A Stochastic Modeling Approach to Address Hydrogeologic Uncertainties in Modeling Wellhead Protection Boundaries in Karst Aquifers1

Abstract: Development of any numerical ground‐water model is dependent on hydrogeologic data describing the subsurface. These data are obtained from geologic core analyses, stratigraphic analyses, aquifer performance tests, and geophysical studies. But typically in remote areas, these types of data are very sparse and site‐specific in terms of the aerial extent of the resource to be modeled. Uncertainties exist as to how well the available data from a few locations defines a heterogeneous surficial aquifer such as the Biscayne Aquifer in Miami‐Dade County, Florida. This is particularly the case when an exceptionally conductive horizontal flow zone is detected at one site due to specialized testing that was not historically conducted at the other at sites that provided data for the model. Not adequately accounting for the potential effect of the high flow zone in the aquifer within a ground‐water numerical model, even though the zone may be of very limited thickness, might underpredict the well field protection capture boundaries. Applied Stochastic ground‐water modeling in determining well field protection zones is steadily becoming important in addressing the uncertainty of the hydrogeologic subsurface parameters, specifically in karstic heterogeneous aquifers. This is particularly important in addressing the uncertainty of a 60‐day travel time capture zone in the Northwest Well Field, Miami‐Dade County, where a predominantly high flow zone controls much of the flow in the production wells. A stochastic ground‐water modeling application along with combination of pilot points and regularization technique is presented to further consolidate the uncertainty of the subsurface.     

GROUND WATER/SURFACE WATER RESPONSES TO GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS,SANTA CLARA‐CALLEGUAS BASIN,VENTURA, CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara‐Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate‐driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM‐RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM‐RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.     

GROUND WATER SIMULATION USING A ONE DIMENSIONAL FLOW MODEL1

ABSTRACT: In projects involving ground water problems, dependence on the mathematical modeling of the ground water flow phenomena is inescapable. At present, two dimensional flow models, which require tremendous amounts of computer time and storage, are generally used. When such bulky models are used for planning purposes, the two requirements (computer time and storage) can severely limit the number of alternatives that can be considered. A simple quantity and quality simulation model is developed here which requires considerably less computer time and storage and gives reasonably accurate results. The model was applied to simulate a ground water basin in San Luis Rey River in Southern California. The results were compared with those obtained by a USGS model. It was found that the simple model gave results which were consistentaly within five percent of the USGS model results, while the requirements on computer time and storage were drastically reduced.     

Using SWAT to Model Streamflow in Two River Basins With Ground and Satellite Precipitation Data1

Abstract: Both ground rain gauge and remotely sensed precipitation (Next Generation Weather Radar – NEXRAD Stage III) data have been used to support spatially distributed hydrological modeling. This study is unique in that it utilizes and compares the performance of National Weather Service (NWS) rain gauge, NEXRAD Stage III, and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) 3B42 (Version 6) data for the hydrological modeling of the Middle Nueces River Watershed in South Texas and Middle Rio Grande Watershed in South Texas and northern Mexico. The hydrologic model chosen for this study is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a comprehensive, physical‐based tool that models watershed hydrology and water quality within stream reaches. Minor adjustments to selected model parameters were applied to make parameter values more realistic based on results from previous studies. In both watersheds, NEXRAD Stage III data yields results with low mass balance error between simulated and actual streamflow (±13%) and high monthly Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NS > 0.60) for both calibration (July 1, 2003 to December 31, 2006) and validation (2007) periods. In the Middle Rio Grande Watershed NEXRAD Stage III data also yield robust daily results (time averaged over a three‐day period) with NS values of (0.60‐0.88). TRMM 3B42 data generate simulations for the Middle Rio Grande Watershed of variable qualtiy (MBE = +13 to ?16%; NS = 0.38‐0.94; RMSE = 0.07‐0.65), but greatly overestimates streamflow during the calibration period in the Middle Nueces Watershed. During the calibration period use of NWS rain gauge data does not generate acceptable simulations in both watersheds. Significantly, our study is the first to successfully demonstrate the utility of satellite‐estimated precipitation (TRMM 3B42) in supporting hydrologic modeling with SWAT; thereby, potentially extending the realm (between 50°N and 50°S) where remotely sensed precipitation data can support hydrologic modeling outside of regions that have modern, ground‐based radar networks (i.e., much of the third world).     

APPLICATION OF ENHANCED ANNEALING TO GROUND WATER REMEDIATION DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for ground water remediation design has been developed that interfaces ground water simulation models with an enhanced annealing optimizer. The ground water flow and transport simulators provide the ability to consider site‐specific contamination and geohydrologic conditions directly in the assessment of alternative remediation system designs. The optimizer facilitates analysis of tradeoffs between technical, environmental, regulatory, and financial risks for alternative design and operation scenarios. A ground water management model using an optimization method referred to as “enhanced annealing” (simulated annealing enhanced to include “directional search” and “memory” mechanisms) has been developed and successfully applied to an actual restoration problem. The demonstration site is the contaminated unconfined aquifer referred to as N‐Springs located at Han‐ford, Washington. Results of the demonstration show the potential for improving groundwater restoration system performance while reducing overall system cost.     

GROUND WATER DROUGHT MANAGEMENT BY A FEEDFORWARD CONTROL METHOD1

ABSTRACT: Management of a regional ground water system to mitigate drought problems at the multi‐layered aquifer system in Collier County, Florida, is the main topic. This paper developed a feedforward control system that consists of system and control equations. The system equation, which forecasts ground water levels using the current measurements, was built based on the Kalman filter algorithm associated with a stochastic time series model. The role of the control equation is to estimate the pumping reduction rate during an anticipated drought. The control equation was built based on the empirical relationship between the change in ground water levels and the corresponding pumping requirement. The control system starts with forecasting one‐month‐ahead ground water head at each control point. The forecasted head is in turn used to calculate the deviation of ground water heads from the monthly target specified by a 2‐in‐10‐year frequency. When the forecasted water level is lower than the target, the control system computes spatially‐varied pumping reduction rates as a recommendation for ground water users. The proposed control system was tested using hypothetical droughts. The simulation result revealed that the estimated pumping reduction rates are highly variable in space, strongly supporting the idea of spatial forecasting and controlling of ground water levels as opposed to a lumped water use restriction method used previously in the model area.     

A COMPARISON OF MODELS PREDICTING GROUND WATER LEVELS ON HILLSIDE SLOPES1

ABSTRACT: A comparative study of ground water level predictions on hillside slopes using two models is presented. The models are a simplified mass balance model that has components for evapotran-spiration, recharge, and drainage; and a two-dimensional finite difference model that employs kriging to estimate soil parameters and accounts for non-uniform thickness of the soil layer. These models are representative of a wide range of modeling capabilities and are used to illustrate the sensitivity of ground water level predictions to the sophistication of the modeling techniques. The drainage and recharge components of the two models are evaluated and the importance of unsaturated flow in recharge computations is underscored. Piezometric observations in a small drainage depression on the slope of Kennel Creek Valley in Tongass National Forest, Alaska, were used to evaluate the two models. The results show that, although the predictions differ from the field observations, the simple physically-based mass balance model predicts the ground water levels as well as the two-dimensional model. It is suggested that caution should be exercised in using complex models to validate simpler models.     

SIMULATING FLOW IN REGIONAL WETLANDS WITH THE MODFLOW WETLANDS PACKAGE1

ABSTRACT: As part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), various water supply projects have been proposed in a region located between the Miami metropolitan area and the extensive regional wetland systems that are part of the Everglades or remnant Everglades. A ground water flow model of the surficial aquifer within northern Miami‐Dade County was constructed using MODFLOW to evaluate the effects of these projects on water levels in the wetlands and the underlying surficial aquifer. The new Wetlands package was used to conjunctively simulate overland flow through these wetlands and the shallow ground water system. Comparisons of simulated to measured ground water levels and wetland stages were very satisfactory, where computed and measured water levels agreed within 0.5 ft over most of the period of record at nearly all of the monitoring sites. Temporal trends in water levels were also replicated. It was concluded that the assumptions and methodologies inherent to the Wetlands package were suitable for simulating regional wetland hydrology within the Everglades area.     

STORMFLOW SIMULATION USING A GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM WITH A DISTRIBUTED APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: With the increasing availability of digital and remotely sensed data such as land use, soil texture, and digital elevation models (DEMs), geographic information systems (GIS) have become an indispensable tool in preprocessing data sets for watershed hydrologic modeling and post processing simulation results. However, model inputs and outputs must be transferred between the model and the GIS. These transfers can be greatly simplified by incorporating the model itself into the GIS environment. To this end, a simple hydrologic model, which incorporates the curve number method of rainfall‐runoff partitioning, the ground‐water base‐flow routine, and the Muskingum flow routing procedure, was implemented on the GIS. The model interfaces directly with stream network, flow direction, and watershed boundary data generated using standard GIS terrain analysis tools; and while the model is running, various data layers may be viewed at each time step using the full display capabilities. The terrain analysis tools were first used to delineate the drainage basins and stream networks for the Susquehanna River. Then the model was used to simulate the hydrologic response of the Upper West Branch of the Susquehanna to two different storms. The simulated streamflow hydrographs compare well with the observed hydrographs at the basin outlet.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT MODELING IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A modeling framework was developed to determine phosphorus loadings to Lake Okeechobee from watersheds located north of the lake. This framework consists of the land-based model CREAMS-WT, the in-stream transport model QUAL2E, and an interface procedure to format the land-based model output for use by the in-stream model. QUAL2E hydraulics and water quality routines were modified to account for flow routing and phosphorus retention in both wetlands and stream channels. Phosphorus loadings obtained from previous applications of CREAMS-WT were used by QUAL2E, and calibration and verification showed that QUAL2E accurately simulated seasonal and annual phosphorus loadings from a watershed. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicated that the accuracy of monthly loadings can be improved by using better estimates of in-stream phosphorus decay rates, ground water phosphorus concentrations, and runoff phosphorus concentrations as input to QUAL2E.     

Effects of Water Withdrawal From Ice‐Covered Lakes on Oxygen,Temperature, and Fish1

Abstract: In northern regions, large volumes of water are needed for activities such as winter road construction. Such withdrawals, particularly from small lakes, can reduce oxygen concentrations and water levels, potentially affecting aquatic organisms. Withdrawal limits have been developed by regulatory agencies, but are largely theoretical. Water withdrawal thresholds were tested in two small lakes by removing 10% and 20% of their respective under‐ice volumes and comparing oxygen parameters, temperature, over‐wintering habitat, and northern pike (Esox lucius) abundance to reference conditions. Because of a milder winter, oxygen parameters were elevated in reference lakes in the period following withdrawal compared to the prewithdrawal period. The 10% withdrawal resulted in a ?0.2 m shift in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l in that lake, but had no effect on total volume‐weighted oxygen, or volume of over‐wintering habitat. In contrast, the 20% withdrawal caused 0.7 m reduction in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l compared to the previous year, a 26% decline in the volume‐weighted oxygen concentration, and a 23% reduction in the volume of over‐wintering habitat compared to prewithdrawal conditions. Water temperatures were slightly (≤ 10%) colder in the upper strata in the year following the withdrawal in both withdrawal and reference lakes. Northern pike abundance was not impacted by water withdrawals in either of the lakes. The results of this study show that the effects of water withdrawal on the parameters investigated reflected the characteristics of the lakes, and would therefore be expected to vary from lake to lake. Policy development to mitigate impacts must therefore reflect the site‐specific nature of water withdrawal.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUND WATER IN LANSING,MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri‐County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.     

AN APPLICATION OF THE ANALYTIC ELEMENT METHOD IN MODELING FLORIDA EVERGLADES HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: The large volumes of ground water that are discharged from the Everglades toward the Miami metropolitan area have historically posed a significant environmental water supply problem. In order to analyze the effects of seepage barriers on these subsurface outflows, the analytic element modeling code GFLOW was used to construct a ground water flow model of a region that includes a portion of the Everglades along with adjacent developed areas. The hydrology of this region can be characterized by a highly transmissive surficial aquifer in hydraulic contact with wetlands and canals. Calibration of the model to both wet and dry season conditions yielded satisfactory results, and it was concluded that the analytic element method is a suitable technique for modeling ground water flow in the Everglades environment. Finally, the model was used to evaluate the potential effectiveness of a subsurface barrier approximately two miles long for increasing water levels within the adjacent fringes of the Everglades National Park. It was found that the barrier had a negligible effect on water levels due to both its relatively short length and the high transmissivity of the surficial aquifer.     

SIMULATING THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED PRECIPITATION ON GROUND WATER AND STREAMFLOW IN THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS1

ABSTRACT: The Nebraska Sand Hills have a unique hydrologic system with very little runoff and thick aquifers that constantly supply water to rivers, lakes, and wetlands. A ground water flow model was developed to determine the interactions between ground water and streamflow and to simulate the changes in ground water systems by reduced precipitation. The numerical modeling method includes a water balance model for the vadose zone and MOD‐FLOW for the saturated zone. The modeling results indicated that, between 1979 and 1990, 13 percent of the annual precipitation recharged to the aquifer and annual ground water loss by evapotranspiration (ET) was only about one‐fourth of this recharge. Ground water discharge to rivers accounts for about 96 percent of the streamflow in the Dismal and Middle Loup rivers. When precipitation decreased by half the average amount of the 1979 to 1990 period, the average decline of water table over the study area was 0.89 m, and the streamflow was about 87 percent of the present rate. This decline of the water table results in significant reductions in ET directly from ground water and so a significant portion of the streamflow is maintained by capture of the salvaged ET.     

Simulated fate and transport of metolachlor in the unsaturated zone, Maryland, USA

An unsaturated-zone transport model was used to examine the transport and fate of metolachlor applied to an agricultural site in Maryland, USA. The study site was instrumented to collect data on soil-water content, soil-water potential, ground water levels, major ions, pesticides, and nutrients from the unsaturated zone during 2002-2004. The data set was enhanced with site-specific information describing weather, soils, and agricultural practices. The Root Zone Water Quality Model was used to simulate physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring in the unsaturated zone. Model calibration to bromide tracer concentrations indicated flow occurred through the soil matrix. Simulated recharge rates were within the measured range of values. The pesticide transport model was calibrated to the intensive data collection period (2002-2004), and the calibrated model was then used to simulate the period 1984 through 2004 to examine the impact of sustained agricultural management practices on the concentrations of metolachlor and its degradates at the study site. Simulation results indicated that metolachlor degrades rapidly in the root zone but that the degradates are transported to depth in measurable quantities. Simulations indicated that degradate transport is strongly related to the duration of sustained use of metolachlor and the extent of biodegradation.     

Modeling Hydrology in a Small Rocky Mountain Watershed Serving Large Urban Populations1

Abstract: This article describes the development of a calibrated hydrologic model for the Blue River watershed (867 km²) in Summit County, Colorado. This watershed provides drinking water to over a third of Colorado’s population. However, more research on model calibration and development for small mountain watersheds is needed. This work required integration of subsurface and surface hydrology using GIS data, and included aspects unique to mountain watersheds such as snow hydrology, high ground‐water gradients, and large differences in climate between the headwaters and outlet. Given the importance of this particular watershed as a major urban drinking‐water source, the rapid development occurring in small mountain watersheds, and the importance of Rocky Mountain water in the arid and semiarid West, it is useful to describe calibrated watershed modeling efforts in this watershed. The model used was Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). An accurate model of the hydrologic cycle required incorporation of mountain hydrology‐specific processes. Snowmelt and snow formation parameters, as well as several ground‐water parameters, were the most important calibration factors. Comparison of simulated and observed streamflow hydrographs at two U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations resulted in good fits to average monthly values (0.71 Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient). With this capability, future assessments of point‐source and nonpoint‐source pollutant transport are possible.     

ADEQUACY OF SELECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION APPROXIMATIONS FOR HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: Evapotranspiration (ET) approximations, usually based on computed potential ET (PET) and diverse PET‐to‐ET conceptualizations, are routinely used in hydrologic analyses. This study presents an approach to incorporate measured (actual) ET data, increasingly available using micrometeorological methods, to define the adequacy of ET approximations for hydrologic simulation. The approach is demonstrated at a site where eddy correlation‐measured ET values were available. A baseline hydrologic model incorporating measured ET values was used to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated water levels, subsurface recharge, and surface runoff to error in four ET approximations. An annually invariant pattern of mean monthly vegetation coefficients was shown to be most effective, despite the substantial year‐to‐year variation in measured vegetation coefficients. The temporal variability of available water (precipitation minus ET) at the humid, subtropical site was largely controlled by the relatively high temporal variability of precipitation, benefiting the effectiveness of coarse ET approximations, a result that is likely to prevail at other humid sites.     

PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR A GROUND WATER MODEL1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a parameter sensitivity study of a two-dimensional flow and transport model of a contaminated site. Hydrogeological and site data from previous investigations were used for calibration. The USGS contaminant transport model (MOC) was used. After flow calibration to establish a reference model, parameters were varied to examine the effect each had on predictions of a contaminant plume. Hydrogeological parameters and a step size parameter were incrementally varied individually. Each result was compared to the reference model output to evaluate changes in concentration values and contaminant plume configuration. The study indicated that a generally predictable trend can be established for some parameters not affected by pumping or similar high stresses. Ranges were identified to relate concentration error or plume change to the amount of parameter error. Some parameter perturbations produced distorted model responses at high stress locations. Porosity and anisotropy were found to be the most influential of the model parameters studied on the plume predictions. (KEY TERMS: ground water hydrology; hydrogeology; pollution modeling; water quality; model calibration.)     

EMERGENCY WATER SUPPLIES FROM GROUND WATER IN HUMID REGIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper focuses on the development and testing of a mathematical model of an emergency ground water supply operated principally during periods of low streamflow. The process of ground water withdrawal and recharge is simulated taking account of streamflow, water demand, evapotranspiration, natural and artificial recharge and increased evapotranspiration due to artificial recharge, ground water pumpage, and streamflow contribution to pumped water. The model determines whether natural recharge is possible in less time than the return period of drought and also whether artificial recharge is needed. By simulating operation over a long period of time, the model can examine different droughts of short and long duration and can test the operating rules for ground water storage development in an area. Submodels analyze the components of the operating process including ground water flow into the stream, seepage losses, stream portion of well discharge due to induced infiltration and recharge from rainfall or water spreading. The model has been tested for areas in the humid northeastern United States.     

Integrating Large Wood Jams into Hydraulic Models: Evaluating a Porous Plate Modeling Method

Large wood (LW) jams are key riverine habitat features that affect hydraulic processes and aquatic habitat. The hydraulic influence of LW jams is poorly understood due to the complexity of fluid dynamics around irregular, porous structures. Here we validated a method for two‐dimensional hydraulic modeling of porous LW jams using the open‐source modeling software Delft3D‐FLOW. We sampled 19 LW jams at three reaches across the Columbia River Basin in the United States. We used computer‐generated porous plates to represent LW jams in the modeling software and calibrated our modeling method by comparing model outputs to measured depths and velocities at validation points. We found that modeling outputs are error‐prone when LW jams are not represented. By representing LW jams as porous plates we reduced average velocity root mean square error (RMSE) values (i.e., improved model accuracy) by 42.8% and reduced average depth RMSE values by 5.2%. These differences impacted habitat suitability index modeling. We found a 15.1% increase in weighted useable area for juvenile steelhead at one test site when LW jams were simulated vs. when they were ignored. We investigated patterns in average RMSE improvements with varying jam size, bankfull obstruction, porosity, and structure type, and river complexity. We also identified research gaps related to field estimation of LW jam porosity and porous structure modeling methods.