkish respondents. In particular, American and British respondents were substantially less tolerant of seeing other visitors and demonstrated higher norm intensity than Turkish respondents. We discuss the role of culture in explaining these findings, paying particular attention to Turkey as a traditional “contact culture” and the conventional emphasis on solitude and escape in American environmental history and policy. We conclude with a number of recommendations to stimulate more research on the relationship between culture and outdoor recreation.     

The changing face of public concern about pollution in the United States: A case study of New Jersey

National surveys and a survey conducted by the authors in March and April 2004 revealed that the public’s concerns about air, water and land pollution have declined during the last four years in the United States and more specifically in the State of New Jersey. In New Jersey pollution remains a major concern of most residents, even during a period of a war, anxiety about terrorism and the economy. Those most anxious about pollution do not believe that government is doing enough to protect the environment, want to maintain current environmental laws, and are worried about the future. Disproportionately they are African and White Americans, middle income, and college graduates, in other words, part of the American mainstream. Direct attempts to weaken environmental protection are likely to be resisted by this core of the population, which does not trust current federal, state and local governments to protect the environment. We expect concerns for the environment to continue and yet change as production processes in the United States continue a trend toward pollution prevention, and we wait for the public’s mental models to catch up with this evolving reality.     

LCA in Japan: A survey of current practices and legislative trends and comparison to the United States

Interviews were carried out with Japanese firms and environmental agencies regarding their current practices regarding life-cycle assessment (LCA). The results of this informal survey are compared with an executive survey of U.S. Fortune 500 companies. The findings show that Japanese LCA activity has increased rapidly over the past four years with several government agencies involved in LCA. Private industry has also founded LCA forums and recycling centers. The primary Japanese LCA interests include use in ecodesign and ecolabeling with the main environmental efforts focused on design for environment. Solid waste was identified as the most significant current environmental problem in Japan, in contrast to the United States where atmospheric and liquid discharges are ranked equally important. Neither the Japanese nor EPA plan to use LCA as a regulatory tool. This article summarizes several LCA case studies performed in Japan and lists the agencies involved in LCA development, ISO 14000, and ecoauditing/ecolabeling. Some recent Japanese legislation affecting LCA is also reviewed.     

The Value of Countryside Access: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Visitors to the Ridgeway National Trail in the United Kingdom

A contingent valuation survey of users of the 140 km Ridgeway National Trail was undertaken to estimate the value that users place on access to the Trail. The survey found that users had a mean willingness to pay for access to the Ridgeway of £1.24 per visit (£1.13– £1.36 95% Confidence Limits). With around 150 000 visits to the Ridgeway each year, this gives an estimated annual aggregate benefit of £186 000 (£169 500– £204 000 95% Confidence Limits) plus the economic benefits to local economies of visitor spending of some £0.8 million. This compares with the costs of Trail maintenance of around £154 000 per year. The development of National Trails in England for recreation and tourism is also discussed.     

Avian Mortality at Oil Pits in the United States: A Review of the Problem and Efforts for Its Solution

Oil production operations produce waste fluids that may be stored in pits, open tanks, and other sites accessible to wildlife. Birds visit these fluid-filled pits and tanks (“oil pits”), which often resemble water sources, and may become trapped and die. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has a program to reduce these impacts by locating problem pits, documenting mortality of protected wildlife species, and seeking cleanup or corrective action at problem pits with the help of state and federal agencies regulating the oil industry. Species identification and verification of protected status for birds recovered from oil pits are performed at the USFWS National Fish and Wildlife Forensics Laboratory. From 1992 to 2005, a minimum of 2060 individual birds were identified from remains recovered from oil pits, representing 172 species from 44 families. The taxonomic and ecological diversity of these birds indicates that oil pits pose a threat to virtually all species of birds that encounter them. Ninety-two percent of identified bird remains belonged to protected species. Most remains identified at the Forensics Laboratory were from passerines, particularly ground-foraging species. Based on Forensics Laboratory and USFWS field data, oil pits currently cause the deaths of 500,000–1 million birds per year. Although law enforcement and industry efforts have produced genuine progress on this issue, oil pits remain a significant source of mortality for birds in the United States.     

Integrating forage,wildlife, water,and fish projections with timber projections at the regional level: A case study in southern United States

The impact of timber management and land-use change on forage production, turkey and deer abundance, red-cockaded woodpecker colonies, water yield, and trout abundance was projected as part of a policy study focusing on the southern United States. The multiresource modeling framework used in this study linked extant timber management and land-area policy models with newly developed models for forage, wildlife, fish, and water. Resource production was integrated through a commonly defined land base that could be geographically partitioned according to individual resource needs. Resources were responsive to changes in land use, particularly human-related, and timber management, particularly the harvest of older stands, and the conversion to planted pine.     

AI-based runoff simulation based on remote sensing observations: A case study of two river basins in the United States and Canada

Data-driven techniques are used extensively for hydrologic time-series prediction. We created various data-driven models (DDMs) based on machine learning: long short-term memory (LSTM), support vector regression (SVR), extreme learning machines, and an artificial neural network with backpropagation, to define the optimal approach to predicting streamflow time series in the Carson River (California, USA) and Montmorency (Canada) catchments. The moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-coverage dataset was applied to improve the streamflow estimate. In addition to the DDMs, the conceptual snowmelt runoff model was applied to simulate and forecast daily streamflow. The four main predictor variables, namely snow-coverage (S-C), precipitation (P), maximum temperature (T_max), and minimum temperature (T_min), and their corresponding values for each river basin, were obtained from National Climatic Data Center and National Snow and Ice Data Center to develop the model. The most relevant predictor variable was chosen using the support vector machine-recursive feature elimination feature selection approach. The results show that incorporating the MODIS snow-coverage dataset improves the models' prediction accuracies in the snowmelt-dominated basin. SVR and LSTM exhibited the best performances (root mean square error = 8.63 and 9.80) using monthly and daily snowmelt time series, respectively. In summary, machine learning is a reliable method to forecast runoff as it can be employed in global climate forecasts that require high-volume data processing.     

The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens,Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability1

Campana, Pete, John Knox, Andrew Grundstein, and John Dowd, 2012. The 2007‐2009 Drought in Athens, Georgia, United States: A Climatological Analysis and an Assessment of Future Water Availability. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 379‐390. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00619.x Abstract: Population growth and development in many regions of the world increase the demand for water and vulnerability to water shortages. Our research provides a case study of how population growth can augment the severity of a drought. During 2007‐2009, a drought event that caused extreme societal impacts occurred in the Athens, Georgia region (defined as Clarke, Barrow, Oconee, and Jackson counties). An examination of drought indices and precipitation records indicates that conditions were severe, but not worse than during the 1925‐1927, 1954‐1956, and 1985‐1987 drought events. A drought of similar length to the 2007‐2009 drought would be expected to occur approximately every 25 years. Streamflow analysis shows that discharge levels in area streams were at a record low during 2007 before water restrictions were implemented, because of greater water usage caused by recent population increases. These population increases, combined with a lack of water conservation, led to severe water shortages in the Athens region during late 2007. Only after per capita usage decreased did water resources last despite continuing drought conditions through 2009. Retaining mitigation strategies and withdrawal levels such as seen during the height of the drought will be an essential strategy to prevent water shortages during future extreme drought events. The key mitigation strategy, independent local action to restrict water use in advance of state‐level restrictions, is now prohibited by Georgia State Law.     

The effect of clean energy regulations and incentives on green jobs: panel analysis of the United States, 1998–2007

‘Green jobs’ are often presented as a simultaneous solution for the economic downturn and the environmental crisis, particularly as they relate to sustainable development in energy and climate change. Federal, state, and municipal authorities have employed a variety of policy tools to boost job creation within their jurisdictions. This study focuses on the role that state policies play in creating green jobs. It examines two generic policy tools – regulations and incentives – each of which can be aimed at advancing energy efficiency or renewable energy production, and assesses the relative impact they have had on generating green jobs. In order to measure this impact, we utilize panel data compiled by the Pew Charitable Trusts, which contain a state‐level count of green jobs from 1998 to 2007. The results of the analysis suggest that regulations, particularly those that mandate action on renewable energy, are likely to increase the number of private sector green jobs in states. Regulations with clear guidelines and targets tend to reduce uncertainty in business, and can lead to increased private sector investment and job availability. This study provides practical lessons regarding the type and design of policy instruments and regulations on renewable energy, which effectively encourage green job growth.     

The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

Estimating the Economic Value of National Parks with Count Data Models Using On-Site,Secondary Data: The Case of the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve

We estimate an individual travel cost model for Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve (GSD) in Colorado using on-site, secondary data. The purpose of the on-site survey was to help the National Park Service better understand the visitors of GSD; it was not intended for a travel cost model. Variables such as travel cost and income were estimated based on respondents’ Zip Codes. Following approaches found in the literature, a negative binomial model corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification fit the data the best. We estimate a recreational benefit of U.S. $89/visitor/year or U.S. $54/visitor/24-h recreational day (in 2002 U.S. $). Based on the approach presented here, there are other data sets for national parks, preserves, and battlefields where travel cost models could be estimated and used to support National Park Service management decisions.