Urban vulnerability and displacement: a review of current issues

Urban displacement is frequently portrayed as a new and unfamiliar dilemma for the humanitarian sector, yet broad awareness of its characteristics and challenges has been developing since the 1970s. In the past decade, however, there has been greater attention to, and recognition of, the implications of rapid urbanisation in the developing world. This has led to some policy development and a mounting body of NGO (non-governmental organisation) and think-tank literature on the topic. Assuming displacement to be a key lens on urban vulnerability more broadly, this paper presents an overview of the historical development of debates on urban displacement since the 1970s. Drawing examples from the contributions in this special issue of Disasters, as well as from other sources of information on recent humanitarian responses in various contexts, it assesses the ramifications of urban vulnerability for humanitarian practitioners. The paper contends that the humanitarian sector has failed to galvanise on the issue, and has struggled therefore to employ existing knowledge and to adapt practice.     

When information becomes action: drivers of individuals' trust in broadcast versus peer‐to‐peer information in disaster response

Information and communications technology (ICT), primarily mobile telephones and social media, is increasingly important in crisis and disaster response in developing countries. This fact raises an important question: in an information environment that includes traditional media such as radio and television, who are the people that trust information from ICT enough to act on it during a disaster? Drawing on a case study of and original survey data from the island nation of the Independent State of Samoa, this paper yields insights into who uses new technologies, particularly mobile telephones, to make decisions at the local level during crises such as natural disasters, as well as the socio‐political factors that motivate their behaviour. The results add to the growing pool of knowledge on utilisation of ICT and new technologies in developing countries for disaster response, and provide practical information on the social and political factors that lead people to trust different information sources and media.     

华北地区冬小麦干旱时空分布特征

根据作物气候指标距平,利用经验正交函数和小波分析方法,研究了华北地区冬小麦干旱的空间分布和时间演变特征。研究结果表明,主要有3种空间分布类型:以中西部为中心的全区一致型;西北、东南相反分布型,其正值中心分布在北京、霸州等区域,负值中心分布在济南、淄川、临沂等区域;东、西相反分布型,其正值中心分布在河北省东北部的唐山、秦皇岛和山东省的烟台、福山、海阳为等区域,负值中心分布在河北省的邢台、石家庄以及河南省的安阳和新乡等区域;3种空间分布型时间系数变化趋势都表明,20世纪90年代以后华北地区冬小麦干旱呈加重的趋势。     

New policy directions in disaster preparedness and response in ethiopia

Following the fall of the government of Mengistu Haile Mariam in May 1991, the Transitional Government of Ethiopia has initiated new policy directions in relation to national disaster preparedness and response. Drawing on the lessons learnt from more than a decade's experience of famine and famine relief work in the north of the country, policies are emerging from the reconstituted Relief and Rehabilitation Commission that represent a new agenda for the conduct of assistance programs. These changes have important implications for the relationship between the Transitional Government, international aid organizations and local communities.     

Filtration of Lignin from a Lignocellulose-Based Ethanol Pilot Plant

Abstract An increasing demand for bio-based vehicle fuels and impending harsher regulations of CO2 emissions are driving the development of a second generation of ethanol fuel processes. These processes will increase yields and make new feedstocks available, as they are designed to handle lignocellulosic materials such as wood. In order to achieve a sound financial economy of such a process, as well as an acceptable degree of energy efficiency, it is of the utmost importance that the lignin produced has a high dry content. An experimental study was conducted on lignin slurry from a pilot plant in the north of Sweden, in which the lignin slurry was filtered, pressed, and characterized. The dewatering was evaluated with the classical filtration equation by determining the average specific filtration resistance of the filter cakes. Compared with previous work, relatively low values of the specific filtration resistance were obtained. It is probable that the low values were an effect of the high amount of cel...     

粗糙集理论在震害预测中的应用

知识约简是粗糙集理论的核心问题。首次尝试将这一概念用于建筑物震害预测工作中，结合震害预测工作的实际，提出了一种基于属性重要性的近似相对约简算法，并通过实例验证了其可行性。所述研究具有理论和现实意义，对今后进行有关抗震防灾工作具有很好的应用价值，并为开展震害预测工作提供了新的研究思路和手段。     

气候条件对中国水稻稻飞虱为害规律的影响

稻飞虱除了在海南、广东、广西、二南南部冬季有少量虫源存活外，在中国其它大部分地区常年均不能越冬，春秋季初始虫源主要来自于国外。越南是中国稻飞虱的主要初始虫源地，中国稻飞虱直接来自越南红河三角洲，而最初的虫源地为泪公河三角洲。入境后的稻飞虱每年均出现有规律的５次由南向北和３次由北向南的迁飞过程。暖冬使越南等境外或中国稻飞虱越冬区的稻飞虱迁入期提前，为害期延长．中国稻飞虱发生较重的年份大多出现在３—５月副高较强的年份．厄尔尼诺年的次年中国稻飞虱有可能严重发生。     

安徽地区地震活动趋势分析

安徽地区地震活动周期表将公元２８８ 年以来Ｍ≥４ ．０ 地震活动划分为与华北二至七周期相对应的六个地震周期,每周期分为与华北相似的初震段、前震段、主震段和余震段四个地震段。安徽地震周期超前于华北地震周期,每周期４ 级以上地震从皖渐交界一带的皖东南地区开始活动,各阶段最大地震震中由南向北迁移。第七周期４ 级以上地震活动至１９７９ 年固镇５ 级地震已结束,未来将进入第八周期初震段。近几年皖东南地区的广德县或旌德县可能发生４－３ 级左右地震。     

论西安次级地裂缝

根据地震勘探结果，提出了西安地裂带由一条主地裂缝和一条规模较大的次级地裂缝组成。次缝位于主缝上盘，具有北倾北降的正断裂性质，并与主缝断裂呈“丫”字型构造，在深度300～500m处的第四系内与主缝汇合。在地表，次缝与主缝之间的距离多在50～120m，其间的地面呈陷落微地貌。地震勘探剖面上的次缝与主缝之间地层比较紊乱，似乎还有更小规模的裂缝构造，构成主缝到次缝间的断裂破碎带。对次缝的成因从区域构造应力场和自重应力场两方面给予了解释，并得到了以前的模拟试验结果和次缝出露地表情况的验证。据地面调查资料，凡次缝活动发育地段，其北侧主缝的活动相对较弱，甚至地表出露不明显。     

宁夏北部电网供电瓶颈问题研究

针对宁夏北部电网未来几年存在的供电瓶颈问题,按照提高地区供电能力、优化区域网架结构的思路,通过电力系统模拟计算,提出将750 kV电压等级引入北部地区、将宁东地区电源以220 kV电压等级接入北部电网负荷中心和补强月牙湖变电站主变压器及相关送电通道3种解决方案,并对方案进行比较。结果表明:方案1将750 kV电压等级引入北部地区能够为北部电网提供可靠的电源支撑,可从根本上解决北部电网近远期电力供需矛盾问题。     

内蒙古自治区地质灾害及防治

内蒙古自治区地处我国北部边疆,区内地貌类型多样,地质环境条件较为复杂,自然因素和人为活动诱发了大量的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害,严重危及了人类生存的环境,在一定程度上制约了自治区的经济建设与发展。在收集已有资料的基础上,经过分析总结,归纳出自治区地质灾害的种类、分布范围及危害程度。同时依据地质灾害专项调查成果,在综合考虑地形地貌、岩土体类型等地质环境背景条件的基础上,采用比拟法,对全区的地质灾害进行了灾害易发区划分,并针对内蒙古地质灾害状况与分布,提出了防治的基本指导思想和原则。最后,依据地质灾害易发程度分区,按照“以人为本”的原则,结合国土资源的重要性,划分出重点防治区,提出了相应的防治对策。     

Training Community Health Workers in refugee camps: A case study from Pakistan

In October 1983 a training programme for refugee community health workers was begun as the major part of a primary health care programme for Afghan refugees in Pakistan. The programme began with a pilot period in Badaber camp, situated near to Peshawar. The general issues involved in training auxiliary health personnel were answered by the use of a "knowledge, attitudes and practices survey" and involvement of the refugees from the beginning of the programme. The development of the training programme is discussed with reference to these issues and the constraints arising from the special circumstances of the refugees, in addition to those common to most national training programmes, are reviewed.     

自然灾害综合研究的回顾与展望

回顾了20世纪90年代以来,我国在自然灾害综合研究方面所做的工作和取得的成果以及所获得的新认识,包括将研究由单类推向综合。提出自然灾害系统和灾害科学体系的新观念,探索自然灾害综合预报,加强灾害社会属性的研究;提出分区减灾、分级减灾的对策,倡导开展减灾系统工程,将减灾纳入可持续发展系列建立减灾管理系统,推动减灾社会化与产业化等。对21世纪自然灾害综合研究进行了展望,认为其基本指导思想应为从自然灾害系统研究扩展为环境-灾害系统研究。同时提出了减灾能力评估、综合区划、灾后重建统筹规划等所面临的重大问题。     

河南省春季降水与温度变化的时空分布——基于地理信息系统的分析

春季的气候条件异常一直是制约河南省小麦生产的瓶颈之一,春旱作为河南省主要的气象灾害,严重影响了小麦的生长。近几十年来,极端天气事件随着全球气候变暖的加快而越发频繁。春季干旱发生的主要因子降水和温度的变异性显著变大。基于GIS及和河南省30年的气候整编资料,对河南省春季降水、温度及降水温度比的变化趋势及时空变化分布进行了研究。结果表明:豫南春季降水减少最为严重(南阳盆地除外),豫中次之,豫北春季降水稍有增加;从温度的变化分布来看,河南全省春季温度都呈上升趋势,其中,豫南的信阳、驻马店,豫西北的济源、焦作、洛阳、郑州及平顶山地区温度上升趋势较大,南阳盆地、豫东平原及豫北平原地带温度变化相对较小;反应春季气候异常的降水温度比豫南为负向变化最大,豫北为正向变化最大,空间分布与春季降水基本吻合。综合分析说明未来河南地区的气候变化将会更加不稳定。     

基于自然正交展开的神经网络长期预报模型

对月降水量的前期500hPa高度场、海温场相关预报因子进行E0F展开，并取其中与预报量相关程度较高的主成分，结合人工神经网络技术，建立了一种新的短期气候预测模型。将这种新的预报模型与同样根据这些预报因子建立的回归预报模型进行了对比分析。结果表明，这种新的短期气候预测模型由于集中了众多预报因子的预报信息，并有效地利用了神经网络方法的非线性映射能力，因此比传统预报方法的预报精度显著提高，并且稳定性好，具有很好的应用前景。     

黑龙江省夏季干旱气候特征及成因分析

利用1954-2009年气候实测资料,分析了黑龙江省干旱发生的气候特征。结果表明,20世纪70年代与21世纪初的近10年为干旱盛行时期,尤其是2000年后至今,平均每2年发生一次干旱。大部分年份的干旱发生在拉尼娜事件或赤道东太平洋为冷水位相,副高较弱及偏东和北界偏北。从500hPa环流特点表明,东亚区盛行-、+、-距平场型式;冷空气偏向乌拉尔北部泰米尔至新地岛,黑龙江处在西风带高脊或高脊与副高结合体控制之下,维持高温少雨造成干旱。选取副高强、厄尔尼诺发生的年份的干旱典型年2004年。恰与过去年份发生的低温多雨形势相反,盛行-、+、-距平场型式,造成干旱。从旱年的水汽输送环境来看,来自欧亚大陆40°～50°N与孟加拉弯和南海的水汽输送通道,明显减弱或消失。     

茅山地区垂直形变网的改造和监测能力

本文对茅山地区垂直形变网按照最优化原则进行的改造工作进行了论证,并探讨了如何提取地形变信息的问题。     

近50年中国旱灾的时空变化

采用省级报刊信息源 ,建立了中国旱灾数据库 ,运用数字地图技术 ,重建了 194 9～ 2 0 0 0年中国旱灾的时空格局。研究表明 :全国旱灾空间格局总体呈东西分异 ,重旱灾区域在北方 ,并相对集中分布在黑龙江西部、内蒙古中部、河北北部、陕西北部和宁夏 ;在南方主要分布在中部 5省 (安徽、湖北、湖南、江西和河南 )及四川东部、贵州和云南中东部。全国旱灾的范围有向西部扩展的趋势。全国旱灾动态变化趋向总体呈现南北分异。长江以北地区为旱灾灾次增多区 ;长江以南地区为旱灾普遍减少区或变化不明显区。     

Official sources,news outlets,or search engines? Rumour validation on social media during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

This study, based on data collected from a representative sample of adults in the United States, explores the social cognitive variables that motivated Americans to validate rumours on social media about Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, both of which struck in August/September 2017. The results indicate that risk perception and negative emotions are positively related to systematic processing of relevant risk information, and that systematic processing is significantly related to rumour validation through search engines such as Google. In contrast, trust in information about the hurricane is significantly related to validation through official sources, such as FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), and major news outlets such as The New York Times. Trust in information is also significantly related to systematic processing of risk information. The findings of this study suggest that ordinary citizens may be motivated to validate rumours on social media, which is an increasingly important issue in contemporary societies.     

Media and bushfires: A community perspective of the media during the Grampians Fires 2006

This paper examines the ways residents in the Grampians area in the Australian state of Victoria used their local and their state and national based media before, during and after the 2006 bushfires (wildfires). The researchers were particularly concerned to understand how residents evaluated media sources as trustworthy and credible in relation to bushfire warnings and information about the fires delivered in the media.Analysis of data derived from two separate focus group sessions conducted by the researchers reveals four main themes. (1) The media are perceived as part of a broader information gathering process. (2) Local knowledge is the most important aspect in broadcast information. (3) Members of small communities can feel disenfranchised and resentful of the media when media coverage focuses on larger towns, and (4) the effects of media reporting, including specific warnings, are both immediate and long lasting.The paper explores some of the tensions that result from the ways rural residents use and distinguish between local/regional and metropolitan and out-of-state bushfire information; and it encourages better use of the local/regional media to increase community safety and awareness in relation to bushfire mitigation, preparedness and crisis management issues before, during and after the fires. It is suggested that risk communications professionals need to understand that when mediated risk-related communications are provided, a key evaluative criterion is whether or not those media and the messages represent and reflect local knowledge.