The roles of computer models in the environmental policy life cycle

In this article, we identify four typical roles played by computer models in environmental policy-making, and explore the relationship of these roles to different stages of policy development over time. The four different roles are: models as eye-openers, models as arguments in dissent, models as vehicles in creating consensus and models for management. A general environmental policy life cycle is used to assess the different roles models play in the policy process. The relationship between the roles of models and the different stages of the policy life cycle is explored with a selection of published accounts of computer models and their use in environmental policy-making.     

水污染预警DSS系统框架下的白河水质预警模型研究

为了应对频发的水环境污染事故,在污染事故发生后快速有效地制定应急响应措施,保护水环境,有必要在水源保护区建立水污染预警DSS系统,重点对系统建立的核心与难点——水质预警模型进行研究.密云水库是北京市最重要的地表水源地,以密云水库上游的白河为研究区域建立水污染预警DSS系统,设计水污染预警DSS系统的三层结构框架,将控制端、核心预警模型、GIS空间数据库紧密联合起来;在此基础上对核心预警模型的建模过程、参数取值等进行研究;最后以典型污染物氰化钠为例,设置水污染事故情景以及应急措施预案情景,进行了情景模拟分析.实例研究表明,此水质预警模型能够较准确地对污染发展趋势进行分析预测,并对不同的应急处理方案的实施效果进行模拟分析,模拟结果能够支持应急方案的制定与优选决策,达到了DSS系统的功能需求.     

基于闽台对比的福建耕地变化趋势演绎

闽台因其区域自然背景及历史文化的相似性和经济发展时序递差性成为区域对比研究的理想对象之一。利用闽台相关统计资料对比显示,闽台耕地变化共同呈现出先增后减、时有波动、总体减少的特点,但台湾耕地的先增后减时序后移,并且减少的总趋势较缓。以各市县平均耕地产出计算,福建新增耕地质量低于被占耕地质量,而台湾正好相反。文章最后通过对福建2010年耕地面积的多元回归预测以及闽台耕地对比演绎,说明福建要实现耕地保护目标,除了依靠严格的耕地保护政策外,依靠农业以及非农业的发展,提高现有耕地综合生产力更为重要。     

决策科学与DSS

要实现科学管理,必须掌握决策的科学,并在决策过程中运用现代管理的基本工具——计算机,以辅助决策,提高组织效能。本文正是以“国家环境质量决策支持系统”为分析范例,从决策科学与DSS技术的结合上介绍了决策模式分析,决策模型建立和决策选择,综述了DSS概念,结构和建立初始系统,并通过自适应的设计和应用过程形成最终系统的开发方法。文中列举了一些国内外开发应用DSS的实例,并指出在高层次复杂决策问题上,目前的DSS支持手段还是比较薄弱的      

Less-invasive autopsy for early pregnancy loss

Autopsy investigations provide valuable information regarding fetal death that can assist in the parental bereavement process, and influence future pregnancies, but conventional autopsy is often declined by parents because of its invasive approach. This has led to the development of less-invasive autopsy investigations based on imaging technology to provide a more accessible and acceptable choice for parents when investigating their loss. Whilst the development and use of more conventional clinical imaging techniques (radiographs, CT, MRI, US) are well described in the literature for fetuses over 20 weeks of gestational age, these investigations have limited diagnostic accuracy in imaging smaller fetuses. Techniques such as ultra-high-field MRI (>3T) and micro-focus computed tomography have been shown to have higher diagnostic accuracy whilst still being acceptable to parents. By further developing and increasing the availability of these more innovative imaging techniques, parents will be provided with a greater choice of acceptable options to investigate their loss, which may in turn increase their uptake. We provide a narrative review focussing on the development of high-resolution, non-invasive imaging techniques to evaluate early gestational pregnancy loss.     

Improving the environmental performance of the fishing fleet by use of Quality Function Deployment (QFD)

This article introduces Quality Function Deployment (QFD) as a method for improving the environmental performance of the Norwegian fishing fleet. Systems engineering has been introduced as a feasible process for handling sustainability issues in the fisheries, because it contains methods for general system design, operation, and support in a life-cycle perspective. QFD is related to systems engineering as a method for translating stakeholder needs into detailed system requirements at each life-cycle stage. Eco-QFD extends the scope of QFD, and combines QFD, Life-Cycle Cost (LCC), and Life-Cycle Analysis (LCA) to evaluate environmental effects and costs in the system development process. The article assesses the usefulness of Eco-QFD in fisheries management decision-making regarding sustainability in the fishing fleet, and for shipyards in their design of fishing vessels. It is concluded that Eco-QFD may be difficult to use for fisheries management in its present form, due to the complexity of sustainability, and the time and efforts demanded to carry out the analyses. Nevertheless, the structuring of the stakeholder needs and requirements may contribute to improved understanding of the decision-situation.     

Politics as a struggle over definition — two case studies

In our modern society the production of material welfare causes new kinds of ecological problems. This paper investigates the decision-making process in two cases which are characterised by complex technology and dependence upon science. These cases have implementation on a local level, but are of wider interest. The consequences of the facilities are defined in different ways by different actors at different levels (the national, regional, and the local level). The question is what kind of problems that are generated in relation to these new kinds of ecological problems and how they are handled within present political structures. The findings raise questions about the problem of limited political accountability and tensions between different policy levels. By way of conclusion there is a need for new forms of political responsibility that can respond to the new types of problems that arise in our time.     

Modeling and optimization of turning duplex stainless steels

The attractive combination of high mechanical strength, good corrosion resistance and relatively low cost has contributed to making duplex stainless steels (DSSs) one of the fastest growing groups of stainless steels. As the importance of DSSs is increasing, practical information about their successful machining is expected to be crucial. To address this industrial need, standard EN 1.4462 and super EN 1.4410 DSSs are machined under constant cutting speed multi-pass facing operations. A systematic approach which employs different modeling and optimization tools under a three phase investigation scheme has been adopted. In phase I, the effect of design variables such as cutting parameters, cutting fluids and axial length of cuts are investigated using the D-Optimal method. The mathematical models for performance characteristics such as; percentage increase in radial cutting force (%F_r), effective cutting power (P_e), maximum tool flank wear (VB_max) and chip volume ratio (R) are developed using response surface methodology (RSM). The adequacy of derived models for each cutting scenario is checked using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Parametric meta-heuristic optimization using Cuckoo search (CS) algorithm is then performed to determine the optimum design variable set for each performance. In the phase II, comprehensive experiment-based production cost and production rate models are developed. To overcome the conflict between the desire of minimizing the production cost and maximizing the production rate, compromise solutions are suggested using Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The alternatives are ranked according to their relative closeness to the ideal solution. In the phase III, expert systems based on fuzzy rule modeling approach are adopted to derive measures of machining operational sustainability called operational sustainability index (OSI). Artificial neural network (ANN) based models are developed to study the effect of design variables on computed OSIs. Cuckoo search neural network systems (CSNNS) are finally utilized to constrainedly optimize the cutting process per each cutting scenario. The most appropriate cutting setup to ensure successful turning of standard EN 1.4462 and super EN 1.4410 for each scenario is selected in accordance with conditions which give the maximum OSI.     

基于生态足迹的土地利用规划生态成效定量分析——以河北省廊坊市为例

我国新一轮土地利用总体规划修编工作势必要求对未来区域土地利用变化的生态影响进行全面、科学、定量的评价。目前,生态足迹及其相关模型已延伸至诸多领域,但应用于土地利用规划领域的研究尚少。论文以廊坊市为例,通过计算人均生态足迹和生态承载力的变化率和剪刀差,分析廊坊市土地利用总体规划(1997-2010年)规划实施期(1997-2004年)和规划影响期(2005-2010年)的人均生态足迹与生态承载力的变化趋势及差异,进而分析土地利用规划的生态成效。研究结果表明:①规划期(1997-2010年)廊坊市人均生态足迹与生态承载力呈反向发展趋势,人均生态赤字持续增加;②规划期(1997-2010年)廊坊市人均生态足迹与生态承载力变化趋势差异以2000年为界先减小后增大,未来几年内廊坊市生态环境的变化趋势不容乐观;③廊坊市土地利用总体规划(1997-2010年)取得了一定生态成效,但规划预期生态供给难以实现。因此,廊坊市新一轮土地利用总体规划(2005-2020年)重点应从片面强调建设用地数量提升向优化土地利用结构布局转变,加强科学、节约、集约土地利用。     

黄土高原地区生态脆弱性时空变化及其驱动因子分析

黄土高原是我国生态系统最脆弱的地区之一,科学评估其生态脆弱性是制定有效环境保护和管理措施的前提.然而,过去研究多关注某一小区域的生态脆弱性,不能反映该地区生态脆弱性的整体特征.基于"暴露-敏感性-适应力"模型框架,结合层次分析、空间主成分分析和地理探测器等方法评估了黄土高原地区2000~2015年生态脆弱性的时空变化特征及其驱动因子.结果表明,黄土高原地区生态脆弱性整体较高,并呈现出从东南到西北递增的趋势,且不同土地利用类型脆弱性差异大;2000~2015年生态脆弱性呈先增后降趋势,整体呈微弱降低趋势,其中约64%地区的脆弱性发生了变化;植被覆盖度和降水是控制生态脆弱性时空变化的主要因子,且所有指标因子间均存在明显的交互作用.说明气候变化和人类活动可能有助于降低黄土高原地区的生态脆弱性,但其作用有限.     

Qualitative and quantitative tool development to support environmentally responsible decisions

The Centre for Design at RMIT University in Melbourne, Australia has developed various quantitative and qualitative tools to support decision-making by industry and government partners in product design and policy development. The aim, in general, is to support development of attractive, functional, marketable products while enhancing their environmental performance. Depending on the product, the project scope and the client, the tools that are used can be anything from a half-day char-rette, environmental checklist, to a one-year life cycle assessment (LCA).In this paper we describe our approach and the various tools that have been developed by the research team at the Centre over recent years with the use of case studies. The paper argues that it is important for tool development to be based on solid research and information, but the key to influencing product design decisions is the translation of this information into a usable format for the users.     

Dynamics and the economics of carbon sequestration: common oversights and their implications

Accurate assessment of the cost of carbon sequestration is important for the development of mitigation policies globally. Given that sequestration in soils or vegetation is a lengthy process, such assessment requires financial discounting and making realistic assumptions about changes over time in the rate of sequestration, the price of carbon, and the opportunity cost incurred by adopting sequestration practices. Our objective is to demonstrate how these assumptions affect estimates of the cost of sequestration-based mitigation strategies. Using an Australian case study of soil carbon sequestration, our estimates of the carbon price required for financial viability are highly sensitive to dynamic assumptions, varying by a factor of four with different assumptions. Yet the influence of these time-related assumptions is poorly acknowledged in the literature, with many studies either failing to disclose their assumptions, or employing questionable assumptions and methods. Recommended global strategies are for researchers to report their assumptions related to dynamics much more transparently and to improve their research methods and the realism of their assumptions when analysing the economics of carbon sequestration. We recommend that policymakers become better aware of the issues created by dynamics, so that they are able to validly interpret assessments of the cost of sequestration and to ensure that they design policies in a way that facilitates fair comparison of the costs of mitigation strategies that operate over different timescales.     

Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways

Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various levels. This raises questions about who should monitor what, when and for whom. We formulate an approach that helps to address these questions, developed around the conceptual core offered by adaptive policy pathways methods and their notion of signposts and triggers. This is embedded in a wider approach that revisits the critical assumptions in underlying basic policies, looks forward to future adaptation decisions, and incorporates reciprocity in the organization of monitoring and evaluation. The usefulness and practical feasibility of the approach is studied for a case of the Delta Programme in the Netherlands, which incorporated adaptation pathways in its planning approach called adaptive delta management. The case results suggest that our approach adds value to existing monitoring practices. They further show that different types of signposts exist. Technical signposts, in particular, need to be distinguished from political ones, and require different learning processes with different types of actors.     

How do scientific assessments learn?: Part 1. Conceptual framework and case study of the IPCC

Scientific assessments play a crucial role in advising and shaping political decisions particularly in the environmental domain. Therefore, this and the accompanying paper (Part 2) present two case studies of international environmental assessments with a perspective on internal learning processes. When carried out over a longer period of time, scientific assessments provide an opportunity for learning from past experience and from other assessment experiences which gives them the opportunity to become more powerful institutions in the process of solving environmental problems and in advising political decision-making. The paper will investigate how the assessments at hand organised their learning processes and which factors might have been influential in these processes. To answer these questions, a conceptual framework will be developed drawing particularly on literature on organisational learning. This concept will be applied to two case studies on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and (Part 2) on the scientific assessments under the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). Both cases are iterative processes with significant changes of the assessment institutions over time, but they differ in their basic structures and in their effectiveness with regard to political outcomes which allows for their comparison in order to draw general conclusions.     

Experimental study on agitated drying characteristics of sewage sludge under the effects of different additive age

Drying experiments of dewatered sewage sludge (DSS) were conducted on a agitated paddle dryer, and the effects of additive agents, i.e., CaO, pulverized coal (PC), heavy oil (HO), and dried sludge ("DS" through back mixing) on the agitated drying characteristics of DSS were investigated. The results indicated that CaO can significantly increase the drying rate of DSS. The drying rate at CaO/DSS (mass ratio) = 1/100 was 135% higher than that of CaO/DSS = 0. Pulverized coal has no obvious effect on drying rate, but the increase of PC/DSS can promote breaking up of sludge lump. Heavy oil was found to be slightly effective in improving the drying rate of DSS in the examined experimental range of HO/DSS = 0-1/20. It is also found thatHOcan reduce the torque of the dryer shaft, due to its lubrication effect. Back mixing of DS was found to be effective in alleviating the unfavorable effect of the lumpy phase by improving the mixing effect of the paddle dryer. There was a marked increase of drying rate with an increase of the DS/DSS in the experimental range of DS/DSS = 0-1/3.     

Coming of age in an ant colony: cephalic muscle maturation accompanies behavioral development in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pheidole dentata</Emphasis>

Although several neurobiological and genetic correlates of aging and behavioral development have been identified in social insect workers, little is known about how other age-related physiological processes, such as muscle maturation, contribute to task performance. We examined post-eclosion growth of three major muscles of the head capsule in major and minor workers of the ant Pheidole dentata using workers of different ages with distinct task repertoires. Mandible closer muscle fibers, which provide bite force and are thus critical for the use of the mandibles for biting and load carrying, fill the posterio-lateral portions of the head capsule in mature, older workers of both subcastes. Mandible closer fibers of newly eclosed workers, in contrast, are significantly thinner in both subcastes and grow during at least the next 6 days in minor workers, suggesting this muscle has reduced functionality for a substantial period of adult life and thus constrains task performance capability. Fibers of the antennal muscles and the pharynx dilator, which control antennal movements and food intake, respectively, also increase significantly in thickness with age. However, these fibers are only slightly thinner in newly eclosed workers and attain their maximum thickness over a shorter time span in minors. The different growth rates of these functionally distinct muscles likely have consequences for how adult P. dentata workers, particularly minors, develop their full and diverse task repertoire as they age. Workers may be capable of feeding and interacting socially soon after eclosion, but require a longer period of development to effectively use their mandibles, which enable the efficient performance of tasks ranging from nursing to foraging and defense.     

闽台耕地非农化及关联因子的比较研究

土地利用/覆盖变化的区域对比分析被国际地理学联合会LUCC工作组列为2000～2004年期间的三大研究目标之一,闽台因其区域自然背景及历史文化的相似性和经济发展时序递差性成为区域对比研究的理想对象之一。利用闽台相关统计资料对比显示,福建1979～2001年与台湾1969～1998年的耕地非农化呈现周期性变化。对影响耕地非农化因子进行灰色关联分析,结果显示:人口增加及城市化水平提高、农业发展共同构成闽台耕地非农化的第一、二驱动因子;经济发展水平影响闽台耕地非农化的规模与利用效率,从同一时点比较,福建非农化土地利用效率远低于台湾,但就同处于工业化中期的发展阶段比较,福建非农化土地的利用效率明显高于台湾;农副产品的对外贸易量对台湾耕地非农化的影响强于福建。最后分析了闽台不同经济发展时期经济发展政策与土地管理法规对耕地非农化的影响。     

中国资源枯竭城市的转型效果评价

论文通过对资源枯竭城市转型发展中各方面变化的分析总结,提出以基础、经济、社会、生态4个要素为框架建立资源枯竭城市转型发展指标体系的思路,并根据2005-2009年《中国城市统计年鉴》数据,测量各个资源枯竭城市在自身转型和区域发展地位提升两方面的发展状态。之后对城市的转型效果进行分类分析,发现资源枯竭城市转型总体态势较好,但城市转型效果在空间上以及不同类别城市间存在明显差异,部分城市没有实现经济、社会、环境协调转型发展。     

Reduction of the environmental impact of coal storage piles: A wind tunnel study

This paper presents an application of scale model wind tunnel tests to reduce the environmental pollution provoked by fugitive dust from coal storage piles. The effectiveness of different types of wind breaks, shelter belts and coating chemicals has been tested under different wind speeds and pile layouts. Most of the results presented in this paper are of general significance and demonstrate the usefulness of comparative simulations in reducing real pollution impact problems. The best reductions in dust deposition (up to 85%) have been assured by using chemical additives spread over the pile surface, whose coating action remained nearly unvaried up to 5 days or more, and wind breaks provided with suitable baffles for wind deviation.     

Transitioning to sustainable production – Part I: application on machining technologies

This two part paper presents general issues, methods and a case study for achieving production sustainability on a machining technology level. In order to tackle these issues, the paper promotes sustainable production via the alternative machining technologies, namely cryogenic and high pressure jet assisted machining that have a high potential to cut costs and improve competitiveness by reducing resource consumption and thus creating less waste. The general issues of sustainable technologies pointed out with a comparative case study life cycle assessment performed for alternative machining processes are covered in part I of the work, concluding that future of sustainable production is going to entail the use of alternative machining technologies to reduce consumption rates, environmental burdens, and health risks simultaneously, while increasing performances and profitability. As an upgrade to this part, overall cost evaluation is covered by a case study in part II of this work.