Mainstreaming climate change adaptation at the local level

National authorities in many countries aim at having climate change adaptation mainstreamed into existing policy domains in order to achieve coherence and synergies, and to avoid mal-adaptation. Because of local variations in climate change impacts, the lion's share of climate adaptation work will have to take place at the local level. This means also that the mainstreaming process needs to occur locally. This article examines the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into existing sectors in five Norwegian municipalities. Applying theories of mainstreaming and policy integration we find that policy development is slower, but perhaps more robust in the municipalities that have chosen a horizontal, cross-sectoral approach to mainstreaming than in the municipalities that have chosen a vertical sector approach to mainstreaming.     

Quantifying sources of climate uncertainty to inform risk analysis for climate change decision-making

Quantitative estimates of future climate change and its various impacts are often based on complex climate models which incorporate a number of physical processes. As these models continue to become more sophisticated, it is commonly assumed that the latest generation of climate models will provide us with better estimates of climate change. Here, we quantify the uncertainty in future climate change projections using two multi-model ensembles of climate model simulations and divide it into different components: internal, scenario and model. The contributions of these sources of uncertainty changes as a function of variable, temporal and spatial scale and especially lead time in the future. In the new models, uncertainty intervals for each of the components have increased. For temperature, importance of scenario uncertainty is the largest over low latitudes and increases nonlinearly after the mid-century. It has a small importance for precipitation simulations on all time scales, which hampers estimating the effect which any mitigation efforts might have. In line with current state-of-the-art adaptation approaches, we argue that despite these uncertainties climate models can provide useful information to support adaptation decision-making. Moreover, adaptation decisions should not be postponed in the hope that future improved scientific understanding will result in more accurate predictions of future climate change. Such simulations might not become available. On the contrary, while planning adaptation initiatives, a rational framework for decision-making under uncertainty should be employed. We suggest that there is an urgent need for continued development and use of improved risk analysis methods for climate change adaptation.     

Tradeable permits and the comprehensive approach to climate change

The need to constrain the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has led to a growing interest in efficient ways of achieving it. Many analysts have argued for the advantages of tradeable emission permits. Others have pointed to the importance of addressing all sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. However, this 'comprehensive approach' at present appears incompatible with the use of tradeable permits, because few sources and sinks can be monitored with the accuracy required for such a system. It is not enough to make rough approximations, because inadequate monitoring and revision of approximations could disrupt the whole system. The best approach is to start by developing an efficient control system for the major sources which can be adequately monitored - primarily fossil-fuel CO₂ - and by ensuring that other sources and sinks may be introduced over time. This can be achieved by starting with a system of overlapping permits which focuses upon the major quantifiable sources (notably fossil CO₂), and introduces revisions as permits are retired and reissued.     

Managing natural resources in the light of climate variability

Natural resource management is central to global efforts to reduce poverty and environmental degradation, and is one of the principal ways in which countries are seeking to advance sustainable development and the implementation of Agenda 21. But these efforts to advance natural resource management are strongly impacted by climate and by seasonal and inter–annual climate variability.
This article aims to further advance understanding of the relationship between natural resource management and climate variability, with particular attention to ways in which natural resource managers at every level — from the household to the national and international levels — can cope more effectively with such variability. In particular, the article provides an overview of the way in which efforts to manage natural resources to reduce poverty and environmental degradation are impacted by natural climate variability. It examines what natural resource managers are doing to cope with these challenges, and discusses the kinds of new approaches and partnerships that are needed to improve their capacity to cope more effectively with climate variability. In doing so, the article touches on the implications of future climate changes for natural resource managers and the way in which their efforts to cope more effectively with climate variability will provide opportunities to gain experience in identifying and adjusting responses to longer–term climate change.     

Exploring the autonomous adaptation strategies to climate change and climate variability in selected villages in the rural northern savannah zone of Ghana

Evidence abounds attesting to changes in the global climate. In Ghana, climate change and climate variability have brought several exposure-sensitivities on different people and at different times. Due to the multiplicity of climate change and climate variability effects, adaptation strategies invariably could be influenced by several factors. This paper assesses the adoption of adaptation strategies in the rural northern savannah zone of Ghana as a result of climate change and variability. Using two villages each from Savelugu Nanton, West Mamprusi and Kassena Nankana East Districts, which are slightly different as case studies, the paper unearthed panoply of varied adaptation strategies in each of them including intensification of irrigation; integration of livestock production; changes in tillage practices; fertiliser application on farms; shift from agriculture to non-farm jobs; seasonal migration and purchase of drought insurance for maize. The results indicate that the relativity in adoption and utilisation of the different adaptive strategies are interlinked with geographical, social, economic, institutional and political factors and processes in the villages. The findings drum home the essentiality of location-specific planned adaptation strategies for climate change through a bottom-up approach, in order to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability.     

Perceptions of climate change on the Island of Providencia

Climate change-related impacts have the capacity to substantially influence Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean. Currently, many SIDS are engaged in large-scale vulnerability assessments that aim to identify, analyse, and inform solutions to mitigate climate change-related impacts. Many of these assessments, while useful, place little emphasis on the local stakeholders' perceptions of climate change. One such Caribbean community impacted by climate-related change is Providence Island in Colombia. Using a vulnerability assessment framework (Marshall, P.A. et al. 2010. A framework for social adaptation to climate change: sustaining tropical coastal communities and industries. Gland: IUCN Publication Services), researchers interviewed island residents (N = 23) about their perceptions of climate change, impacts on the local environment, and how the island community may adapt. All interviews were transcribed and analysed using a priori and open coding to identify patterns of and relationships between stakeholders' responses. Results indicate that local perceptions of climate change are linked to (1) environmental knowledge, (2) environmental awareness, attitudes, and beliefs, and (3) perceptions of risk. Implications for local adaptive strategies, education, communication, and suggestions for engagement at the local level are discussed.     

Cities and the challenge of multiscalar climate justice: climate governance and social equity in Chicago,Birmingham, and Vancouver

The imperative of climate justice has been gaining political and discursive power in international climate negotiations. Yet scholars are just beginning to investigate how climate policies are impacting social equity in practice. This paper contributes concrete examples and a multiscalar analysis to this emerging understanding. As cities are increasingly important players in global climate governance, it examines cases from three cities in the global North that have made notable attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a socially just way: Chicago, Illinois; Birmingham, England; and Vancouver, British Columbia. These cases show that there is significant potential for cities to further global climate justice through emission reductions while enhancing social justice locally. However, they also demonstrate the importance of understanding just carbon mitigation as a multiscalar phenomenon. In each of these cities, leaders’ abilities to mitigate climate change in a just way are shaped by larger processes of changing global markets, political opportunities and constraints, and inconsistent national regulatory environments. To the extent that cities continue to act as important sites of the carbon mitigation necessary to achieve global climate justice, this research highlights the necessity of creating national and global political conditions that enable the implementation of just climate mitigation in urban areas.     

Life cycle climate impacts of the US concrete pavement network

Life cycle assessment (LCA) offers a comprehensive approach to evaluate and improve the environmental impacts of pavements. First, a general pavement LCA methodology is created that describes the concepts necessary to conduct a comprehensive pavement LCA. Second, the methodology is applied to the life cycle of concrete pavements to quantify current emissions across the road network. System boundaries are drawn to include all phases of the pavement life cycle – materials production, construction, use, maintenance, and end of life. Greenhouse gas emissions are quantified for twelve functional units, which evaluate average conditions for each major roadway classification in the United States. The results present the relative contribution of each component in the life cycle, the annual emissions occurring during the 40-year analysis period, and the sensitivity of these results to model parameters. It is found for all roads that the majority of emissions occur in year one – from cradle-to-gate materials production, and pavement construction – primarily due to cement production. The results are most sensitive to traffic volume, and then to parameters affecting the cement production. Based on emissions and their sensitivity, the LCA results suggest three broad reduction approaches: reducing embodied emissions, reducing use phase emissions, and reducing end-of-life emissions.     

Using exploration expenditures to assess the climate for mineral investment

Countries that rely on private investors to find and exploit their mineral resources need reliable indicators of their investment attractiveness. This study explores the use of exploration expenditures for this purpose, focusing primarily on Chile.     

Climate engineering and climate tipping-point scenarios

Many scientists fear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have set the Earth on a path of significant, possibly catastrophic, changes. This includes the possibility of exceeding particular thresholds or tipping points in the climate system. In response, governments have proposed emissions reduction targets, but no agreement has been reached. These facts have led some scientists and economists to suggest research into climate engineering. In this paper, we analyze the potential value of one climate engineering technology family, known as solar radiation management (SRM) to manage the risk of differing tipping-point scenarios. We find that adding SRM to a policy of emissions controls may be able to help manage the risk of climate tipping points and that its potential benefits are large. However, the technology does not exist and important indirect costs (e.g., change in precipitation) are not well understood. Thus, we conclude the SRM merits a serious research effort to better understand its efficiency and safety.     

The investment climate for gold mining

This analysis compares the gold mining industry investment climate in the USA to the investment climate in Australia. These two major gold producing nation's industries share many similarities; in both the USA and Australia, there is evidence of a maturing gold mining industry. Each country has experienced a dramatic increase in gold production and, more recently, greater mining of refractory ore and development of more underground operations. In the 1980s both nations experienced a pronounced rationalization trend that consolidated some gold producing operations and eliminated others. Each country commands a disproportionately large share of exploration expenditures. Land access, a major concern in the USA, has also become a critical issue in Australia as well. For all their similarities, however, the two countries have differences that are significant enough to influence mining company investment decisions. This paper explores those differences and how they may affect the future course of these nations' gold mining industries. Both effective government policy making and corporate strategic planning will occupy a major role in the future course of the two nations' gold mining industries .     

Communication and use of climate scenarios for climate change adaptation in Finland,Sweden and Norway

This paper assesses the communication and the use of climate scenarios at the science–science and science–policy interface in Finland, Sweden and Norway. It is based on document analysis and stakeholder questionnaires. The questionnaires targeted three stakeholder groups, all engaged in the communication and the use of climate scenario information: climate scenario producers; impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) experts; and policy-makers. The respondents were asked to identify issues associated with the communication of scenarios and other needs pertaining to the usefulness and availability of such information. Despite the relatively long history of climate change adaptation in the three countries, climate scenarios are not utilised to their full potential. Climate scenarios have been used in awareness raising, problem understanding and strategy development. However, far less examples can be found on adaptation actions, particularly on harnessing the benefits of climate change. The communication between climate scenario producers and IAV experts functions well; however, communication between climate researchers and policy-makers is less efficient. Each country has developed boundary services to enhance dissemination of the climate scenario information to policy-makers. They are cost-efficient but do not necessarily enhance the comprehension of the information and encourage the actual dialogue between scenario producers and the end-users. Further translation of scenario information to impact and vulnerability estimates together with established boundary work could improve the use of climate research information. As adaptation policy in these countries further progresses towards implementation, there are increasing expectations of support from research, further challenging the communication of climate scenarios.     

Urban water demand and climate change

This paper presents a methodology for improved understanding of options for managing urban water demands under the uncertainties associated with climate change. It combines a sensitivity analysis of water supply with forecasts of water demand and examines how conservation efforts may offset deficits which result from climate change. It presents a case study of Nassau County, New York State, USA, that concludes that deficits projected for warmer climate scenarios can probably be alleviated by increased conservation. For scenarios of decreased precipitation, more extreme measures (eg rationing) may be necessary, illustrating the prudence of considering climate change in planning studies for communities which already experience water supply problems.