火灾情况下不同楼层对大学生疏散心理和行为反应影响的研究

火灾情况下不同楼层对大学生疏散心理和行为反应有重要影响.选择住宿的高职学生1141人作被试,采用统计分析法对不同楼层的学生进行问卷后统计分析结果显示:在火灾情景下,学生居住的楼层越高,从众心理越强,从众心理有随着楼层的增高而增强的趋势;楼层较高的学生比楼层较低的学生适应性行为多,会采取灭火行为,能做到就近逃生等;楼层最低的学生比楼层最高的学生能很快的表现出帮助他人脱离火场的能力和行为,但是楼层最高的学生比楼层居中的学生相互救助的意识强;楼层居中的学生比楼层较高的学生存在较强的惊慌心理.     

高危岗位矿工个体风险感知影响因素仿真研究

为探索高危岗位矿工风险感知的影响因素,在文献研究和复杂适应系统理论分析基础上,从个体角度构建矿工风险感知影响因素的系统动力学模型。运用Vensim 软件模拟仿真各工作时间段中,矿工风险感知水平及各因素对其影响的动态演化过程。研究表明:工作初期,情绪稳定性水平对风险感知水平促进效果显著,工作倦怠的抑制作用较突出;在工作后期,自我效能感对风险感知水平的削弱影响显著,风险规避态度则发挥较大的促进作用;风险知识经验超出一定范围会对风险感知水平起到反作用;安全教育培训与安全监管对风险感知水平的促进作用相对稳定持久。因此,煤矿企业应根据各因素在工作时间段的不同作用,采取相应措施以提高矿工风险感知水平。     

Reconstructing human contributions to accidents: the new view on error and performance

PROBLEM: How can human contributions to accidents be reconstructed? Investigators can easily take the position a of retrospective outsider, looking back on a sequence of events that seems to lead to an inevitable outcome, and pointing out where people went wrong. This does not explain much, however, and may not help prevent recurrence. METHOD AND RESULTS: This paper examines how investigators can reconstruct the role that people contribute to accidents in light of what has recently become known as the new view of human error. The commitment of the new view is to move controversial human assessments and actions back into the flow of events of which they were part and which helped bring them forth, to see why assessments and actions made sense to people at the time. The second half of the paper addresses one way in which investigators can begin to reconstruct people's unfolding mindsets. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: In an era where a large portion of accidents are attributed to human error, it is critical to understand why people did what they did, rather than judging them for not doing what we now know they should have done. This paper helps investigators avoid the traps of hindsight by presenting a method with which investigators can begin to see how people's actions and assessments actually made sense at the time.     

Views of US drivers about driving safety

Problem: To assess how drivers view dangers on the highway, what motivates them to drive safely, how they say they reduce their crash and injury risk, and how they rate their own driving skills. Results: Most drivers rated their skills as better than average. The biggest motivating factor for safe driving was concern for safety of others in their vehicle, followed by negative outcomes such as being in a crash, increased insurance costs, and fines. The greatest threats to their safety were thought to be other drivers' actions that increase crash risk such as alcohol impairment or running red lights. In terms of reducing crashes and injuries, drivers tended to focus on actions they could take such as driving defensively or using seat belts. There was less recognition of the role of vehicles and vehicle features in crash or injury prevention. Impact on research, practice, and policy: Knowing how drivers view themselves and others, their concerns, and their motivations and techniques for staying out of trouble on the roads provides insight into the difficulty of changing driving practices.     

突发公共事件信息解读机制的社会学分析

有效的危机管理是建立在公共安全预警决策分析机制的充分准备基础之上的，结合我国公共安全预警决策分析机制的要求，必须开展公共安全系统模型研究和风险预测研究；建立突发公共事件预警应急与对策分析系统；发挥Avaya应急呼叫中心集成解决方案作用；重视依靠专家力量把握平战结合的信息管理。     

On risk governance deficits

The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) has recently presented a report comprising an analysis and illustration of the most common deficits in risk governance. The work covers issues related to both assessments and management of risk. In this paper we take a closer look into this report. We acknowledge the work as an important contribution to the risk governance field, how risk decision-makers and practitioners in government and industry can improve the risk governance, but we also point to some weaknesses in the analysis, which are critical for the understanding and use of the IRGC document. Most of these relate to the understanding of fundamental ideas and phenomena, in particular risk and uncertainty. The rationale for several defined deficits is questioned, including “missing, ignoring or exaggerating early signals of risk” and “failure of managers to respond and take action when risk assessors have determined from early signals that a risk is emerging”. Simple examples are used to illustrate the problems and show how they can be rectified.     

Training trade unionists in ergonomics: Interaction between public policies, trade union practices and the development of research

For a number of years now, enterprises have become increasingly interested in training in the area of health and safety at work. Even though trade unionists and managers see different advantages in such training, they share the same willingness to reduce occupational injuries. Even if demand for training is sometimes limited on purpose (all that is expected of it is to pass on recipes enabling work to be continued without getting hurt), training in safety and health is a privileged point of contact between researchers and trade unionists. But the contact between these two groups of actors in the process of changing working conditions does not happen without raising a number of questions: that of reciprocal mental images of each other, for instance, something which will condition the ways in which their knowledge meets; or the issue of the target groups of training: all the workers or just the delegates representing the workers in cooperation bodies? Other fundamental questions relate to the context in which training takes place: what type of training should take pride of place? What is the role of the expert in this approach? And how should the expert's knowledge be linked in with that of the workers?     

Human reliability analysis: A critique and review for managers

In running our increasingly complex business systems, formal risk analyses and risk management techniques are becoming more important part to managers: all managers, not just those charged with risk management. It is also becoming apparent that human behaviour is often a root or significant contributing cause of system failure. This latter observation is not novel; for more than 30 years it has been recognised that the role of human operations in safety critical systems is so important that they should be explicitly modelled as part of the risk assessment of plant operations. This has led to the development of a range of methods under the general heading of human reliability analysis (HRA) to account for the effects of human error in risk and reliability analysis. The modelling approaches used in HRA, however, tend to be focussed on easily describable sequential, generally low-level tasks, which are not the main source of systemic errors. Moreover, they focus on errors rather than the effects of all forms of human behaviour. In this paper we review and discuss HRA methodologies, arguing that there is a need for considerable further research and development before they meet the needs of modern risk and reliability analyses and are able to provide managers with the guidance they need to manage complex systems safely. We provide some suggestions for how work in this area should develop. But above all we seek to make the management community fully aware of assumptions implicit in human reliability analysis and its limitations.     

跨区域应急协作视角下化工园区空间布局的失衡与应对策略分析

随着工业化进程加快,我国化工园区呈现出数量逐年递增且集中分布的态势,增加了跨区域重大突发事件的风险,如何实现跨区域的应急协作成为化工园区安全规划所面临的重点与难点问题之一。基于此,搜集近15 a全国化工园区的安全事故,采用自组织特征映射神经网络分类方法与多元回归模型研究全国范围内化工园区安全事故的空间分布规律及影响因素,进而从风险分布与应急协作需求的匹配性角度讨论我国现有应急协作机制存在的潜在问题。研究结果表明:我国化工园区整体空间布局呈现出以区域优势为导向的趋势,其选址大多忽略了化工园区集中区域的高风险与应急能力不足的问题,这种布局的失衡使得政府无法形成高效的跨区域应急协作体制;化工园区数量上的增加并非是导致危机事故的主要原因,强调了化工园区自身特征与危机事故严重程度的相关性,区域间应急联动协作在化工园区危机应对过程中的重要作用;最后,从空间布局、跨区域协作角度提出化工园区区域应急协作的相应政策建议。     

应急管理信息系统总体架构探讨

随着政府对于应急管理工作的重视，如何建设应急管理信息系统是摆在应急管理者面前急需解决的一个问题。本文首先分析了应急信息的来源，然后建立了应急管理信息系统的架构，并全面阐述了应急信息系统的各个功能组成，最后对应急信息系统的体系构成进行了分析。本文有助于各级政府建立应急管理系统，为应急体系建设打下基础。     

Organizational safety: which management practices are most effective in reducing employee injury rates?

PROBLEM: While several management practices have been cited as important components of safety programs, how much does each incrementally contribute to injury reduction? This study examined the degree to which six management practices frequently included in safety programs (management commitment, rewards, communication and feedback, selection, training, and participation) contributed to a safe work environment for hospital employees. METHOD: Participants were solicited via telephone to participate in a research study concerning hospital risk management. Sixty-two hospitals provided data concerning management practices and employee injuries. RESULTS: Overall, the management practices reliably predicted injury rates. A factor analysis performed on the management practices scale resulted in the development of six factor scales. A multiple regression performed on these factor scales found that proactive practices reliably predicted injury rates. Remedial measures acted as a suppressor variable. DISCUSSION: While most of the participating hospitals implemented reactive practices (fixing problems once they have occurred), what differentiated the hospitals with low injury rates was that they also employed proactive measures to prevent accidents. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The most effective step that hospitals can take is in the front-end hiring and training of new personnel. They should also ensure that the risk management position has a management-level classification. This study also demonstrated that training in itself is not adequate.     

Whether power holders construe their power as responsibility or opportunity influences their tendency to take advice from others

Empirical evidence suggests that power elicits a generic tendency to disregard advice. We examined different responses power holders may show in their tendency to take advice depending on the construal of power. We report a field study and an experiment among managers and other powerful professionals (Studies 1 and 2) and an experiment in which participants were assigned to a powerful role (Study 3). Across studies, we found a higher tendency to take advice among those who construed their power as a responsibility rather than as an opportunity. This effect of the construal of power on advice taking was mediated by a heightened perceived value of advice, not by decreased confidence in own judgments or sense of power. Accordingly, the increase in advice taking when power was construed as a responsibility was observed regardless of whether the advice came from subordinates (Study 1), expert advisors (Study 2), or a less powerful teammate (Study 3). This highlights the relevance of considering how power holders construe their power in order to understand their tendency to take advice from others. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Congruence work in stigmatized occupations: A managerial lens on employee fit with dirty work

Although research has established that it is often difficult for individuals engaged in dirty work to adjust to stigma and the attributes giving rise to stigma, little theory or empirical work addresses how managers may help workers adjust to dirty work. Interviews with managers across 18 dirty work occupations—physically tainted (e.g., animal control), socially tainted (e.g., corrections), and morally tainted (e.g., exotic entertainment)—indicate that managers engage in “congruence work”: behaviors, sensemaking, and sensegiving that they perceive as helping individuals adjust and develop a stronger sense of person–environment fit. Specifically, congruence work focuses on 3 phases of managerial practices that correspond to individuals' growing experience in the occupation. First, recruitment/selection involves overcoming individuals' aversion to dirty work by selecting individuals with an affinity for the work and providing a realistic stigma preview. Second, socialization involves helping newcomers adjust to distasteful tasks and to stigma by using targeted divestiture, developing perspective taking, helping newcomers manage external relationships, and utilizing desensitization or immersion. Third, ongoing management roles involve cementing individuals' fit by fostering social validation, protecting workers from dirty work hazards, and negotiating the frontstage/backstage boundary. The practices identified as congruence work highlight the important role that managers can play in facilitating adjustment for both “dirty workers” and presumably their less stigmatized counterparts.     

基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

Older Adults at Increased Risk as Pedestrians in Victoria,Australia: An Examination of Crash Characteristics and Injury Outcomes

Objectives: Engaging in active transport modes (especially walking) is a healthy and environmentally friendly alternative to driving and may be particularly beneficial for older adults. However, older adults are a vulnerable group: they are at higher risk of injury compared with younger adults, mainly due to frailty and may be at increased risk of collision due to the effects of age on sensory, cognitive, and motor abilities. Moreover, our population is aging, and there is a trend for the current cohort of older adults to maintain mobility later in life compared with previous cohorts. Though these trends have serious implications for transport policy and safety, little is known about the contributing factors and injury outcomes of pedestrian collision. Further, previous research generally considers the older population as a homogeneous group and rarely considers the increased risks associated with continued ageing.

Method: Collision characteristics and injury outcomes for 2 subgroups of older pedestrians (65–74 years and 75+ years) were examined by extracting data from the state police–reported crash dataset and hospital admission/emergency department presentation data over the 10-year period between 2003 and 2012. Variables identified for analysis included pedestrian characteristics (age, gender, activity, etc.), crash location and type, injury characteristics and severity, and duration of hospital stay. A spatial analysis of crash locations was also undertaken to identify collision clusters and the contribution of environmental features on collision and injury risk.

Results: Adults over 65 years were involved in 21% of all pedestrian collisions. A high fatality rate was found among older adults, particularly for those aged 75 years and older: this group had 3.2 deaths per 100,000 population, compared to a rate of 1.3 for 65- to 74-year-olds and 0.7 for adults below 65 years of age. Older pedestrian injuries were most likely to occur while crossing the carriageway; they were also more likely to be injured in parking lots, at driveway intersections, and on sidewalks compared to younger cohorts. Spatial analyses revealed older pedestrian crash clusters on arterial roads in urban shopping precincts. Significantly higher rates of hospital admissions were found for pedestrians over the age of 75 years and for abdominal, head, and neck injuries; conversely, older adults were underrepresented in emergency department presentations (mainly lower and upper extremity injuries), suggesting an increased severity associated with older pedestrian injuries. Average length of hospital stay also increased with increasing age.

Conclusion: This analysis revealed age differences in collision risk and injury outcomes among older adults and that aggregate analysis of older pedestrians can distort the significance of risk factors associated with older pedestrian injuries. These findings have implications that extend to the development of engineering, behavioral, and enforcement countermeasures to address the problems faced by the oldest pedestrians and reduce collision risk and improve injury outcomes.     

突发疫情冲击下的中国安全文化

非典型肺炎在中国的传播 ,给中国的政治、经济和文化带来了不同程度的影响。笔者重点分析了“非典”疫情对我国安全文化的冲击 ,尽管安全文化在中国得到很快的发展 ,由于没有得到大力普及 ,以致类似“非典”等大型危害公共安全事件到来之时 ,还需要一段时间才能适应 ;首次分析了安全文化和危机管理之间的内在联系 ,安全文化和危机管理相互促进 ,共同发展 ,共同起作用 ;指出在国内应大力普及安全文化的宣传和教育 ,提高全民的安全意识和自我保护意识 ;创造适应新时代发展的新安全文化 ,建设我国安全文化大厦 ,是我国今后安全文化工作的重要任务。     

浅谈应急心理干预对事故影响的作用

随着大工业的发展，其所带来的重大事故或自然灾害导致的事故后果常常可以和战争相提并论，其后果影响给与人们带来的心理恐慌和应急时产生的心理危机已经影响人们的正常生活，并逐渐被人们重视。因此心理危机干预已经逐渐成为抢险救灾的一个当然的组成部分，心理干预技术已经是成熟的，在国际上已经普遍被采用。当突发事故发生或当遇到突发事件伤害时，克服紧张情绪，沉着冷静并学会如何与人沟通，解决各种应急事件导致的心理障碍是非常重要的任务。     

突发事件系统优化管理

首先对突发事件类型及要素进行了分析,认为突发事件是由孕育环境、突发事件、社会冲击场三者组成,其最大属性是作用时间的快慢和空间影响范围的大小;其次,对突发事件管理进行探讨,认为突发事件管理涉及致灾因子、社会承灾体、以及监测和预报评估等多方面,对这些方面进行优化设计,可以提高整个突发事件管理系统日常运行和应急效率.     

化学恐怖袭击事件的危害、征兆及紧急应对措施研究

在介绍化学恐怖活动的特点、化学毒剂的种类和对人体的危害的基础上,从怎样察觉判断化学毒剂的存在、发生化学恐怖袭击事件后的紧急应对措施、在不同公共场合发生恐怖袭击事件后的自救逃生等几个方面进行了研讨,提出利用化学恐怖袭击的征兆通过感官法、生物法与化学侦检法判断是否发生化学恐怖袭击,分析总结化学恐怖袭击发生时的紧急应对程序,以及遇袭人员出现染毒病症后的"一戴二隔三救出"及"六早"现场医学应急救援措施,并给出地铁、机场、学校、商场、高层建筑、体育馆、大型会展场馆等公共场所发生化学恐怖袭击事件时的自救逃生指引。     

Dynamic risk assessment of oil spill scenario for Three Gorges Reservoir in China based on numerical simulation

A novel method for dynamic risk assessment of oil spill accidents based on numerical simulation was presented in this paper. The dynamic risk assessment model was developed consisting of a comprehensive list of caused consequences like environmental damage, asset loss, health impact and social effect as well as emergency actions preventing these losses. Contributing events in the Mater Logic Diagram (MLD) of the dynamic risk assessment model were valued based on the simulated evolvement of oil contaminants under spill scenario on quasi-static fluid, which was obtained by coupling an oil spill model with hydrodynamic module in Jialing river of Three Gorges Reservoir in China after the impoundment of the reservoir to 175 m water level in 2010. Calculated result of dynamic risk as grade IV indicated that the assessed oil spill was not as catastrophic as we thought because of the slow transport of oil fractions on water surface and absence of dispersed oil in water body due to the quasi-static fluid, very gentle wind and effective emergency actions, as well as by the reason that rare agriculture or industrial crops exist in spill adjacent area.