A Tool for Automated Load Duration Curve Creation1

Abstract: A recent study by the Texas Bacteria Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Task Force has recommended the use of load duration curves as a primary tool in calculating bacterial TMDLs. This method is attractive because it effectively integrates flow regimes into TMDL analyses, clearly communicates data through a method that is understandable to the general public, and has been successfully applied in TMDL studies in other states. To ease the creation of load duration curves, an automated load duration curve creation tool called LDCurve has been created within a Microsoft Excel framework. Web services and a webscraper are used to retrieve U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data and Texas Commission on Environmental Quality water quality data. Data are imported to the spreadsheet, combined to create flow and load duration curves, and plotted. Final steps result in a preliminary estimate of the overall load reductions needed to meet water quality standards in the modeled segment. LDCurve is currently only applicable in the state of Texas, but may be updated to model water quality throughout the nation using analogous web services from the EPA STORET database. By using automated data retrievals and computations, the LDCurve tool reduces the amount of time required to create curves and calculate load reductions to a matter of minutes. LDCurve and all supporting materials are available online for free download at: http://tools.crwr.utexas.edu/LDCurve/ .     

Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program1

Kardos, Josef S. and Christopher C. Obropta, 2011. Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1317–1337. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00591.x Abstract: Water quality modeling is a major source of scientific uncertainty in the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process. The effects of these uncertainties extend to water quality trading programs designed to implement TMDLs. This study examines the effects of water quality model uncertainty on a nutrient trading program. The study builds on previous work to design a phosphorus trading program for the Nontidal Passaic River Basin in New Jersey that would implement the watershed TMDL for total phosphorus (TP). The study identified how water quality model uncertainty affects outcomes of potential trades of TP between wastewater treatment plants. The uncertainty analysis found no evidence to suggest that the outcome of trades between wastewater treatment plants, as compared with command and control regulation, will significantly increase uncertainty in the attainment of dissolved oxygen surface water quality standards, site‐specific chlorophyll a criteria, and reduction targets for diverted TP load at potential hot spots in the watershed. Each simulated trading scenario demonstrated parity with or improvement from the command and control approach at the TMDL critical locations, and low risk of hot spots elsewhere.     

Using Spatially Detailed Water‐Quality Data and Solute‐Transport Modeling to Support Total Maximum Daily Load Development1

Walton‐Day, Katherine, Robert L. Runkel, and Briant A. Kimball, 2012. Using Spatially Detailed Water‐Quality Data and Solute‐Transport Modeling to Support Total Maximum Daily Load Development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 949‐969. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00662.x Abstract: Spatially detailed mass‐loading studies and solute‐transport modeling using OTIS (One‐dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage) demonstrate how natural attenuation and loading from distinct and diffuse sources control stream water quality and affect load reductions predicted in total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Mass‐loading data collected during low‐flow from Cement Creek (a low‐pH, metal‐rich stream because of natural and mining sources, and subject to TMDL requirements) were used to calibrate OTIS and showed spatially variable effects of natural attenuation (instream reactions) and loading from diffuse (groundwater) and distinct sources. OTIS simulations of the possible effects of TMDL‐recommended remediation of mine sites showed less improvement to dissolved zinc load and concentration (14% decrease) than did the TMDL (53‐63% decrease). The TMDL (1) assumed conservative transport, (2) accounted for loads removed by remediation by subtracting them from total load at the stream mouth, and (3) did not include diffuse‐source loads. In OTIS, loads were reduced near their source; the resulting concentration was decreased by natural attenuation and increased by diffuse‐source loads during downstream transport. Thus, by not including natural attenuation and loading from diffuse sources, the TMDL overestimated remediation effects at low flow. Use of the techniques presented herein could improve TMDLs by incorporating these processes during TMDL development.     

Stochastic Watershed Water Quality Simulation for TMDL Development – A Case Study in the Newport Bay Watershed1

Abstract: Systematic consideration of uncertainty in data, model structure, and other factors is generally unaddressed in most Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) calculations. Our previous studies developed the Management Objectives Constrained Analysis of Uncertainty (MOCAU) approach as an uncertainty analysis technique specifically for watershed water quality models, based on a synthetic case. In this study, we applied MOCAU to analyze diazinon loading in the Newport Bay watershed (Southern California). The study objectives included (1) demonstrating the value of performing stochastic simulation and uncertainty analysis for TMDL development, using MOCAU as the technique and (2) evaluating the existing diazinon TMDL and generating insights for the development of scientifically sound TMDLs, considering uncertainty. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used as an example of a complex watershed model. The study revealed the importance and feasibility of conducting stochastic watershed water quality simulation for TMDL development. The critical role of management objectives in a systematic uncertainty assessment was well demonstrated. The results of this study are intuitive to TMDL calculation, model structure improvement and sampling strategy design.     

Assessing Uncertainty in Estimates of Nitrogen Loading to Estuaries for Research, Planning, and Risk Assessment

Parametric (propagation for normal error estimates) and nonparametric methods (bootstrap and enumeration of combinations) to assess the uncertainty in calculated rates of nitrogen loading were compared, based on the propagation of uncertainty observed in the variables used in the calculation. In addition, since such calculations are often based on literature surveys rather than random replicate measurements for the site in question, error propagation was also compared using the uncertainty of the sampled population (e.g., standard deviation) as well as the uncertainty of the mean (e.g., standard error of the mean). Calculations for the predicted nitrogen loading to a shallow estuary (Waquoit Bay, MA) were used as an example. The previously estimated mean loading from the watershed (5,400 ha) to Waquoit Bay (600 ha) was 23,000 kg N yr⁻¹. The mode of a nonparametric estimate of the probability distribution differed dramatically, equaling only 70% of this mean. Repeated observations were available for only 8 of the 16 variables used in our calculation. We estimated uncertainty in model predictions by treating these as sample replicates. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the standard error of the mean loading rate were 12–14%. However, since the available data include site-to-site variability, as is often the case, standard error may be an inappropriate measure of confidence. The standard deviations were around 38% of the loading rate. Further, 95% confidence intervals differed between the nonparametric and parametric methods, with those of the nonparametric method arranged asymmetrically around the predicted loading rate. The disparity in magnitude and symmetry of calculated confidence limits argue for careful consideration of the nature of the uncertainty of variables used in chained calculations. This analysis also suggests that a nonparametric method of calculating loading rates using most frequently observed values for variables used in loading calculations may be more appropriate than using mean values. These findings reinforce the importance of including assessment of uncertainty when evaluating nutrient loading rates in research and planning. Risk assessment, which may need to consider relative probability of extreme events in worst-case scenarios, will be in serious error using normal estimates, or even the nonparametric bootstrap. A method such as our enumeration of combinations produces a more reliable distribution of risk.     

ESTIMATING TMDL BACKGROUND SUSPENDED SEDIMENT LOADING TO GREAT LAKES TRIBUTARIES FROM EXISTING DATA1

ABSTRACT: The total maximum daily load (TMDL) for suspended sediment is the maximum quantity of suspended sediment that can enter a waterway without affecting the beneficial uses of the waterway. It is calculated as the sum of permissible allotments of point sources of suspended sediment, permissible allotments of nonpoint sources of suspended sediment, background (natural) loading of suspended sediment, and a margin of safety. The goal of this project was to develop methods for estimating background levels of sediment loads in tributaries of the Great Lakes. Such quantification is key to determining permissible TMDL in waters that do not meet water quality standards under the Clean Water Act of 1972. Suspended sediment loading for 46 rivers was estimated from data collected at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gages. Land use and physiographic attributes were estimated for these gaged basins with a geographic information system (GIS). Basin attributes and sediment yield data are the basis for examining two approaches to estimating background suspended sediment loads. One method, based upon envelope curves of sediment yield and drainage area, will be shown to have considerable merit. A second method, based upon correlation of sediment yield to various basin attributes such as drainage area and land use, will be shown to be fraught with difficulties.     

Effects of Urbanization on Flow Duration and Stream Flashiness: A Case Study of Puget Sound Streams,Western Washington,USA

The overall influence of urbanization on how flows of different frequency might change over time, while important in hydrologic design, remains imprecisely known. In this study, we investigate the effects of urbanization on flow duration curves (FDCs) and flow variability through a case study of eight watersheds that underwent different amounts of growth, in the Puget Sound region in Western Washington State, United States. We computed annual FDCs from flow records spanning 1960‐2010 and, after accounting for the effects of precipitation, we conducted statistical trend analyses on flow metrics to quantify how key FDC percentiles changed with time in response to urbanization. In the urban watersheds, the entire FDC tended to increase in magnitude of flow, especially the 95th‐99th percentile of the daily mean flow series, which increased by an average of 43%. Stream flashiness in urban watersheds was found to increase by an average of 70%. The increases in FDC magnitude and flashiness in urbanizing watersheds are most likely a result of increasing watershed imperviousness and altered hydrologic routing. Rural watersheds were found to have decreasing FDC magnitude over the same time period, which is possibly due to anthropogenic extractions of groundwater, and increasing stream flashiness, which is likely a result of reductions in base flow and increasing precipitation intensity and variability.     

TMDL Implementation in Agricultural Landscapes: A Communicative and Systemic Approach

Increasingly, total maximum daily load (TMDL) limits are being defined for agricultural watersheds. Reductions in non-point source pollution are often needed to meet TMDL limits, and improvements in management of annual crops appear insufficient to achieve the necessary reductions. Increased adoption of perennial crops and other changes in agricultural land use also appear necessary, but face major barriers. We outline a novel strategy that aims to create new economic opportunities for land-owners and other stakeholders and thereby to attract their voluntary participation in land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Our strategy has two key elements. First, focused efforts are needed to create new economic enterprises that capitalize on the productive potential of multifunctional agriculture (MFA). MFA seeks to produce a wide range of goods and ecosystem services by well-designed deployment of annual and perennial crops across agricultural landscapes and watersheds; new revenue from MFA may substantially finance land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Second, efforts to capitalize on MFA should use a novel methodology, the Communicative/Systemic Approach (C/SA). C/SA uses an integrative GIS-based spatial modeling framework for systematically assessing tradeoffs and synergies in design and evaluation of multifunctional agricultural landscapes, closely linked to deliberation and design processes by which multiple stakeholders can collaboratively create appropriate and acceptable MFA landscape designs. We anticipate that application of C/SA will strongly accelerate TMDL implementation, by aligning the interests of multiple stakeholders whose active support is needed to change agricultural land use and thereby meet TMDL goals.     

Development of bacteria and benthic total maximum daily loads: a case study, Linville Creek, Virginia

Two total maximum daily load (TMDL) studies were performed for Linville Creek in Rockingham County, Virginia, to address bacterial and benthic impairments. The TMDL program is an integrated watershed management approach required by the Clean Water Act. This paper describes the procedures used by the Center for TMDL and Watershed Studies at Virginia Tech to develop the Linville Creek TMDLs and discusses the key lessons learned from and the ramifications of the procedures used in these and other similar TMDL studies. The bacterial impairment TMDL was developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF). Fecal coliform loads were estimated through an intensive source characterization process. The benthic impairment TMDL was developed using the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model and the reference watershed approach. The bacterial TMDL allocation scenario requires a 100% reduction in cattle manure direct-deposits to the stream, a 96% reduction in nonpoint-source loadings to the land surface, and a 95% reduction in wildlife direct-deposits to the stream. Sediment was identified as the primary benthic stressor. The TMDL allocation scenario for the benthic impairment requires an overall reduction of 12.3% of the existing sediment loads. Despite the many drawbacks associated with using watershed-scale models like HSPF and GWLF to develop TMDLs, the detailed watershed and pollutant-source characterization required to use these and similar models creates information that stakeholders need to select appropriate corrective measures to address the cause of the water quality impairment when implementing the TMDL.     

POLLUTANT LOADING CAPACITY FOR THE BLACK RWER,CHEHALIS RWER SYSTEM,WASHINGTON1

ABSTRACT: The Black River, a tributary of the Chehalis River in western Washington State, has a history of widespread low dissolved oxygen (DO), anoxia in some locations, and fish kills. As part of a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) study, environmental data were collected during two summer dry seasons and simulations were conducted with the WASP5 model to assess the effect of biochemical oxygen demand ( BOD ), ammonia, and nutrient loads on DO in the Black River. DO levels were below the State water quality regulatory criterion of 8.0 mg/L in almost all locations during the study. The slow middle reach of the river showed stratified conditions, with anoxia in some of the deepest pools. Based on model simulations, DO was found to still fall below the 8.0 mg/L criterion in the entire mainstem under “natural” conditions, and eutrophication was identified as a potential problem in the middle reach. A TMDL was proposed for BOD and ammonia that would prevent significant degradation of DO in the Black River. To prevent eutrophic conditions in the Black River, a TMDL for total phosphorus was proposed that establishes a protective criterion of 0.05 mg/L for the middle river during the dry low-flow season.     

SETTING AN EFFECTIVE TMDL: SEDIMENT LOADING AND EFFECTS OF SUSPENDED SEDIMENT ON FISR1

ABSTRACT: The Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport model was used to examine the relationship between fish and suspended sediment in the context of a proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) in two agricultural watersheds in Minnesota. During a 50‐year simulation, Wells Creek, a third‐order cold water stream, had an estimated 1,164 events (i.e., one or more consecutive days of estimated sediment loading) and the Chippewa River, a fourth‐order warm water stream, had 906 events of measurable suspended sediment. Sublethal thresholds were exceeded for 970 events and lethal levels for 194 events for brown trout in Wells Creek, whereas adult nonsalmonids would have experienced sublethal levels for 923 events and lethal levels for 241 events. Sublethal levels were exceeded for 756 events and lethal thresholds were exceeded for 150 events in the Chippewa River. Nonsalmonids would have experienced 15 events of mortality between 0 and 20 percent in Wells Creek. In the Chippewa River, there were 35 events of mortality between 0 and 20 percent and one event in which mortality could have exceeded 20 percent. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has proposed listing stream reaches as being impaired for turbidity at 25 NTU, which is approximately 46 mg suspended sediment/1. We estimated that 46 mg/1 would be exceeded approximately 30 days in a year (d/yr) in both systems. A TMDL of 46 mg SS/1 may be too high to ensure that stream fishes are not negatively affected by suspended sediment. We recommend that an indicator incorporating the duration of exposure be applied.     

Concentration‐Duration‐Frequency Curves for Stream Turbidity: Possibilities for Assessing Biological Impairment1

Abstract: Siltation and subsequent biological impairment is a national problem prompting state regulatory agencies to develop sediment total maximum daily loads (TMDL) for many streams. To support TMDL targets for reduced sediment yield in disturbed watersheds, a critical need exists for stream assessments to identify threshold concentrations of suspended sediment that impact aquatic biota. Because of the episodic nature of stream sediment transport, thresholds should not only be a function of sediment concentration, but also of duration and dose frequency. Water quality sondes can collect voluminous amounts of turbidity data, a surrogate for suspended sediment, at intervals that can be used to characterize concentration, duration, and frequency of elevated turbidity events. To characterize turbidity sonde data in an ecologically relevant manner, a methodology for concentration‐duration‐frequency (CDF) curves was developed using turbidity doses that relate to different levels of biological impairment. To illustrate this methodology, turbidity CDF curves were generated for two sites on Little Pigeon River in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee, using over 30,000 sonde data measurements per site for a one‐year period. Utilizing a Poisson arrival approach, turbidity spikes were analyzed stochastically by observing the frequency and duration of recorded events over a turbidity level that relates to a biological dose response. An exponential equation was used to fit duration and frequency of a specified turbidity level to generate concentric‐shaped CDF curves, where at specific turbidities longer durations occurred less frequently and conversely shorter durations occurred more frequently. The significance of the equation fit to the data was accomplished with a Kolmogorov‐Smirnov goodness‐of‐fit test. Our findings showed that the CDF curves derived by an exponential function performed reasonable well, with most curves significant at a 95% confidence level. These CDF curves were then used to demonstrate how they could be used to assess biological impairment, and identify future research needs for improved development of sediment TMDLs.     

Improving the TMDL Process Using Watershed Risk Assessment Principles

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) evaluates potential causal relationships between multiple sources and stressors and impacts on valued ecosystem components. ERAs applied at the watershed scale have many similarities to the place-based analyses that are undertaken to develop Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs), in which linkages are established between stressors, sources, and water quality standards, including support of designated uses. TMDLs focus on achieving water quality standards associated with attainment of designated uses. In attempting to attain the water quality standard, many TMDLs focus on the stressor of concern rather than the ecological endpoint or indicators of the designated use that the standard is meant to protect. A watershed ecological risk assessment (WERA), at least in theory, examines effects of most likely stressors, as well as their probable sources in the watershed, to prioritize management options that will most likely result in meeting environmental goals or uses. Useful WERA principles that can be applied to TMDL development include: development and use of comprehensive conceptual models in the Problem Identification step of TMDLs; use of a transparent process for selecting Numeric Targets for TMDLs based on assessment endpoints derived from the management goal or designated use under consideration; analysis of co-occurring stressors likely to cause beneficial use impairment based on the conceptual model; use of explicit uncertainty analyses in the Linkage Analysis step of TMDL development; and frequent stakeholder interactions throughout the process. WERA principles are currently most applicable to those TMDLs in which there is no numeric standard and, therefore, indicators and targets need to be developed, such as many nutrient or sediment TMDLs. WERA methods can also be useful in determining TMDL targets in situations where simply targeting the water quality standard may re-attain the numeric criterion but not the broader designated use. Better incorporation of problem formulation principles from WERA into the TMDL development process would be helpful in improving the scientific rigor of TMDLs.     

Magnitude,Frequency, and Duration Relations for Suspended Sediment in Stable (“Reference”) Southeastern Streams1

Abstract: Sediment is listed as one of the leading causes of water‐quality impairments in surface waters of the United States (U.S.). A water body becomes listed by a State, Territory or Tribe if its designated use is not being attained (i.e., impaired). In many cases, the prescribed designated use is aquatic health or habitat, indicating that total maximum daily loads (TMDL) targets for sediment should be functionally related to this use. TMDL targets for sediment transport have been developed for many ecoregions over the past several years using suspended‐sediment yield as a metric. Target values were based on data from “reference” streams or reaches, defined as those exhibiting geomorphic characteristics of equilibrium. This approach has proved useful to some states developing TMDLs for suspended sediment, although one cannot conclude that if a stream exceeds the target range, the aquatic ecosystem will be adversely impacted. To address this problem, historical flow‐transport and sediment‐transport data from hundreds of sites in the Southeastern U.S. were re‐examined to develop parameters (metrics) such as frequency and duration of sediment concentrations. Sites determined as geomorphically stable from field evaluations and from analysis of gauging‐station records were sorted by ecoregion. Mean‐daily flow data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey were applied to sediment‐transport rating relations to determine suspended‐sediment load for each day of record. The frequency and duration that a given concentration was equaled or exceeded were then calculated to produce a frequency distribution for each site. “Reference” distributions were created using the stable sites in each ecoregion by averaging all of the distributions at specified exceedance intervals. As with the “reference” suspended‐sediment yields, there is a broad range of frequency and duration distributions that reflects the hydrologic and sediment‐transport regimes of the ecoregions. Ecoregions such as the Mississippi Valley Loess Plains (#74) maintain high suspended sediment concentrations for extended periods, whereas coastal plain ecoregions (#63 and 75) show much lower concentrations.     

A NEW LOOK AT FLOOD RISK DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented.     

TMDL中MOS的定量估算方法及其应用

为了分析TMDL水污染控制管理模式中安全临界值MOS的影响因素,采用FOEA法对MOS中模拟计算的不确定性进行定量估算,通过不同水质达标率条件下MOS的设定,探讨水环境管理中不确定性因素对MOS的影响;将TMDL应用于珠江三角洲佛山水道的水环境管理中,运用动态水环境数学模型、考虑潮周期达标率的环境容量优化模型及遗传算法对TMDL进行求解.研究结果表明,所采用的FOEA法能较为准确地反映模型的不确定性对MOS的影响,而且从水质达标率的角度出发能合理地考察环境管理中的不确定性因素对MOS的影响,为定量化探讨MOS的设定给出了可行的求解思路及方法.     

Roles of land use resolution and unit-area load rates in assessment of diffuse nutrient emissions

In contrast to its counterparts in Europe and North America, the Australian National Pollutant Inventory (NPI) includes estimates of aggregated emissions of nutrients (total nitrogen and total phosphorus) from catchments and facilities. Sparse or inadequate data limit the extent to which nutrient exports may be estimated from direct observations. The paucity of data for calibration and simulation limits the use of sophisticated models in most Australian catchments. Therefore, a simple unit-area load model-Catchment Management Support System (CMSS)-was selected to estimate aggregated catchment emissions for the NPI. Estimates from models like CMSS are sensitive to spatial and categorical resolution of land uses identified within the catchment and to nutrient generation rates selected for each land use category. Using three Hawkesbury-Nepean subcatchments, we show that while high spatial resolution of land use mapping is useful, only four or five major land use categories with carefully selected generation rates were required to estimate potential nutrient exports sufficiently well and to determine subcatchments contributing most. Nutrient emission estimates proved to be highly dependent on selection of generation rates so a bootstrap technique was adopted to reduce subjectivity and to improve estimates of confidence limits. This led to a specification of new generation rates for Natural, Unimproved pasture, Rural and Urban land uses and to establishment of uncertainty limits.     

Stakeholder Analysis of a Collaborative Watershed Management Process: A Florida Case Study1

Borisova, Tatiana, Laila Racevskis, and Jennison Kipp, 2012. Stakeholder Analysis of a Collaborative Watershed Management Process: A Florida Case Study. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 277‐296. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00615.x Abstract: This study focuses on a Florida watershed where development of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) and its implementation plan resulted in conflicts among stakeholders. The overall goal is to build a better understanding of stakeholder perceptions of water quality problems, water policy processes and decisions, and water management plan development in a region where these issues have become contentious. Findings are based on a stakeholder analysis using qualitative data collected through focus groups with agricultural producers, local governments, and environmental groups, and supplemented with additional qualitative data on the watershed management process. Stakeholder conflicts in this case study are associated with perceived flaws in the structural and procedural characteristics of the stakeholder involvement process: (1) suboptimal watershed stakeholder representation on the TMDL executive committee, (2) an inappropriate voting procedure for making TMDL decisions, (3) limitations in information sharing between regulatory agencies and watershed stakeholders, and (4) stakeholders’ doubts about whether tradeoffs associated with achieving the water quality targets were assessed adequately throughout the TMDL planning and implementation process. This study contributes to the literature on collaborative watershed management by analyzing stakeholder involvement given Florida’s unique institutional settings, where implementation of TMDL pollution abatement is mandatory.     

TMDL Balance: A Model for Coastal Water Pollutant Loadings

Bacterial contamination accounts for more than 60% of the impairments included on the 2008 Texas 303(d) List. Many of these bacterial impairments are along the Texas Gulf Coast because coastal waters often are regulated for oyster harvesting, which have strict water quality standards. Under the Clean Water Act, each one of these impaired waterbodies requires a total maximum daily load (TMDL) study to be performed. A recent, statewide study recommended the development and application of simple modeling approaches to address the majority of Texas's bacteria TMDLs, including “… simple load duration curve, GIS [geographic information systems], and/or mass balance models.” We developed the TMDL Balance model in response to this recommendation. TMDL Balance is a steady state, mass balance, GIS‐based model for simulating pollutant loads and concentrations in coastal systems. The model uses plug‐flow reactor and continuously‐stirred tank reactor equations to route spatially distributed point and nonpoint source loads through a watershed via overland flow, non‐tidal flow, and tidal flow, decaying the loads via first‐order kinetics. In this paper, we explain the development of the watershed loading portion of the TMDL Balance model, demonstrating the methodology through a case study: computing bacterial loads in the Copano Bay watershed of southeast Texas. The application highlights an example of distributing bacterial sources spatially based on land use data.     

GROUPWISE MODELING STUDY OF BACTERIALLY IMPAIRED WATERSHEDS IN TEXAS: CLUSTERING ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Under the Clean Water Act (CWA) program, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) listed 110 stream segments in the year 2000 with pathogenic bacteria impairment. A study was conducted to evaluate the probable sources of pollution and characterize the watersheds associated with these impaired water bodies. The primary aim of the study was to group the water bodies into clusters having similar watershed characteristics and to examine the possibility of studying them as a group by choosing models for total maximum daily load (TMDL) development based on their characteristics. This approach will help to identify possible sources and determine appropriate models and hence reduce the number of required TMDL studies. This in turn will help in reducing the effort required to restore the health of the impaired water bodies in Texas. The main characteristics considered for the classification of water bodies were land use distribution within the watershed, density of stream network, average distance of land of a particular use to the closest stream, household population, density of on‐site sewage facilities (OSSFs), bacterial loading from different types of farm animals and wildlife, and average climatic conditions. The climatic data and observed instream fecal coliform bacteria concentrations were analyzed to evaluate seasonal variability of instream water quality. The grouping of water bodies was carried out using the multivariate statistical techniques of factor analysis/principal component analysis, cluster analysis, and discriminant analysis. The multivariate statistical analysis resulted in six clusters of water bodies. The main factors that differentiated the clusters were found to be bacterial contribution from farm animals and wildlife, density of OSSFs, density of households connected to public sewers, and land use distribution.