Assessing the Performance of the NELUP Hydrological Models for River Basin Planning

The hydrological modelling capability within the NERC/ESRC Land Use Programme is built around two simulation codes, SHETRAN and ARNO. Together these provide a comprehensive tool for analysing the potential impacts of land use change on the hydrology of a catchment. Both models have been validated for five-year flow simulations on the prototype Tyne catchment. Results from the SHETRAN nitrate simulations are also presented with the limited available validation data. Finally, the value of the hydrology models is discussed in the context of river basin planning.     

Assessing the Restoration Success of River Widenings: A Landscape Approach

During the last 200 years, many rivers in industrialized countries have been modified by canalization. In the last two decades, the philosophy of river management has changed considerably, and restoration of ecological integrity has become an important management goal. One appealing restoration approach is to create “river widenings” that permit braiding within a limited area. This study presents a new and efficient framework for rapidly assessing such widening projects and offers a novel method to comparing restored sites with near-natural stretches (stencil technique). The proposed framework evaluates spatial patterns of riparian habitat types using landscape metrics as indicators. Three case studies from river restoration (river widening) in Switzerland are presented for demonstration purposes.The method compares restored sites with prerestoration conditions and near-natural conditions, which are assumed to represent the worst and best case states of a river system. To take into account the limited spatial extent of the restored sites, the so-called “stencil technique” was developed, where the landscape metrics of the near-natural reference sites are calculated for both the entire study area and smaller sections (clips). The clips are created by using a stencil that has the exact shape and size of the restored area (random window-sampling technique). Subsequently, the calculated metrics for the restored sites are compared to the range of values calculated for the near-natural data subset. Our studies show that the proposed method is easy to apply andprovides a valid way to assess the restoration success of river widenings. We found that river widenings offer real opportunities for establishing riparian habitats. However, they promote mainly pioneer successional stages and the habitat mosaic of the restored section is more complex than at the near-natural reference sites.     

Assessing pollution prevention program by QUAL2E simulation analysis for the Kao-Ping River Basin, Taiwan

Wise and sustainable uses of water resources are essential for an effective river-basin-management planning. Recent management strategy further addresses the fact that quantity and quality of water are closely interrelated, and both must be considered simultaneously for all water resources and water quality management practices. The aim of this paper is to explore the impacts of water resources redistribution and pollution prevention actions between and within river basins simultaneously in South Taiwan. Much emphasis will be placed on assessing the impacts of water transfer over natural boundary to satisfy the needs of industrial development in the Tseng-Wen River system and its resultant influence on the water quality in the downstream area of the Kao-Ping River system where the pollution prevention program is to be implemented. The Kao-Ping River was further characterized hydraulically and environmentally, based on a full investigation of discharges and withdrawals in the river reaches. QUAL2E was successfully calibrated and validated using data collected between 1998 and 1999, and the model was capable of predicting the concentrations of biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, total phosphate-phosphorus, and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N) for the entire river system. With the aid of QUAL2E simulation model, it shows eliminating the pig farming activities and constructing the sewer systems in the upstream area of Kao-Ping River cannot guarantee the full compliance with water quality standards in the downstream area and water transfer in the upstream area further increases negative impacts on the water quality in the wet season. The predicted situation of water quality in the dry season may even present worse condition. Additional water pollution control policy, such as the use of economic instruments, for controlling and reducing the waste-load of biochemical oxygen demand and ammonia-nitrogen is needed in the Kao-Ping River system in the long run.     

开发楠溪江风景区旅游资源

本文分析了楠溪江风景区旅游资源的主要特征,并针对目前旅游资源开发存在的问题,提出了开发楠溪江风景区旅游资源的对策与措施．     

A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin

The Pacific Northwest is expected to witness changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. In this study, we enhance the Snake River Planning Model (SRPM) by modeling the feedback loop between incidental recharge and surface water supply resulting from surface water and groundwater extraction for irrigation and provide a case study involving climate change impacts and management scenarios. The new System Dynamics‐Snake River Planning Model (SD‐SRPM) is calibrated to flow at Box Canyon Springs located along a major outlet of the East Snake Plain Aquifer. A calibration of the model to flow at Box Canyon Springs, based on historic diversions (1950‐1995) resulted in an r² value of 0.74 and a validation (1996‐2005) r² value of 0.60. After adding irrigation entities to the model an r² value of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 were maintained for modeled vs. observed (1991‐2005) end‐of‐month reservoir content in Jackson Lake, Palisades, and American Falls, the three largest irrigation reservoirs in the system. The scenarios that compared the impacts of climate change were based on ensemble mean precipitation change scenarios and estimated changes to crop evapotranspiration (ET). Increased ET, despite increased precipitation, generally increased surface water shortages and discharge of springs. This study highlights the need to develop and implement models that integrate the human‐natural system to understand the impacts of climate change.     

流域比较视角的钱塘江与黑河流域水资源问题及对策研究——基于水足迹核算分析

产品贸易及水权交易使得水资源问题"跨流域化",不再单纯是流域内部管理问题。本文从流域比较视角出发,在区分蓝、绿、灰三种水足迹的基础上,应用水足迹模型,测算了两流域典型地区的水足迹,进行流域水资源问题对比分析,并分析了经济发展模式对流域水资源可持续性的影响。结果发现,杭州市经济用水中灰色水足迹占总量的90%,而张掖市经济用水中绿色水足迹占总量的60.8%,说明钱塘江流域水资源问题在于质,而黑河流域水资源问题在于量;经济发展模式中的产业结构、水资源开发效率、工业化路径等影响流域水资源可持续利用,同时基于GDP导向的流域间的水资源逆向配置,更加剧了流域水资源矛盾。最后根据流域对比结果提出治理措施,从而形成流域间协作的良性循环。     

东江流域水资源安全评价

针对东江流域的地区特点,以目前社会和经济发展水平为基础,确立水资源安全分级标准,采用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,用多级模糊综合评判法对东江流域水资源安全进行评价,最后得出从2000年到2007年东江流域各行政区的水资源安全度呈下降的趋势。     

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia1

Kim, Ungtae and Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, 2009. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1361‐1378. Abstract: Climate change affects water resources availability of international river basins that are vulnerable to runoff variability of upstream countries especially with increasing water demands. The upper Blue Nile River Basin is a good example because its downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, depend solely on Nile waters for their economic development. In this study, the impacts of climate change on both hydrology and water resources operations were analyzed using the outcomes of six different general circulation models (GCMs) for the 2050s. The outcomes of these six GCMs were weighted to provide average future changes. Hydrologic sensitivity, flow statistics, a drought index, and water resources assessment indices (reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability) were used as quantitative indicators. The changes in outflows from the two proposed dams (Karadobi and Border) to downstream countries were also assessed. Given the uncertainty of different GCMs, the simulation results of the weighted scenario suggested mild increases in hydrologic variables (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff) across the study area. The weighted scenario also showed that low‐flow statistics and the reliability of streamflows are increased and severe drought events are decreased mainly due to increased precipitation. Joint dam operation performed better than single dam operation in terms of both hydropower generation and mean annual storage without affecting the runoff volume to downstream countries, but enhancing flow characteristics and the robustness of streamflows. This study provides useful information to decision makers for the planning and management of future water resources of the study area and downstream countries.     

Assessing Satellite and Ground‐Based Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Applications in the Colorado River Basin

This study evaluates a remotely sensed and two ground‐based potential evapotranspiration (PET) products for hydrologic application in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The remotely sensed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer product (MODIS‐PET) is a continuous, daily time series with 250 m resolution derived using the Priestley‐Taylor (P‐T) equation. The MODIS‐PET is evaluated against regional flux tower data as well as a synthetic pan product (Epan; 0.125°, daily) derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and a Hargreaves PET derived from DAYMET variables (DAYMET‐PET; 1 km, daily). Compared to point‐scale PET computed using regional flux tower data, the MODIS‐PET had lower errors, with RMSE values ranging from 2.24 to 2.85 mm/day. Epan RMSE values ranged from 3.70 to 3.76 mm/day and DAYMET‐PET RMSE values ranged from 3.55 to 4.58 mm/day. Further investigation showed biases in temperature and radiation data contribute to uncertainty in the MODIS‐PET values, while bias in NLDAS temperature, downward shortwave (SW↓), and downward longwave (LW↓) propagate in the Epan estimates. Larger discrepancies between methods were observed in the warmer, drier regions of the UCRB, however, the MODIS‐PET was more responsive to landcover transitions and better captured basin heterogeneity. Results indicate the satellite‐based MODIS product can serve as a viable option for obtaining spatial PET values across the UCRB.     

Estimating Nitrogen Loading to Ground Water and Assessing Vulnerability to Nitrate Contamination in a Large Karstic Springs Basin,Florida1

Abstract: A nitrogen (N) mass‐balance budget was developed to assess the sources of N affecting increasing ground‐water nitrate concentrations in the 960‐km² karstic Ichetucknee Springs basin. This budget included direct measurements of N species in rainfall, ground water, and spring waters, along with estimates of N loading from fertilizers, septic tanks, animal wastes, and the land application of treated municipal wastewater and residual solids. Based on a range of N leaching estimates, N loads to ground water ranged from 262,000 to 1.3 million kg/year; and were similar to N export from the basin in spring waters (266,000 kg/year) when 80‐90% N losses were assumed. Fertilizers applied to cropland, lawns, and pine stands contributed about 51% of the estimated total annual N load to ground water in the basin. Other sources contributed the following percentages of total N load to ground water: animal wastes, 27%; septic tanks, 12%; atmospheric deposition, 8%; and the land application of treated wastewater and biosolids, 2%. Due to below normal rainfall (97.3 cm) during the 12‐month rainfall collection period, N inputs from rainfall likely were about 30% lower than estimates for normal annual rainfall (136 cm). Low N‐isotope values for six spring waters (δ¹⁵N‐NO₃ = 3.3 to 6.3‰) and elevated potassium concentrations in ground water and spring waters were consistent with the large N contribution from fertilizers. Given ground‐water residence times on the order of decades for spring waters, possible sinks for excess N inputs to the basin include N storage in the unsaturated zone and parts of the aquifer with relatively sluggish ground‐water movement and denitrification. A geographical‐based model of spatial loading from fertilizers indicated that areas most vulnerable to nitrate contamination were located in closed depressions containing sinkholes and other dissolution features in the southern half of the basin.     

安宁河流域的光温水资源及生产潜力分析

从北至南依次连接冕宁县、西昌市、德昌县和米易县的安宁河流域,具有丰富的光温资源,平均气温14.1～19.4℃,≥10℃的积温4200～7300℃;年日照时数2044～2413h,年总辐射507～590KJ/cm~2;其中中下游区长夏无冬,热量资源为全省之冠。光温生产力达33903～56888kg/ha,增产潜力30228～52410kg/ha,增产潜力指数89.16%～92.13%。但因该流域干雨季节分明,干季降水不到10%,冬干春旱;雨季洪涝成灾,严重限制了光温生产潜力的发挥。自然生产潜力的光能利用率只占光合生产潜力的38%.实行水土综合改良,增加保灌面积和小春复种指数,以及立体开发,是挖掘生产潜力的有效措施。     

浅谈三江源区隆务河流域水资源现状

本文对三江源自然保护区的重要河流——隆务河流域的水环境污染源、污染物及其排放状况进行了现场全方位调查,选取pH、Cr6+、DO、COD等为监测项目,调查结果表明该地区水资源已经达不到国家地表水环境质量标准(GB 3838—2002)要求。本文还分析其污染源沿河流呈零星分布的特点,阐述了污染物对环境造成的危害,为三江源的水环境可持续发展提供保障。     

Assessing Retrospective National Water Model Streamflow with Respect to Droughts and Low Flows in the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow monitoring in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is essential to ensure diverse needs are met, especially during periods of drought or low flow. Existing stream gage networks, however, provide a limited record of past and current streamflow. Modeled streamflow products with more complete spatial and temporal coverage (including the National Water Model [NWM]), have primarily focused on flooding, rather than sustained drought or low flow conditions. Objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate historical performance of the NWM streamflow estimates (particularly with respect to droughts and seasonal low flows) and (2) identify characteristics relevant to model inputs and suitability for future applications. Comparisons of retrospective flows from the NWM to observed flows from the United States Geological Survey stream gage network over 22 years in the CRB reveal a tendency for underestimating low flow frequency, locations with low flows, and the number of years with low flows. We found model performance to be more accurate for the Upper CRB and at sites with higher precipitation, snow percent, baseflow index, and elevations. Underestimation of low flows and variable model performance has important implications for future applications: inaccurate evaluations of historical low flows and droughts, and less reliable performance outside of specific watershed/stream conditions. This highlights characteristics on which to focus future model development efforts.     

漓江流域旅游资源空间结构演变驱动机制分析

在分析漓江流域旅游资源空间结构演变过程的基础上,使用集聚与扩散理论、引力模型等方法研究漓江流域旅游资源开发的空间结构演变的影响因子和驱动机制。结果表明,旅游资源、环境和区位特性是影响空间结构演变的关键因子;经济因素、旅游资源价值因素、旅游资源空间分布状况、区位特征是驱动旅游资源空间结构集聚与扩散的驱动力;政策发展、产业结构调整与优化是推动其演变的驱动力;互利共生驱动力是促进旅游资源开发类型差异化的动力,竞争促使空间结构发生重要变化。     

基于SD模型的博尔塔拉河流域水资源承载力研究

从水资源承载力的研究方法入手,采用系统动力学方法进行水资源承载力定量化计算,在对博尔塔拉河流域地理环境现状和该方法建模思路分析的基础上,建立适合该地区特色的系统动力学模型（简称SD模型）。应用Yenism软件,把各参数代入方程,对博尔塔拉河流域水资源利用和需求进行动态计算。通过对模型计算结果的分析,验证了模型的合理性和可操作性,从而为博尔塔拉河流域水资源承载力的进一步研究提供了必要的手段,也为其他区域的水资源可持续利用研究提供了一定的借鉴。     

滇池流域管理体制机制改革方案初探

滇池是中国重点治理的"三湖"之一。自"九五"以来国家已投入大量资金治理滇池水环境,但收效缓慢。流域综合管理是现代流域管理体制改革和发展的方向。面对流域社会经济的快速发展带来的污染压力和治理效果的不理想,流域管理体制机制的改革成为加快滇池流域水环境治理的必然选择和迫切需求。本文通过部门调研、专家访谈、信息综合分析等方法,剖析了滇池流域管理体制的问题,并提出了滇池流域管理体制机制改革方案。滇池流域的管理呈现出以部门为基础的横向管理和以行政单位为基础的纵向管理相交叉的条块分割局面,导致流域多头管理、多重目标。同时利益相关方参与广度和深度均不足。最后建议滇池流域的管理从管理机构、管理方式以及利益相关方参与等方面进行改革,分为近期、远期分步实施,最终实现一方主导、以流域为管理单元、利益相关方充分参与的流域综合管理体制机制。本文可为滇池流域管理体制改革提供有力参考,也可为其他流域管理体制的完善提供借鉴。     

Hydroclimatology of the Mississippi River Basin

Model estimated monthly water balance (WB) components (i.e., potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and runoff [R]) for 848 United States (U.S.) Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic units located in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the MRB WB for water years 1901 through 2014. Results indicate the MRB can be divided into nine subregions with similar temporal variability in R. The WB analyses indicated ~79% of total water‐year MRB runoff is generated by four of the nine subregions and most of the R in the basin is derived from surplus (S) water during the months of December through May. Furthermore, the analyses showed temporal variability in S is largely controlled by the occurrence of negative atmospheric pressure anomalies over the western U.S. and positive atmospheric pressure anomalies over the eastern U.S. coast. This combination of atmospheric pressure anomalies results in an anomalous flow of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the MRB. In the context of paleo‐climate reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, since about 1900 the MRB has experienced wetter conditions than were experienced during the previous 500 years.     

Carp (Cyprinidae) Fisheries in Swedish Lakes: A Combined Environmental Assessment Approach to Evaluate Data-limited Freshwater Fish Resources as Food

Environmental Management - The role of aquatic resources to food security is both promising and constrained since the global seafood consumption is increasing while marine fisheries approach the...