考虑“水—土—能—碳”关联的我国工农业碳排放效率及减排潜力研究

考虑“水—土—能—碳”关联,本文将水土资源要素纳入投入变量,构建了我国工农业碳排放效率投入产出测度指标,运用考虑非期望产出的SBM-undesirable模型计算我国29个省份2004—2017年农业、工业部门碳排放效率,利用乘法逆转法计算碳减排潜力并对影响碳排放的投入产出因素进行分析。结果表明：研究期内我国整体农业、工业碳排放效率均呈波动下降趋势,各年的农业碳排放效率均高于工业碳排放效率,江苏、山东等7省份农业碳排放效率以及北京、天津工业碳排放效率最优;各省份农业、工业减排潜力和规模具有显著差异,山西、甘肃的农业、工业碳减排均具有较大潜力;我国绝大多数省份均存在农业、工业的资源能源投入冗余和非期望产出冗余,土地资源投入过剩是影响农业碳排放效率的最重要因素,水资源投入过剩是影响工业碳排放效率的最重要因素。碳排放效率较低省份应积极开展技术创新,发展低碳技术,提高水土资源和能源利用效率,减少碳排放。     

福建省经济系统物质流分析研究

运用物质流分析(MFA)方法,对福建省经济系统在1990~2008年间的物质输入与输出进行系统地分析,探讨了福建省经济发展与环境压力的关系。研究结果表明,福建省"资源高投入"的粗放型经济发展模式没有实现根本转变。主要结论有:(1)福建省物质输入量不断上升,能源需求急剧增长;(2)隐藏流不断增加,矿产资源地生态包袱不断增大;(3)区域过程排放缓慢上升,大气污染物排放为主要推动因子;(4)物质需求强度有反弹趋势,经济发展与物质需求出现扩张性"复钩"。最后,对福建省经济可持续发展提出了大力提高资源能源利用率、推进循环经济发展、优化产业结构、继续强化环境综合整治等建议。     

Understanding the anthropogenic phosphorus pathway with substance flow analysis at the city level

Excessive input of phosphorus into natural water bodies as a result of anthropogenic processes is an escalating factor that leads to eutrophication. Hence, quantifying the pathway of phosphorus throughout the socioeconomic system is essential for the selection of appropriate measures to mitigate phosphorus discharge. The study develops an analytical model of anthropogenic phosphorus flows within a socioeconomic system based on substance flow analysis. The model consists of five major subsystems: the phosphorous chemical industry, agriculture, animal feeding, human consumption, and waste management. The results show that the total input and output of phosphorus in Chaohu City over 2008 are 8517.70 ton (t) and 4682.76 t, respectively. The estimation of phosphorus discharged into local surface water is 544.22 t, which primarily comes from agriculture (391.99 t, 72.03%), followed by large-scale farming (55.70 t, 10.23%), rural consumption (56.81 t, 10.44%), urban consumption (30.42 t, 5.59%), and waste management (9.30 t, 1.71%). Intensive input of fertilizers in agricultural practices was identified as the most important source of phosphorus load on local surface water. Hence, we propose that the eutrophication of local water bodies could be addressed by optimizing local industrial structure, developing ecological and organic-based agriculture, and improving waste collection and disposal practices.     

基于能值分析的城市生态效率研究——以南京市为例

本文采用能值分析和数据包络分析方法,构建了城市物质代谢生态效率的度量模型,从代谢流量和生态效率两个角度评价了南京市生态经济系统1990～2010年间的可持续发展情况。结果表明：（1）21年来,南京地区的能值产出率和可持续指标不断降低,环境负载率呈持续增长趋势;（2）南京城市系统生态效率总体呈波动上升趋势,1990～2006年间资源生态效率一直低于环境生态效率,2006年后开始有所提升。虽然南京市生态效率有所提高,但未来的发展面临快速增长的环境压力等阻碍。为此,南京应优化进口能值组成,加大可更新资源开发力度,提高不可更新资源利用率,实现废弃物资源化等。     

Industrial metabolism of PVC in China: A dynamic material flow analysis

In China, the rapid development of the polyvinylchloride (PVC) industry will inevitably lead to various environmental problems. This paper studies the PVC metabolism further by (1) constructing dynamic models based on material flow analysis (MFA), (2) introducing calculation on detailed lifetime distribution of different types of products and recycling, and (3) obtaining the performances of waste emissions and accumulation as a function of raw material input and time. Based on system evolution theory and population development models, the developing trend of the PVC industry is studied, and annual consumptions in future years are predicted. The annual emission and accumulation after metabolism can be calculated by tracking the amount of raw material input, existing form and process flow for a single year (2003), as well as over a longer period (from 1958 to 2048) in China. Analysis indicates that over 0.6 billion tons of PVC waste will have accumulated in the environment by the end of 2050. In this scenario analysis, the effects of product structure, lifetime distribution, mechanical recycling, chemical recycling and incineration on waste output are all taken into consideration. The product metabolism process can be decelerated by changing these factors appropriately. However, mechanical recycling and chemical recycling are the most effective solutions.     

Downward shortwave radiation estimation and spatial assessment on sites over complex terrain applying integrative approach of MTCLIM-XL,interpolation, RS and GIS

Downward shortwave radiation (DSR) is a highly variable solar source on spatiotemporal basis and essential for energy and agriculture systems, while its calculations are helpful in the environment-related studies, climatology, and monitoring fire risk. Statistical methods developed to extrapolate values of climatic variables and radiation could fail to generate reliable findings of DSR over a complex terrain without considering local topographic factors. In the present study, we proposed an integrative approach of MTCLIM-XL extrapolation with remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) to estimate real-time DSR and its spatial potential over surfaces of contrasting elevated sites on a mountainous terrain of Quetta (Pakistan).Based on methodological approach, remote sensing data product of high-resolution DEM (SRTM 30m) was processed to extract topographic data, and meteorological data were obtained from a base site, Subsequently, MTCLIM-XL executed the simulation to calculate the daily-based DSR (W/m²).Spatial distribution of DSR was generated by applying deterministic interpolation with complementing quantification of Hillshade analysis for spatially obstructive surfaces, and resultant spatial hotspot-based potential was assessed on basis of specified threshold level (above 250 W/m² = 2 kW h/m²) over the specified area. We observed usable potential of DSR at target sites and its spatial distribution during the study period of 2015 to April 2016. Using EUMETSAT CMSAF data as a standard, the validation demonstrates agreeable results of low RMSE and high correlation coefficient values for selected sites, except some sites with relatively high elevations and irregular gradients. Analysis of solar zenith angle to evaluate its inverse relation with increment in DSR values shows agreeable high inverse relation, while the negative trend for only some sites features relatively high rugged topography. In conclusion, MTCLIM-XL with RS and GIS integration manifests as a reliable approach for estimation and spatial potential assessment-based exploration of DSR over complex terrain having no ground data, while prospectively it will complement to the environment-related studies on local to mesoscale.     

OUTPUT AND INVESTMENT FRONTIERS OF UNITED STATES IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Economic models sometimes indicate that irrigation water is misallocated in agriculture, especially when it appears that the marginal value product is higher in other uses (such as for hydro-power). Historically, trends tend to contradict this reasoning, however, especially since irrigation has grown from 20 million acres in 1940 to over 50 million acres in 1980. Results of this study tend to indicate that as agriculture becomes more and more intensive (in terms of inputs), irrigation is part of that long term trend. Further, major economic variables, such as output and investments in agriculture, appear to be more highly correlated with irrigated land than with dryland agriculture. Recent data indicate an upper limit of about 320 million acres for dryland farming in the United States, while no such constraint is apparent for irrigated agriculture.     

Feeding fossil fuels to the soil: An analysis of energy embedded and technological learning in the fertilizer industry

In this paper, we assess energy demand due to fertilizer consumption in the period 1961–2001. Based on historical trends of gross energy requirements, we calculated that in 2001, global energy embedded in fertilizer consumption amounted to 3660 PJ, which represents about 1% of the global energy demand. Total energy demand has increased at an average rate of 3.8% p.a. Drivers behind the trend are rising fertilizer consumption and a shift towards more energy intensive fertilizers. Our results show that despite significant energy efficiency improvements in fertilizer manufacture (with exception of phosphate fertilizer in the last 20 years) improvements in energy efficiency have not been sufficient to offset growing energy demand due to rising fertilizer consumption. Furthermore, we found that specific energy consumption of ammonia and urea developed in close concordance with the learning curve model, showing progress ratios of 71% for ammonia production and 88% for urea. This suggests an alternative approach for including technological change in energy intensive industries in middle and long-term models dealing with energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, while few learning curves exist for energy efficiency of end use technologies.     

Use of Streamflow Data to Estimate Base Flow/Ground‐Water Recharge For Wisconsin1

Abstract: The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow‐gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base‐flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970‐99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow‐gaging stations that had long‐term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple‐regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low‐flow partial‐record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base‐flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins.     

Changes in peak flow with decreased forestry practices: analysis using watershed runoff data

The prevalence of forestry practices such as thinning and pruning have gradually decreased since the 1980s. Researchers have noted an increased flood risk with decreased forestry practices for coniferous plantations in Japan on the basis of infiltration and overland flow measurements at a plot scale (typically several square meters). However, no studies have examined changes in peak flow with decreased forestry practices at a watershed scale (typically several tens or hundreds of square kilometers) even though flood disasters generally occur at this scale in Japan. We examined changes in frequency distributions of daily precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) during the period 1979-2007 at the Terauchi watershed, where forestry practices are known to have decreased. For this purpose, we divided P and Q data into 14 and 15 classes according to the magnitude, respectively, and examined changes in the frequency for each class during the period. We observed no significant increasing trend for any P or Q class. Even when taking into account the effect of interannual variations in precipitation on the frequency for each Q class, there was no significant increasing trend in the frequencies except for two Q classes with moderate Q values. These results suggest that the increase in flood risk due to decreased forestry practices might be less than expected.     

A COMPARISON OF HAND- AND SPLINE-DRAWN PRECIPITATION MAPS FOR MOUNTAINOUS MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Average annual precipitation for the period 1961–1990 was estimated for a mountainous region in Montana with a Laplacian thin-plate spline (ANUSPLIN) and compared to a hand-drawn map. Input data included latitude, longitude, and elevation from a three-arc-second U.S. Geological Survey Digital Elevation Model of the Bozeman and Billings 1 × 2 topographic quadrangles and precipitation data at 96 stations. The two maps are similar in appearance. Digital comparison of the two maps with ARC/INFO's Grid tools shows that mean annual precipitation for the hand-contoured map is 22.9 inches and for the ANUSPLIN map is 23.7 inches. Of the 5,760,000 cells, 53 percent showed no difference between ANUSPLIN and hand-drawn maps; 19 percent showed a two-inch difference, and 28 percent showed more than 2 inches difference. Input data and model output at the same location are not different (standard deviation 1.77, p-value 0.76). Hand-drawn maps show two inches more precipitation during the 1961–90 period than during the 1941–1970 period. Similarly, measured data at 73 sites for the period 1961–1990 are on average 2.4 inches higher than the same stations during the 1941–1970 period. The difference is significant (p-value > 0.0001).     

Use of stream chemistry for monitoring acidic deposition effects in the Adirondack region of New York

Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) and pH were measured weekly from October 1991 through September 2001 in three streams in the western Adirondack Mountain region of New York to identify trends in stream chemistry that might be related to changes in acidic deposition. A decreasing trend in atmospheric deposition of SO4/2- was observed within the region over the 10-yr period, although most of the decrease occurred between 1991 and 1995. Both ANC and pH were inversely related to flow in all streams; therefore, a trend analysis was conducted on (i) the measured values of ANC and pH and (ii) the residuals of the concentration-discharge relations. In Buck Creek, ANC increased significantly (p < 0.05) over the 10 yr, but the residuals of ANC showed no trend (p > 0.10). In Bald Mountain Brook, ANC and residuals of ANC increased significantly (p < 0.01), although the trend was diatonic-a distinct decrease from 1991 to 1996 was followed by a distinct increase from 1996 to 2001. In Fly Pond outlet, ANC and residuals of ANC increased over the study period (p < 0.01), although the trend of the residuals resulted largely from an abrupt increase in 1997. In general, the trends observed in the three streams are similar to results presented for Adirondack lakes in a previous study, and are consistent with the declining trend in atmospheric deposition for this region, although the observed trends in ANC and pH in streams could not be directly attributed to the trends in acidic deposition.     

R&D prospects in the mining and metals industry

The mining and metals industry is considered more-or-less technology mature as it spends less than 1% of its revenues on R&D. In the period 2003-2008, that sector saw a very significant increase in profitability. Yet, during the same period, mining and metals companies continued to trim R&D spending, a trend that started in the early 1980s. In the near future the mining and metals industry will face significant challenges including an increased demand from the developing world counterbalanced by an overall trend to lower ore grades and with high pressure to reduce energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. To overcome these challenges, the mining and metals industry will likely face the need to considerably increase its R&D efforts. As the world enters a period of economic uncertainty, the sector will need to revise its approach towards R&D, reconsider its position against collaborative research with academia and other institutions, and be more creative when it comes to R&D funding.     

An empirical investigation of returns to scale: The Welsh coal industry

This article attempts to study both returns to scale and optimal size of production. Specifically, the authors estimate a ray-homothetic production function which allows the returns to scale to vary with ouput size and input mix. The production model is estimated using data from the Welsh coal industry for the period 1961–1976. Findings showed that, first, the Welsh coal industry suffers from a level of production which is either too small or below its optimal level and, second, this discrepancy between actual and optimal production worsened over the period considered.     

The energy,water, and air pollution implications of tapping China's shale gas reserves

China has laid out an ambitious strategy for developing its vast shale gas reserves. This study developed an input–output based hybrid life-cycle inventory model to estimate the energy use, water consumption, and air emissions implications of shale gas infrastructure development in China over the period 2013–2020, including well drilling and operation, land rig and fracturing fleet manufacture, and pipeline construction. Multiple scenarios were analyzed based on different combinations of well development rates, well productivities, and success rates. Results suggest that 700–5100 petajoules (PJ) of primary energy will be required for shale gas infrastructure development, while the net primary energy yield of shale gas production over 2013–2020 was estimated at 1650–7150 PJ, suggesting a favorable energy balance. Associated emissions of CO₂e were estimated at 80–580 million metric tons, and were primarily attributable to coal-fired electricity generation, fugitive methane, and flaring of methane during shale gas processing and transmission. Direct water consumption was estimated at 20–720 million metric tons. The largest sources of energy use and emissions for infrastructure development were the metals, mining, non-metal mineral products, and power sectors, which should be the focus of energy efficiency initiatives to reduce the impacts of shale gas infrastructure development moving forward.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON RIVERS: CONSEQUENCES FOR LONG TERM WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Associations between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern and temporal variability in flow and 12 water quality variables were assessed at 77 river sites throughout New Zealand over a 13‐year period (1989 through 2001). Trends in water quality were determined for the same period. All 13 variables showed statistically significant linear regression relationships with values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The strongest relationships were for water temperature (mean R²= 0.20), dissolved reactive phosphorus (0.18), and oxidized nitrogen (0.17). The association with SOI varied by climate region. The observed patterns were generally consistent with known ENSO effects on New Zealand rainfall and air temperature. Trends in water quality variables for the periods 1989 through 1993, 1994 through 1998, and 1989 through 1998 were reasonably consistent with trends in SOI, even when the influence of river flow was removed from the data. This suggests that SOI effects on water quality are not necessarily a direct consequence of changes in flow associated with rainfall variation. In addition, both Baseline (32 upstream) and Impact (45 downstream) sites showed similar trends, indicating that changes in management were not directly responsible. We conclude that interpretation of long term water quality datasets in rivers requires that climate variability be fully acknowledged and dealt with explicitly in trend analyses.     

Effects of Urbanization on Flow Duration and Stream Flashiness: A Case Study of Puget Sound Streams,Western Washington,USA

The overall influence of urbanization on how flows of different frequency might change over time, while important in hydrologic design, remains imprecisely known. In this study, we investigate the effects of urbanization on flow duration curves (FDCs) and flow variability through a case study of eight watersheds that underwent different amounts of growth, in the Puget Sound region in Western Washington State, United States. We computed annual FDCs from flow records spanning 1960‐2010 and, after accounting for the effects of precipitation, we conducted statistical trend analyses on flow metrics to quantify how key FDC percentiles changed with time in response to urbanization. In the urban watersheds, the entire FDC tended to increase in magnitude of flow, especially the 95th‐99th percentile of the daily mean flow series, which increased by an average of 43%. Stream flashiness in urban watersheds was found to increase by an average of 70%. The increases in FDC magnitude and flashiness in urbanizing watersheds are most likely a result of increasing watershed imperviousness and altered hydrologic routing. Rural watersheds were found to have decreasing FDC magnitude over the same time period, which is possibly due to anthropogenic extractions of groundwater, and increasing stream flashiness, which is likely a result of reductions in base flow and increasing precipitation intensity and variability.     

A disaggregated emissions inventory for Taiwan with uses in hybrid input‐output life cycle analysis (IO‐LCA)

This paper reports on a life‐cycle analysis (LCA) of Taiwan's “agriculture and forestry”, “crude petroleum, coal and natural gas extraction” and “electricity generation” sectors, revealing for the first time Taiwan's CO₂ and CH₄ emissions inventories and matching Taiwan's input‐output sectors. Integrated hybrid input‐output life cycle analysis is used to disaggregate the electricity generation sector into nuclear, hydro, gas, oil and coal, and cogeneration. Results show that the fossil‐fuel‐related electricity sub‐sectors have higher CO₂ emissions intensity than the remaining sectors in the economy and that the “paddy rice” sector is Taiwan's most CH₄‐intensive sector, making rice cultivation an important source of CH₄ emissions. This work is vital to sound policy decisions concerning power generation, coal, and agriculture and forestry at the national level.     

Irrigation-Dependent Wetlands Versus Instream Flow Enhancement: Economics of Water Transfers from Agriculture to Wildlife Uses

Irrigated agriculture throughout western North America faces increasing pressure to transfer water to nonagricultural uses, including instream flows for fish and wildlife management. In an important case, increased instream flows are needed in Nebraskas Platte River for recovery of threatened and endangered fish and wildlife species. Irrigated agriculture in the Laramie Basin of southeast Wyoming is a potential water source for the effort to enhance instream flow. However, flood irrigation of hayfields in the Laramie Basin has created many wetlands, both ephemeral and permanent, over the last century. Attempting to increase Platte River instream flows by purchasing water rights or improving irrigation efficiency in the Laramie Basin would transform irrigated agriculture, causing a substantial fraction of the Laramie Basins wetlands to be lost. A creative solution is needed to prevent the sacrifice of one ecosystem on behalf of another. A rotating short-term water-leasing program is proposed. The program allows Laramie Basin producers to contribute to instream flows while continuing to support local wetlands. Permanent wetland desiccation is prevented and regional environmental water needs are met without impairing local ecological resources. Budget analysis is used to provide an initial cost estimate for acquiring water from agriculture through the short-term leasing program. The proposed approach is more expensive than traditional programs but allows contribution to instream flows without major wetland loss. Short-term leasing is a more efficient approach if benefits from wetlands exceed the difference in cost between the short-term lease program and programs that do not conserve wetlands.     

Crop Protection Between Sciences, Ethics and Societies: From Quick-Fix Ideal to Multiple Partial Solutions

Crop protection has a very long history during which new methods have been developed whilst, at the same time, the older ones have retained their usefulness in certain conditions. The diversity of agricultural land and production has meant that it was futile to search for a unique and definitive approach or technical solution and, instead, the central concept has always been one of integration, during all the period of pre-Green Revolution and again today within what we call a sustainable agriculture. On a global level, it would seem that the current situation does not fundamentally contradict this idea. Nevertheless, in recent years (since the Second World War), two important advances, presented as the definitive solutions to problems and potentially exceeding previously less effective ones, have led to this integrative approach being questioned. These are agrochemistry and agro-genetics. We will detail, here, the agro-environmental limits of these two “miracle solutions,” followed by a review from an ethical and an epistemological point of view. This enables us to demonstrate the relevance of integrated approaches in agriculture and leads to a definition of crop protection that forms part of a strong approach in sustainable development. By changing the semantics, the epistemic position and our vision of production, we arrive at the proposal of sustainable agriculture.