Effects of climate and land use changes on groundwater resources in coastal aquifers

To estimate the freshwater loss in coastal aquifers due to salinisation, a numerical model based on the sharp interface assumption has been introduced. The developed methodology will be useful in areas where limited hydrological data are available. This model will elaborate on the changes in fresh groundwater loss with respect to climate change, land use pattern and hydrologic soil condition. The aridity index has been introduced to represent the variations in precipitation and temperature. The interesting finding is that the deforestation leads to increase groundwater recharge in arid areas, because deforestation leads to reduce evapotranspiration even though it favors runoff. The combined climate and land use scenarios show that when the aridity index is less than 60, the agricultural lands give higher groundwater recharge than other land use patterns for all hydrologic soil conditions. The calculated recharge was then used to estimate the freshwater-saltwater interface and percentage of freshwater loss due to salinity intrusion. We found that in arid areas, the fresh groundwater loss increases as the percentage of forest cover increases. The combined effects of deforestation and aridity index on fresh groundwater loss show that deforestation causes an increase in the recharge and existing fresh groundwater resource in areas having low precipitation and high temperature (arid climates).     

The impact of land use and land cover changes on land surface temperature in a karst area of China

Satellite images have been used extensively to study temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in China. However, few studies have been conducted in the karst areas despite the large area and population involved and the fragile ecosystem. In this study, LULC changes were examined in part of Guizhou Province of southern China from 1991 to 2001 based on Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images of November 7, 1991, December 5, 1994, and December 19, 2001. Land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were computed based on LULC types. The results show that agricultural land decreased, while urban areas expanded dramatically, and forest land increased slightly. Barren land increased from 1991 to 1994, and then decreased from 1994 to 2001. These changes in LULC widened the temperature difference between the urban and the rural areas. The change in LST was mainly associated with changes in construction materials in the urban area and in vegetation abundance both in the urban and rural areas. Vegetation had a dual function in the temperatures of different LULC types. While it could ease the warming trend in the urban or built-up areas, it helped to keep other lands warmer in the cold weather. The study also reveals that due to the government's efforts on reforestation, rural ecosystems in some of the study area were being restored. The time required for the karst ecosystem to recover was shorter than previously thought.     

The role of population in understanding Honduran land use patterns

Land use patterns are usually influenced by large variety of factors that act over a broad range of scales. Biophysical, climatic, and socioeconomic factors are important and need to be considered, when distribution of land use is to be understood. The main objective of this study is to test this hypothesis using a statistical analysis at 'supra-local' level. Regression analysis is used to describe land use patterns in Honduras, selected because of its rare combination in Latin America of high population growth and poor biophysical conditions. Furthermore, the aim of the analysis is to specifically highlight two aspects, the effect of spatial and temporal scale and the influence of population density: to determine the influence of spatial and temporal scale, six spatial resolutions at two points in time (1974 and 1993) were included. To determine the role of population density and population growth, this factor was singled out; an analysis of migration patterns was performed; and a measure for technological development was calculated. Multiple regression equations indicate the importance of soil-related, climatic and demographic factors for most of the land uses. Relations appear to be stable in space and time. Rural population density dominates as driver over the whole range of resolutions and for both years, especially for maize where it explains up to 80% of the variation. The strong constant relationship between population and agricultural area could be caused by a lack of technological development. An analysis of yield development confirms that for most annual crops yield increases lag behind area growth. Besides, the strong correlation could be explained by assuming rural population density to be a proxy for a range of other factors, like labour costs, or accessibility that are the direct drivers of land use change. In any case, this study suggests that for a specific--relatively coarse--window of temporal and spatial scale, land use patterns can be described with very simple relationships, with a strong contribution of population density. More local studies are needed to test the hypothesis that rural population density is a proxy for other variables.     

Impacts of urban forests on offsetting carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou,China

This study quantified carbon storage and sequestration by urban forests and carbon emissions from energy consumption by several industrial sources in Hangzhou, China. Carbon (C) storage and sequestration were quantified using urban forest inventory data and by applying volume-derived biomass equations and other models relating net primary productivity (NPP) and mean annual biomass increments. Industrial energy use C emissions were estimated by accounting for fossil fuel use and assigning C emission factors. Total C storage by Hangzhou's urban forests was estimated at 11.74 Tg C, and C storage per hectare was 30.25 t C. Carbon sequestration by urban forests was 1,328, 166.55 t C/year, and C sequestration per ha was 1.66 t C/ha/year. Carbon emissions from industrial energy use in Hangzhou were 7 Tg C/year. Urban forests, through sequestration, annually offset 18.57% of the amount of carbon emitted by industrial enterprises, and store an amount of C equivalent to 1.75 times the amount of annual C emitted by industrial energy uses within the city. Management practices for improving Hangzhou's urban forests function of offsetting C emissions from energy consumption are explored. These results can be used to evaluate the urban forests' role in reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide.     

Exploring changes in Ecuadorian land use for food production and their effects on natural resources

A model is used for the dynamic and spatially explicit exploration of near future agricultural land-use changes. In a case study for Ecuador, different plausible scenarios are formulated, taking into account possible developments in national food demand until the year 2010. The protection of nature parks and restrictions due to land degradation are evaluated with respect to their possible spatial impacts on the land-use change dynamics within the country. Under the assumptions of the demand scenarios, agricultural land-use expands significantly, resulting in more use of land in existing agricultural areas and frontier-type expansion into relatively undisturbed natural areas. The patterns of change depend on the increase in demand, competition between land-use types, changes in driving factors of land use, and the area and characteristics of land that is excluded from agricultural use. The modelled land-use dynamics are related to their possible impacts on the natural resource base, specifically soil fertility. The results indicate potential negative effects of land-use changes on the soil nutrient balance and biodiversity. It is argued that spatial and temporal quantification of land-use dynamics at the landscape level can support research and policies aimed at understanding the driving factors of land-use change and the behaviour of complex agro-ecosystems under changing conditions at different scales. In this way, issues dealing with sustainable food production and the management of the natural resource base can be addressed in a more integrated and quantitative manner.     

Sustainability appraisal in local land‐use planning: patterns of current performance

The UK government has identified the land‐use planning system, and development plans in particular, as potentially powerful instruments for integrating national sustainability objectives into strategic decision making at local levels. One method for achieving this is through the use of so‐called ‘sustainability appraisals’, which are an extension of the established system of environmental appraisal used by planners since the early 1990s. A national framework is outlined in Planning Policy Guidance Note 12. Local authorities are now expected to conduct an environmental appraisal of their development plans which covers sustainable development issues. However, little research has been conducted on the effectiveness of current guidance in meeting this aim. By evaluating the implementation of sustainability appraisals nationally, this paper suggests that while government advice to appraise is generally being applied, the actual use of key sustainability principles in practice is rather variable. It then discusses these findings in relation to the changing context of appraisals in the UK and other national planning systems.     

Mixed land‐use patterns and the development of spatial structure of Nigerian cities

Differences exist in the spatial structure of cities in both the developed and developing world owing to the contradistinctive nature of their urban growth processes. The structure of Nigerian cities is characterised by the preponderance of mixed land uses resulting primarily due to the organic nature of city growth and more fundamentally, owing to the dynamics of informal urban economic activities. This paper examines mixed land‐use patterns in selected Nigerian cities and appraises their relevance in the general city growth process. By suggesting principles and speculative spatial patterns expressing desirable use combinations, an attempt is made to rationalise the utility of the concept such that its environmental impact is understood and given planning resolution.     

Impact of land use and land cover changes on the ambient temperature in a middle scale city, Takamatsu, in Southwest Japan

There is a lack of information on urban heat island impact on the thermal environment due to low populated urban sprawl, although densely populated urban sprawl impact has been identified by several researchers. The Takamatsu area has recently developed in a low populated urban sprawl style without any increase in population. This paper examined the impact of a low populated urban sprawl on the thermal environment through an analysis of the last 30 years data set and investigated the contribution of vegetation fraction and population density to the temperature trend. As a consequence, it was shown that one of the most significant causative factors of temperature increase is an expansion of non-vegetated area even without population growth. This result implied that vegetated zones should be maintained in urban areas in order to realize sustainable urbanization.     

Harvesting and climate effects on organic matter characteristics in British Columbia coastal forests

As part of investigations into the effects of harvesting old-growth forest, we characterized carbon in five organic matter pools in eight forest chronosequences of coastal British Columbia. Each chronosequence comprised stands in four seral stages from regeneration (3-8 yr) to old-growth (>250 yr), with second-growth stands mostly of harvest origin. Stands were located in two biogeoclimatic subzones with contrasting climate (wetter, slightly cooler conditions on the west coast of Vancouver Island than on the east). Carbon concentrations in fine woody debris (FWD), forest floor (LFH), fine roots from LFH, and two water-floatable fractions from 10 to 30 cm mineral soil (MIN-ROOT, 2-8 mm and MIN-FLOAT, <2 mm) showed no significant effects due to climate, seral stage, or site. There were some significant differences in N concentrations, but none related to seral stage. Carbon-13 cross-polarization with magic-angle spinning (CPMAS) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra with principal component analysis of relative areas also showed little harvesting effect, but greater variation related to input of coarse woody debris (CWD) vs. roots high in tannin. Overall, there tended to be more spectral features associated with wood and lignin in the west; whereas some MIN-ROOT samples from the drier east side had aromatic intensity attributed to charcoal. The minimal effects of one harvest on organic matter are most likely due to the large legacy effect; however, more intensive management will probably result in less CWD retention, less charcoal input, and less microsite variability in these pools of poorly decomposed organic matter.     

Sustainability of ground water quality considering land use changes and public health risks

One of the major environmental issues of concern to policy-makers is the increased vulnerability of ground water quality (GWQ). Another issue of equal interest is the sustainability of natural resources for future generations. To understand the sustainability of the natural resources such as water in general, one needs to understand the impact of future land use changes on the natural resources. This work proposes a methodology to address sustainability of GWQ considering land use changes, aquifer vulnerability to multiple contaminants, and public health risks. The methodology was demonstrated for the Sumas-Blaine aquifer in Washington State. The land transformation model predicted that nearly 60 percent of the land use practices would change in the Sumas-Blaine Aquifer by the year 2015. The accuracy of the LTM model predictions increased to greater levels as the spatial resolution was decreased. Aquifer vulnerability analysis was performed for major contaminants using the binary logistic regression (LR) method. The LR model, along with the predicted future land use, was used to estimate the future GWQ using two indices-carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic ground water qualities. Sustainability of GWQ was then analyzed using the concept of 'strong' sustainability. The sustainability map of GWQ showed improvements in many areas where urbanization is expected to occur. The positive impact of urbanization on GWQ is an indication of the extensive damage caused by existing agricultural activities in the study area.     

Understanding large-scale deforestation in southern Jinotega, Nicaragua from 1978 to 1999 through the examination of changes in land use and land cover

Nicaragua, home to the largest remaining extent of rainforest in Central America (total surface area) and to a significant indigenous population, has lost approximately half of its forest cover since 1950. This major and rapid loss of forest cover has been explained as the consequence of an eastward moving agricultural frontier that cuts through the region of Jinotega. If the current deforestation rate continues, the country could lose its remaining forest cover over the course of the next two decades; therefore, it is essential that the dynamics and relationships of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in this region are understood. To examine LUCC in Nicaragua over time, Landsat imagery from the southern portion of the region of Jinotega, taken in 1978, 1987, and 1999 was utilized. A remote-sensing method, supervised classification, which allows for the grouping of spectrally similar values for each year, followed by an image change detection analysis (postclassification comparison) was conducted. Groundtruthing (field validation) was conducted in 2006 to validate the data, which yielded increasing overall accuracy rates of 71.68% for 1978, 82.35% for 1987, and 84.38% for 1999. The classification and change detection results showed that if the agricultural cultivation overtook this region, it happened before 1978. Therefore, the possibility that either deforestation did not actually occur along an agricultural frontier or that it was located further east exists; this would be an interesting subject for future studies. There was, however, clear evidence of increased forest cover from 1987 to 1999 near the urban center, correlating with the enforced reforestation law in the city of Jinotega.     

Preventing land loss in coastal Louisiana: estimates of WTP and WTA

A dichotomous-choice contingent-valuation survey was conducted in the State of Louisiana (USA) to estimate compensating surplus (CS) and equivalent surplus (ES) welfare measures for the prevention of future coastal wetland losses in Louisiana. Valuations were elicited using both willingness to pay (WTP) and willingness to accept compensation (WTA) payment vehicles. Mean CS (WTP) estimates based on a probit model using a Box-Cox specification on income was $825 per household annually, and mean ES (WTA) was estimated at $4444 per household annually. Regression results indicate that the major factors influencing support for land-loss prevention were income (positive, WTP model only), perceived hurricane protection benefits (positive), environmental and recreation protection (positive), distrust of government (negative), age (positive, WTA model only), and race (positive for whites).     

Belief network models of land manager decisions and land use change

A two-stage model of land use change is described, which is driven by the types of decisions that land managers make when changing their broad styles of use. The first stage uses decision modelling techniques to assess if a manager is currently satisfied with the present situation, when compared to various potential alternatives. If this evaluation indicates satisfaction, it is assumed that the present land use will continue. However, if it indicates dissatisfaction, Belief Network techniques are used to estimate, in more detail, both how dissatisfied the manager is and whether the costs of changing, from the present use to a potentially better one, will be out-weighed by the anticipated benefits. The proposed models can use a variety of cost and benefit criteria (e.g. financial, social and ecological). The approach is illustrated with a case-study of the factors that might influence changes from farming to forestry in marginal upland areas of the UK.     

Impacts of changes in water quality on recreation behavior and benefits in Finland

The implementation of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires nationally generalizable estimates of the benefits of protecting inland and coastal waters. As an alternative to benefit transfers and meta-analyses, we utilize national recreation inventory data combined with water quality data to model recreation participation and estimate the benefits of water quality improvements. Using hurdle models, we analyze the association of water clarity in individuals' home municipalities with the three most common water recreation activities – swimming, fishing and boating. The results show no effect on boating, but improved water clarity would increase the frequency of close-to-home swimming and fishing, as well as the number of fishers. Furthermore, to value the potential benefits of the WFD, we estimate the consumer surplus of a water recreation day using a travel cost approach. A water policy scenario with a 1-m improvement in water clarity for both inland and coastal waters indicates that the consumer surplus would increase 6% for swimmers and 15% for fishers. In contrast to previously estimated abatement costs to improve water quality, net benefits could turn out to be positive. Our study is a promising example of applying existing national recreation inventory data to estimate the benefits of water quality improvements for the purposes of the WFD.     

Impacts of land cover on stream hydrology in the West Georgia Piedmont, USA

The southeastern United States is experiencing rapid urban development. Consequently, Georgia's streams are experiencing hydrologic alterations from extensive development and from other land use activities such as livestock grazing and silviculture. A study was performed to assess stream hydrology within 18 watersheds ranging from 500 to 2500 ha. Study streams were first, second, or third order and hydrology was continuously monitored from 29 July 2003 to 23 September 2004 using InSitu pressure transducers. Rating curves between stream stage (i.e., water depth) and discharge were developed for each stream by correlating biweekly discharge measurements and stage data. Dependent variables were calculated from discharge data and placed into 4 categories: flow frequency (i.e., the number of times a predetermined discharge threshold is exceeded), flow magnitude (i.e., maximum and minimum flows), flow duration (i.e., the amount of time discharge was above or below a predetermined threshold), and flow predictability and flashiness. Fine resolution data (i.e., 15-min interval) were also compared to daily discharge data to determine if resolution affected how streams were classified hydrologically. Urban watersheds experienced flashy discharges during storm events, whereas pastoral and forested watersheds showed less flashy hydrographs. Also, in comparison to all other flow variables, flow frequency measures were most strongly correlated to land cover. Furthermore, the stream hydrology was explained similarly with both the 15-min and daily data resolutions.     

The use of computer models in planning upland land use

The British Ecological Society has suggested that computer‐based techniques could be used in the coordination of policies across different land uses in upland planning. This paper looks briefly at one such technique — a linear programming model — and describes its use at a regional scale for the Sedburgh area in north‐west England. The paper concludes with consideration of why such models are not in more common use.     

Environmental impacts of the shelter forests in Horqin Sandy land, northeast China

Assessing environmental effects of shelter forests is primarily necessary for realizing their greatest protective benefits. The Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP), the largest ecological afforestation program in the world, has been operated for three decades in China but so far lacks comprehensive assessment of its environmental impacts. Horqin Sandy Land (HSL) in Northeast China is one of the key areas in the TNSFP implementation. To identify the principal contributors to environmental changes in HSL, we evaluated impacts of variations in landscape features, shelter forest areas, climatic factors, and social factors on changes in sandy land areas from 1978 to 2007, by using Gray Relational Analysis. Our analysis showed that during the period 1978 to 2007, the sandy land area decreased by 3.9% in low aeolian dunes, 14.5% in low mountains and hills, and 98.9% in high elevation alluvial flats of HSL. Factors with Gray Correlation Degrees >0.9 were identified as the patch shape index (PSI) and the landscape isolation index (LII) of grasses in low aeolian dunes, PSI of grasses in mountains and hills, and area of broadleaved forests and LII of shrubs in alluvial flats. It is concluded that establishment of the shelter forests has played a significant role in controlling the expansion of sandy land in HSL. To sustain the long-term environmental benefits of the shelter forests in the remaining period for TNSFP construction, suitable tree species should be selected and planted at appropriate densities based on the local precipitation, groundwater and landform conditions, and the system stability of the total landscape.     

Effect of land use on methane flux from soil

The precise effects of natural and disturbed terrestrial systems on the atmospheric CH4 pool are uncertain. This study was conducted to quantify and compare CH4 fluxes from a variety of ecosystems in central Iowa. We investigated agricultural systems under different management practices, a hardwood forest site, native and restored prairies, and a municipal landfill. Flux measurements were obtained using a closed-chamber method, and measurements were compiled by sampling over the 1993 and 1994 growing seasons. In 1993, most of the agricultural sites were net CH4 producers with cumulative CH4 fluxes ranging from -0.02 to 3.19 g m(-2) over the 258-d sampling season, while the natural ecosystems were net CH4 consumers, with cumulative seasonal fluxes ranging from -0.27 to -0.07 g m-2 258 d(-1). In 1994, only the landfill and the agricultural site treated with broadcast liquid swine manure (LSM) were net CH4 producers, while the remainder of the natural and agricultural ecosystems were net CH4 consumers, with mean seasonal flux rates ranging from -0.43 to -0.008 g m(-2) 271 d(-1). We hypothesize that the differences in CH4 fluxes between the two years are due to differences in rainfall. To illustrate the integration between land use and CH4 flux, we computed an area-weighted soil CH4 flux for the state of Iowa. Our calculations yielded a net average soil CH4 flux of 139,000 Mg CH4 for 1993 and 1994.     

Influence of soil moisture and land use history on denitrification end-products

We investigated the effects of recent moisture history on the relative production of N2O and N2 during denitrification in soil from cropped and successional ecosystems. The soils were pedogenically identical but had been managed differently for the past decade. Sieved soils were amended with nitrate, glucose, and water. Long-wet and short-wet incubations received 80 and 0%, respectively, of prescribed water 2 d before incubation and the rest just before incubation. The N2O and N2 production and N2O mole fraction (N2O/[N2O + N2]) were measured using acetylene inhibition. The N2 production and soil 15N enrichment were measured by 15N-gas evolution. The response of N2O mole fraction to moisture history differed by ecosystem. Mean N2O mole fraction in the successional system was about the same for long-wet and short-wet treatments (0.34 and 0.33, respectively). For the cropped system, however, the N2O mole fraction was 0.36 for the long-wet and 0.90 for the short-wet treatment. Thus, in the cropped system a much smaller proportion of end product was N2O if soil had been wet for 2 d. For N2 fluxes, the isotope method gave the same pattern (r = 0.92) but only about one-third the magnitude, suggesting that N2 derived from two distinct pools. Differences in response of N2O mole fraction for successional and cropped soils may be due to differences in microbial communities. Further knowledge of ecosystem differences with respect to N2O mole fraction and recent moisture history may improve modeled estimates of local and global N2O fluxes.