Hydrodynamic Simulation of River Yamuna for Riverbed Assessment: A Case Study of Delhi Region

A well known river hydrodynamic model RiverCAD has been used to simulate and visualize flood scenarios for different designated flood flows under complex riverbed geometry with several man made structures like bridges and barrages. The model applied successfully for the stretch of 23 km in the Yamuna floodplain of Delhi region from Wazirabad barrage in the upstream to Okhla barrage. Flood flows for various return periods namely once in 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were estimated based on recorded flow data for the period of 1963 to 2003 using standard flood frequency analysis techniques. The simulation results were compared and the model was calibrated with water surface elevation records of the previous floods at various barrage and bridge locations. Simulation results enabled prediction of maximum water levels, submergence scenarios and land availability under different designated flood flows for riverbed assessment, development and management.     

Assessment of Flood Losses with Household Responses: Agent-Based Simulation in an Urban Catchment Area

Densely populated coastal urban areas are often exposed to multiple hazards, in particular floods and storms. Flood defenses and other engineering measures contribute to the mitigation of flood hazards, but a holistic approach to flood risk management should consider other interventions from the human side, including warning information, adaptive behavior, people/property evacuation, and the multilateral relief in local communities. There are few simulation approaches to consider these factors, and these typically focus on collective human actions. This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates flood response preferences and actions taken within individual households to reduce flood losses. The model implements a human response framework in which agents assess different flood scenarios according to warning information and decide whether and how much they invest in response measures to reduce potential inundation damages. A case study has been carried out in the Ng Tung River basin, an urbanized watershed in northern Hong Kong. Adopting a digital elevation model (DEM) as the modeling environment and a building map of household locations in the case area, the model considers the characteristics of households and the flood response behavior of their occupants. We found that property value, warning information, and storm conditions all influence household losses, with downstream and high density areas being particularly vulnerable. Results further indicate (i) that a flood warning system, which provides timely, accurate, and broad coverage rainstorm warning, can reduce flood losses by 30–40%; and (ii) to reduce losses, it is more effective and cheaper to invest early in response measures than late actions. This dynamic agent-based modeling approach is an innovative attempt to quantify and model the role of human responses in flood loss assessments. The model is demonstrated being useful for analyzing household scale flood losses and responses and it has the potential to contribute to flood emergency planning resource allocation in pluvial flood incidents.     

Determining the most suitable areas for artificial groundwater recharge via an integrated PROMETHEE II-AHP method in GIS environment (case study: Garabaygan Basin, Iran)

Flood spreading is a suitable strategy for controlling and benefiting from floods. Selecting suitable areas for flood spreading and directing the floodwater into permeable formations are amongst the most effective strategies in flood spreading projects. Having combined geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis approaches, the present study sought to locate the most suitable areas for flood spreading operation in the Garabaygan Basin of Iran. To this end, the data layers relating to the eight effective factors were prepared in GIS environment. This stage was followed by elimination of the exclusionary areas for flood spreading while determining the potentially suitable ones. Having closely examined the potentially suitable areas using the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) II and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods, the land suitability map for flood spreading was produced. The PROMETHEE II and AHP were used for ranking all the alternatives and weighting the criteria involved, respectively. The results of the study showed that most suitable areas for the artificial groundwater recharge are located in Quaternary Q_g and Q^gsc geologic units and in geomorphological units of pediment and Alluvial fans with slopes not exceeding 3 %. Furthermore, significant correspondence between the produced map and the control areas, where the flood spreading projects were successfully performed, provided further evidence for the acceptable efficiency of the integrated PROMETHEE II-AHP method in locating suitable flood spreading areas.     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Bago River Basin,Myanmar

Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle is important for basin scale water resources management. This study aims to investigate the potential impacts of land use and climate change on the hydrology of the Bago River Basin in Myanmar. Two scenarios from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) were used to project the future climate of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Six general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were selected to project the future climate in the basin. An increase of average temperature in the range of 0.7 to 1.5 °C and 0.9 to 2.7 °C was observed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, in future periods. Similarly, average annual precipitation shows a distinct increase in all three periods with the highest increase in 2050s. A well calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the land use and climate change impacts on future stream flows in the basin. It is observed that the impact of climate change on stream flow is higher than the land use change in the near future. The combined impacts of land use and climate change can increase the annual stream flow up to 68 % in the near future. The findings of this study would be beneficial to improve land and water management decisions and in formulating adaptation strategies to reduce the negative impacts, and harness the positive impacts of land use and climate change in the Bago River Basin.     

Applying parcel-specific land-use data for improved monitoring of semi-natural grassland in Denmark

A major obstacle to the conservation and management of semi-natural grassland (SNG) is the general lack of consistent and precise maps showing the extent and quality of this habitat type. SNG is related to, and influenced by, agricultural land use. Both intensive land use as well as a lack of extensive land use can reduce the extent and quality of SNG. For Denmark, this paper demonstrates how parcel-specific land-use data can be applied to detect localities with spatial convergences and conflicts between SNG and agricultural land use. Based on their respective influence on SNG, land use is aggregated into five major classes and spatially overlaid with existing nationally registered SNG. Results show that almost 11 % of all SNG is mapped either on cropped land or on rotational grassland, indicating a conflict between mapped SNG and land use. Thirty percent of SNG is mapped outside any agricultural land use, pointing to a lack of management. Fifty nine percent of SNG is mapped either on land receiving payments for grazing/mowing or on other land under extensive management, indicating a convergence between SNG and land use. Finally, 30 % of land receiving payments for grazing/mowing and 62 % of other land under extensive management does not contain any semi-natural habitat. Potential, as yet unmapped, SNG might exist in these localities. Based on these results it is argued that the application of parcel-specific land-use data could significantly improve monitoring of SNG.     

Climate change impacts detection in dry forested ecosystem as indicated by vegetation cover change in —Laikipia,of Kenya

The objective of the study was to detect and identify land cover changes in Laikipia County of Kenya that have occurred during the last three decades. The land use types of study area are six, of which three are the main and the other three are the minor. The main three, forest, shrub or bush land and grassland, changed during the period, of which grasslands reduced by 5864 ha (40%), forest by 3071 ha (24%) and shrub and bush land increased by 8912 ha (43%). The other three minor land use types were bare land which had reduced by 238 ha (45%), river bed vegetation increased by 209 ha (72%) and agriculture increased by 52 ha (600%) over the period decades. Differences in spatiotemporal variations of vegetation could be largely attributed to the effects of climate factors, anthropogenic activities and their interactions. Precipitation and temperature have been demonstrated to be the key climate factors for plant growth and vegetation development where rainfall decreased by 200 mm and temperatures increased by 1.5 °C over the period. Also, the opinion of the community on the change of land use and management was attributed to climate change and also adaptation strategies applied by the community over time. For example unlike the common understanding that forest resources utilisation increases with increasing human population, Mukogodo dry forested ecosystem case is different in that the majority of the respondents (78.9%) reported that the forest resource use was more in that period than now and also a similar majority (74.2%) had the same opinion that forest resource utilisation was low compared to last 30 years. In Yaaku community, change impacts were evidenced and thus mitigation measures suggested to address the impacts which included the following: controlled bush management and indigenous grass reseeding programme were advocated to restore original grasslands, and agricultural (crop farming) activities are carried out in designated areas outside the forest conservation areas (ecosystem zoning) all in consultation with government (political class), community and other stakeholders. Groups are organised (environmental management committee) to address conservation, political and vulnerability issues in the pastoral dry forested ecosystem which will sustain pastoralism in the ecosystem.     

Changes in forest biomass carbon stock in Northern Turkey between 1973 and 2006

New forest management and planning approaches are designed to optimize forest structure. Optimal forest structure was determined using newly established growth models while considering primary timber production objectives as well as non-timber objectives for inaccessible areas and social and political pressures on land management. With currently planned management the forests of the Ormanüstü Planning Unit (OPU) in the Black Sea region of northern Turkey are likely to become an important C sink. To quantify this potential C sink and understand its implication to the regional carbon budget and future forest management, we estimated the changes in the OPU between 1973 and 2006. Based on four periods of data for the OPU forests obtained from the Forest Management and Planning Office of Turkey, we used allometric biomass and C regression equations along with biomass expansion factors to estimate the forest biomass carbon pool for each of four inventory years 1973, 1984, 1997, and 2006. Since 1973, OPU forests have accumulated 110.2?×?10³ tons of C as a result of forest expansion and the growth of extant forests, increasing by 50.8 % from 217?×?10³ tons in 1973 to 327.2?×?10³ tons C in 2006. Hardwood and softwood forests accounted for 44 and 56 % of carbon accumulation during this period, respectively. From 1973 through 2006, forest C accumulated at a rate of 3.3?×?10³ tons C year^?1. Carbon density of the OPU forests in the Black Sea region increased by 48.2 % from 5,679 to 8,419 tons/ha.     

Vegetated ditches as a management practice in irrigated alfalfa

The organophosphate (OP) insecticides diazinon and chlorpyrifos have been frequently detected in the San Joaquin River, California, USA. Irrigation tail waters are a significant source of OP pesticides in the watershed. This study tested several management practices for reducing offsite movement of chlorpyrifos to surface water from flood irrigated alfalfa. Management practices evaluated include (1) a constructed, vegetated irrigation tailwater return ditch and (2) increased lag time between chlorpyrifos application and start of flood irrigation. Chlorpyrifos concentrations in whole-water samples of irrigation runoff were variable and ranged from 0.22 mug/l to a maximum of 1.67 mug/l. The median concentration reduction at the end of a 200 m vegetated ditch was 38% compared to 1% in an adjacent conventional tail water ditch. Runoff data collected represented first flush runoff from sets that were irrigated between 48 and 144 h after chlorpyrifos application. There was no consistent effect of irrigation lag time on chlorpyrifos concentration in tailwater for lag times of up to 144 h. Consequently these data indicate that delayed irrigation is not an effective management practice for reducing chlorpyrifos off-site movement to surface water in California flood irrigated alfalfa.     

Analysing land cover changes for understanding of forest dynamics using temporal forest management plans

This study analyses forest dynamics and land use/land cover change over a 43-year period using spatial-stand-type maps of temporal forest management plans of Karaisal? Forest Enterprise in the Eastern Mediterranean Region of Turkey. Stand parameters (tree species, crown closures and developmental stages) of the dynamics and changes caused by natural or artificial intervention were introduced and mapped in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and subjected to fragmentation analysis using FRAGSTATS. The Karaisal? Forest Enterprise was first planned in 1969 and then the study area was planned under the Mediterranean Forest Use project in 1991 and five-term forest management plans were made. In this study, we analysed only four periods (excluding 1982 revision plans): 1969, 1991, 2002 and 2012. Between 1969 and 2012, overall changes included a net increase of 3,026 ha in forested areas. Cumulative forest improvement accounted for 2.12 % and the annual rate of total forest improvement averaged 0.08 %. In addition, productive forest areas increased from 36,174 to 70,205 ha between 1969 and 2012. This translates into an average annual productive forest improvement rate of 1.54 %. At the same time, fully covered forest areas with crown closure of “3” (>70 %) increased about 21,321 ha, and young forest areas in developmental stage of “a” (diameter at breast height (dbh)?<?8 cm) increased from 716 to 13,305 ha over the 43-year study period. Overall changes show that productive and fully covered forest areas have increased egregiously with a focus on regenerated and young developmental stages. A spatial analysis of metrics over the 43-year study period indicated a more fragmented landscape resulting in a susceptible forest to harsh disturbances.     

Use of continuous monitoring to assess stream nitrate flux and transformation patterns

Delivery of nitrogen from farmed fields to the stream network is an ongoing water quality issue in central North America and other parts of the world. Although fertilization and other farming practices have been refined to produce environmental improvements, stemming loss of nitrogen, especially in the soluble nitrate form, is a problem that has seemingly defied solution. The Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy is a policy initiative designed to implement conservation and other farm management practices to produce reductions in nitrate loading. The strategy does not focus on how the streams themselves may or may not be processing nitrogen and reducing downstream loading. We used continuous high-frequency nitrate and discharge monitoring over 3 years at two sites separated by 18 km in a low-order, agricultural stream in eastern Iowa to estimate how nitrogen is processed, and whether or not these processes are reducing downstream loading. We conclude that the upstream to downstream nitrate concentration decline between the two sites was not driven by denitrification. These data also show that nitrate concentrations are closely coupled to discharge during periods of adequate moisture, but decoupling of concentration from discharge occurs during dry periods. This decoupling is a possible indicator of in-stream nitrate processing. Finally, nitrate concentrations are likely diluted by water sourced from non-row crop land covers in the lower reaches of the watershed.     

Remote sensing and GIS-based integrated analysis of land cover change in Duzce plain and its surroundings (north western Turkey)

The aim of this study is to research natural land cover change caused by the permanent effects of human activities in Duzce plain and its surroundings, and to determine the current status of the land cover. For this purpose, two Landsat TM images were used in the study for the years 1987 and 2010. These images are analysed by using data image processing techniques in ERDAS Imagine©10.0 and ArcGIS©10.0 software. Land cover change nomenclature is classified according to the Coordination of Information on the Environment Level 2 Classification (1—urban fabric, 2—industrial, commercial and transport units, 3—heterogeneous agricultural areas, 4—forests, and 5—inland wetlands). Furthermore, the image analysis results are confirmed by the field research. According to the results, a decrease of 33.5 % was recorded in forest areas from 24,840.7 to 16,529.0 ha; an increase of 11.2 % was recorded in heterogeneous agricultural areas from 47,702.7 to 53,051.7 ha. Natural vegetation, which is the large part of land cover in the research area, has been changing rapidly because of rapid urbanisation and agricultural activities. As a result, it is concluded that significant changes have occurred on the natural land cover between the years 1987 and 2010 in the Duzce plain and its surroundings.     

Investigation of landslide potential parameters on Zonguldak–Ereğli Highway and adverse effects of landslides in the region

Landslides are natural phenomena in the same class of natural disasters as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, erosion, and volcanic eruptions that adversely affect human lives and property. Owing to their widespread occurrence, landslides are easily visible and able to be partially understood by people witnessing them. Nevertheless, to comprehend the detail of their formation and determine their potential, it is necessary to undertake geodetic, geological, and geophysical measurements in regions prone to landslides. By analyzing these measurements, it is possible to better ascertain those regions predisposed to landslides and thus provide the means to prevent loss of life and property. The city of Zonguldak, situated in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey, has a high occurrence of landslides owing to its harsh topography with rugged and steep slopes and rainfall in almost every season. Furthermore, the diurnal temperature ranging up to 10 °C in all seasons, especially in winter, plays a crucial role in rock disintegration in this region. Other factors damage ground composition and trigger landslides, such as underground mining operations, road construction that collapses rocky hills using explosives, and excavation works in steep terrain for building construction. This study gives a detailed account of the causes and adverse effects of landslides and their parameters through examples of landslide occurrences in the region, together with the results and analyses of two periods of geodetic measurements conducted on the Zonguldak–Ere?li Highway in Il?ksu district.     

Spatial and temporal estimation of soil loss for the sustainable management of a wet semi-arid watershed cluster

The ungauged wet semi-arid watershed cluster, Seethagondi, lies in the Adilabad district of Telangana in India and is prone to severe erosion and water scarcity. The runoff and soil loss data at watershed, catchment, and field level are necessary for planning soil and water conservation interventions. In this study, an attempt was made to develop a spatial soil loss estimation model for Seethagondi cluster using RUSLE coupled with ARCGIS and was used to estimate the soil loss spatially and temporally. The daily rainfall data of Aphrodite for the period from 1951 to 2007 was used, and the annual rainfall varied from 508 to 1351 mm with a mean annual rainfall of 950 mm and a mean erosivity of 6789 MJ mm ha^?1 h^?1 year^?1. Considerable variation in land use land cover especially in crop land and fallow land was observed during normal and drought years, and corresponding variation in the erosivity, C factor, and soil loss was also noted. The mean value of C factor derived from NDVI for crop land was 0.42 and 0.22 in normal year and drought years, respectively. The topography is undulating and major portion of the cluster has slope less than 10°, and 85.3 % of the cluster has soil loss below 20 t ha^?1 year^?1. The soil loss from crop land varied from 2.9 to 3.6 t ha^?1 year^?1 in low rainfall years to 31.8 to 34.7 t ha^?1 year^?1 in high rainfall years with a mean annual soil loss of 12.2 t ha^?1 year^?1. The soil loss from crop land was higher in the month of August with an annual soil loss of 13.1 and 2.9 t ha^?1 year^?1 in normal and drought year, respectively. Based on the soil loss in a normal year, the interventions recommended for 85.3 % of area of the watershed includes agronomic measures such as contour cultivation, graded bunds, strip cropping, mixed cropping, crop rotations, mulching, summer plowing, vegetative bunds, agri-horticultural system, and management practices such as broad bed furrow, raised sunken beds, and harvesting available water using farm ponds and percolation tanks. This methodology can be adopted for estimating the soil loss from similar ungauged watersheds with deficient data and for planning suitable soil and water conservation interventions for the sustainable management of the watersheds.     

One century of hydrological monitoring in two small catchments with different forest coverage

Long-term data on precipitation and runoff are essential to draw firm conclusions about the behavior and trends of hydrological catchments that may be influenced by land use and climate change. Here the longest continuous runoff records from small catchments (<1 km(2)) in Switzerland (and possibly worldwide) are reported. The history of the hydrological monitoring in the Sperbel- and Rappengraben (Emmental) is summarized, and inherent uncertainties in the data arising from the operation of the gauges are described. The runoff stations operated safely for more than 90% of the summer months when most of the major flood events occurred. Nevertheless, the absolute values of peak runoff during the largest flood events are subject to considerable uncertainty. The observed differences in average, base, and peak runoff can only partly be attributed to the substantial differences in forest coverage. This treasure trove of data can be used in various ways, exemplified here with an analysis of the generalized extreme value distributions of the two catchments. These distributions, and hence flood return periods, have varied greatly in the course of one century, influenced by the occurrence of single extreme events. The data will be made publicly available for the further analysis of the mechanisms governing the runoff behavior of small catchments, as well as for testing stochastic and deterministic models.     

Tailoring a non-path-dependent model for environmental risk management and polycentric urban land-use planning

This study attempts to develop a non-path-dependent model for environmental risk management and polycentric urban land-use planning in Gorgan Township area, Iran. Applying three suitability layers of environmental risk (soil erosion, flood risk, fire risk, and land susceptibility), urbanization potential, and integrated surface (environmental risk plus urbanization potential layers), a non-path-dependent Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model was configured to execute three scenarios of polycentric urban growth allocation. Specifically, the modeling approach improved the traditional functionality of the CA-MC model from a prediction algorithm into an innovative land allocation tool. Besides, due to its flexibility, the non-path-dependent model was able to explicitly include different characteristics of the landscape structure ranging from physical land attributes to landscape functions and processes (natural hazards). Accordingly, three polycentric urban growth allocation efforts were undertaken and compared in terms of connectivity and compactness of the resultant patterns and consumption of other land resources. Based on results, the polycentric allocation procedure based on integrated suitability layer produced a more manageable pattern of urban landscape, while the growth option based on environmental risk layer was more successful for protecting farmlands against excessive urbanization. This study suggests that polycentric urban land-use planning under the strategy of rural land development programs is an available option for designing an urban landscape with lower exposure to natural hazards and more economic benefits to rural residents. Finally, the non-path-dependent modeling is a recommended approach, when highly flexible and interactive decision-support systems as well as trend-breaking scenarios are desired.     

An assessment to prioritise the critical erosion-prone sub-watersheds for soil conservation in the Gumti basin of Tripura,North-East India

Erosion-induced land degradation problem has emerged as a serious environmental issue across the world. Assessment of this problem through modelling can generate valuable quantitative information for the planners to identify priority areas for proper soil conservation measures. The Gumti River basin of Tripura falls under humid tropical climate and experiences soil erosion for a prolonged period which has turned into a major environmental issue. Increased sediment supply through top soil erosion is one of the major reasons for reduced navigability of this river. Thus, the present study is an attempt to prioritize the sub-watersheds of the Gumti basin by estimating soil loss through the USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation) model. For that purpose, five parameters of the USLE model were processed, computed and overlaid in a GIS environment. The result shows that potential mean annual soil loss of the Gumti basin ranges between 0.03 and 114.08 t ha^?1 year^?1. The resultant values of soil loss were classified into five categories considering the minimum and maximum values. It has been identified that low, moderate, high, very high and severe soil loss categories occupy 68.71, 8.94, 5.86, 5.02 and 11.47% of the basin respectively. Moreover, it has been recognised that sub-watersheds like SW7, SW8, SW12, SW21, SW24 and SW29 fall under very high priority class for which mitigation measures are essential. Therefore, the present study recommends mitigation measures through terrace cultivation, as an alternative of shifting cultivation in the hilly areas and through construction of check dams at the appropriate sites of the erosion prone sub-watersheds. Moreover, proper afforestation programmes that have been implemented successfully in other parts of Tripura through the Japan International Cooperation Agency, Joint Forest Management, and National Afforestation Programme should be initiated in the highly erosion-prone areas of the Gumti River basin.     

Valuing Flood Risk Reductions

A choice experiment is used to estimate how Vietnamese households value a flood risk reduction. The empirical analysis is conducted on a sample of households located in the Nghe An Province, one of the provinces which is the most affected by floods in Vietnam. The results reveal that there is a high level of heterogeneity in preferences across households. We compute the willingness to pay (WTP) for a flood risk reduction, and we identify how it relates to different attributes of flood management policies (reduction of economic losses, reduction of human losses, political level in charge of implementing the flood management policy). In particular, the marginal WTP for reducing the flood fatality rate, which can be interpreted as the value of statistical life (VSL), varies from 2 517 million VND (approximately 120,818 USD) to 3 590 million VND (approximately 172,323 USD) depending on the model considered. The VSL represents between 77 and 111 times the annual household average income in our sample, a result in line with previous estimates in similar countries.     

Assessment of flood adaptive capacity of urban areas in Thailand

Urban floods have a significant impact on the economy, livelihoods, and daily activities. Despite extensive research on flood adaptation, there is a lack of consensus on ways to assess flood adaptive capacity. This research thus proposes an assessment framework of flood adaptive capacity of urban residents in flood-prone areas. The indicators are based on six components: economic resources, social capital, awareness and training, technology, infrastructure, and institutions and policies. The relevancy of the indicators was evaluated by experts in related fields, and a questionnaire was developed to collect data from a random sample of 230 households in 10 flood-prone municipalities in Thailand. Statistical analysis and structural equation modeling were subsequently performed to validate the components and indicators, and a flood-adaptability questionnaire was constructed. As a trial implementation, the questionnaire was applied to a target flood-prone municipality, Phetchaburi, to assess its adaptive capacity to flooding, expressed as flood adaptive capacity index. The adaptive capacity of Phetchaburi municipality to flooding was found to be high indicating the improvement in economic resources and infrastructure components. These findings reveal that the proposed framework is suitable for assessing the flood adaptive capacity of urban residents and useful for integrated flood risk assessment and management.     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.