重大突发地质灾害应急处置的基本问题

地质灾害应急处置是地质灾害应急响应的中心环节，是针对地质灾害险情或灾情采取的紧急减灾行动。工作实施体现为6个“快”，即“快调查、快监测、快定性、快论证、快决策和快实施”。作者结合十多年的工作经验，在理论上界定了地质灾害应急处置各阶段要解决的关键问题，同时提出了执行应急任务的科技人员应具备政策法规、科学理论、技术方法、工作程序和社会人文等方面的知识。最后，简单介绍了特大型滑坡险情应急处置（Ⅰ级响应）和大型黄土崩滑地质灾害应急处置（Ⅱ级响应）的有关实例。     

长江三峡库区链子崖T8~T12缝段危岩体变形监测

岩崩滑坡地质灾害变形监测工作贯穿防治工程实施前、中、后各阶段,是反馈防治施工设计、指导施工与检验工程防治效果的重要手段。以长江三峡库区链子崖危岩体T8~T12缝险段变形监测为例,简述链子崖危岩体监测系统,变形监测成果表明危岩体变形监测系统在防治工程中发挥了十分重要的作用:链子崖T8~T12缝险段危岩体呈现不均匀蠕动变形,实施治理非常必要;治理工程实施中底部煤层采空区承重阻滑工程施工扰动了危岩体,加速危岩体的变形,为及时调整施工顺序、控制施工进度提供了依据;治理工程结束后危岩体变形在误差范围内,渐趋稳定,表明治理效果明显。     

茂县“6·24”特大高位远程崩滑灾害遥感回溯与应急调查

崩滑灾害在中国广大山区易发且危害严重,针对高位远程崩滑隐患难发现、易忽视的问题,结合其常见发育机理与滑塌后岩土体运动特征,发展了基于高分辨率遥感影像的判识与评估方法,并应用国产高分系列(GF)卫星影像,在茂县"6·24"特大崩滑灾害应急中进行实证。以遥感回溯的方式,查明灾前隐患上部裂缝发育特征及前缘地表形变迹象,并综合推断隐患岩体中部"锁固段"性状与应力方向;解译得到灾害滑塌、流动、刮铲、堆积和冲击的运动分段,发现1处新成的崩滑隐患,经体积估算与灾损评估,得出此次灾害总方量约1.41×107m3,受灾建筑面积约2.1×104m2,损毁耕地近30 hm2。遥感回溯与应急调查结果表明,高分辨率影像判识与评估方法可以有效解析高位崩滑隐患及灾害运动特征,可为大范围内同类隐患排查和灾害调查提供方法参考与范例,并促进GF等高分辨率光学卫星的地质灾害应用。     

雅砻江流域地质灾害分布特征及其影响因素分析

雅砻江流域地处青藏高原东南部,地形变化急剧,山高坡陡,谷深流急,地质构造复杂,新构造运动强烈,生态环境脆弱.加之,近年来人类工程活动加剧,使得流域内地质灾害频繁发生,日趋严重.通过对雅砻江流域地质灾害的考察和最新地质灾害信息的分析,归纳了地质灾害分布特征;对流域内地质灾害发育的主要影响因素进行了较为系统的分析,特别是对崩滑灾害体结构和基岩斜坡结构进行了综合分析研究,对水在地质灾害中的作用引入了岩土层水理性质的分析;论述了影响灾害发生的各因素之间的关系,初步认识了雅砻江流域的地质灾害成因机制.     

云南鲁甸6.5级地震次生特大地质灾害的特征及原因

鲁甸6.5级地震造成特别重大灾害,所产生的次生地质灾害也达到了特大型。经过全面排查分析,地震次生地质灾害表现出6项特征:低震级大灾害、沿发震断裂密集分布、顺峡谷带状延展、近场地灾严重、散裂岩土体地灾高发、工程边坡崩滑多。形成这些特征的原因主要有以下几点:高原斜坡地带,活动断裂密集发育,地震能量沿断裂释放顺走向延伸远、垂直影响窄;峡谷纵横,谷坡陡峻,散裂岩体厚大,地质灾害易发,崩滑规模巨大;近场地震地面运动加速度大,震害强烈,向外延伸加速度值衰减较快,远场震害轻微;人类工程切坡、毁坏森林对地震次生地质灾害的产生有明显的影响。地震次生地质灾害应急排查主要应在近场区逐村排查,远场区采取有报再查的方式。     

陕西韩城市地质灾害空间分布规律与防治

实地调查表明,韩城市地质灾害分布具有明显的空间规律,以韩城断裂为东、西区域的分界线,东部黄土台塬区以黄土崩、滑为主,西部低山区则地裂缝和地面塌陷十分发育;研究认为,韩城市地质灾害具有某种集中发育的特征,在成因上除了与降雨量有明显正相关关系外,西部区域主要决定于人类的采矿活动,东部区域则受控于自然地质因素;不同成因的地质灾害其防治措施是不一样的,西部以工程治理为主,东部则以生物防治为主.     

震后斜坡崩滑土体分块差异稳定性计算方法∗

九寨沟“8·8”地震后发育大量的土质斜坡崩滑灾害,这一类型的崩滑斜坡坡体较为破碎,厚度较小。传统的传递系数法计算模型应用于这类崩滑斜坡稳定性计算时,存在将边坡整体计算及不能反映局部崩滑稳定性的问题。将崩滑斜坡破碎程度分为:极度破碎、高度破碎、中度破碎、轻度破碎以及不破碎,基于传递系数法,考虑了坡体的 5种破碎程度,对滑坡稳定性系数以及推力大小计算模型进行改进。并以九寨沟县热西寨老电站对面崩滑为例,对比了两种计算方法的结果。结果表明:分块差异稳定性计算模型比传统计算方法得出来的数值更符合实际情况,即分块法计算每个滑块稳定性存在差异,有的在极端工况下处于欠稳定,有的处于不稳定状态。基于分块法差异计算结果,得出了崩滑斜坡的分块防治模式。     

三峡库区地质灾害灾情评估系统设计与实现

针对目前三峡库区防灾减灾及灾情信息评估的工作情况和所存在的问题,利用ArcGIS Server,Flex和.Net等相关技术,探索和设计了灾情评估系统的总体架构与灾情评估模块。同时,结合三峡库区的防灾减灾相关情况,实现了基于Flex与ArcGIS Server的三峡库区地质灾害灾情评估系统,并对该系统的模块功能、关键技术等进行了详细的分析与讨论。通过对该系统的研究应用,灾情评估人员能够有效地对大面积范围所发生的地质灾害进行监测、分析,并提高对区域地质灾害灾后评估工作和人员调度工作的效率,可供防灾减灾与时空灾情数据库的建立参考。     

2013年北川聚落空间的地质灾害灾情分析

北川羌族自治县是2008年汶川8.0级地震的极重灾区之一。2013年7月8-12日,北川县境内普降暴雨,引起地质灾害事件大面积爆发。洪灾之后的灾情普查数据表明,县域内共有1 318个居民点受到各类地质灾害的威胁,这些地质灾害点的类型多样、分布广泛并且所造成的危害严重。根据灾情普查数据,按乡镇单元提取了各自的灾害点数量、受威胁面积、受威胁户数、受威胁人数、受威胁财产以及防治费用等6个指标,采用主成分分析方法来进行地质灾害灾情的综合评价,根据各乡镇的综合得分对乡镇的灾情进行了排序。这个评价结果较好地反映了各乡镇之间的灾情差异,也为上一级政府进行诸如制定乡镇社会经济发展指标、决定防灾减灾资金及技术力量的投向等行政决策提供了直接依据。     

蠕变—样条联合模型及其在滑坡时间预报中的应用

根据滑坡演化的一般规律并考虑到外动力因素对斜坡变形破坏的影响，提出了一种蠕变与样条的联合模型。通过新滩滑坡和链子崖危岩体的实例分析，采用蠕变－样条联合模型进行滑坡位移数据分析和临滑时间预报。     

A retrospective statistical review of deaths owing to migration through the southeasternmost land borders of the European Union,Greece 2000–14

The land borders of Evros, Greece, have been a common entry point for undocumented migrants on their way to Europe through Turkey. Adverse conditions, however, have resulted in many human casualties over the years. On the Greek side, 334 cadavers were retrieved between 2000 and 2014. This study provides a detailed forensic account of the humanitarian disaster in Evros to create an official scientific record of the situation. It showcases the gravity of the global issue of migration relating to health and mortality, and encourages communication and continual improvement of the approach and patterns of practices surrounding the subject. A retrospective statistical research review was conducted of border‐related fatalities between 2000 and 2014, assessing the age and gender of victims, the cause of death, the location of bodies, identification rates, and country of origin. Age ranged generally from 24 to 29 years, but infants and children were among the deceased.     

Looking beyond food aid to livelihoods, protection and partnerships: strategies for WFP in the Darfur states

The humanitarian crisis in Darfur remains extremely serious. The optimism that followed the signing of the Abuja Peace Accord was followed by a rapid deterioration in security on the ground in part associated with increasing factionalism in various rebel movements. This paper briefly reviews the evolution of the crisis, its impact on lives and livelihoods and the response by the World Food Programme (WFP) to June 2006. The major challenges and issues facing the food aid programme in the previous 18 months included: dealing with insecurity while maintaining or even extending programme outreach; the need to link protection with assistance more explicitly; and determining the wider impact of food aid programming on the processes and institutions linked with the conflict. The paper discusses the main strategic issues facing WFP in the future such as: integrating security and protection with needs assessments and operational decisions, broadening response strategies beyond food aid and bringing livelihoods to the fore, the need to review cost-efficiency, promoting partnerships and strengthening national and regional capacities.     

98‘嫩江,松花江流域特大洪水灾害及其对黑龙江省社会经济的影响

根据对１９９８年嫩江、松花江特大洪水的详细调查资料,分析了洪水形成过程和特点。并阐述了洪涝灾害对主要受灾区黑龙江省的国民经济和粮食生产、工业交通、水利设施和人民生活等方面的影响。     

Waiting for the flood: technocratic time and impending disaster in the Himalayas

A landslide occurred in the region of Zanskar in the Indian Himalayas in 2015, damming the Tsarap River, creating a lake that effectively became a ticking time bomb, threatening villagers downstream. During the period between the discovery of the natural dam and the bursting of the lake, the state's approach to disaster management plunged the local population into a situation where ‘technocratic time’ ruled, as government experts handled the impending disaster at a rhythm dictated by the production of studies and reports. Analysis of the temporality of disaster mitigation and preparedness measures during this anticipated flood, as well as of the factors that surrounded the events, reveals how attitudes towards the state shaped people's perceptions of these interventions. In Zanskar, the technocratic pace and the state's lack of transparency were seen as a form of oppression that further marginalised the region, in particular by subjecting its population to the process of waiting.     

Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May-June 1985

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty-eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.
The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.     

Emotions and beliefs after a disaster: a comparative analysis of Haiti and Indonesia

A number of studies have examined emotional and belief responses following a disaster, yet there has been limited comparative analysis of responses to disasters in different places. This paper reviews the results of 366 questionnaires that evaluated key emotional and belief concepts in Haiti after the earthquake on 12 January 2010 (n=212) and in Indonesia after the earthquake in Yogyakarta on 27 May 2006 (n=154). The results indicate significant differences between the responses in the two settings, particularly in relation to feelings of impunity, self‐blame for the disaster, regret about pre‐earthquake behaviour, and a sense of justice in the world. Furthermore, the impacts of age, education, and gender on responses also were different in the two case study sites. Overall, the results suggest that understanding the cultural, religious, and social contexts of different disaster locales is important in comprehending the emotions and beliefs that manifest themselves in the wake of a major disaster.     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。     

Does money work? Cash transfers to ex-combatants in disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration processes

This paper analyses the relevance and potential of cash transfers as part of the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) assistance packages provided to ex-combatants in transitions from war to peace. To this end, a theoretical framework is established that permits the identification of the advantages and disadvantages of using cash in DDR. Subsequently, an empirical analysis is carried out to compare selected theoretical assumptions on the use of cash with the reality of lessons learned from recent experience in Sierra Leone and other African countries. The study shows that some theoretical drawbacks commonly associated with the use of cash in DDR processes may indeed bear out in practice. At the same time, though, the paper argues that the utility of cash transfers in DDR is affected by a variety of factors that go far beyond the simple choice of employing cash, most notably decisions on payment location, eligibility criteria and targeting.     

Emergency centers in Israel: A small community organizes to cope with war related crises*

This paper focuses on community-wide emergencies caused by war-related events in Lebanon at the beginning of June 1982. Mobilization for the "Peace for Galilee" campaign began on Friday, 4th June. Overnight, families were disrupted, husbands and sons were in danger, and within 24 hours there were notifications of casualities and deaths. Families in crisis became a widespread phenomenon. In Herzlia, as in many other communities, a new service - the Emergency Center - emerged under the auspices of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and the Municipality. The authors describe this process of getting organized, the populations served, how the Center was staffed, the role of citizen volunteers, and the types of interventions used to help vulnerable families as well as soldiers home on leave. Stress is placed on the unique type of short-term co-operation achieved between social workers of the local Department of Social Welfare, the staff of the Department of Community Services (especially its Volunteer Bureau), the local liason officer of the Israel Defence Force, the municipal government, and public-spirited volunteers. Mention is made of conditions which made possible the activation of such a service within hours, of the Center's capacity to serve all segments of the population, and of how it was deactivated within a few weeks when the emergency ended. On the basis of lessons learned from this experience, the paper ends with a number of specific recommendations. The authors hope that such innovative forms of crisis-intervention will become part of the helping technology widely available at the community level in future years.     

Drought,social agents and the construction of discourse in Andalusia

Despite the severity of the last droughts in Spain, there has not been any significant shift in the current planning strategies, due to a significant resistance to abandoning traditional practices against this hydrological risk. To better understand the origin of this resistance, the changing role of the relevant stakeholders in the debate and the key issues, this paper is aimed at undertaking a discursive analysis of the information conveyed by the media in hydrological years 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, through the application of the software Atlas.ti.